With Québec done and dusted the WorldTour’s Canadian campaign heads to Montréal for a slightly more challenging race. A bit friendlier to long-range attacks than it’s Québec counterpart, the event has delivered plenty of excitement in recent years and there’s little reason to expect this year’s edition to be any less of an intriguing show.
The Route
The GP Montréal is a circuit race of 17 12.1km laps. The total distance works out to 205.7km. Starting along the Avenue du Parc, the race works its way up and around the Mount Royal and then finishes back where it started. Each lap involves three official climbs: the Côte Camillien-Houde, 1.8km at 8%, the Côte de la Polytechnique, 780m at 6%, and then the 560m run to the finish at 4%.
The Montréal parcours provides an interesting contrast to the Québec parcours. On the one hand, the hillier profile makes long-range attacks more likely to stick, with more bona fide opportunities to escape and a peloton thinned out by the day’s challenges. On the other hand, the finish itself isn’t actually as challenging, meaning traditional finishing speed (as opposed to uphill explosiveness) is more important for a group finish. Tim Wellens made sure to avoid that problem last year by getting into a late escape with just one other rider.
The Contenders
Peter Sagan seems an obvious place to start the contenders conversation, as he’s won the Montréal race before and is coming off a victory in Québec. His versatility makes him a threat here as well. His biggest challenge will come in deciding if/when to follow the inevitable attacks off the front in the finale. He has the form to win, but he’ll need to play it perfectly because no one will want to work with him late in the race.
Greg Van Avermaet will likely have similar problems, but he may have a slightly better chance of sneaking away. Plus, he’s been racing in Montréal for several years in a row and should have a really strong sense of how things are playing out in the race. That’s clutch, it’s a big reason why he’s my top favorite (if only by a hair).
Rui Costa also has plenty of experience here. Though he doesn’t have quite the finishing kick of Sagan or Van Avermaet, he’s still pretty quick, he’s a better climber than either of them, and he’s just as tactically savvy. He’s a threat to win, as is his teammate Diego Ulissi. Bauke Mollema strikes me as a rider who will hope for a similar finishing scenario (a very small group) giving his nice climbing ability and underrated speed.
Tim Wellens won’t have the luxury of relying on a sprint, and won’t be able to utilize the element of surprise this year either, but I still like his chances, especially as a podium contender. He looked good in Québec. Lotto-Soudal also has Jürgen Roelandts and Tiesj Benoot.
Julian Alaphilippe will get another nice opportunity after making multiple attempts to escape the bunch in Québec. If he’s feeling similarly aggressive, the parcours here will smile on his attacks. Plus, he’s great in a straight-up sprint should it come to that. Petr Vakoc and Matteo Trentin are good alternatives for Etixx.
Michael Matthews is the only sprinter that I see with a decent shot at this race. It’ll be a tall order for him to hold out all the way to the line in the lead group of a controlled race, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility and he’s got a great chance of winning if this does come down to a decent-sized sprint. Michael Albasini and Adam Yates are other options for Orica-BikeExchange.
Romain Bardet, Fabio Aru, Geraint Thomas, Gianni Moscon, Rafal Majka, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Rigoberto Urán, the surprising Alberto Bettiol, Anthony Roux, and Oliver Naesen are others to watch Sunday.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Rui Costa, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Tim Wellens, Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Bardet, Michael Matthews, Bauke Mollema, Rigoberto Urán, Diego Ulissi
Photo by Jason Spaceman (CC).