Stage 4: Seraing › Cambrai – 223.5km
On the heels of another thrilling early stage in the 2015 Tour de France (won by Joaquim Rodríguez atop the Mur de Huy), the fourth day of the Tour brings the Classics-style opening to the race to a cobbled finale in northern France. It’s a comparatively long stage at 223.5 kilometers, and though mostly flat (there is only one categorized climb, a Cat. 4, early on in the day), a collection of seven cobblestone sectors will offer plenty of challenges to make things interesting.
The first comes about halfway through the day, and then the final six come between the 50km-to-go mark and the 10km-to-go mark, in relatively rapid succession and with never more than 10 kilometers without cobbles inside the final 50 kilometers of racing.
It’s important to point out here that the parcours of the cobbled stage in the 2015 Tour looks a bit different from the parcours of the decisive Stage 5 of the 2014 Tour. On the one hand, this day will be longer than that one was, by about 70 kilomteters. On the other hand, the cobbled sectors aren’t quite as vicious this year. At the moment, the weather forecast does call for some difficult conditions for Stage 4, though things don’t appear to be as dire as they were for last year’s cobbled stage. Still, things could get pretty windy, and there is some chance of rain.
After a painful crash in Stage 3, Fabian Cancellara has abandoned the race, but there are still plenty of big-name Classics riders on the startlist who have had their sights on this stage since it was announced months ago. The GC riders, on the other hand, will be holding on as best they can, hoping to limit potential losses, especially after what happened in last year’s cobblestone ride, where Vincenzo Nibali took a massive chunk of time over all of his rivals on the rough roads in France. Expect to see all sorts of attacks, expect to see a few crashes, and definitely expect to see a severely reduced peloton near the end of the day—at the same time, however, don’t be too surprised if this ends in a reduced sprint. The road is pretty flat from start to finish and the riders aren’t taking on the Arenberg Trench or the Carrefour de l’Arbre, which could allow things to stay compact at the front for those tough enough to survive the long day.
Alexander Kristoff, winner of the 2015 Tour of Flanders, is terrific on this sort of terrain. He showed in De Ronde this year that he is fully capable of winning a bike race by getting into a decisive move far from the finish line; he’s also an elite sprinter, one of the best in the race, and that combination makes him dangerous here. He proved his form with a stage win in the Tour de Suisse, and should be ready for action here in the Tour’s Stage 4. Watch out for teammate Luca Paolini as well.
John Degenkolb took a Roubaix victory this year in an impressive style of his own, also jumping into a small move late in the race and closing a sizeable gap to a lead group mostly of his own accord to take the win. Like Kristoff, he’s got proven ability as a Classics specialist, not just as a sprinter who can handle cobbles. I’m not as confident that the form is quite at the level it needs to be, but Degenkolb will be among the very top favorites for this stage.
Peter Sagan has already racked up one 2nd-place finish in this Tour after collecting quite a few last year. He’ll have another chance for a big result (for him, a win is obviously the most ideal result here) on Stage 4. Sagan very nearly pipped André Greipel in a pure sprint on Stage 2, suggesting that he’s on absolutely blazing form right now—the biggest question for the versatile Slovakian is whether or not he’ll have the freedom to get aggressive with the team’s main focus in this race being Alberto Contador’s GC chances. I think he’ll have some breathing room if the opportunities are there, but I don’t expect him to get involved in anything from too far out.
Greg Van Avermaet has yet to take a marquee Spring Classics victory but he’s always on point on the cobbles, and not bad in a fast finish either. Van Avermaet has looked very strong these past few weeks, and even finished 15th on the Mur de Huy on Stage 3 (ahead of names like Urán, Bardet, Barguil, Peraud, and many others). This is a great opportunity for a Tour victory for him, so expect to see some aggression late on in the stage.
Sep Vanmarcke doesn’t have quite the finishing kick that some of the other contenders here bring to the table, meaning that he’ll need to try to break clear on the rough terrain. If the weather is indeed bad, the opportunities will certainly be there. The form of the Belgian Classics specialist tends to quiet down every year after the spring, but with a great chance for a win in the sport’s biggest race, I think it’s fair to expect Vanmarcke to be in decent shape and hunting success here.
Lars Boom won last year’s crazy cobbled stage, and he delivered a few good results in the Classics with new team Astana this year. Expect another good performance on the cobbles of the Tour this year. Zdenek Stybar would probably prefer a tougher parcours but he’s a well-rounded rider who can make something happen on almost any terrain, and should fight with the top favorites for the win. Edvald Boasson Hagen has been in great shape lately and will be looking to collect some redemption after a Classics season marred by injury. Sylvain Chavanel also had a disappointing spring campaign but he’s also shown strong form at times this year and could thrive on Stage 4.
André Greipel flashed good form throughout the Classics this year and could surprise people in this stage—it’s flat enough that a flat finish could be in store. Bad weather could deter his chances though; he was great in the nasty conditions of Stage 3 on Monday but in his career he’s generally been less successful in the wet. Arnaud Demaré is another quick man with the ability to handle a few cobbles. Bryan Coquard and Sam Bennett could be up there as well, and don’t count out Mark Cavendish, who has won some big cobbled races in the past.
VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites
1. Alexander Kristoff | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. John Degenkolb
Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 4. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
-Dane Cash