Day 19: The Finale Is Here
Stages 15, 16, and 17 showcased some awesome cycling. After a Sagan-led breakaway took the intermediate sprint early in the day, the heavy hitters caught up with them as the road started going up, and Sky’s dynamic duo laid waste to the best climbers in the world on the way up. By the time Porte pulled off, few were left to contest the day, and soon it was a battle royale between Froome and the young challenger Nairo Quintana. Quintana made a brave effort, but Froome matched every attack and then dropped him. The yellow jersey winner finished first, and in the process, he gained back much of what time he had lost to the other favorites in the crosswinds a few days before. Purito Rodriguez zoomed past Contador on the slopes to take fourth, crossing the line with an impressive Mikel Nieve (who is now the only guy focusing solely on the KoM competition that actually has a shot) to show that his form has arrived. Most of the other contenders for the top 10 of General Classification rolled in close together, though this was the stage that finally ended any hopes past winners Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck had of finishing among those ten. Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq deserves a mention for finishing 11th, ahead of some big names like Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin.
Stage 16 was predictably unpredictable, a day for the breakaway, and as usual, many of the big breakaway types jumped and many didn’t do anything at all (I’m looking at you, Gerrans, Clarke, and Chavanel). Rui Costa, whose GC hopes were smashed when Movistar sent him back to (fruitlessly) help Valverde back when said team leader was getting gapped by the peloton in the crosswinds, got into the break and, once there, realized that he was easily the best man in the best form in the bunch. He attacked on the final climb and stayed away for the win, well-earned. But there was also some real action going on further back in the race, where Katusha attacked on the same climb when they reached it several minutes later. They were matched by a group with most of the big contenders, but they left behind the likes of Laurens Ten Dam, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and Michael Rogers for a final gap of about a minute.
Stage 17 threatened to be extremely dangerous, what with a technical descent and a nasty, rainy forecast, but for the most part, the big names emerged unscathed, except for Jean-Christophe Peraud, who fractured his collar bone in a recon ride crash, raced anyway, and then crashed and fell onto the same side during the time trial, forcing him to abandon. Froome won the day rather predictably, but Contador wasn’t off by much, and (of the potential podium contenders) neither were Quintana, Kreuziger, or Joaquim Rodriguez. Unfortunately for him and Dutch fans everywhere, Bauke Mollema, typically a very good time trialist, finished a full two minutes down on Alberto Contador, with whom he had been vying for second place. The Dutch rider slides into fourth following the bad day.
Heading into the Tour’s big three Alpine stages, Froome has a gap of over four and a half minutes on Contador and Kreuziger, who themselves have roughly two minutes on Mollema and Quintana, with Rodriguez half a minute back from that. It is hard to see any other riders than these making it onto the General Classification podium in Paris.
Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish
The long-awaited double climb of Alpe-d’Huez is finally here. The peloton will take on an early Cat 2, and then a Cat 3 before the feed station, and then the Category 2 Col d’Ornon and a descent to the intermediate sprint, before they finally begin the steep slopes of Alpe-d’Huez. After reaching the summit, the riders must climb the short but steep Col de Sarenne, a Cat 2, before strapping in for a steep, dangerous descent. After almost 30km of mostly downhill roads, the riders must climb Alpe-d’Huez one more time. A brutal day, for sure, and one that will offer many opportunities for attacks to stick and gaps to form. Team Sky will face relentless attacks from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, and down a few men, they may struggle to control the race. Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez have both had a very strong three days in the saddle, and after disappointing Dauphiné’s from both, it seems the form is finally there. Contador’s second-in-command Roman Kreuziger has yet to falter by his leader’s side as well. Meanwhile, Bauke Mollema seems to be fading at the worst possible time. After a valiant first two weeks, I do not know how much Belkin has left in the tank.
Froome has had fun winning three stages this Tour while he ups his lead overall, but I think he knows he shouldn’t take his eyes off the real prize, which may mean finally riding a bit more conservatively on this dangerous stage. At nearly seven minutes down, Quintana would need to pick up serious ground to pass Froome for the yellow jersey. Ergo, Froome will be more concerned about Contador and Kreuziger than the young Movistar rider, and that favors Quintana attacking for the stage. Don’t be surprised to see another climbing specialist let out ahead as well, Mikel Nieve. Nieve crested Ax 3 Domaines sixth and Mont Ventoux third: he is quite capable of handling the long slogs toward the sky, and far more so than Quintana, he doesn’t pose a threat to Froome. If Nieve can stay on the right wheels and make it through the first 160 km of the race with the pack, he has a fine shot of getting up to the summit finish first or second. Or maybe Froome doesn’t give anyone any breathing room, as has been his M.O. throughout the Tour so far. In any case, I don’t know that I see Rodriguez or Valverde liking the long ascents as best fitting their abilities. Kreuziger might be well positioned to attack on the Sarenne and then fly down the mountainside with his best-of-the-bunch descending skills, but he has stuck close by Contador’s side so far this year, so such an attack would only be called for as a strategic move to put pressure on Froome rather than as a way for Kreuziger himself to advance, and it seems likely that such a move would get swallowed up on the final ascent.
VeloHuman Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador | 4. Roman Kreuziger
Watch Out For
Mikel Nieve
Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains
With two Hors Categorie climbs in the first half of the day and then three more categorized climbs before the finish (a Cat 2 and then a pair of Cat 1s), stage 19 could completely ruin the top 10 hopes of any rider whose legs are starting to falter at this stage of the Tour. Those feeling fresh will surely put the hammer down early to weaken the field quickly. Laurens Ten Dam has been a real surprise so far this Tour, but this is the sort of day that could crack his admirable resolve. Roman Kreuziger and Daniel Martin are both climbers who have had great career successes on single day races and short stage races (each taking an Ardennes Classic this spring), but days like this after nearly three weeks of racing are the sort of thing that separate the classics guys from the winners of the Grand Tours. Given his unassailable dominance so far, I think Froome will pass the long test. With a strong team around him, Contador should be right there with the captain of Team Sky at the end of the day, and I do think Kreuziger will be there with him. In fact, the race’s finish, over 10 km of steep descent, favors the aggressive Czech rider. If he makes it to the final climb and is able to perform his duties as Contador’s lieutenant most of the way up, Kreuziger could use his Ardennes-proven talent for sharp attacks and then descend at full speed for the win. With that descent, there is also potential for a very select group to finish together, and a sprint among climbers is exactly what Alejandro Valverde will aim for to at least salvage something from his unfortunate Tour de France experience. Joaquim Rodriguez, too, would surely love to take a shot at it, either near the summit of the final climb, or in the final sprint. If Kwiatkowski is still here, it’s a great last few hundred meters for him, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to hang on all day without much of a team for help. Gaps are likely to be small or nonexistent, so if a group of heavy hitters reaches the final climb together, I imagine Froome will be content to roll over the line with them rather than attempting to push his luck descending or sprinting, which are not his forte.
VeloHuman Favorites
1. Roman Kreuziger | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Chris Froome
Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish
At only 125 kilometers, the penultimate stage of the Tour will be ridden lightning fast. Climbers who have yet to make their marks with a stage win will be attacking and counter-attacking like mad here, and the GC types will be focused on making it through without losing ground in the chaos of six categorized climbs, including an HC summit finish. I would imagine we will again see Mikel Nieve trying to get ahead for mountain points, but there will likely be a number of chasers for every attack. Anyone close to the podium, especially Alberto Contador, who doesn’t like to settle for second place, will have until the final summit to attack the man in yellow. Lots of action, but I see Froome cresting the summit before anyone. It’s the last climber’s stage of the Tour, and Froome won’t need to worry about storing energy for any more Alpine climbs. I imagine any long-range attacks from lesser riders will be reeled in by those higher up the ladder who don’t want to lose their places, and I imagine the legitimate volleys from those challenging for the podium will ultimately be answered by Froome, who has just been so much better than his competitors so far. And if the other contenders have managed to close the gap by this stage? Well what better place than a summit finish for the Tour’s best diesel climber to make his final statement? He reached the top of Ax 3-Domaines first, he reached the top of Ventoux first, and with almost thirty kilometers of downhill racing leading into the final climb to catch any breakaways, I imagine Froome will reach the top of the Semnoz first as well, though I expect everything Contador and Quintana have to give on the way up.
VeloHuman Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Alberto Contador
Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat
An evening finish in Paris will be a lovely sight. The route showcases many of France’s biggest tourist attractions (Versailles and the Champs-Elysses cap off a Tour that has already visited Mont Saint-Michel and the Alps). After so many days struggling over mountains, Mark Cavendish will look to pick up his fifth win on the Champs-Elysses, but challengers are nipping at his heels. Marcel Kittel beat him in a pure sprint earlier this Tour, and Greipel will have his say as well. Sagan is not quite as fast in a drag race, but surely he, too, will direct his determination toward this finish. Despite his loss to Kittel in an earlier sprint this Tour, it’s hard to see past Cavendish yet, here where he has never been beaten, though either one of the German pair would not surprise me if they made it to the line first. Forced to choose, I’ll take Cavendish, but I’m far less confident that he will win the day than I am that Britain’s Chris Froome will be not far behind him, wearing yellow.
VeloHuman Favorites
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Andre Greipel
-Dane Cash
Photos by Marianne Casamance and stintje.
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