Stage 4: Giovinazzo > Bari – 112 km
As expected, Stage 3 ended in a bunch sprint. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen delivered an excellent leadout to teammate Ben Swift, and Cannondale’s Elia Viviani did his best to match Swift’s acceleration in the final straight, but Marcel Kittel came up along the side of the road and blew past everyone at the last moment. With a hundred kilometers to go he was several bike lengths behind Swift, EBH, and Viviani, but no head start could keep him from powering to victory. If it wasn’t clear enough already, Kittel showed on Stage 3 that he is miles ahead of the other sprinters in this race.
The Giro d’Italia moves into Italy for Stage 4. The peloton sets out from coastal Giovinazzo and takes a circuitous route that eventually winds southeast towards the town of Bari. After around 45 kilometers on the road, they’ll reach their destination, where they will kick off eight laps of 8.3 kilometers around the town. That makes for a grand total of just 112 kilometers. The very short day on the bike will be an extremely pacey affair. A technical circuit with some wicked twists and turns in the last two kilometers will make it crucial to be in good position before the final moments of the race. However, there isn’t anything even resembling a categorized climb on the menu; the country may have changed, but it looks almost guaranteed that the riders fighting for those final corners will again be the same sprinters we’ve seen at the fore for the last few days.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll point out that Marcel Kittel is again the huge favorite to take a sprint finish. He proved Sunday that he’s just too fast right now even when caught well out of position in the bunch gallop. I don’t think it’s likely that his rivals will get that kind of opportunity again. This finish is not completely suited to his skillset, as late turns will not allow power guys like Kittel to make full use of their top speed, but I’m not sure that will matter for the points jersey wearer. Luka Mezgec remains the strong second option for Giant-Shimano.
UPDATE: Marcel Kittel has abandoned the race due to a fever. His absence will give some of the other riders we’ve seen at the front the opportunity to contend for the win instead of runner-up honors. Luka Mezgec becomes the go-to rider for GSH, and a strong option at that.
Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani are again my two favorites to take on Kittel. This technical circuit suits Bouhanni very well: he’s very aggressive in a fight for position and isn’t afraid to take risks on the corners. That will be of paramount importance in the Stage 4 finale. If he can force his way into position for the last bends in the road, he has a shot at making the quick acceleration to the line in the final straight. Cannondale’s Viviani might be a bit more favored on a course ending with a longer drag, but he’s fast enough right now that he is still a top contender here. Cannondale continues to get to the front early; such a decision will make a little more sense on Stage 4, and if they can improve their timing just a bit they’ll be able to set him up nicely.
Sky’s Ben Swift was so close to victory in Stage 3, and his performance their suggests that he really can duke it out with the fastest guys here. Having such an elite leadout man in Edvald Boasson Hagen helps. With EBH to guide him on Stage 4, Swift is again a contender, especially with a very slightly uphill finish. I’m also not going to rule Sky flipping the script and backing Boasson Hagen one of these days. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo also has a very fast leadout (Danilo Hondo and Boy van Poppel), and he won’t mind a tiny incline either. His biggest challenge lately (and not just in this race) has been positioning. I’m interested to see what he can do when he actually gets himself into the perfect spot to launch his move, because in recent contests he has so often been just a little out of place in the final moments.
Maglia Rosa wearer Michael Matthews hasn’t been able to land in the Top 5 of a sprint just yet but a shorter finishing straight could suit him better. Alessandro Petacchi looked a bit more interested in Stage 3 than he was in Stage 2; he’s actually sitting 2nd in the GC right now, so maybe he’ll try for the victory and the bonus seconds in attempt to wear pink on Stage 5. AG2R’s Davide Appollonio outclassed some bigger names on Stage 3 and will look to do so again, though he’s somewhat disadvantaged by a lesser leadout. Same goes for Roberto Ferrari. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Neri Sottoli’s Francesco Chicchi, Androni Giacattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Europcar’s Tony Hurel, and Belkin’s Jetse Bol are other likely protagonists.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Elia Viviani
UPDATE: With Kittel out, Bouhanni slides into the driver’s seat of VH favorite with Viviani very close behind. I’ll name Giacomo Nizzolo as 3rd favorite.
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! You’ll also see plenty of tweets about the Tour of California, which kicked off with an exciting opening stage on Sunday and continues today with an important individual time trial. I am not doing previews for California, but if you’re looking for picks you’ll find them on Twitter.
The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 5 will be up not long after the Stage 4 finish. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.
-Dane Cash
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