Stage 4: Saumur › Limoges – 237.5km
Tuesday’s stage is rather similar to Monday’s: long and mostly flat. It’s actually the longest stage of this year’s Tour, and yet the profile contains just one forgettable Cat. 4 climb. The most important topographical feature comes at the finish, where the road angles upward slightly for the final 500 meters.
The profile is pretty sprinter-friendly so it’s hard to see anyone other than the speedsters as top favorites, though the length could shake things up a bit. 237.5km puts this into the realm of a one-day classic, and that could leave some of the less versatile sprinters a bit worn out by the end of the day.
As such, I like André Greipel to win the stage. He came so close to the win in Stage 3, proving his strong form, and I think Stage 4 suits him a bit bitter, now that he’s shown some ability in the classics.
That said, Mark Cavendish has to be considered a strong contender to take his third win of the Tour. He’s obviously in top shape, and his teammates have proven themselves worthy supporters in the bunch kicks.
The third member of the top sprinting trio in this Tour, Marcel Kittel, found himself out of position in Stage 3 but that doesn’t mean he’s not in-form. Tuesday’s route might be a bit long for the German but not so long that I’m counting him out.
On the other hand, Peter Sagan‘s chances look great on this parcours. The slight uphill drag in the finale suits him quite well, as does the distance. I think he’s probably got a better shot than Kittel with all those factors in mind.
Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Greg Van Avermaet, and Edward Theuns are other speedy options who should really like the look of the profile—this is just the sort of route that gives them a chance to steal a sprint win from the Cavs and the Kittels.
VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites
1. André Greipel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Mark Cavendish