The Classics are in the rearview mirror but the WorldTour drives on, with the Tour of Romandie the next race on the docket. A six-stage event in the French-speaking part of Switzerland, Romandie has drawn an excellent startlist of big GC names to race its scenic parcours (said scenery one of the many topic’s discussed in the latest Recon Ride, which is worth checking out).
The Route
The Tour de Romandie opens with a team time trial. It’s got a small hill near the end but otherwise it’s relatively flat; at 19.2 kilometers, it’s not long, but it’s not short either, and there will likely be gaps large enough to give a few contenders a sizable advantage.
Stage 2 is a bumpy 166.1km day that will likely see some attempts to get clear on the Cat. 2 climb crested with less than 10km to go, though a major GC shakeup seems unlikely. Stages 3 and 4 have up-and-down profiles but don’t have any major ascents: the sprinters will try to hold on and their teams will try to keep breakaways from going the distance.
Stage 5 is likely to be the most decisive stage of the race, with four Category 1 climbs on the menu, including one to close out the stage.
The ascent to the summit finish is particularly challenging, 14.2km at 7%, and after a day of tough climbing, plenty of would-be GC contenders will likely run out of gas on the incline.
The Tour de Romandie finishes with a 17.3km individual time trial. There is two-part climb in the middle of the course but not one so steep as to make this a climber-friendly ITT: the big engines should thrive here.
The GC Contenders
Chris Froome will be looking to take his third Tour de Romandie in a row this year, but his run-up to this race has not been ideal. Illness forced him to withdraw from Tirreno-Adriatico in March, he was unable to put up much of a showing in his Catalunya return, and then he suffered a bad fall in La Flèche Wallonne. Apparently he’s healthy enough to race, but form is an unknown. He did appear to be going well enough on the road to the Mur de Huy before his crash, and he did ultimately finish the race. His record here and elite combination of climbing and chrono talent (and his team’s) make him hard to pick against as the top favorite again this year, but there is always the possibility that he is just nowhere near racing shape, and competition will be fierce. Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche will be around to play support roles or act as alternatives if necessary, which is quite a luxury for Sky.
Vincenzo Nibali did not land any big results in the Ardennes, but he did show himself to be fit. The chrono mileage doesn’t particularly suit him compared to some of the more ITT-savvy riders here, but he’s demonstrated form more recently than most of the other big names on the startlist. Jakob Fuglsang will make the start as well and figures to play a role for the team coming off of back-to-back Ardennes Top 10s. Fuglsang and Nibali were both in the Top 10 last year and it would be a surprise not to see them both in the mix again this year.
Nairo Quintana’s presence on the startlist means that three of cycling’s so-called Big Four will take on the Tour de Romandie, with Alberto Contador being the only missing rider of the quartet. Quintana, like Nibali, would prefer more climbing and less time trialing. What’s more, although Movistar often field a very strong TTT squad, most of their big chrono guns are sitting this race out. That means that Quintana will have a lot of work to do on Stage 5. Still, he has looked great on the slopes this year and will relish the opportunity to face off against his Tour de France rivals.
Rigoberto Urán is one of the top favorites for next month’s Giro d’Italia, and that means he’ll likely be close to top form in this race. He’s also an elite time trialist riding for EQS, who field an elite TTT squad (which includes Tony Martin) here as well. The Tour de Romandie suits him very well, and he should be in the mix for the overall victory.
Simon Spilak has been runner-up in this race to Chris Froome for two years running. He tends to perform very well in Switzerland, and he’s got a strong all-round skillset that should keep him in contention on both the climbs in the time trials.
Rui Costa also performs at an extremely high-level in Switzerland, with a statistically anomalistic three straight 3rd-place finishes in this race and three straight wins in the Tour de Suisse. He was only so-so in País Vasco but he looked good in the Ardennes Classics and his tendency to ride aggressively on bumpy profiles will be beneficial with this route. I expect Costa to be fighting with the top favorites for the win.
AG2R’s JC Peraud is well suited to the parcours and heading up a powerful team, though one that is likely to lose ground in the opening TTT. Romain Bardet is another option here, though he’ll need to be very aggressive on the climbs to overcome lacking ITT skills in addition to the team’s weak chrono. Mathias Frank of IAM Cycling tends to do quite well in his home country of Switzerland, though the TTT will likely make this a difficult race for him as well. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot should be in the mix, with Swiss all-rounder Steve Morabito making the start as a nice second. BMC’s Rohan Dennis is an elite time trialist who will hope to handle the difficult climbs. Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Yates, Lotto Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka, Cannondale-Garmin’s Dan Martin and Ryder Hesjedal, LottoNL’s Robert Gesink, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland are other GC types with a chance in this race.
The Stagehunters
Not many pure sprinters are making the trip to the Tour de Romandie, probably because there aren’t many stages that are surefire sprint days. Stages 3 and 4 seem like the most likely opportunities for the quick men, and Giant-Alpecin’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Sky’s Elia Viviani, and Europcar’s Bryan Coquard look to be the class of the bunch gallopers. The likes of OGE’s Michael Albasini (who won a whopping three stages last year), FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, EQS’s Gianni Meersman and Julian Alaphilippe, and AG2R’s Jan Bakelants are among the riders to watch on the hillier days that could see the heavier pure sprinter-types left behind.
And time trial wonder Tony Martin deserves a mention of his own, given the fact that this race closes out with an ITT. He should be the favorite to win that stage, with only some of the aforementioned chrono-oriented GC men to challenge him.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Rigoberto Urán, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Rui Costa, Simon Spilak, Nairo Quintana, Jakob Fuglsang, Thibaut Pinot, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Geraint Thomas
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.
Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).
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