Stage 17: Burgos › Burgos – 38.7km (ITT)
For the powerful engines in the Vuelta peloton who have been struggling in the mountains, the Stage 17 time trial, likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the overall winner of the race, is just what the doctor ordered.
38.7 kilometers in full, it’s a time trial that suits the specialists—though perhaps a bit less than a quick glance at the profile would suggest. The first 10km trends generally uphill, with a few steeper stretches. Then it’s a quick downhill, a short roller, and a descent onto a long section of flat.
Around kilometer 30 there is another bump in the road, followed by a climb of about a kilometer at over 6%. Then comes a descent down into a flattish (slightly uphill finish).
While the parcours is far from a high-mountain time trial, it does have a few ups and downs and some technical stretches. We can expect the time trialing heavyweights to go really well, but I do see a few areas that will give the climbers at least something to be happy about.
Tom Dumoulin, currently 4th overall, is the best time trialist in the race by a significant margin, and he has everything on the line, as he is just 2 minutes away from the race lead. At his best, he would dominate this course, which suits him very well. However, an ITT after two weeks of hard racing and hanging with the GC favorites is uncharted territory for Dumoulin. I still see him as the favorite, and I expect him to do very well, but he might not perform quite to his peak ability after such a tough Vuelta.
Vasil Kiryienka will likely be his biggest challenger for the stage. Kiryienka has been excellent this year, and he has already taken a big Grand Tour time trial victory this season in the Giro. Unlike Dumoulin, he has not needed to go quite as deep in the Vuelta. He’s got strong climbing legs and won’t be troubled by the rollers on the course. In short, I think he will give Dumoulin a run for his money for Stage 17.
Luis León Sánchez was just 12 seconds behind Kiryienka in the that Giro TT. He’s on great form right now and will have a rare chance to do his own thing here. Like the aforementioned pair, he’s also handy on rolling climbs and should go very well on the parcours.
Nelson Oliveira is on great form right now and is strong in the discipline. He could contend for the stage win. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has turned himself into a TT specialist at this point in his career and has put up several nice results recently. Stephen Cummings, Maciej Bodnar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, and Jerome Coppel are others to watch for on Stage 17.
I think Joaquím Rodríguez will do a bit better than most people seem to expect—despite his reputation for losing big in the ITTs, he’s become a respectable rider against the clock over the past few years. Unfortunately for Purito, I also think we will see Fabio Aru putting up a strong ride. Astana knows how important the time trials are and even though Aru is far from a chrono specialist, he’s got a strong engine and will be fresher than most riders after several tough days in the mountains. In the same vein, I see Rafal Majka doing particularly well on Stage 17. He’s shown ability against the clock even on flatter TTs in the past, and he’s got a great chance at podium in this Vuelta if he can put it all together here.
VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites
1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Vasil Kiryienka | 3. Luis León Sánchez
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.