Day 3: Early Fireworks
As expected, the big GC show started right away in the 2013 Vuelta. First, a hotly contested team time trial put some favorites into strong positions (Vincenzo Nibali, and Sky’s Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran) and left others down a little more than they might have liked (Ivan Basso, Michele Scarponi, and Dan Martin). Then, stage two shook up the fight for the red jersey when the lead group dropped heavy hitters like the aforementioned Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez, who lost a few minutes on GC, and Carlos Betancur, who put himself completely out of contention rolling in more than nine minutes down. Nicolas Roche led a late attack over the line with other GC outsiders Dani Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Leopold Konig, and the rest of the big names were close behind. Stage 3 saw some danger moments for a number of riders after crashes and windy conditions caused splits, but things got organized for the final climb. 41 year old American Chris Horner (RSLT) attacked late and the rest of the big names just stared at each other, allowing the veteran to nab the stage victory and the red jersey. Valverde won the sprint behind him and a few small gaps formed on the summit finish, but all of the favorites finished within a few seconds of each other. Now, after a thrilling first three days, the Vuelta turns to four straight days that could potentially be for the sprinters.
Stage 4: Lalín > Fisterra | 189km | Flat
There is only one categorized climb on the menu, but Stage 4 is rather lumpy, enough to spur a breakaway move early. The peloton will fight to reel them in, and the generally downhill/flat stretch of about thirty kilometers leading into the finish will favor the pursuit. Then, the road heads up at roughly 3.5% for the finish at a beautiful promontory (pictured above) that was once the edge of the known world for much of Western Europe. It’s enough to give an advantage to the lighter, more capable climbers of the sprinting crowd, and a bend in the road in final few hundred kilometers will favor a well-marshaled, aggressive squad. Assuming the pack finishes together, this sounds perfect for Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Gianni Meersman. He’s been on fire this year, and his legs don’t have any Grand Tour mileage in them other than what they’ve covered so far this week. BMC will potentially look to set up Philippe Gilbert again, especially after he was unable to threaten in Stage 3. It might not be steep enough for Gilbert to outshine some of the stronger kicks in the peloton, especially with his recent nasty knee injury. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen would be an obvious pick here were it not for his shoulder injury from the Tour de France; with those concerns, it is harder to say how he will fare. He was dropped from the Sky train in the opening time trial, but he looked okay climbing up the summit finish of Stage 3. Orica-GreenEdge has both Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews, and it seems like they’ll favor the latter here, though it’s never easy to tell with OGE. The finish might be a bit steep for Tyler Farrar, but he’s been very good this year. The two under-the-radar sprinters I tipped in my initial Vuelta preview, Argos Shimano’s Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, could also factor here. If an aggressive rider manages to attack for the win, don’t be surprised if it’s Diego Ulissi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Grega Bole, or the resurgent Anthony Roux. And of course, the uphill finish could see Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, and other punchy, Ardennes-style GC types strike out for bonus seconds.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Alejandro Valverde
Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 174.3km | Medium Mountains
Another lumpy day, with two Cat 3 climbs and a lot of uncategorized ascending, Stage 5 will also likely see a lot of attacking early. However, the road angles downward again with plenty of distance left, and with one of the few relatively flat finishes in this Vuelta awaiting the peloton at the end of the line, those sprinters who have made it over the hills will be extra-motivated to bring back anyone up the road. The lumps may force some selection, but it seems likely that this stage will go to a sprinter. If OGE decides to support Michael Matthews over Gerrans or Leigh Howard (and, as this is a more difficult stage but not an extremely difficult one, they seem likely to), this is a great opportunity for him. Tyler Farrar isn’t guaranteed to make it, but as few sprinting opportunities as there are in this race, he’ll surely be giving every one of them 100%. Gianni Meersman and (assuming he’s healthy enough) Edvald Boasson Hagen probably won’t have much trouble with the climbing, so they’re sure to challenge. Whomever Argos-Shimano decides to back, Janse van Rensburg or Ardnt, will have a good opportunity as well. Cannondale’s young up-and-comer Daniele Ratto might be in the mix. If BMC decides to support Gilbert for the sprints at the end of every difficult stage, he could be involved here, too. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus, should he manage to finish with the bunch, is a danger if he makes it to the finish with the pack and with his strength, and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Andrew Fenn is a name to keep in mind as well. Finally, Fabian Cancellara’s goals in this Vuelta are rather unclear, but he might target this stage with its potentially selective early climbs, but flatter finish.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Edvald Boasson Hagen
Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 175km | Flat
Stage 6 is the flattest stage so far, one that the sprinters will have circled in the road book. There is a very short kick upward not far from the finish line, but it seems likely that the stage will end in a bunch sprint contested by the big names. Tyler Farrar is the first one that comes to mind. Barry Markus of Vacansoleil and Adrien Petit of Cofidis will be eager to sure what they can do, if they haven’t already in the previous two stages. We will probably know the rider that Argos is favoring by this point, so keep an eye on Stages 4 and 5 to get an idea of the direction in which they’re heading in terms of Ardnt vs. Janse van Rensburg. We’ll also probably have a better idea of how Boasson Hagen is doing by this point. As always, Meersman could be in play, or it could be a time for Andrew Fenn. Orica-GreenEdge might go with Leigh Howard here.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Gianni Meersman
Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 205.9km | Flat
I hate to say it, but with so many consecutive stages that could go to sprinters, I’m running out of things to say about them. Stage 7 is almost certain to end in a bunch gallop, and by this point, if you’ve been watching the previous bunch sprints, you’ll already have a good sense of what is what in this race. It should be the usual suspects here, and it’s probably Farrar’s best shot to win a stage until the Madrid finale. Same goes for Leigh Howard, given OGE’s stated intention of giving Michael Matthews the green light on harder stages. This could be a stage for Andrew Fenn of OPQS, or they could stick with Meersman. You should be familiar with the rest of the names now: Boasson Hagen, Markus, Arndt/Janse van Rensburg, Petit. Watching from home, Theo Bos will rue the low cortisol levels that kept him out of the race.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Leigh Howard
-Dane Cash
Photo by Oscar Anton.
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