Stage 17: Digne-les-Bains › Pra Loup – 161km
The first of four challenging days in the Alps, Stage 17 comes on the heels of a rest day (which gave VH and Cyclocosm time to team up for one last Tour de France Recon Ride episode). Hopefully, the riders will have gotten in every bit of recovery they need, because the next few stages will put everyone to the test.
Relatively short at 161km, Stage 17 follows the same route of Stage 5 of the 2015 Critérium du Dauphiné, won by Romain Bardet. The stage opens on a short climb, with about 30km of flat to follow, and then it’s up and down all the way to the line. A pair of Cat. 3s and then an 11km (at 5.2%) Cat. 2 are the appetizers of the day before a 1-2 punch of climbs (that happen to be Category 1 and Category 2 climbs, respectively) to close things out.
The Cat. 1 Col d’Allos is really just the second half of a long uphill stretch that starts much earlier. The peloton will be going upward for over 30 kilometers, with an average grade of about 3% over the long haul. The official climb of the Col d’Allos is 14km in length at 5.5%. It starts out at relatively low gradients, but it stays at 6% or more for the final 6 kilometers.
After a long, tricky descent from the Col d’Allos comes the final climb of the day, the 6.2km, 6.5% ascent to Pra Loup. It’s a pretty steady uphill drag, with the final kilometer getting a bit steeper at 8%.
The rolling profile, and the lack of any HC-rated climbs, makes this a great day for the breakaway, but it’s never easy getting a great read of the motivations of the teams in the pack. Several of the fringe GC contenders have shown interest in trying to get up the road, but others have been cagey about that prospect and had their teams policing potential escapes. We saw this on Stage 14 when IAM Cycling chased the break because the squad wasn’t pleased with the presence of GC outsiders in the move who might have threatened Mathias Frank’s Top 10 bid. The makeup of the Stage 17 break will help determine whether the pack chases it down, as will the plans of Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo, who could be hoping to test the waters, knowing some riders struggle after a rest day. To me, it’s another toss-up day between the pack and the break.
For a possible breakaway win, look to the strong climbers whose GC aspirations have faded. Romain Bardet will be an obvious pick after taking the win here in the Dauphiné. He’s already spent plenty of time up the road in this Tour de France, and he’s come close to stage victories so far twice. He’s not at his very best form-wise, but he’ll still be able to beat most anyone else on this profile if he’s in the breakaway. Teammates Alexis Vuillermoz and Jan Bakelants will be worth watching as well—these climbs aren’t so hard as to put them out of contention from a long-range move.
Jakob Fuglsang beat Bardet to the top of the Plateau de Beille on Stage 12, and the long, steady climbs of the day suit him. He’s in good form and Astana is hoping to salvage something from this Tour despite Vincenzo Nibali’s GC failings. The biggest question for Fuglsang is whether he’ll go on the attack here, or wait until the following stages to try a breakaway move.
That’s also a question for Joaquim Rodríguez, who has kept his powder dry over the last few stages for a big mountain push. The Stage 17 finish is excellent for Rodríguez, a short steep wall after a not-that-hard climb, but he may have the KOM points of the next few stages in mind. If he’s in the lead group at the end of the day he’ll be a top favorite.
Pierre Rolland should shine on this profile, if he can manage to get up the road either early on, or with a late attack—Cyril Gautier and Romain Sicard could try to get in the mix as well. Compatriot Thibaut Pinot looked very strong coming into the Tour de France but his form has been nowhere near expectations so far. This isn’t a perfect profile for him (he’s never been the world’s best descender) but he’ll likely be very active in the hunt for a stage win in the mountains.
Rafal Majka could threaten if he decides to try to get in the break. Dan Martin was sick during the last few stages but says he’s recovering now, and this is an excellent stage profile for him. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will be worth watching as well. Michal Kwiatkowski, Rigoberto Urán, Louis Meintjes, Serge Pauwels, Adam and Simon Yates, Wilco Kelderman, and Rafael Valls are other potential dangers in a long-range move.
If the peloton does reel in the break, Alejandro Valverde will be the hot favorite for stage victory with this final climb, which is not hard enough to open up huge gaps and will instead favor Valverde’s excellent finishing kick. A potentially aggressive Nairo Quintana will give Movistar a great 1-2 punch for Stage 17.
Tony Gallopin has the speed at the line to challenge Valverde if this comes down to a reduced sprint among the GC types. He’d be a stronger contender if he hadn’t looked exhausted during the stage to Gap, but perhaps after a rest day he will have recovered some strength.
Vincenzo Nibali’s ability to descend and his aggressive streak will serve him well if he decides to go on the hunt for a stage win here.
Chris Froome may decide to play this safe and stay in the wheels, but if he is interested, he’s looked strong enough so far in this Tour de France that he can distance his GC rivals, with the exception of maybe Nairo Quintana, at a moment’s notice if he is so motivated. Sky’s Geraint Thomas will be one to watch with this finish as well.
Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema could both surprise people if this comes down to a group finish—both are speedier at the line than many realize.
VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Romain Bardet | 3. Joaquim Rodríguez
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 17.
-Dane Cash