Stage 18: Roa › Riaza 204km
There are just four stages left in the 2015 Vuelta a España, and only three of them have climbs to speak of: anyone who isn’t satisfied with their GC position thus far has to put it all on the line in the next few days. That should make for an exciting finale.
Stage 18 is a lumpy one, and while it may lack a summit finish, don’t underestimate the potential for action. The stage opens with a long false flat, a few rollers, and then a very long false flat (about 30km at a 1% gradient or so) that runs into the first of the stage’s three categorized climbs, the Cat. 3 Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón. After a downhill stretch comes another Cat. 3, and then the next 80 kilometers are a constant succession of short ups and downs that, while uncategorized, will likely inject some fatigue into the legs.
At kilometer 181, the riders will hit the final climb of the day, the cat. 1 Puerto de la Quesera. 10km at 5.2%, it starts out relatively easy before getting a bit more difficult after 4km. From the top, it’s only 13km to the finish, downhill all the way to the line.
In terms of the stage win, this one looks tailormade for the breakaway. The GC favorites put everything on the line on Stage 17 and might be bringing a bit of fatigue into the day, and without a summit finish, there might be bit less pace in the peloton late in the afternoon.
Alessandro De Marchi already has one breakaway stage victory in this Vuelta and a few of the days ahead will offer more opportunities for De Marchi’s aggressive brand of racing. He’s not a sprinter, nor is he an elite climber compared to the jersey hopefuls, but he’s excellent on rolling terrain.
Giovanni Visconti has the multi-fateced skillset to win. And a nice finishing kick to place highly at the line. Movistar politics are the big unknown here. but if he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, he’s a rider to watch.
Europcar has landed riders in break over and over agains in this Vuelta and this stage should continue that trend. Cyril Gautier has a strong track record on small climbs like this and Romain Sicard is having a great run so far.
Lampre-Merida’s Rubén Plaza took a Tour de France stage victory in July bolstered by his ability to put in a good performance on lumpy terrain. Caja Rural’s José Goncalves is well-suited to the parcours, though the team has so many options it’s hard to pick just one. Adam Hansen, Julien Simon, Stephen Cummings, and Niki Terpstra are others could be looking to win the early battle to get into the break.
Alejandro Valverde has to be to the top favorite if the red jersey hopefuls are fighting it out for the stage victory. With a sprint that is so much better than that of his rivals, he’s looking strong again, so the climbs shouldn’t trouble him.
Joaquím Rodriguez is also well-suited to success on the parcours. He needs to make something happen as soon as possible to still hold on to his slim chance at the red jersey. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if he tries something on the final climb.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Alessandro De Marchi | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. José Goncalves
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 18.