Stage 14: Urdax-Dantxarinea › Aubisque – 196.1km
Saturday’s stage offers plenty of opportunities for the GC heavyweights and stagehunters alike to make moves. After a flat first 50km, it’s a brutal run to the line, with three hard Cat. 1s en route to an hors categorie finish.
The final ascent, to Aubisque, is relatively steady, 16.5km at 7.1%, with a few steeper stretches. With that challenge to close out a day with three other tough climbs, stage 14 is all about uphill endurance.
The lumpy profile had me thinking breakaway at the start of this week, but now I’m not so sure. After the peloton gave the early break a half hour advantage in Stage 13, I can see a strong case for the well-rested GC contenders battling it out for Stage 14 honors. I’d say it’s 50/50 now.
Since there are only a few potential stage winners that really stand out among the red jersey hopefuls, I’ll start there. This climb suits the Grand Tour stars quite well, so I’m expecting a big showdown between Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome. They’re neck and neck right now, but if I had to pick one over the other for this stage going in, I suppose I’d pick Froome. If he can win on Peña Cabarga, which I think suits him less, he can win here. Of course, so can Quintana.
Speaking of Sky and Movistar, Leopold König and Alejandro Valverde, though they may be lieutenants on their respective teams, could steal the show here given how well they’ve been riding.
Esteban Chaves tried his luck in Stage 11 and it didn’t pan out, but I think he’s got another nice chance here. Alberto Contador seems likely to attack, as he’s been pretty active so far, so he’s worth watching too, though I don’t know that he’s capable of holding off a motivated Froome or Quintana.
The list of potential breakaway winners is long as usual, but I especially like Rubén Fernandez, Robert Gesink, Tejay van Garderen, Joe Dombrowski, Pierre Rolland, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Darwin Atapuma, Pierre Latour, and Thomas De Gendt.
VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites
1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rubén Fernandez