Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel › Utah Beach Sainte-Marie-du-Mont – 188km
The Tour’s opening stage should be one for the sprinter’s, with coastal crosswinds looking like the only potential obstacle standing in the way of the speedsters. The profile itself is quite flat, tailormade for a bunch kick, but windy conditions could force splits in the pack. Even if that does happen, however, I still expect a sprint to close out this stage, with the wind mostly serving to thin the list of contenders.
Marcel Kittel stands atop that list. He may have had a rough 2015 Tour, but he’s been terrific this season, leading me to believe he’s back to the level that saw him dominate the sprints the two years prior. He also rides for Etixx now, and if there’s one team likely to make something happen in the wind, it’s the Belgian super-squad.
Kittel’s top challengers should be, of course, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish. I’d probably rank Cavendish slightly ahead of Greipel because I see the Manxman as having better pure speed in peak form—but he hasn’t shown it off in high-level races yet this season. As such, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to me if he were a bit off the mark.
Behind those big three, expect Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, John Degenkolb, and Bryan Coquard to be fighting for the surprise win. But unless there a big split in the crosswinds, I have a hard time seeing any of them taking the day.
VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites
1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel