VeloHuman

Author: VeloHuman

  • Tour Down Under 2014 Post-race Impressions: Big Names Battle for the Year’s First Big Win

    BehindCadel

    Recapping 2014’s First WorldTour Race

    When the season is in high gear I’ll only be recapping the bigger races or the blocks of bigger races (ie., the Ardennes week), but there are over thirty WorldTour-less days ahead and the six day race that finished in Adelaide on Sunday is more than worthy of some analysis. As such, I’ve compiled a few takeaways from the big January event.

    Any sort of retrospective on the Tour Down Under that aims to draw conclusions with meaningful predictive power ought to make a clear disclaimer before offering any emphatic endorsements of this rider or that for the new year: due to its position on the calendar, more than a month before the next race at the highest level of the sport, the Tour Down Under is not always a reliable test of rider form for a new season. Cameron Meyer, who won the 2011 edition, and Tom-Jelte Slagter, winner of the 2013 TDU, proceeded to have anonymous seasons after their bright victories in Australia to start the season. Simon Gerrans, on the other hand, went on to nab his first career Monument classic victory after he won the 2012 edition of the race. In other words, perhaps the top form exhibited again by Gerrans this week is a sign of future success (and he is targeting Milano-San Remo again this year), or perhaps it is a poor indicator of probable form months from now: the point is simply that one ought to be careful drawing too many conclusions from this race.

    The Narrative, and Takeaways from the Race

    Caveats made, on with the analysis. The GC-leading quartet of Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, and Richie Porte were all particularly impressive in their 2014 WorldTour debuts. Only one second separated 1st and 2nd place, and only ten seconds separated 1st and 4th; all four won stages. Gerrans was a big favorite coming into the race (tipped by yours truly to win), and the other three were also included in VeloHuman’s pre-race top 10, so it can’t be said that there was all that much surprising at the very top of the General Classification. For what it’s worth, Gerrans looked on top form and displayed his trademark versatility, climbing with the best and sprinting for every possible second; should he maintain that form into the spring, the rest of the peloton had better watch out. Said versatility nabbed him the bonus seconds necessary to get the tiniest of legs up on Cadel Evans for the overall victory. Evans and Richie Porte both put in strong performances showing their own high level of form. Both are targeting later season Grand Tour success, and this certainly looks to have been a fine start; Porte looks to be aiming for success at the Giro this year, and after seeing potential main Giro Nairo Quintana take an emphatic win in the Tour de San Luis this week, the Sky rider will be happy to have had some success of his own in the meantime.

    PorteWinning

    Of the foursome that quickly become the group of real contenders in this race, Diego Ulissi stands out to me as the rider whose performance is most worthy of a place in any analysis of this race’s “takeaways.” In 2011, the Italian put himself on the map with a Giro stage win, and he went on to pick up a number of smaller Italian races over the next year or so. Last year, he appeared to reach another level with a good showing in Paris-Nice and a stage win in the Tour of Poland before a hot October that saw him nab three Italian one-day race victories, including prestigious semi-classic Milano-Torino. However, so many of his successes have come either against weaker competition or at just one step below the highest level of the sport–and while his combination of explosive climbing and fast finishing have marked him out as one to watch, but he’s also disappeared on some of the larger stages. When he was not lighting up the Italian semi-classics, he was a DNF in the World Championship race and an also-ran at Il Lombardia. In the 2014 Tour Down Under, however, he went up against some of the sport’s very best and consistently performed at the elite level. He blew past Evans and Gerrans in Stage 2 after timing his sprint perfectly, and held onto his high place all the way through to the end, managing his podium spot with a total of four top 5 finishes in Australia, and it is that day-in, day-out consistency that he has been lacking. After this, I know I’ll be more confident tipping Ulissi to hold his own for more than a flash of brilliance in future races.

    24 year old Nathan Haas proved to be perhaps the biggest surprise of the race. Although he won the 2011 Japan Cup Cycle Road Race with his impressive finishing kick and claimed 2nd in the 2012 Tour of Britain to Jonathan Tiernan-Locke, Haas has not had many chances to shine at the WorldTour level against the biggest names around. Not until this past week, at least. When pain from a pre-race injury proved to be the end of GC hopes for Rohan Dennis, Garmin-Sharp didn’t miss a beat, and Nathan Haas stepped right up to the plate. While he’s obviously showed ability in the past, I think it’s safe to say that not many people expected him to finish in the top 20 of every stage in the Tour Down Under, including a second place finish at the head of the bunch sprint behind Cadel Evans on stage 3. His consistent performance landed him 5th overall in the Tour. It will be interesting to see if Garmin quickly gives him another opportunity to follow up on his stellar trip home to Australia. Hopefully, we will have a chance to watch Haas building on this week again soon.

    Geraint Thomas wasn’t really a surprise in the top 10, but it was nice to see him climbing at such a high level. As I said in the initial preview, I feel that much is said about Geraint Thomas despite a general lack of data, but his 8th place here, only a few seconds behind proven climber Robert Gesink, is another positive showing, especially given the fact the Sky was clearly riding for Richie Porte in this race. Daryl Impey, as well, wasn’t a big surprise in the top 10, but to land in that company while also riding in such successful support for Simon Gerrans is no small feat–Impey has really put together a fine last twelve months, and Orica-GreenEdge has surely taken note. Look to see Impey feature more as the main man for the Australian squad in races to come this year.

    Though his legend has grown as he has built an amazing streak of consecutive Grand Tour appearances, Adam Hansen has only claimed a few major successes in his career (most notably, a Giro stage last year). However, the Australian nabbed the King of the Mountains jersey and a spot in the top 10 overall in the Tour Down Under with a noteworthy combination of the aggressive style necessary to pick up mountain points in a break and the endurance necessary to hang on in the bunch after being swept back into the peloton. His Lotto-Belisol squad, so often a sprint-first team, has got to be pleased with the showing, and they must be looking forward to the next race knowing that Hansen has what it takes to stay out front for the long haul, proudly displaying the Lotto-Belisol logo.

    Speaking of Lotto-Belisol and sprints, there wasn’t really any question of competition in the two flat days at this year’s TDU. Andre Greipel blew away his opponents, and he did it largely thanks to his dominant leadout train. In stage 4, his leadout man Jurgen Roelandts was so strong that he finished 2nd behind Greipel himself and ahead of the designated sprinters of every other team in the race. Greipel’s stage 6 leadout was similarly impressive; from the moment he kicked it was clear the Gorilla would claim the day. Coming into the race, the sprints in this Tour looked to be a battle royale between Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel, but Kittel was anonymous throughout the week, his only success in Australia a victory at the warm-up prelude, the People’s Choice Classic. At age 31, Greipel is still riding high, and his leadout only gets better with time.

    Astana and Movistar both failed to land any of their very talented squads in the top 10, which must be a letdown for both teams; Francesco Gavazzi and Javier Moreno both started well only to be left in the dust when Cadel Evans forced serious selection on stage 3. Trek’s Frank Schleck also had a rather forgettable trip to Adelaide, unable to hang on when the going got tough. That Katusha’s squad of unknowns could place a man in the top 10 (chapeau to Egor Silin, by the way!) must not sit well with any of those teams.

    Fortunately, everyone gets another shot at glory relatively soon, as, even with a fair bit of time until the next big race, the 2014 season is officially underway. The Tour Down Under gave us a first glimpse at many of the big names in the pro peloton and the early classics should be a good opportunity for guys like Simon Gerrans and Diego Ulissi to show of continued form. Don’t forget about races like the Volta ao Algarve and the Tour Méditerranéen Cycliste Professionnel during the month and a half long drought before the next WorldTour race, Paris-Nice.

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Kym Della-Torre.

  • Tour Down Under 2014 Preview

    Nuriootpa

    Lifting the Curtain on the 2014 WorldTour

    The long offseason break is finally coming to an end. The WorldTour peloton is getting clipped back in at the 2014 Santos Tour Down Under this Tuesday in Nuriootpa (and a sizeable group is also gearing up for the Tour de San Luis in Argentina instead). While the cyclocross season draws to its conclusion in the frigid Northern Hemisphere, the WorldTour kicks off under the hot Australian sun. Since we last watched the biggest names in the sport hunting for success on the road, the cycling world has seen a few changes, as it does every year. Some big names have moved to new teams. A few new faces will make appearances at the highest level, where others have hung up the proverbial cleats. Vacansoleil and Euskaltel will be conspicuously absent from the roads Down Under, their long tenures in the pro ranks now complete. Meanwhile, Europcar has been elevated to the top level, guaranteeing that we’ll be seeing a lot more of the French squad. After so many dull days waiting for the next event, the ever popular Tour Down Under will finally offer the year’s first in-competition look at the 2014 WorldTour peloton.

    The six-stage race has gotten hillier and hillier over the past few years; there was a time when star sprinter Andre Greipel could win the General Classification (he did, twice), but that time is probably past. While there are no real mountains along the road to the finish line in Adelaide, there are several steep climbs that will force selection before the week is done.

    All-rounder Roundup

    With almost two months until the next race on the WorldTour calendar, the Tour Down Under is always a race full of uncertainty–it’s hard to tell who is on form this early in the season. Only a handful of competitions have been held thus far in the year, leaving little data worth utilizing for prediction. Fortunately, a number of the race’s biggest stars just engaged in a clash of Aussie Titans at the Australian National Championship title last week. The collection of high profile names didn’t disappoint: unsurprisingly, at the end of the day it was Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans, and Richie Porte vying for the finish line. Gerrans, whose burst has nabbed him so many wins over his career, was easily the fastest man to the line, leaving elder statesman Cadel Evans to settle for runner-up and Porte in third. Fresh off their perfomances in Nationals, the trio of Aussie riders are all numbered among the favorites for this week’s Tour Down Under, with new champion Gerrans at the head of the line.

    Even had he not just shown his current condition, Gerrans would have the make up to be considered a major contender in this race. Not only has he won it twice already, in 2006 and 2012, but the race suits him more and more these days as short, steep climbs are injected to add excitement to the contest. The former Milan-San Remo winner has explosiveness in spades, and we’re sure to see it on Corkscrew Hill in stage 3 and Old Willunga Hill in stage 5. Having demonstrated his form, Gerrans is the man to beat in his home tour, and it doesn’t hurt that he’ll have some of Oz’s finest pros backing him. He can rely on the likes of Daryl Impey and Simon Clarke as stellar support (or second choices if need be) when the going gets tough.

    TDU2012S1

    Cadel Evans, for one, won’t be going down without a fight. He still feels he has a lot left in the tank and he’ll want to use this opportunity to prove it. He may not have the punch of Gerrans, but he’s no slouch for quick speed, he’s clearly in form, and he’ll have a nice supporting cast with last year’s 5th place finisher in this event, Ben Hermans, at his side. Richie Porte, meanwhile, heads into 2014 with the loftiest ambitions of his career, setting his sights on a Grand Tour victory and hoping to claim a spot among the sport’s top stage racers. Grand Tour season is a long way off, but Porte looked good at Nationals. He doesn’t have the explosiveness or finishing move of his aforementioned compatriots, but he’s a determined contender, and he’s also quite a bit younger. Sky also has Geraint Thomas, 3rd in last year’s edition, as a second card to play, though the bumps in the road may not quite suit his skillset; still he’s a multi-talented, aggressive rider who has shown a knack for success here,and his fast finish could be vital in a race for bonus seconds. Bernie Eisel and Ian Stannard are along for support as well.

    Rohan Dennis might have been another high finisher in last weeks Australian Nationals, but he caught a bit of misfortune in the run-up to the race, crashing while time trialing. The incident did not leave him seriously injured, but it did cause him a fair bit of pain from which he is still recovering. The young all-rounder from Garmin-Sharp pulled out of the champs race but has had more time to recover since then, and he showed a very versatile array of skills in 2013. Depending on how well he has healed up, Dennis could pose a major challenge to his more established countrymen in the GC competition–he was 5th in the 2012 edition when he was just 21 years old, and he’s shown serious improvement on all levels of his game since then.

    However, a second round of Australian Nationals this race is not; it’s a WorldTour competition, and it draws serious world-class, international talent. There will be plenty of challengers, familiar and not-so-familiar, hungry to pick up the first big race of the year far from home. Last year’s winner Tom-Jelte Slagter will be absent from the startline, so a repeat victory is not in the cards for him. His former team Belkin sends one of its top talents to pick up the slack in Robert Gesink. An up-and-down 2013 ended on a rather high note when Gesink redeemed his lackluster Giro d’Italia with a surprise win in Quebec, a top 10 in Lombardy and another top 10 in the Tour of Beijing. He showed a greatly improved finishing kick in his late season success, and with Jack Bobridge (the 5th place finisher in last week’s Nationals) and two other Aussies as well as workhorse Stef Clement for backup, Gesink could be a force to be reckoned with.

    Few teams are coming to this race as stacked as Movistar, which is probably a sentence that can apply to most of their races these days. The Tour Down Under squad, however, does not include the team’s two biggest names, Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde. Instead, the group is composed of a bevy of versatile riders hungry for a chance at glory while their more well-known teammates are elsewhere. For the rest of the year, Javier Moreno will likely ride in support of said teammates, but January in Australia is the time and place for Javier Moreno to make his mark on the WorldTour. He was runner-up and King of the Mountains in the 2013 edition and 8th the year before that, and he’ll have a powerful team backing him. I’m not sure I see him standing atop the podium, but another top 10 finish seems attainable. JJ Rojas may focus more on nabbing single stages, but it’s possible that he might aim for GC as well. Giovanni Visconti could have been another strong option in this race, but he unfortunately suffered a broken leg this weekend and will be sidelined for weeks while he recovers.

    I see Jan Bakelants, riding at the head of new team Omega Pharma-Quick Step, as one of the most dangerous challengers in this race. 6th here in 2012, Bakelants really came into his own in 2013, with a stage win in the Tour de France, top 10s in the Eneco Tour and the Tour of Beijing, and a one day victory at the Grand Prix de Wallonie. In all of these events, he earned his success with strong climbing ability and a fast finish, which, as has already been mentioned, will be necessary to challenge for GC here. Also boasting top-shelf climbing punch and a fast finish, and also coming off a career year, Lampre’s Diego Ulissi is the other non-Aussie I consider among the most likely contenders in this race. Ulissi does have a habit of disappearing in big races (late last year he was a non-factor through most of the Vuelta, in the World Championship Road Race, and in Il Lombardia, while claiming a string of fantastic victories in one-day Italian races during the very same time period), but he’s shown elite talent. Having proven himself as a force to be reckoned with last year, he’ll be the guy for Lampre in this and many other races this year, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the spotlight.

    Astana is another team full of talented riders who will have a rare chance to be more than domestiques. Enrico Gasparotto, Andriy Grivko, Francesco Gavazzi, and Lieuwe Westra are all capable contenders. Gasparotto in particular has quietly established himself as a rider to watch on the punchy climbs, and Grivko finished last year with high placings in the World Championship Race and the Eneco Tour thanks to a similar skillset. Only Orica-GreenEdge can rival Astana in terms of the number of viable GC contenders at the Tour Down Under.

    To name a few others: Saxo-Tinkoff’s Rory Sutherland, Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts, Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke, AG2R’s Maxime Bouet, Cannondale’s up-and-comer from New Zealand George Bennett, FDJ’s Jussi Veikkanen and Kenny Elissonde, and, of course, Trek’s Frank Schleck, back to racing after his doping suspension–there’s no telling what sort of form he’s on, but the podium finisher in the 2011 Tour de France is obviously a strong candidate for GC if he has his legs. That’s the story behind most of these predictions really; fortunately, the wait to find out what state our contenders are in is almost over.

    Stagehunters

    The opportunities for sprinters may be lessened in recent editions of this race, but that hasn’t stopped two of the world’s big three pure sprinters from making the trip. Andre Greipel has had a great deal of success in his many trips Down Under, and his always-effective leadout train is with him, but they’ll have their hands full against Marcel Kittel and his own supporting cast. Stages 4 and 6, with flat run-ins to the finish, are the most likely to see their battle royale.

    Other fast men hoping to pick up stage wins include Elia Viviani of Cannondale, the JJs Rojas and Lobato of Movistar, the Van Poppel brothers on their new team, Trek Factory Racing, Michael Matthews and Matthew Goss of Orica-GreenEdge, Andrew Fenn and Mark Renshaw of OPQS, Garmin-Sharp’s Steele von Hoff, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, and Caleb Ewan of UniSA-Australia, to name a few. Given the importance of explosiveness in the Tour Down Under GC battle, many of those mentioned as ochre jersey hopefuls could just as easily vie for stage victories.

    Uncertainty is the name of the game in the Santos Tour Down Under, guaranteeing surprises every year (Tom-Jelte Slagter was certainly a surprise winner in 2013). As the curtain opens on the 2014 season, we can expect the unexpected in Australia–while the many big names in attendance are sure to deliver fireworks, this race tends to bring new names to the fore as well, and what better way to start a new year than with new faces looking to make their mark at the sport’s highest level.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    General Classification Winner

    Simon Gerrans

    GC Podium

    Richie Porte, Jan Bakelants

    GC Top 10

    Diego Ulissi, Cadel Evans, Javier Moreno, Robert Gesink, Enrico Gasparotto, Rohan Dennis, Geraint Thomas

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Daniel Lang and Anthony Cramp.

  • The 2014 Season Has Arrived

    It’s been radio silence for a little while here at VeloHuman during the offseason as we got some recovery time in while the riders did the same. With the Tour Down Under (and a Tour de San Luis with a very impressive field) just days away, it’s time to get back into regular season mode. You can expect the WorldTour race outlooks to be coming strong as ever in 2014 to go with some changes to our look and even a foray into social media.

    Looking forward to seeing you more! Stay tuned for the imminent TDU preview and much more in 2014.

    -Dane Cash

  • 2012-2013 Rider Ranking Data

    Yesterday, I offered some perspective on riders I thought made strides this season (just scroll down a bit if you haven’t read my thoughts yet). Much of that analysis was driven by my own observations, but I did a fair bit of data work to add a level of comprehensiveness that I would not have otherwise achieved. I work a lot with data analysis at my day job, and I couldn’t help myself when I started thinking about tools I might use to analyze rider performance! I figured I might as well share that data with anyone who is interested.

    I took Cycling Quotient’s top 200 riders and gathered various ranking data on them, namely: rider name, birthdate, nationality, 2013 team, 2012 CQ rank and points, 2013 CQ rank and points, 2012 UCI rank and points, and 2013 UCI rank and points. I calculated the changes in rank and points for both systems, and also the absolute values of points changes for both systems, and ended up with a table that was sortable based on many different factors. For those of you who are also bored and starving for cycling info this offseason, I hope my work will offer some solace!

    Here is the file, for download at your convenience:

    2012-2013 CQ and WorldTour Ranking Data

    If you know your way around Excel, you can sort and filter this info to your heart’s content. Want to examine the top-ranked British riders under the age of 28? Open in Excel, go to the data tab and apply filters, filter date of birth and nationality as you like, sort on CQ rank (or WorldTour rank if that’s what you’re looking for) and voila! I found sorting on absolute value of points deltas to be quite enlightening in terms of visualizing which riders saw the most emphatic changes from 2012 to 2013. Here are the top 25 biggest swings in CQ points out of that list of 200 in a handy bar chart from Datawrapper:

    25 Biggest Swings in CQ Points out of Top 200

    You can visualize all kinds of info if you know what you’re doing. And no matter how you feel about the UCI WorldTour system, the WT points swings you’ll see in the file actually do a pretty darn good job of tracking rider performance at the highest level from one year to the next; one of Cycling Quotient’s most valuable features is that it assigns a meticulously plotted points value to every pro (and national/world championship) race on the calendar. Thusly, young up-and-comers who have a lot of success on lower circuits make their way onto the CQ radar well before they make their way onto the world stage. At the same time, this means that it can be a bit harder to use CQ ranking to visualize which riders made big statements with top-level victories, which is essentially the point of the WorldTour ranking system. However, don’t forget the Pro Continental riders do not score WT points, meaning that those who rode for Europcar in 2013 will be absent from the WT rankings, etc.

    Some interesting top-level tidbits: how amazing was Chris Froome’s 2013? Even after a very successful 2012, Froome raised the bar to an unprecedented degree with his 2013. Meanwhile, nobody came close to Froome’s compatriot Bradley Wiggins in terms of sheer dropoff in results. Joaquim Rodriguez is an interesting case: even with another Monument victory, 2nd place at the World Champs, a podium finish in the Tour, and a host of other successes leading to his second straight WT number 1, he saw a pretty steep points decline on both the CQ and WT scale. The data also remind us that despite a Tour filled with interview focused on his apparent demise, Mark Cavendish still had one heck of a season; don’t forget his 5 Giro victories on route to that race’s points classification victory. And for a final note, remember that this list includes those riders in Cycling Quotient’s top 200 for the year: that means that one of the biggest performance drop-offs of the season isn’t reflected anywhere, because Ryder Hesjedal is not one of CQ’s top 200 this year!

    I hope my data compiling allows you to crystalize your own opinions about rider performance trends. And don’t get too down if you’re an Edvald Boasson Hagen or Simon Gerrans fan: remember how big an impact injury can have on a rider’s performance in any given year. And with that, I’ll leave you to your analysis! Enjoy.

    -Dane Cash

    Rider data from cqranking.com and uciprotour.com, data visualization from datawrapper.de.

  • Post-year Impressions: Charting the Arrivals and Step-ups of 2013

    HesjedalCostaBetancur

    2013 is in the books! Beñat Intxausti won the GC of the final WT race of the year, the Tour of Beijing, by taking a victory on the decisive fourth stage. Joaquim Rodriguez finishes the year as repeat WorldTour champion on the back of his GrandTour successes, a Monument victory, and a truckload of high placings in other big races.

    As this site is in the business of prospective analysis, my look back at 2013 will mostly be a look forward. I hope to shed some light on what we learned about the top riders in the sport this year, and which riders to watch in the future. If you’re reading VeloHuman, you don’t need me to tell you that Chris Froome is a rider to keep an eye on next year, or that Vincenzo Nibali is shaping up to be his main rival, or that Fabian Cancellara is still a talented racer. Instead, it’d be more productive for me to focus on the riders who made vast improvements in 2013, who we might say “arrived” this year, and who have set themselves up to do big things next year, so I’ll do just that, and name some names that I think made big strides this season and look to continue to do soon in the near future.

    A rather obvious duo headlines my list of the most emphatic arrivals this year. While everyone was busy wondering which Spaniard would present the best case against Chris Froome in the Tour de France, a 23-year old Colombian leg-muscled his way onto the scene, building off of early season success in the Tour of the Basque Country with a fierce display of climbing prowess on some of the Tour’s most difficult stages: Ventoux, Alpe d’Huez, Mont Semnoz. Though the early lead Froome had built up was insurmountable, Quintana’s later stage performances, matching the Sky captain’s every move uphill on his way to 2nd overall, a stage win, the polka-dot KoM jersey and the young rider’s white, he saved Movistar’s Tour after their team leader Alejandro Valverde hit some raw luck with a mechanical that dropped him out of contention. No one will overlook him next year, especially with such a climbing-oriented 2014 edition of the Tour de France on the docket. Alternatively, he could set his sights on the Giro. Quintana’s time trialing might need a bit of work, but he showed this year that he can outclimb most of the sport’s biggest names, and you have to think he can only get better, still a few years shy of his prime.

    Countryman Carlos Betancur blazed onto the scene with similar brightness. Top 10s at La Fleche Wallonne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the Tour of the Basque Country were followed by a highly successful Giro d’Italia, in which the young Colombian took 5th overall and the young rider classification. Like Quintana, he is sorely lacking in the time trialing department—his remarkable Giro was made all the more remarkable by his appearance in the top 10 after losing almost five minutes to the eventual winner of the race in the first ITT. Like Quintana, he’ll gun for future Grand Tour success in chrono-light parcours while he improves in that discipline, and while he may be a shade shy of Quintana’s level on the longer Tour style climbs, he’s more explosive than the Movistar wunderkind, and will surely be a fixture in the climber’s classics to come.

    Zdenek Stybar is my other most emphatic arrival of the year. His situation is unique, in that cycling fans have heard Stybar’s name for years, but in a different discipline. Making the switch from cyclocross appears to have worked out for the Czech rider: even after a collision with a fan robbed him of a potential podium position in Paris-Roubaix, he still finished 6th in that race, and followed it up with a dominant Eneco Tour and a beautiful stage win in the Vuelta where he outsprinted none other than former World Champ Philippe Gilbert. His versatility was dazzling, and he will go into the 2014 classics season as a hot favorite across all kinds of terrain—and isn’t that the perfect expectation for a former cyclocross world champion?

    Many other riders who were already well within the sights of cycling fans took leaps onto the highest level. Outside of Quintana, the most emphatic arrivals among riders who finished the year in the WorldTour top 10 were made by Dan Martin and Rui Costa. Dan Martin was already a name on the minds of observers at the start of the season, with a Grand Tour stage win in 2011 and the overall victory at the Tour de Pologne in 2010, but he took a Monument Classic, a Tour de France stage win, and the overall at the Volta a Catalunya this year, successes that vaulted him to 6th place in the final WorldTour rankings of 2013 (putting him ahead of Spartacus himself). And Rui Costa came into the year as a well-known talent as a winner of a Canadian GP, the Tour de Suisse, and a stage in the Tour de France, but his two Tour de France wins and World Championship (to go with another dominant Tour de Suisse) put him at cycling’s center stage. He goes to Lampre in 2014 as the team leader, a Tour de France GC hopeful. Another star of the Tour, Bauke Mollema was already a well-known name for many fans of the sport, having finished 4th overall and 1st in the points classification in the 2011 Vuelta, but he came into his own this year with strong performances all over the calendar, in the Ardennes Classics, the Tour de Suisse, Tour de France, Vuelta (where he won a stage to redeem a disappointing GC effort), and Clasica de San Sebastian. His emergence comes at just the right time, with teammate Robert Gesink having another disappointing year in terms of Grand Tour GC contention; however, Gesink showed strong late season form in shorter races, winning the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec and placing highly in other events, suggesting a possible change of focus to shorter races going forward. And the timing was ripe for Marcel Kittel to make an explosive entrance: after injury in 2012 robbed him of an opportunity to make his mark on that year’s tour, his 2013 outing, which earned him a quartet of stage wins, suddenly sees him in the best-of-the-best conversation with Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel.

    In case you missed it, his teammate Luka Mezgec was one of a number of young up-and-coming sprinters who showed promise this year. Mezgec spent the whole year nipping at the heels of other sprinters, racking up countless top 5s without a win until he finally picked up his first of the year and his first WT level win ever on the very last day of the WorldTour calendar in Beijing. Nacer Bouhanni took a pair of wins in that race to go with the points jersey, as well as a number of other wins this year, a boon for FDJ. His squadmate Arnaud Demare took stages in the Eneco Tour and the Tour de Suisse, an armful of honors in the Four Days of Dunkirk he won, and high placings in a number of one-day races. Yet another French, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, a former track cycling star, transitioned quite nicely onto the road, collecting honors left and right on the Continental circuit. The 21 year old will be a major force on the fast finishes in 2014 now that Europcar looks to be joining the top division of teams. Michael Matthews came into the Vuelta flying high after Continental Tour success and proceeded to establish himself as the best sprinter in that race, with a special talent for nabbing victories after tough days in the saddle. His skills nabbed him a pair of stage wins, including the victory on the final day’s sprinter battle royale.

    Speaking of quick hardmen, Alexander Kristoff gets a paragraph of his own: he built on a strong 2012 (in which he took an Olympic Bronze Medal) with top 10s in three Monument Classics and his first WorldTour level win in the Tour de Suisse (besting Peter Sagan on a tough day that ended in a sprint). He has established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.

    The Vuelta gave us an opportunity to see a number of coming out parties for GC contenders. Leopold Konig landed in the top 10 and picked up a stage win at the head of a Pro Continental team, quite a feat for the 25 year old. He’ll stay with NetApp for another year and will hope his performance garners further invitations to big events, where he’s sure to continue his success. Meanwhile, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche achieved some long awaited success with a top 5 finish and a stage win. His constant presence at the front of the pack on mountaintop finishes in Spain suggests that he may finally have taken the step up to the next level, a good sign for 2014.

    Ulissi

    Poland showed off a pair of riders with top level ability this year. Nico Roche’s teammate Rafal Majka didn’t win any races, but he was 7th overall in the Giro d’Italia and 2nd to Betancur for the young rider classification in that race, and he followed up with a 4th overall in his home tour to go along with his 1st place in the points classification of that race. The honors kept piling up as the year went on, when he narrowly missed out on a victory in Milano-Torino against another rising star (pictured above) and then stood on the podium in the final Monument of the year in Lombardy. By the same token (eerily), Michal Kwiatkowski may still have yet to win a pro race, but he burst onto the scene this year with a boatload of strong performances. 4th in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Amstel Gold, 5th in La Fleche Wallonne, and a heartbreaking 11th in the Tour de France after fellow up-and-comer Andrew Talansky grabbed the final top 10 spot on the last day of climbing, Majka looks to be a likely candidate for continued climbing success, and Kwiatkowski showed an incredible array of skills and looks poised to stake a claim to best all-rounder in the very near future.

    A significant number of teams saw young climbing talents rising up the ladder this year. Many are Italian. 2011 Giro stage winner Diego Ulissi took a big step forward with successes on both ends of the season, nabbing a top 10 at Paris-Nice early and then a stage win in the Tour de Pologne and a string of semi-classic victories in Italy. So far, most of his quantifiable successes have been on smaller stages, but he performed at a high level in some big races this year (he was lurking in a number of stages in the Vuelta even if he didn’t come away with a win), inspiring a lot of confidence going forward. He’ll be part of an explosive one-two combination with Rui Costa at Lampre in 2014. Astana teammates Fabio Aru and Simone Ponzi look like prime candidates for success next year. Another Italian, Moreno Moser, had several standout performances this year for Cannondale; he disappeared at times when he was expected to bring his success to a bigger stage, but he showed in Strade Bianche and other races in 2013 that he certainly has the ability to turn promise into achievement in 2014.

    Spaniard Jon Izagirre won’t be sweating the dissolution of his former team Euskaltel too much now that he has a new squad in Movistar, and it’s easy to see why they signed him. He nabbed the runner-up honors in the Tour de Pologne with a surprising time trial performance on the last day, and notched top 10s in the Tour Down Under and the one day Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal as well.

    Vichot

    24 year old Arthur Vichot looks to be one of yet another up-and-comer for FDJ with strong climbing legs and a fast finish, abilities that netted him the French national championship, the runner-up honors in Quebec, and the victory in the Tour du Haut Var-matin. AG2R’s Romain Bardet, winner of the Tour de l’Ain and a high finisher in the Tour of Beijing, appears to have a bright future, and he joins teammate Carlos Betancur as part of a crop of young uphill chargers on that team.

    Wilco Kelderman, a natural time trial talent, came into his own as a climber with a number of high-level successes in 2013. He picked up top 10s in Romandie, the Eneco Tour, and the Tour Down Under, and dominated the Tour of Denmark, where he won a stage, the points classification, and the overall. He’s another exciting up-and-comer for Belkin.

    Argos-Shimano teammates Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin got themselves onto the map this year, the former nabbing a pair of breakaway victories in the Vuelta, and the latter claiming runner up honors with an impressive Eneco Tour performance. Alongside Marcel Kittel, Luka Mezgec, and John Degenkolb, the duo makes a potent quartet of Argos riders 25 and under.

    Riccardo Zoidl nabbed the GC win at the Tour of Austria, and climbed at a high level in a number of other events. Darwin Atapuma moves up from Team Colombia to BMC after nabbing his first WorldTour win this year in Poland—that team desperately needs new blood, and Atapuma will be happy to oblige.

    To match all these young climbers coming into their own, a few time trialists are on the rise: Adriano Malori looks to be a threat in that department, putting in a top 10 at the World Championship ITT and taking second place behind Tony Martin on a few time trial stages in WorldTour races to go along with his ITT victory and the overall in Bayern-Rundfahrt. Rohan Dennis out-time-trialed Chris Froome in the Criterium du Dauphine on his way to a top 10 there and then showed his versatility when he won a stage and the overall in the Tour of Alberta. The 23 year old has established himself as a promising member of Garmin’s youth movement.

    This list is by no means exhaustive, and obviously much depends on how you define breakout success, but hopefully I’ve rattled off the names of many of tomorrow’s biggest names. And thanks to the Tour Down Under and its January start date, we won’t have too long to wait for the opening of the 2014 calendar–in just 11 weeks, the pro peloton heads to Nuriootpa, Australia to kick off the new season!

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Flowizm, brassynn, and Georges Ménager.

  • Tour of Beijing 2013 Preview

    Miaofeng

    The Road Ahead

    The last WorldTour race of the year! Despite all the controversy around this race, and all the derision that is heaped on it by observers due to the poor organization and abysmal air quality that riders must suffer through in the name of cycling’s globalization (and in the service of a fat paycheck for the UCI), it’s still a major event with major contenders seeking last minute WT points. For all the hate it gets, it’s still a race that sees some of the sport’s biggest names fighting for victory, and the 2013 edition is no different. Current and former World Champions of Road Race and Time Trial, a Monument winner, and the Vuelta’s best sprinter are all making the journey to China.

    The 2013 Tour of Beijing will consist of five stages, none of them time trials. The first is a flat day sure to end in a sprint. The second throws in a few hills, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it’s another likely day for the sprinters. Stage 3 involves a hefty dose of climbing miles sure to put some fatigue in the legs before a summit finish on Stage 4 atop Miaofeng Mountain (site of the lovely sunset scene depicted above) sure to decide the Tour of Beijing. The final stage is a flat circuit race, another day for the sprinters.

    All-rounder Roundup

    Tony Martin is the two time winner of the Tour of Beijing, and as usual he heads a strong cast of supporters, but this year’s trip to China is different from the previous two: not only is there no time trial, but there is also a steep summit finish, which has not been the case in Tours of Beijing past. Stage 4 almost guarantees the winner will be a climber; the only way Tony Martin wins this race is with a long distance breakaway. Obviously he’s the rider to make this happen if it does, but that kind of gap when he has such a target on his back will be a tall order.

    There are plenty of star climbers to take up the challenge. The best combination of form and talent at this point seems to be Garmin-Sharp’s Dan Martin, 4th in this race and King of the Mountains last year. In 2013, that mountain prowess means so much more. Martin was one of the top five riders in Lombardy last week, and a time trial-less one-week stage race with only one or at most two days to make an all out attack is just his style. Back in March, he won the Volta a Catalunya with a powerful uphill move on the most mountainous stage of the race, he’ll look to do the same here.

    World Champion Rui Costa leads a strong Movistar squad. He’s an elite climber and, like Dan Martin, has elite explosiveness well-suited for stage races decided on one or two key days. Obviously, the world champion is on form right now, as he always seems to be at the end of the year. The two-time Tour de Suisse winner was 9th here last year. Capable climbers Benat Intxausti and Giovanni Visconti provide ample alternatives for the Spanish team.

    A third rider matching form to ability is Belkin’s Robert Gesink, who has some good results these past few weeks, winning in Quebec and coming in 10th in Lombardy. Not long ago he was touted as a Grand Tour contender, with climbing talent that landed him in the top 5 of a Tour de France. Like Martin, he’s shown a great kick in one-day races this year, and also like Martin, he’ll appreciate the lack of a time trial stage. Wilco Kelderman is a great backup option.

    Richie Porte heads Team Sky’s challenge. The Paris-Nice winner showed climbing ability in the Tour de France on par with the best riders in the world. The only question now is form: he hasn’t made many waves since rolling into Paris with Chris Froome. Young American Joe Dombrowski and Spaniard David Lopez are other very strong climbers on the squad.

    Another big name from earlier this season whose form is a question is Giro Young Rider Classification winner Carlos Betancur. The climbing specialist was purely a domestique for Domenico Pozzovivo in the Vuelta, but he looked to be improving in the ensuing one-day races in Italy. Obviously, if Betancur recovers that form, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, AG2R La Mondiale sends a lot of firepower: Tour de l’Ain winner Romain Bardet, Tour de France stage winner and Tour de Pologne stage winner/GC podium finisher Christophe Riblon, and Jean-Christophe Peraud mean business. AG2R could be one of the most active teams on stages 3 and 4; they’re sure to launch repeated volleys in the classics-style climbs in the former and the long uphill grind of the latter, hoping one sticks.

    Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has looked strong since his return, but he doesn’t have much in terms of results to show for his decent form; he abandoned the Vuelta and came in just outside the top 10 at Il Lombardia. He’ll hope to outlast his rivals on the long climb to the summit on Stage 4. Fellow aging star Michael Rogers will rue the lack of a time trial, but he’s been quite good this year in one week races in which he’s actually had a chance to ride for his own ambitions, finishing 6th in the Dauphine and 2nd in the Tour of California.

    Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, Astana’s Janez Brajkovic, BMC’s Mathias Frank, and Vacansoleil’s Thomas De Gendt are other names to keep in mind. Zdenek Stybar is another option for Omega Pharma – Quick Step; he could go for a long strike on the hilly stage 3 in an attempt to mitigate his losses in the probably-too-mountainous-for-him stage 4.

    This late in the year, with form fading after a long season and several riders hunting WT points at the close of 2013, the fight for the Tour of Beijing GC could see any number of enterprising contenders as the last man standing.

    Stagehunters

    Sagan, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel might be sitting this one out, but there is a lot of young talent in China to take advantage of the three likely sprinter’s days. Michael Matthews, double stage winner in the Vuelta, headlines the list. OGE made it public that Matthews was their man for the harder sprint days in that race, with Leigh Howard as the man for the pan flat days, but when Matthews took a strong win early, his team gave him their full support on every bunch gallop opportunity, and he rewarded their faith with a victory in the final stage in Madrid. He’ll face fierce competition from FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni, who won a Paris-Nice stage in March and found himself in the mix in a number of Giro stages, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani (winner of two stages in past Tour of Beijing), and of course, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, who started the year off slowly, but has picked things up in the post-Tour months. Luka Mezgec of Argos-Shimano was constantly nipping at the heels of Peter Sagan in their trip to North America recently, and he’ll have the support of a well marshalled lead out; Tom Veelers is a good alternate option. Alessandro Petacchi will be the man in the sprints for OPQS. Even at 39 he’s still looked imposing, runner-up in a Tour of Britain stage and always near the front in the Eneco Tour’s flat days. Constant high finisher but rare winner Robert Ferrari leads Lampre’s charge, and without the likes of Cavendish, perhaps he can nib a win here. I have already named Steele von Hoff an under the radar challenger this year so I suppose that precludes him from being considered under the radar again here, but if he wasn’t on your radar yet, he should be. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus was a hot sleeper pick for the sprints in the Vuelta and he achieved nothing there; maybe he’ll get back on track here before he dons the Belkin green next year. Vacansoleil also has Kenny Van Hummel. On sprinting duty for a very strong AG2R team is Yauheni Hutarovich.Katusha has a trio of young sprinters in Alexey Tsatevich, Marco Haller (who won a stage here last year) and, going way under the rader, Anton Vorobyev.

    Regardless of whether he has a shot at GC, Zdenek Stybar is a great pick to nab a stage win on one of the five days. The Czech hardman, unfazed by the mud of the cyclocross circuit, the dust and cobbles of Paris-Roubaix, or the lumps of the Ardennes, is as good a bet as any to handle the Beijing smog and come out on top at a stage finish line with his versatile skillset. Stage 3 looks like a great place to strike, but he’s shown in a matter of weeks that he’s capable of winning on all kinds of profiles. His teammate Nikolas Maes is another sneaky stagehunter. The Astana trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel, Cannondale’s Daniele Ratto and Damiano Caruso, Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, and AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini are all versatile fast finishers. Gavazzi and Nocentini were 2nd and 6th, respectively, in last year’s GC. I think that’s unrealistic to repeat with this year’s parcours, but stage victories could be on their minds. The Tour of Beijing will be the farewell race of longtime star of combativity, Juan Antonio Flecha, and you can guarantee he’ll be going 100% in every breakaway possible in his last pro event. Stephen Cummings, 4th here in the past, is another strong breakaway candidate. And of course, Tony Martin will certainly be trying to get away on his own, even if he doesn’t think he has a shot at GC.

    With so many stages sure to end in a bunch finish with the climbers taking it easy in the back of the peloton, it will be the stagehunters at the fore for the majority of the Tour of Beijing.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    Winner

    Daniel Martin

    Podium

    Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

    Top 10

    Carlos Betancur, Michael Rogers, Richie Porte, Ivan Basso, Mathias Frank, Christophe Riblon, Thomas De Gendt

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Tim Wang.