Author: VeloHuman

Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Cervera › Port Aventura – 194.1 km

Stage 5 of the Volta a Catalunya was yet another day of GC action, with Alejandro Valverde soloing to victory ahead of a select group of riders, but the profile of Stage 6 will have the sprinters finally hoping for a chance to make their mark on the race. The long, low-gradient Alt de Prades in the middle of the stage won’t be an easy jaunt for anyone, but with about 70 kilometers after the top of the climb until the beginning of the next categorized challenge, anyone who struggles on the Cat. 1 will have plenty of opportunity to get back into the mix. That next categorized challenge is a short Cat. 3 crested over 30 kilometers from the line. From there, it’s a fast downhill followed by about 20 km of flat.

The late climb and steep descent towards the end of the day will certainly entice the punchier riders in the bunch, but several sprinters made their way to Catalunya hoping to come away with WorldTour stage victories, and one has to think that after so many days escaping their fast-finishing grasps, those quick men will be gunning for this stage, where a relative dearth of climbs will give them a chance.

Still, some uphill ability will be required to come to the line fresh. Bryan Coquard, very fast in a pure sprint but also capable of going up and over the occasional climb, is the prime pick. With Pierre Rolland out of the GC picture, Europcar should be throwing their full weight behind Coquard now.

Luka Mezgec is another strong pick, also very fast in a pure sprint. Unlike Coquard, he’s won several WorldTour-level sprints in his career, and against the young up-and-comer (who does tend to have positioning issues), that experience could come in handy.

Julian Alaphilippe gets a mention practically every day, but he hasn’t delivered just yet. Still, he’ll be more capable of surviving the pressure of late attacks by the GC riders than most of the other quick men here. The same is true for JJ Rojas, but Movistar clearly isn’t done backing Alejandro Valverde in this race just yet.

Speaking of Valverde, he’s certainly a contender again on Stage 6, where the late ramp will offer him a chance to break up the race, or at least shed some sprinter weight. As usual, Dan Martin, Rigoberto Urán, and Wilco Kelderman are others to watch if the final lead group is reduced too much to feature any sprinters.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Julian Alaphilippe

-Dane Cash

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

March 27, 2015
Sagan’s Surprise Power Failure Leaves Stybar Following the Wrong Wheel in E3 Harelbeke Finale

When the gap between a dwindling E3 Harelbeke peloton and Peter Sagan, Geraint Thomas, and Zdenek Stybar had gone out to around one minute as the riders approached the finish line, it became clear that a victory in first Belgian Classic of the 2015 WorldTour would soon grace the palmares of one of the three riders up the road. One of them, Peter Sagan, had already won the race the year prior by outsprinting a small group of companions at the line, a group that included another member of the trio now fighting for this year’s honors, Geraint Thomas.

Given Sagan’s impressive array of abilities, it was only natural for the third member of the trio to be focusing on the Slovakian defending champion in the waning moments of this year’s race over a rider he’d beaten here last year. But Zdenek Stybar’s decision to mark Sagan at the 2015 E3 Harelbeke did not pay off. Geraint Thomas launched a powerful attack in the last few kilometers of the race, and Stybar immediately got on Sagan’s wheel thinking the younger rider would give chase—but Sagan was cooked, and he faded immediately, leaving Stybar to launch an unsuccessful attempt to bridge a gap that had now grown too far.

“I expected that Sagan would be a bit stronger, but he wasn’t,” Zdenek Stybar said after the race.

Few would fault Stybar for such an expectation. Unfortunately for the former world cyclocross champion, the tremendous strength of Thomas left no room for error in the E3 finale.

“He was really, really impressive the last four kilometers. I knew that if he went, I’d have to jump in his wheel but I thought that Sagan would do the same, and he didn’t have the legs anymore.”

Sagan was not able to offer much of an explanation as to his sudden loss of power; in a post-race interview outside the Tinkoff-Saxo bus, he seemed at a loss for words when asked what had transpired, saying that something had “turned off.”

“I felt good on Kwaremont but after, it was still a far way to go to the finish,” he said. Somewhere in between that difficult climb and the final 4 kilometers, Sagan ran out of gas. However it happened, and whenever he realized that he was scraping the bottom of the barrel, his surprise power failure was a pivotal moment in the race.

After narrowly missing out on E3, Stybar and Sagan are already looking to next week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen, where the absence of one of two would-be top contenders (Fabian Cancellara and Tom Boonen) will certainly alter the narrative of the race. But when asked about what the upcoming Tour of Flanders might be like with its now somewhat reduced cast of star protagonists, both Stybar and Sagan were quick to point out there was plenty of competition still out there.

“There are still enough guys who want to win the race,” said Stybar.

“There’s also a lot of other riders who are really strong and we’ll have to see in the race,” said Sagan.

In a day full of surprises, that agreement in the opinions of the two riders should not be much of a surprise: they both had front row seats to the show put on by one of strongest of those other riders today, one who will be hungry for more success in next week’s Ronde.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Reginald Dierckx.

March 27, 2015
E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Alp › Valls – 195.4 km

After a few days of mountain climbs, punctuated by Tejay van Garderen’s emphatic stage win at the La Molina ski resort on Stage 4, the Volta a Catalunya heads back towards sea level on Stage 5. The first half of the day comprises mostly downhill roads. A long, low-gradient, uncategorized climb to Belltall awaits after kilometer 140, followed by another descent that lasts until just after kilometer 180, where the peloton will hit the day’s only categorized climb, the Alt de Lilla, 4.1 kilometers at a 4.8% average gradient. From there it’s a steep downhill almost all the way to the finish line.

The lack of space after the final descent will make this an enticing target for the punchier, aggressive types, but last year’s Valls stage went to Luka Mezgec ahead of Julian Alaphilippe and Samuel Dumoulin in a sprint. Still, with things so close on the General Classification, and bonus seconds on the line that could change the outcome of the overall, expect to see some attacks flying here. In short, this stage could come down to a bunch sprint, it could come down to a reduced sprint, or it could go to a bold attacker off the front; I would characterize each potential outcome as about equally likely, making this a tough stage to call in a race that has already been full of surprises so far.

JJ Rojas is versatile enough to survive some selection on the climbs and he is in great sprinting shape at the moment. With Valverde a bit out of the frame in the GC picture, Rojas might be able to hunt for results without looking over his shoulder as frequently to see if the team leader is nearby and hunting for bonus seconds. This is a nice opportunity for him.

Julian Alaphilippe also has decent climbing legs and a great finishing kick. If this comes down to a sprint, he should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec knows how to win here and he’ll look to stay near the front of the pack towards the stage to battle it out in a potential bunch sprint. Bryan Coquard came into the Volta looking strong and this is a good profile for him, as he is extremely fast but also capable of surviving a climb, but it hasn’t been a great race for him so far. Still he could turn it around in this finale.

As has already been said in VH’s race previews, look for Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Wilco Kelderman, and Rigoberto Urán (roughly in order of sprinting prowess, though Valverde is undoubtedly scraping the bottom of the barrel for energy at this point after coming here directly from Milano-Sanremo) to fight it out for stage honors if action on the last climb sheds the sprinters from the peloton. In fact, any of those riders could also be the instigators of said action. Enrico Gasparotto, Cyril Gautier, and Martin Elmiger are among the punchier riders who might be able to stick with aggressive GC riders or who could even launch attacks of their own.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. JJ Rojas | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]

Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.

Photo by shirokazan.

March 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Tona › La Molina – 188.4 km

The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).

Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.

As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.

The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.

Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.

Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis!

March 25, 2015