Author: VeloHuman

Tour de France 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Arpajon-sur-Cère › Montauban – 190.5km

One last flat-ish day before the climber’s get their chance to shine, stage 6 is almost certainly one for the sprinters, who won’t want to miss this opportunity before the mountains.

The three categorized climbs all come relatively early and the stage is neither short nor overly long. In other words, it’s hard to find too much to say about this profile that will keep the sprinters from contesting the finish.

Three sprint stages into the Tour, I can’t really say with much confidence that any one sprinter is head and shoulders above the rest. I still see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel as being pretty closely matched. I’ll go with Kittel as a slight favorite here. With a good leadout I still think he’s the fastest guy in the race, though Cav looks like a close second and Greipel a close third.

In Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, and Sam Bennett, the Tour peloton has plenty of potential spoilers as well. Also keep an eye on young Edward Theuns, who has looked really good so far in this race.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 7, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Limoges › Le Lioran – 216km

Wednesday’s stage is one of the more unpredictable days in this Tour. The profile is hilly enough to put the sprinters out of contention, and it could spring an early breakaway or a late attack to success. The final 40km involve four categorized climbs and a uncategorized uphill finish that favors the puncheurs.

At first glance, a few days ago, I thought this would be breakaway day for sure, but the race situation may dictate otherwise. With Peter Sagan in the yellow jersey and GC teams that have looked interested in battling for every inch at the front of the bunch so far, I see it more as a 50/50 proposition.

Should the pack contest the finish, there are a few clear favorites. Sagan is one of them. The finish might actually favor punchier types better but Sagan has looked very impressive all season and it’s hard to put anything past him.

Julian Alaphilippe should like the look of the stage. The late climbs will thin out most of the faster finishers and the uphill finale will suit him very well. Etixx teammate Dan Martin has a shot too.

Alejandro Valverde is of course a potential stage winner with this finish, though it’s hard to say whether Movistar will want him pushing too hard to achieve his own goals.

The profile might be a tad too challenging for Michael Matthews, on the other hand, but he’s worth keeping an eye on. His teammate Simon Gerrans may like the parcours more.

Tony Gallopin is typically very strong on this sort of finish, especially with the succession of climbs at the end of the day. The same could be said for Greg Van Avermaet. Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, and Bauke Mollema are others with a decent shot in a reduced sprint.

Stephen Cummings and Thomas De Gendt stand out as strong breakaway candidates for Stage 5. This early in the race, it’s hard to say who is gunning for the long-range moves, but those two are among the clear possible breakers on just about any stage. Simon Geschke and Sylvain Chavanel are also options.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. Alejandro Valverde

July 6, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Saumur › Limoges – 237.5km

Tuesday’s stage is rather similar to Monday’s: long and mostly flat. It’s actually the longest stage of this year’s Tour, and yet the profile contains just one forgettable Cat. 4 climb. The most important topographical feature comes at the finish, where the road angles upward slightly for the final 500 meters.

The profile is pretty sprinter-friendly so it’s hard to see anyone other than the speedsters as top favorites, though the length could shake things up a bit. 237.5km puts this into the realm of a one-day classic, and that could leave some of the less versatile sprinters a bit worn out by the end of the day.

As such, I like André Greipel to win the stage. He came so close to the win in Stage 3, proving his strong form, and I think Stage 4 suits him a bit bitter, now that he’s shown some ability in the classics.

That said, Mark Cavendish has to be considered a strong contender to take his third win of the Tour. He’s obviously in top shape, and his teammates have proven themselves worthy supporters in the bunch kicks.

The third member of the top sprinting trio in this Tour, Marcel Kittel, found himself out of position in Stage 3 but that doesn’t mean he’s not in-form. Tuesday’s route might be a bit long for the German but not so long that I’m counting him out.

On the other hand, Peter Sagan‘s chances look great on this parcours. The slight uphill drag in the finale suits him quite well, as does the distance. I think he’s probably got a better shot than Kittel with all those factors in mind.

Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Greg Van Avermaet, and Edward Theuns are other speedy options who should really like the look of the profile—this is just the sort of route that gives them a chance to steal a sprint win from the Cavs and the Kittels.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. André Greipel | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 5, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Granville › Angers – 223.5km

After a brief interlude of excitement on Stage 2, the Tour gets back to sprinter-friendly racing in Stage 3. It’s a long one at 223.5-kilometers, but the only categorized climb is a Cat. 4, 25km in. After that, it’s mostly flat all the way to the finish, where the road does angle upward ever so slightly at around 2.5% for the final kilometer.

Coming into the race I saw this as a Marcel Kittel day with André Greipel close behind (thanks to the stage length), but then Mark Cavendish went and took Stage 1. Still, it’s early. Too early to anoint anyone the clear top dog in the bunch kicks just yet.

Kittel looked strong at Utah Beach, and Greipel was at least in the mix, so I’ll stick with my initial impression for now. Of course, it would be no surprise at all to see Cavendish take this.

The distance could boost Peter Sagan‘s chances a bit. He was very strong in the Stage 2 finale, but perhaps even more impressive was his third-place finish in Stage 1. That bodes well for the sprint stages to come.

Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Bryan Coquard, Sam Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen, and John Degenkolb could also feature in the bunch sprint likely to close out Stage 3.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 4, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Saint-Lô › Cherbourg-en-Cotentin – 183km

The Tour’s second stage will be another day for the stagehunters, but it should be the punchy types contesting the win in the finale instead of the sprinters. The parcours is not particularly challenging, but the placement of two uphill stretches late in the stage will thin the pack and potentially spring attacks.

Just over a kilometer from the finish, the bunch will crest a 1.9km, 6.5% Cat. 3 climb. Then, after a short flat stretch, the riders will take on a 700m section of 5.7% running in to the line. Again, nothing all that challenging, but steep enough to bring the lighter speedsters to the fore ahead of the pure sprinters.

Peter Sagan should enjoy the profile. He looked very strong in a finish made more for the likes of Mark Cavendish Saturday, and he’ll be the rider to beat on these gradients.

Michael Matthews is probably his top challenger. We haven’t seen much from the Australian this season, but there’s not really any reason to believe he won’t be up for this stage, which should suit him well. Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are both fine alternatives for Orica-BikeExchange.

Greg Van Avermaet bested Sagan in an uphill Tour stage finish last year and I like his chances here. Edvald Boasson Hagen crashed in Stage 1 but if he’s feeling okay he’s another potential contender.

Dan Martin and Julian Alaphilippe could get involved as well—it’s hard to say whether the finish is steep enough, but the pairing of climbs could help whittle things down enough to bring either one of them into the equation.

Tony Gallopin, Alejandro Valverde, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Joaquím Rodríguez are other riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

July 3, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel › Utah Beach Sainte-Marie-du-Mont – 188km

The Tour’s opening stage should be one for the sprinter’s, with coastal crosswinds looking like the only potential obstacle standing in the way of the speedsters. The profile itself is quite flat, tailormade for a bunch kick, but windy conditions could force splits in the pack. Even if that does happen, however, I still expect a sprint to close out this stage, with the wind mostly serving to thin the list of contenders.

Marcel Kittel stands atop that list. He may have had a rough 2015 Tour, but he’s been terrific this season, leading me to believe he’s back to the level that saw him dominate the sprints the two years prior. He also rides for Etixx now, and if there’s one team likely to make something happen in the wind, it’s the Belgian super-squad.

Kittel’s top challengers should be, of course, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish. I’d probably rank Cavendish slightly ahead of Greipel because I see the Manxman as having better pure speed in peak form—but he hasn’t shown it off in high-level races yet this season. As such, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to me if he were a bit off the mark.

Behind those big three, expect Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, John Degenkolb, and Bryan Coquard to be fighting for the surprise win. But unless there a big split in the crosswinds, I have a hard time seeing any of them taking the day.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 2, 2016