Author: VeloHuman

Stage 18: Requena › Gandía – 200.6km

Stage 18 is reminiscent of Stage 16, with a profile that involves a lot of descending and a flat finish. The parcours should be forgiving enough to allow the sprinters a shot at the stage win, which would make the outcome reminiscent of Stage 16 as well.

Jempy Drucker was quiet in the first few stages of the Vuelta, but it’s hard to overlook him now that he’s proven his form. He took advantage of Etixx’s poorly timed leadout to win Stage 16, but it wasn’t all that close, leading me to believe that he should be capable of another victory even without help from his opponents.

That said, Gianni Meersman has generally looked strong in this race and his squad should be capable of executing a leadout better than they did Monday. A well-shepherded Meersman is capable of beating anyone here.

Jonas van Genechten hasn’t put his strength on display again in this Vuelta since taking his stage win, but he’s certainly a threat. Nikias Arndt is too, though he’s been far less impressive than I expected at the start of the race. Kristian Sbaragli, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Fabio Felline are others to keep an eye on for a potential sprint.

Given the length of the stage and its position on the overall Vuelta itinerary (with just three stages left), it is entirely possible that the sprinters’ teams drop the ball here. Should that happen, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Jan Bakelants, and Niki Terpstra are names to remember.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Jempy Drucker | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Nikias Arndt

Stage 17: Castellón › Llucena – 177.5km

The Vuelta peloton gets a rude welcome in its return from a rest day. Wednesday’s stage is one for the climbers, with two early Cat. 2s, a Cat. 3 whose official length of 11.2km ignores an uphill lead-in of several kilometers, and a very steep Cat. 1 finale.

The ramp to the finish line, though only 3.8km, has a vicious average grade of 12.5%. Expect some GC action—if anyone near the top of the leaderboard senses weakness from his rivals, a climb like this presents a great opportunity to nab time, as teammates are not particularly useful at these gradients.

As for the stage battle, I like the breakaway’s chances. The parcours will make this stage tough to control, and I expect the GC favorites to be more concerned with each other than anyone up the road. As such, anyone who can go from afar has to be considered a big threat here.

Robert Gesink has proven to be quite strong in this race, and if he gets into a breakaway here he’ll be tough to beat. Of the riders likely to be getting into the breaks in this Vuelta, he’s shown the best combination of ability and current form, and his grand tour skillset makes him deadly on a brutal finishing climb like this.

Gianluca Brambilla could also challenge for a stage win. He rode masterfully in Stage 15 to show off the excellent shape he’s in, and this finish suits him well.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active getting into moves so far, and he should like the finishing climb. He’s always been adept at putting the hammer down for a late solo move and that should suit him well on a short final climb.

Ben Hermans, Thomas De Gendt, Mathias Frank, Kenny Elissonde, Dries Devenyns, Egor Silin, Louis Meintjes, Pierre Latour, and the now-no-longer-in-GC-contention Leopold König are others to keep an eye on here.

If it’s the GC contenders battling for the stage, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious candidates for success (and I like Froome just a bit better), but I see some of the riders a bit further down the leaderboard as the likeliest stage winners. As Froome and Quintana may be busy watching each other on the final climb, either Esteban Chaves or Simon Yates could sneak away. Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez can’t be overlooked either.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Robert Gesink | 2. Gianluca Brambilla | 3. Esteban Chaves

Stage 16: Alcañiz › Peñíscola – 156.4km

After a zany mountain stage Sunday, the GC contenders should get a chance to take it easy in Stage 16. After 90km mostly uphill kilometers punctuated by a single Cat. 3, the road descends toward the Mediterranean coast and a flat final 15km. The topography will have the sprinters excited to finally be in the spotlight again after several straight days of hills and mountains.

Barring a serious dropping of the ball (though that is entirely possible), the stage battle will come down to a bunch kick. Gianni Meersman has been the most successful sprinter so far in the Vuelta, and he’ll absolutely be worth watching in the finale given the form he’s shown so far in Spain. But there are a few other riders I like to challenge him given the easy parcours.

Nikias Arndt doesn’t have Meersman’s strong climbing legs, but he probably won’t need them here. This should be a day for the pure speedsters, and Arndt has a good track record in bona fide sprints against some notable riders—in peak form, he’s probably the fastest rider here. He’s had a pretty disappointing run in the Vuelta so far but this is a good opportunity to get on track.

Kristian Sbaragli should be in the mix as well. It’s been a quieter year than was expected for Sbaragli, but in this field he’s got to be among the top favorites regardless.

Jonas Van Genecthen is a bit of a late bloomer as quick men go, claiming a maiden grand tour sprint win less than a month before turning 30, but he deserves to be in the conversation after his Stage 7 win. Magnus Cort Nielsen, Daniele Bennati, Jens Keukeleire, Fabio Felline, Jempy Drucker, and Michael Schwarzmann are others to watch.

Should the sprint teams let this one get away from them, look out for the likes of Luis León Sánchez, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Thomas De Gendt to try a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Nikias Arndt | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Kristian Sbaragli