Stage 12: Los Corrales de Buelna › Bilbao – 193.2km
The Vuelta is headed into the Basque Country, and the terrain of stage 12 fits the bill. The two early climbs will put some tiredness into the legs in the bunch, and then two trips up a late Cat. 2 should lead to some action. The early breakers have a shot today, and so does anyone who tries to get away late. At the same time, the run-in to the line is flat, which makes a good sprint important.
Taking all those things into account, I’ve got a few punchy stagehunters in mind as favorites.
Fabio Felline is the first rider on the list. He shouldn’t have any trouble with the climbs, and his sprint is a big asset. One advantage he’ll have over a number of other likely contenders is his speed even on flat roads—he’s got nice climbing legs, but he’s a fast finisher even in a traditional bunch kick.
Gianluca Brambilla has a nice finish too, though his punchy climbing style will likely be his biggest ally, possibly allowing him to get away before the finale. The same is true of Luis León Sánchez.
Philippe Gilbert is definitely a rider to watch on this profile. He can win in several different scenarios, if the form is there.
Alejandro Valverde is a potential protagonist as well. He won’t be able to get into the early break, of course, but if the stage is ridden hard enough he could outsprint the rest of the big GC names at the end of the day.
Gianni Meersman is worth mentioning given his versatility—this is a tough stage but I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that he’ll survive to the line.
Pello Bilbao, Omar Fraile, Simon Yates, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, and Jan Bakelants are others with a shot.
VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites
1. Fabio Felline | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Gianluca Brambilla