Stage 17: Castellón › Llucena – 177.5km
The Vuelta peloton gets a rude welcome in its return from a rest day. Wednesday’s stage is one for the climbers, with two early Cat. 2s, a Cat. 3 whose official length of 11.2km ignores an uphill lead-in of several kilometers, and a very steep Cat. 1 finale.
The ramp to the finish line, though only 3.8km, has a vicious average grade of 12.5%. Expect some GC action—if anyone near the top of the leaderboard senses weakness from his rivals, a climb like this presents a great opportunity to nab time, as teammates are not particularly useful at these gradients.
As for the stage battle, I like the breakaway’s chances. The parcours will make this stage tough to control, and I expect the GC favorites to be more concerned with each other than anyone up the road. As such, anyone who can go from afar has to be considered a big threat here.
Robert Gesink has proven to be quite strong in this race, and if he gets into a breakaway here he’ll be tough to beat. Of the riders likely to be getting into the breaks in this Vuelta, he’s shown the best combination of ability and current form, and his grand tour skillset makes him deadly on a brutal finishing climb like this.
Gianluca Brambilla could also challenge for a stage win. He rode masterfully in Stage 15 to show off the excellent shape he’s in, and this finish suits him well.
Luis León Sánchez has been very active getting into moves so far, and he should like the finishing climb. He’s always been adept at putting the hammer down for a late solo move and that should suit him well on a short final climb.
Ben Hermans, Thomas De Gendt, Mathias Frank, Kenny Elissonde, Dries Devenyns, Egor Silin, Louis Meintjes, Pierre Latour, and the now-no-longer-in-GC-contention Leopold König are others to keep an eye on here.
If it’s the GC contenders battling for the stage, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious candidates for success (and I like Froome just a bit better), but I see some of the riders a bit further down the leaderboard as the likeliest stage winners. As Froome and Quintana may be busy watching each other on the final climb, either Esteban Chaves or Simon Yates could sneak away. Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez can’t be overlooked either.
VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites
1. Robert Gesink | 2. Gianluca Brambilla | 3. Esteban Chaves