Stage 18: Gap › Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne – 186.5km
Simon Geschke’s Stage 17 breakaway win concluded just the first of four tough Alpine stages. With another day at the Tour de France comes another day in the mountains. Stage 18 features more categorized climbs (seven in total) than any stage in the Tour de France, and a few of them are quite challenging.
The climbing starts right away with the 6.3km, 7%-gradient Col Bayard, which will certainly see some action as riders try to get into an early move. After the top of the climb and a descent thats eases into a stretch of more gentle downhill, the profile is up and down for the rest of the day. Three Cat. 3 climbs lead into the Cat. 2 Col de la Morte, only 3.1km in length but with a harsh 8.4% average gradient.
From the top it’s a very steep descent of about 15 kilometers, after which the road angles upward again, climbing for a not-insignificant stretch to the official start of the Col du Glandon.
21.7km a 5.1%, and coming after a bit of uncategorized climbing at that, the Cat. 1 Col du Glandon is an irregular ascent with numerous stretches that get up near and over 10%. There are plenty of places to attack on the very long way up, and the sheer magnitude of the climb will make it an unpleasant trip for everyone involved.
But the day doesn’t end at the top of the climb—a 20km descent follows into the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Lacets de Montvernier. 3.4km at 8.2%, it’s one last jumping off point for the punchy, enterprising riders in this Tour, with the top of the ascent coming 10km from the finish.
So many categorized climbs, and so many short steep stretches, will make Stage 18 an attackers’ playground. Expect to see plenty of action on the earlier climbs. If the morning aggressors are reeled in, expect to see plenty more attackers on the Col de la Morte and then the Col du Glandon. It could be some time before a solid break is formed. And even if the early break is reeled in sometime before the final 20km, the Lacets de Montvernier will be a great launching pad for one last strike for glory.
The Tour has already seen plenty of big, successful breakaway moves, with Sky and Movistar content to fight it out in the GC battle well behind the breaks. The fact that the hardest climb of the day comes so far from the line might help temper the pace in the peloton. Controlling this stage will be a big challenge anyway, given the profile. With so many strong climbers well out of the overall race leadership competition, it seems likely that plenty of talented riders will find themselves up the road on battling for Stage 18 from a long-range move. Only a serious injection of pace from the pack on the Col du Glandon can keep this together.
In any case, the Stage 18 winner will almost certainly be a top-notch climber with good descending skills as well. Joaquim Rodríguez tried and tried again to get up the road on Stage 17 but the peloton kept reeling in the early moves. I’m betting he’ll resume that effort on Stage 18. Of the strong climbers in the Tour de France who aren’t any GC threat whatsoever, Rodríguez is one of the very strongest. He should thrive on this brutal day, and he doesn’t even need to attack on the Col du Glandon if he doesn’t want to, since the short but very steep test near the end of the stage suits him perfectly. The finishing straight even kicks up slightly to favor him in a late uphill sprint if he finds himself in that situation. As always, the question mark will be whether Purito gets up the road. If he’s there, he’s a major threat.
Romain Bardet kept the powder dry on Stage 17, but he could try to go on the move on Stage 18. This profile doesn’t suit him quite as much, but he’s still among the top climbers in the race, and he has plenty of motivation to get something out of the Tour before it leaves the Alps. Alternatively, AG2R could send Alexis Vuillermoz up the road here instead. Vuillermoz has shown in the past that he’s capable on the long, hard climbs, and the steep final climb suits him very well.
Ryder Hesjedal has been active in the breakaways in 2015 Tour but he hasn’t been particularly successful. He’ll have another chance here on a stage that suits his characteristics. Teammate Dan Martin is another solid candidate for long-range success—the profile, especially the late climb, is a good one for him. Unfortunately, Martin suffered from illness in the second week of the Tour, and his current form is a question mark. Andrew Talansky will probably be a bit exhausted after Stage 17 but he is, at his best, a Grand Tour GC rider who should have the endurance for back-to-back hard days if he has it in his mind to get involved here.
BMC’s Samuel Sánchez has been quietly riding an excellent Tour de France, currently sitting 13th overall despite riding in support of Tejay van Garderen for most of the race. Now that his team leader has abandoned the Tour, Sánchez could look to go on the move. It’s hard to imagine a better profile for the elite descender and punchy climber. If Sánchez can get up the road, he’ll be a top favorite for stage honors. Damiano Caruso is worth keeping an eye on as well.
Europcar, a team looking for a 2016 sponsor, has yet to come away with a stage victory in this Tour, but this is a golden opportunity. Pierre Rolland tried to get into the break on Stage 17 and could look to get on the move again on Stage 18. Cyril Gautier doesn’t have a Tour de France white jersey in his palmarès, but he may be an even better bet. The up and down suits him very well. Tommy Voeckler isn’t what he once was as a racer but this is a great profile for him as well.
Jakob Fuglsang is among the top climbers in the Tour and way down on GC; if he were clear in his motivations of taking every opportunity available to go stagehunting from the break, he’d be a strong pick—but he’s been very quiet since his 2nd-place finish on Stage 12. If he’s up there, he’s a strong contender but he might be waiting a little bit longer to go for it . . . or he might even have resigned himself back to being a domestique again that Vincenzo Nibali seems set on fighting for the Top 5.
Jarlinson Pantano (who is surprisingly fast at the line), Rigoberto Urán, Jan Bakelants, Wilco Kelderman, Michael Rogers, Rafal Majka, Thibaut Pinot, and, if he’s not too exhausted, Stage 17 winner Simon Geschke are other riders worth watching as potential candidates to take a Stage 18 victory from afar.
Tony Gallopin would be one of my top contenders from the breakaway for this stage but he has shown very little interest in getting up the road in this race, and he’s looked exhausted in the past few days. The profile suits him but I’m not sure he’s got the strength at this point. On the flipside, don’t rule out Peter Sagan—the HC-rated climb of the Col du Glandon is very difficult and not really Sagan’s style, but he’s looked to be incredibly strong this month and if he can hold on over the top of the climb he’s got a great shot at the stage win if he’s in the lead group.
Should the main breakaway be reeled in by the peloton on Stage 18, Alejandro Valverde will be an obvious favorite with the late short climb and then the flat finish. He excels in both scenarios. If Robert Gesink can hold on over the day’s challenging climbs, he’s another rider to keep an eye on late in the day. The Top 5 is a real possibility and Gesink has some punch.
Vincenzo Nibali will also like the look of the profile, given the very long descent on tap late in the day, followed by the short ramp that could provide an opportunity to go on the attack if he hasn’t distanced the GC men yet, though Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana are always potential stage winners themselves when there are mountains involved.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Romain Bardet | 3. Alejandro Valverde
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 18.
-Dane Cash