Stage 5: Priego de Córdoba › Ronda – 180 km
After a Stage 4 won convincingly in a bunch sprint by John Degenkolb, Stage 5 of the Vuelta a España looks likely to be another one for the bunch gallopers. The pack will set out from Priego de Córdoba and then take on 150 kilometers without a single categorized climb before reaching the bottom of a lone Category 3. It’s a long uphill ride at 12.5 kilometers, but the average gradient is only a bit over 3%. From the top, it’s about 15 kilometers, mostly on a gentle downhill and without too many twists or turns, to the town of Ronda. The finishing straight is a little over half a kilometer in length, and very subtly uphill.
With a mountain stage looming, the sprinters will hope for one more chance at glory on Stage 5 before things start to get too difficult on the road. Their teams shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping things under control on this profile, and the day’s solitary categorized challenge isn’t particularly steep; it will be hard for anyone to get enough separation on the climb to hold out over a long flat run to the line. That said, it’s likely that some of the heavier sprinters could but put under a bit of pressure if the pace is high going over the Cat. 3; it’s not a legbreaker but riding on an incline for over 10 kilometers in this heat is not a comfortable trip for anyone.
Given the likelihood of a bunch finish, Stage 5 should come down to a high-speed showdown between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. With a slight gradient in the final few hundred meters and fewer technical challenges in the run-in than were present on Stage 2 (challenges that might give the tenacious Bouhanni the positioning advantage), this looks like a good opportunity for Degenkolb to challenge the young Frenchman. Degenkolb will need every ounce of power he has, but he blew away the field on Stage 4, showing just how strong he is right now.
Michael Matthews is a fast finisher in any scenario and the very slight incline in the finale could give him an edge here. Astana’s Andrea Guardini had a great run-up to this Vuelta and in a sprinters’ battle royale, he’s a contender. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is still gaining experience in the positioning game, but he beat both Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this year’s Paris-Nice and he looks strong right now, and Stage 5’s finish should suit him.
Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari is not one of the more versatile quick men in the pack, but if he can make it over the Cat. 3 without too much trouble, he should be in the mix as well for stage honors. In Maximiliano Richeze and Filippo Pozzato, Lampre does have an impressive squad of supporters or possible alternatives. IAM Cycling has a pair of nice options in Matteo Pelucchi and Stage 4 2nd place finisher Vicente Reynes. The list of other outside contenders for what is likely to be a sprint finish also includes Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Yauheni Hutarovich, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, and Lloyd Mondory.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Michael Matthews
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned.
-Dane Cash
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