Author: VeloHuman

Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Preview

With E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the books, the Tour of Flanders is almost here. Sans Fabian Cancellara (and Tom Boonen, though he would not have enjoyed the same level of favorite status as Cancellara even if he were here) the 2015 Ronde looks especially open, which should make for quite a race.

The Route

At 264 kilometers, the Tour of Flanders is a long one, and the arduous journey gets more and more difficult as the day wears on. The peloton will set out from scenic Bruges and head south towards the cobbled climbs that this race has made so famous. The route contains seventeen officially classified climbs this year, many of them repeat trips up the same ascents, as the course starts looping into itself and covering the same ground again for multiple visits to these famous hellingen.

The final string of climbs that runs from roughly kilometer 219 to kilometer 251 are the likely battleground where this race will play out. Over the top of brutal challenges like the Koppenberg, after already having been up and over so many of these cobbles all day, the peloton is likely to break apart. And if things aren’t already shattered to pieces by the time the peloton hits the final climbs of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, the attacks are certain to fly on the long drag of the former and the vicious steepness of the latter.

After the descent from the Paterberg, it’s a mostly straight run to the line, meaning that anyone hoping to whittle down the lead group is going to look to act before the final few kilometers.

The Contenders

It’s a wide open field for the Tour of Flanders this season, with four or five riders enjoying roughly equivalent favorite status and a host of others nipping at their heels. LottoNL’s Sep Vanmarcke is certainly among the top contenders. The Belgian cobbled specialist was 3rd here in 2014 and despite never quite coming away with that big win he’s been searching for in his career, he’s displayed the grit, the bike handling, the climbing chops, and the explosive required to make a bid for glory here. The results in the run-up races of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem haven’t quite been where he would have hoped, with others appearing stronger out on the road in both events, but this is the real prize for Vanmarcke and he seems like an excellent rider to watch as the final Kwaremont-Paterberg double approaches.

Similarly versatile is Zdenek Stybar of Etixx-QuickStep, who happens to also have a true powerhouse of talent supporting him team-wise. Stybar looks to be the best of the EQS riders for this race because, among the Classics stars on this QuickStep roster, he best combines climbing legs and a powerful finishing kick. But Niki Terpstra and especially Stijn Vandenbergh, 4th here last year and extremely savvy racing these roads, give the team options. Expect to see attacks flying from all sides late in this race.

Team Sky also brings firepower with their many talented stars on the roster, with Geraint Thomas leading the way. Among the strongest climbers in this Ronde, Thomas is on terrific form right now as evidenced by his win at E3 and his follow-up 3rd place at Gent-Wevelgem. Being able to rely on Ian Stannard and Bradley Wiggins will help. With a pair of Top 10s here already on his resume and a recent win in a race that incorporated many of the same climbs, Thomas has the experience necessary to take on this race as a top favorite and it would be a big surprise not to see him try something on one of the final climbs. The question is whether he’ll be able to shed his top rivals who might give him a run for his money in a small sprint.

One rider certain to be hoping that this race ends with a small group sprinting for the win is Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan. Flying more under the radar right now than maybe he was expecting to be due to a general lack of results this year, Sagan might have a bit of an advantage that he doesn’t usually enjoy; so often, his plans are foiled immediately because all of his rivals are eying him at all times. This year, with the focus on other riders, Sagan may have a chance to make something happen the way he wants to. The form hasn’t been too bad, and this is a major objective, so he can’t be ignored even though he hasn’t been lighting it up coming into the Ronde this year.

After a crash at E3, where his skillset would have made him one of the likely top contenders at the business end of the race, Greg Van Avermaet might be flying under the radar a bit as well. But he seems to have recovered from his fall and he has been in excellent shape so far this year. 2nd here last year and a more capable sprinter than most, he may be able to look for the right wheels to follow this year rather than launching one of his trademark “almost-good-enough” attacks. Daniel Oss makes for a terrific teammate.

Speaking of terrific teammates, Alexander Kristoff will be in good hands with Luca Paolini at his side as well. In Katusha’s pre-race press conference, Paolini was very clear in his support of Kristoff, and that solidarity will be a great boon for the Norwegian. It won’t be easy to keep this together for a sprint (which is what Kristoff will need to win here) but Kristoff is tougher than most and with Paolini to help close down attacks if necessary, he has a fighting chance. So too does John Degenkolb, who may not have much of a history in this race but who has shown that he can climb well (winning plenty of hilly, intermediate-stage type races in the past) and ride cobbles well (winning Gent-Wevelgem in 2014 and taking 2nd in Paris-Roubaix that year) which are the necessary requirements to hanging on here. Given the difficult nature of this race and the wide open field likely to see constant attacks, I think the sprinters will have a very hard time here, but Kristoff and Degenkolb are the two obvious riders to watch in that potential scenario.

Jürgen Roelandts, who proved his great form with a bold solo move in Gent-Wevelgem, also packs a quick finish and that makes him dangerous here, with the surprising Jens Debusschere as an alternative. Stijn Devolder will head up Trek’s Flanders campaign in the absence of Fabian Cancellara. Cannondale-Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld was a late addition to the startlist, recovering from a recent crash; he’s a great talent in unknown shape right now. Astana’s Lars Boom, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and a stable of young Topsport Vlaanderen talents that includes Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns are among the outsiders who will hope to contend.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Geraint Thomas
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jürgen Roelandts, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more roadside analysis during the race. Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, with pre-race insight from Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, and Patrick Lefevere.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mick Knapton.

April 4, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 7: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on Belgium’s biggest race, the Tour of Flanders, with plenty of insider insight from a few people likely to play a major role in the event.
[powerpress]

VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces again to present the Recon Ride Ronde van Vlaanderen Pre-race Show, with more insider knowledge than ever, thanks to interviews with race favorites Sep Vanmarcke and Geraint Thomas and EQS CEO Patrick Lefevere.

Photo by Ctankcycles.

April 3, 2015
Lefevere Maintains Mostly Positive Outlook After Another Near Miss at Gent-Wevelgem

With Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra in a small lead group in the final 10 kilometers of Gent-Wevelgem, EQS seemed to have control of the race with a deadly 1-2 punch. But Luca Paolini launched a powerful attack with around 6 kilometers left in the stage, and not even the combined might of Vandenbergh, Terpstra, and the rest of the small lead group could reel him in. Terpstra ultimately crossed the line 2nd, Vandenbergh 4th. Just as had been the case for the Belgian super-squad in last month’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, EQS failed to turn an advantage into a victory.

Talking to VeloHuman after Gent-Wevelgem, Etixx-QuickStep CEO Patrick Lefevere did not see the form of his riders as a problem.

“I think the condition of the top riders is okay. I think maybe we’re the strongest riders in the bunch at the moment, if you look from Omloop Het Nieuwsblad until now, seeing the crash in the descent of the Poggio and Milan-San Remo, losing Stybar and Kwiatkowski, and then all the other races, we’re always on the podium,” Lefevere told VH. “Nieuwsblad 2nd, 3rd, 4th, winning Kuurne, the World Champion did a really great performance at Waregem, Harelbeke again, very strong, but every time, just somebody’s stronger.”

The team tactics were rather questionable at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but here in Gent-Wevelgem, the insurmountable strength of Luca Paolini and a perfectly-timed attack by the Italian seemed to be the main obstacle to EQS success. The early abandonment of their Plan A, Mark Cavendish, and a steady stream of mechanicals all day did not help the situation. Lefevere seems to attribute the dearth of wins despite so many top placings to bad luck more than anything, and because of it, he is not as disappointed as he might otherwise be given the number of near misses: “I like winning of course, but seeing the bad luck we have, I think I cannot complain,” Lefevere said.

With the show of strength the team made today (and has made over the last several races), even if the victories have not come as readily as Etixx-QuickStep would have hoped, they will be the squad with the most legitimate contenders for next week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen, with Terpsta, Vandenbergh, and especially Zdenek Stybar all looking like viable options to challenge for the Monument victory.

The team showed at Gent-Wevelgem as they have shown time and again in the past that they are one of the strongest teams in the peloton in poor weather conditions, and if the rain and incredible winds of Gent-Wevelgem manage to stick around until the Tour of Flanders, it might seem a boon to the chances of the Belgian squad so proficient at riding in the crosswinds. Lefevere, however, was not too welcoming of the bad weather, despite his squad’s obvious favorable reaction to the conditions, saying that he hoped next week be “not as windy as today.”

“I don’t know if this was okay today,” he said. “I think if people get hurt because they’re blown away from the roads . . . there are limits.”

-Dane Cash

March 29, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015: Race Day Thoughts from André Greipel, Sam Bennett, and Heinrich Haussler

VeloHuman caught up with a few of the potential protagonists of Gent-Wevelgem just before the start of the race to get some inside-the-peloton insight on the race and the day’s nasty conditions.

André Greipel (Lotto Soudal)

How do you prepare in the run-up to a race like this, when you’re looking to take that big Classics win?

The race is a bit different. . . . Unfortunately I got sick after Algarve so I had to have a break for a while. Now we have to make the best out of it. And of course, the conditions today, it’s the same for everyone. But it would be nice to win a race like Gent-Wevelgem.

How do the wind and the rain affect your hope that this race ends in a sprint?

It’s about the teams, and how strong the teams are. Of course there will be a lot of echelons today, and we’re going to see, and we hope we will be up there.

Who else will you have your eye on as rivals?

We have to work as a team. Until the end of the race, it’s really dangerous to get a disadvantage if others are doing an echelon, so we have to be concentrated on our team.

Sam Bennett (Bora-Argon 18)

How are you feeling in this weather?

Phew, I dunno. We’ll find out in a few more minutes. I don’t know. From the start it will be very difficult. It will be a long day. And with the weather, it makes it a lot colder, so we’ll just see how the body reacts.

What is the team plan for the day?

Just stay in good position all day, because you don’t know what’s going to happen in these races, you don’t know when they’re going to sprint, and try to be there for the end for the sprint. I think it’s going to be a select group, so hopefully we’ll be there.

You had a big win last month in Qatar. Still feeling on the same level?

I feel stronger, but I need a bit of luck to be in the right place at the right time I suppose.

Heinrich Haussler (IAM Cycling)

Thoughts on the weather?

It’s fucking shit. It’s fucking terrible, and it’s just going to get worse as we get near the coast.

How are the legs?

The legs are okay, it’s just always a matter of having good position in these types of races, having a bit of luck, no flat tires, no crashes. Hopefully that will be the case today.

-Dane Cash

March 29, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Barcelona › Barcelona – 126.6 km

After yet another surprise stage winner on the sixth day of the race (Sergey Chernetskiy won from the breakaway), it’s fitting that the Volta a Catalunya should close out with an unpredictable Stage 7. The 126.6-kilometer route will take the peloton in and around Barcelona, the Catalonian capital, and the profile is punctuated by eight trips up the Alt de Montjuïc, a 2 kilometer ascent with a 5.7% average gradient. After each climb comes a winding descent that leads back into the foot of the next journey upward, except for the final one, which runs right down to the finish line.

The up-and-down nature of the second half of the stage makes this a terrific day for the breakaway riders; the pack will have a hard time controlling the race with so many tempo changes and twists and turns near the finish. The eight-climbs-of-the-Montjuïc finale was used in both of the past two editions of the Volta and breakaway riders took it both times. Still, things are so tight on the overall leaderboard, and that the bonus seconds on offer here will be enticing for those looking to take this race out of Richie Porte’s hands; in short, as hard as it will be to maintain a hold on this race, many strong teams in the peloton will be motivated to do so.

Should the breakaway make it three straight years of success, look for riders like Tejay van Garderen, Tom Danielson, Maciej Paterski, and Jonathan Hivert to try to get one more day of hard work out of their legs after already putting in a lot of mileage off the front already. Giampaolo Caruso, far enough behind on GC that he might be given a bit of freedom, could be a good rider to watch here as well, on a parcours that suits his strong kick. Samuel Sánchez is another rider who is great on the short climbs and outside of GC contention; BMC has been working hard to get as much out of this race as possible, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give Sánchez the green light to make a move if van Garderen is finally feeling a little winded after another difficult day. The stage also suits Enrico Gasparotto, Julien Simon, and Martin Elmiger.

Regardless of whether they’re fighting for stage honors, the GC riders will have their hands full here, with so much climbing and descending. If they do manage to reel in the breakaway and fight for the victory, an in-form Alejandro Valverde is again a good pick to win another day. Explosive Dan Martin and fast-finishing Rigoberto Urán and Wilco Kelderman are others on the GC leaderboard who are likely to battle it out here if it comes down to the overall race contenders.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Giampaolo Caruso | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015