Stage 8: Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia – 182.5km
The Vuelta’s eighth stage involves far more downhill kilometers than uphill kilometers, but a twice-ascended climb in the latter half of the day will still likely have an impact.
The first 110 kilometers of Stage 8 are almost all downhill as the Vuelta a España descends toward Murcia and the coast. Then comes a flatter stretch of about 30km before the peloton hits the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo, a tough Cat. 3 climb of 4.2 kilometers at a 7.5% average grade. From the top it’s a steep descent down to flatter roads, which wind right back to the foot of the Cresta del Gallo for a second trip up. Then comes another trip back down to the coast. From the point when things even out again at the town of Algezares, it’s just 13km to the finish line.
On the whole, Stage 8 does not involve all that much climbing, but the placement of the climbs makes them hard to overlook. They’ll whittle down the pack significantly, and could also serve as a launching pad for a late attack. If the peloton comes into the finale in a compact group, the sprint will still be among a reduced field.
An in-form Peter Sagan would be a clear-cut favorite for this stage, but since he’s not completely at 100%, it’s a bit of a question mark as to whether he can survive the climbs and fight it out in a sprint. I still see him as the likeliest candidate for success, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him dropped on the first or second trip up the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. The big GC guns have been extremely conservative in this Vuelta so far, however, and a continued lack of action could help Sagan stay in touch.
John Degenkolb seems a little less likely to make it up and over the final climb, and even if he does he might be too gassed to fight for the win, though he can’t be counted out. Degenkolb is lacking in the form department right now but it would make sense for him to be working his way up to a peak with Worlds approaching, and at his best, Degenkolb would be a top favorite for this stage. Nacer Bouhanni and Caleb Ewan will both have to work very, very hard to hang on over the final climb, though both riders can count on being contenders if they make it to the finish in the lead group.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde shouldn’t have any trouble hanging on, and will likely feature in a potential reduced sprint, as he is among the fastest of the GC men. Teammate JJ Rojas is an excellent alternative, but team politics will be the biggest obstacle for him to overcome: he doesn’t get many chances to ride for himself. He may be faster than Valverde in a sprint, but multiple stages in the Volta a Catalunya showed that Movistar isn’t afraid to ask Rojas to brake and let Valverde cross the line first if necessary.
Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez would be a great candidate for success with a late attack on the climb if he were showing any interest whatsoever in being active in this Vuelta, but he’s been disappointingly quiet so far in the race. Daniel Moreno may be the stronger stage favorite, as he’s handy in a reduced sprint.
Daniel Martin has the punch to launch a late attack and the fast finish to contend in a sprint. The same is true for Tom Dumoulin, who has looked incredible in the first week of the Vuelta. Jelle Vanendert, Samuel Sánchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Carlos Barbero, Jose Goncalvez, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Jasper Stuyven, Simon Gerrans, Julien Simon, and Tosh Van Der Sande are others with potential in this finish.
With a finale that isn’t all that well-tailored to the pure sprinters, the breakaway will have its chance at making it all the way on Stage 8. Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Adam Hansen, Cyril Gautier, and Alessandro De Marchi are among the many riders who could thrive from a long-range move.
VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. John Degenkolb
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.