Author: VeloHuman

Vuelta a España 2013 Day 11: Where We Stand After Ten Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 11-13

Day 11: Turning Back the Clock

The past few days have proven decisive for a number of outside GC contenders in the Vuelta. Not long after my last update, Dan Martin withdrew with a concussion. In Stage 8, Bauke Mollema lost enough time to put himself out of the conversation, and Roman Kreuziger apparently started to have a heart problem that would, over the coming stages, drop him out of the conversation as well.

“Up-and-comer” Leopold Konig did, in fact, take Stage 8 with a well-timed, well-executed attack. The other top names were close behind. Moreno continued to look strong on a parcours that appeared to be designed perfectly for him and his teammate Joaquim Rodriguez on stage 9. And Stage 10? Perhaps it’s time to finally start believing that Chris Horner is the real deal. I used the vague terms “serious GC showdown” and “riders on elite form” to describe how Stage 10 would play out, but I’ll admit I wasn’t really thinking of the Radioshack veteran: all along I’ve been expecting him to fade, but he hasn’t yet, and he managed to drop everyone on the slopes of Alto Hazallanas on his way to the top. Vincenzo Nibali, however, was not all that far behind and a fair bit ahead of the other contenders, and unfortunately for Horner, a time trial looms. The American took the red jersey back from Dani Moreno, but I fear he won’t wear it long.

Stage 11: Tarazona | 38.8km | Individual Time Trial

It’s an individual time trial with a Cat. 3 climb right at the heart of it, but it’s not so steep as to make me believe that anyone other than Tony Martin is going to win it. He’s the man to beat in all but the most difficult climber-oriented time trials, and betting against him on flatter days and even pseudo-hilly chronos has proven a dangerous decision so far this year. If he can win an ITT in which Nairo Quintana finished ahead of Richie Porte (Stage 6 at the Tour of the Basque Country), he can probably win this. Competition from fellow time trialing superstar Fabian Cancellara will be fierce, and the hill in the middle will help the classics specialist and strong descender, but Spartacus has been doing some hard racing in support of his team leader lately, and will continue to do so. Moreoever, he seems to be focusing more on his mass-start skills than his soloing right now. Like Tony Martin, there are plenty of other time trialing specialists in attendance who have come to the Vuelta with this one stage in mind (though it’s hard to see anyone beating Martin, the odds-on favorite), including Lieuwe Westra, who loves a time trial with a climb or two, Marco Pinotti, Stef Clement, and Luis Leon Sanchez. Edvald Boasson Hagen is more than just a TT specialist, but he’s capable of a high placing. I don’t include Tanel Kangert with those other names because I see him as a pseudo-GC name at the moment (he’s 14th overall) and after being a faithful domestique for Nibali all through the Giro, perhaps Astana will give him the green light to do his best in the Vuelta: he seems to have sacrificed some of his time trialing ability for climbing skills this year, but with this profile, things should balance out. If Astana gives him the go-ahead to ride hard for himself, I see him finishing between 2nd and 5th. Of the marquee names for GC, Nibali stands out head and shoulders above the rest. He’s the only rider in the top 10 with an actual chance to win this time trial, as he has become an elite time trialist at this point in his career, which he showed with commanding performances in the Giro. Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez (vastly improved in this discipline) will hope to limit their losses to within a minute of Astana’s leader; the Cat. 3 climb should help with that. Roche and Moreno aren’t great against the clock, but they aren’t terrible, and hanging around relatively close to their current positions is a reasonable expectation, though Roche will likely lose his spot on the virtual podium. I expect Pinot, Majka, Pozzovivo, and, yes, Chris Horner to struggle. None of them has the resume to produce anything other than expectations of large time losses here, though, of course, Chris Horner has been blowing up expectations daily. Samuel Sanchez will be excited about the opportunity to gain a chunk of time on his chase for whatever position he is targeting now that he’s no longer a contender for the red jersey; he has (or at least, had) a strong time trial when he is on form.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Tanel Kangert

Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 164.2km | Flat

After putting up with a few grueling days of climbing and time trialing, the sprinters finally get another day in the (hot Spanish) sun. There is a Category 3 climb to be summitted with more than 70 kilometers to go, but other than that, there isn’t much to keep the fast men from the line. It’s a day for the true sprinters, who must feel cheated after Stybar and Gilbert got the jump on them on the pan-flat Stage 7. Look to some familiar names to stake their claim today, though the dearth of marquee sprint team leaders means that a big bunch of teams have multiple options, and it’s been hard to nail down whom they are favoring in advance. If Orica-GreenEdge is still committed to giving him opportunities, this would be a great day for Leigh Howard, but it’s unclear whether they are just going 100% for Matthews now. It appears that Argos-Shimano favors Janse van Rensburg on the flatter days. Maybe. Nikias Arndt and Ramon Sinkeldam are there, too. Belkin has both Graeme Brown and Robert Wagner, who won the bunch sprint for 3rd on Stage 7. FDJ has Anthony Roux and Geoffrey Soupe. Vacansoleil has been one of the hardest to predict: depsite the presence of ostensibly highly talented sprinter Barry Markus, it has been the immensely mediocre Juan Antonio Flecha who has featured so frequently in the bunch sprints. No longer will Markus be a concern, as he did not finish Stage 10, but the team has sometimes thrown Grega Bole into the mix as well. Andrew Fenn got DQed, ending the sprinting leadership debate at OPQS, at least, though this stage might not be selective enough for Gianni Meersman.

Sky, Garmin, Lampre, Saxo-Tinkoff, and Cofidis seem to have settled on their sprinters in, respectively: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tyler Farrar, Maximiliano Richeze, Michael Morkov, and Adrien Petit. I also think that these are some of the strongest sprinting names in the race right now. Richeze has been 2nd twice, and Lampre wants something to show for this Grand Tour. Former track star Michael Morkov will appreciate the uber flat run into the finish on Stage 12. Petit has been improving. Farrar is still searching for that big win, but he hasn’t been too far off the mark.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Maximiliano Richeze | 2. Adrien Petit | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Morkov

Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 169km | Medium Mountains

An early Cat. 3 and then a sudden, sheer Cat. 1 will challenge those riders who are likely to have done well on the previous stage. The four and a half kilometer climb at 10.6% could cause serious splits, benefitting the breakaway as the heavier riders try to catch back up to those who get over the hump first, but the top of the Cat. 1 is still some 40 kilometers from the finishing town of Castelldefels, and the road is pretty much downhill or flat all the way home, leaving plenty of time for those who have fallen off to play catchup. As the sprinters’ opportunities are very limited now, they’ll work hard to ensure that this thing ends in a sprint. It likely will, though the group that comes to the line might be reduced and fatigued. Sounds like a perfect opportunity for Michael Matthews to pick up a second stage win, or for Meersman or Boasson Hagen to pick up their first this Vuelta. With higher mountains looming, competition will be fierce, and the likes of Richeze, Petit, Farrar, and other bigger fast men will love the finish if they can just get there in one piece.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Gianni Meersman

-Dane Cash

Photo by Tom Ducat-White.

September 4, 2013
GP Ouest France 2013 Preview

An Open Field

A circuit race comprising nine laps around a 27km loop, GP Ouest France provides just enough tough climbs to keep you guessing until the very end: recent races have come down to late attacks battling a hard-charging peloton full of sprinters to the line. The 2013 startlist reflects this trend, with a number of powerful sprinters and aggressive attackers making the trip to Brittany. Last year saw Edvald Boasson Hagen launch a last minute assault over the final climb of Ty Marrec to catch and pass soloist Rui Costa, while the bunch finished just behind them. 2011 offered a similar result, with Grega Bole striking out with 2 kilometers remaining and just managing to beat a Simon Gerrans-led pack to the finish. With the same route as the 2012 edition, this year’s GP Ouest France is likely to offer a similar script (though neither Gerrans or Bole are here to see it through): each lap around the town of Plouay will drop more competitors, as attackers try to get ahead and stay ahead and the chasers give dogged pursuit. Perhaps a late break will stay clear, or perhaps the peloton will reel all attackers in and give the day to a sprinter, as happened in 2010, when Matt Goss took the victory. The two biggest questions will be: will the pack catch everyone who breaks for glory, and if so, who will be the fastest man left?

There will be no shortage of elite tough sprinter types making the trip, and many of the names that featured heavily in the Vattenfall Cyclassics will do so again here. A few stand out to me. Chief among them is Alexander Kristoff, who took third in the Cyclassics behind John Degenkolb and Andre Greipel. He’s had a phenomenal year with top 10s in so many big, grueling one-day races, including all three Monument Classics he’s taken on so far. In his favor, GP Ouest France is a much harder race than Vattenfall (Andre Greipel isn’t racing, as the parcours is too challenging for a rider like him), and Kristoff is a high endurance sprinter who relishes the sorts of difficulties that could wear down even the others in that class of rider. John Degenkolb has a reputation for a similar skill set, and he is sure to be a threat here, but the inclines here will certainly push him to the limit. It’s been hard to predict Degenkolb’s performance this year, as he has peppered two beautiful wins in with a bunch of duds, and he has a tendency to disappear when you expect him to make a statement. Still, he obviously has the talent and the form, and with so many contenders, a good leadout will be all-important, and Argos-Shimano knows how to lead out its stars. Giacomo Nizzolo has been in the top 10 here in back-to-back years, and he’ll be extra motivated after a very frustrating Vattenfall Cyclassics, in which Lotto’s Marcel Sieberg swerved in front of him in the final moments, causing him to brake and miss out on the last push for the line. He’s looking extremely fast right now. Elia Viviani and Arnaud Demare are also great candidates for a bunch sprint victory. Viviani managed a nice 5th place in that race and has had good results this year, and showing a lot of versatility in the Giro. Demare couldn’t find an opening in Hamburg and came across a disappointing 10th, but he’s shown elite speed very recently and is a decent enough climber that he should be able to hang on. Thor Hushovd leads a very strong BMC team and will look to pick up more results to continue something of a resurgence. Lotto-Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts loves this sort of terrain. AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Movistar’s JJ Rojas and Francisco Ventoso, Steele von Hoff of Garmin-Sharp, Hushovd’s teammate Adam Blythe, and Saxo-Tinkoff’s Matti Breschel and Daniele Bennati are other names to watch in a sprint. 2010 winner Matt Goss gets an obligatory mention, and if he manages to stay with the pack he would be, if at his best, one of the fastest men here, but that’s a lot of ifs.

I see Daryl Impey as a potentially better option for Orica-GreenEdge: he’s one of a number of in-betweener type riders who will hope the inevitable cat and mouse game over the hilly profile drops the Degenkolbs and Vivianis, leaving the survivors to fight it out in a very reduced sprint or with late attacks of their own. Impey’s form in the Eneco Tour was impressive: he was at his best on the very trying final two stages of that race, and should be able to hang on if his teammate fails. Greg Van Avermaet also has a fast finish and is coming off of a successful trip to the USA, where he showed off some capable climbing legs; if things don’t work out for Hushovd, Van Avermaet has a chance, as does Taylor Phinney, who has a great combination of straight line speed and endurance, though he doesn’t have much of a climber’s physique. Tony Gallopin’s all-rounder package makes him a candidate to win in either a bunch gallop or an aggressive strike over the Ty Marrec. Michal Kwiatkowksi has not done much since the Tour, but he is an even more complete rider than Gallopin, and should he be on form, he’ll be dangerous. Astana sends a trio of all-round threats in Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simone Ponzi, who had a very successful Vuelta a Burgos, and can finish hard after a long day in the saddle: keep an eye on him. Cannondale’s inconsistent but talented Moreno Moser, Belkin’s Lars Boom, Sky’s Geraint Thomas, and Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato also fit the bill of versatile fast-finishers.

Edvald Boasson Hagen won last year by bridging the gap between the bunch and a soloing Rui Costa. Costa returns to the start list, and he is one of the best among a third bevy of riders, those who will need to launch up the inclines ahead of the peloton to give themselves a chance at victory. Alberto Contador is also in attendance, and he’s unlikely to pass up a shot at victory if he sees it. Sylvain Chavanel leads a strong Omega Pharma-Quick Step squad in his home country, and with time trialing talents this big, a long distance strike from one of them seems likely. Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge will see this as a perfect opportunity for his style of riding. With so many combative riders on the start list, it would be impossible to name everyone with a shot at breaking away, but I’ll give a few names I think could jump ahead: Ramunas Navardauskas, Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Simon Spilak, almost anyone from Euskaltel, Rein Taaramae, Wilco Kelderman, and any number of strong Frenchmen, including Julien Simon, Pierrick Fedrigo and the Europcar duo of Rolland and Voeckler. Voeckler looked pretty uninspiring in the Tour de France, but he just won a smaller French stage race (the Tour du Poitou Charentes) and he won here all the way back in 2007. Regardless of the result this year, he’s sure to at least earn some screen time with his signature grimace-heavy attacks.

While many of the same fast men from the Vattenfall Cyclassics are in attendance, the outcome of the GP Ouest France will be far harder to predict, given the aggressive nature of the riding and the varied outcomes of the recent past. All things considered, I’d probably take Kristoff, Nizzolo, and Demare to hang on and lead the pack over the line, but whether they’ll be fighting for second or third behind someone like Greg Van Avermaet or Sylvain Chavanel is tough to say. As usual, I will name the guys I think are most likely to contend for Top 10 placings, but naming Degenkolb, for instance, as an outside top 10 contender doesn’t mean I think he’s going to come in 8th behind a bunch of other sprinters on my list: he’s likely to either be right near the top of the leaderboard, or nowhere to be seen; the same goes for the solo attacker types, as it is just too hard to predict who will get into the right break, and whether they will hang on or get swallowed up and finish well outside the top 50. No matter what happens, it will certainly be an awesome show.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Alexander Kristoff

Podium

Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Demare

Top 10

Thor Hushovd, John Degenkolb, Greg Van Avermaet, Sylvain Chavanel, Daryl Impey, Elia Viviani, Michal Kwiatkowski

Under the Radar Challenger

Simone Ponzi

-Dane Cash

Photo by kaveman743.

September 1, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 7: Where We Stand After Seven Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 8-10

Day 7: Fast Men Have Their Chances, Mountains Await

Stages 4-7, while not particularly mountainous, still managed to offer plenty of excitement, with no repeat winners and no shortage of drama, even if General Classification did not see much of a real shakeup; however, at the time of this writing, Dan Martin has reportedly been taken to the hospital for injuries suffered in a crash today, a crash that dropped him a little bit after he did not make it back to the peloton quite in time. Keep an eye on that.

A “punchy, Ardennes-style GC type” (see the previous post) did, in fact, nab stage 4: 2013 La Fleche Wallone winner Daniel Moreno attacked on the uphill finish and crossed the line ahead of an aggressive Fabian Cancellara and a pack of sprinters. The red jersey went back to Nibali after a tiny gap formed on the hill, but there was little to speak of in the way of substantial time differences for any of the big contenders, a theme that continued through today’s stage. Stage 5 went, as predicted, to Michael Matthews, who has officially arrived as a name to know. Specializing in sprints after hard days of riding, particualrly with slight uphill finishes, Matthews capitalized on Stage 5’s perfect profile to power ahead of Maximiliano Richeze and Gianni Meersman, leaving Tyler Farrar and Edvald Boasson Hagen a disappointed 5th and 6th. Stage 6, which looked set to be innocuous, saw Tony Martin attack early and ride solo ahead of the peloton basically all day, exceeding everyone’s expectations and generating real belief that he might manage, somehow, to stay ahead of the chasers for the victory, before getting caught just seconds from the finish line by a hard charging bunch of sprinters led by Danish track star turned road cyclist Michael Morkov. Richeze was again 2nd, with Cancellara 3rd and Farrar 4th. The even flatter Stage 7 had enough twists and turns toward the finish to allow a very late jump by world champion Philippe Gilbert and recent Eneco Tour champion Zdenek Stybar. They somehow held their advantage to the end, and Stybar pipped Gilbert to the line in a photo finish, with the bunch just behind, led by Belkin’s Robert Wagner. Four different days, four different winners, none of them Gianni Meersman, Edvald Boasson Hagen, or Tyler Farrar. Now that the sprinters have had their shot to make a mark on this Vuelta, the road goes up.

Stage 8: Jerez de la Frontera > Alto de Peñas Blancas | 166.6km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The peloton takes on a single categorized climb in Stage 8, but it’s a Cat. 1, 960 meter incline to the finish at Alto de Peñas Blancas. The climb is 14.5 kilometers long at an average gradient of 6.6%. The steepest portions are early (a brief section at 12.5% around 2km in), meaning that this climb will favor those all-rounders with full tanks, capable of sustained upward efforts. If a group finishes together, a strong finishing kick would seal the deal. Stage 2 might have led to frustrating time losses for a few of the big GC names, but Stage 8 is sure to cause serious selection in the fight for GC. Giro riders have now had a week to ride themselves into form, and Nibali has shown no signs of weakness, making him one of my obvious favorite for this stage, assuming a breakaway isn’t given the chance to nab a win (and given the number of riders currently still in contention for GC whose stated Giro aims are stage-win-oriented, it seems like the chase would be fierce). Ivan Basso has looked very capable so far, and he will appreciate the long road to the top. As the climb is only a little steeper and longer than that on Stage 2, many of those same names could factor here, including that stage’s winner Nicolas Roche, Domenico Pozzovivo, the ever-present Joaquim Rodriguez (though the road isn’t steep enough late enough to provide a great opportunity for his style of attack), his teammate Dani Moreno, and up-and-comers Leopold Konig and Diego Ulissi. As the ascent does even out a bit towards the top, a group could reach that point together, favoring riders with a strong finish: most obviously Alejandro Valverde, but don’t forget the rider who won the Points jersey in the 2011 Vuelta, Bauke Mollema, who has looked great so far.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Vincenzo Nibali | 4. Ivan Basso

Stage 9: Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén | 163.7km | Medium Mountains

Stage 9 again throws only a single categorized climb at the competitors, a Cat. 2 whose summit is 16km from the finish line, but the peloton will climb over rolling hills and then a steady upward incline to reach that summit. Then, they will zip downward toward the town of Valdepeñas de Jaen, until reaching a short but maddeningly steep ramp up to the finish line. Stage 9 is certain to provide excitement: riders might attack on the Cat. 2, or they might wait until the closing kilometer to launch up the zany climb. Katusha’s duo of Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Moreno (winner of this year’s La Fleche Wallone) will likely feature on the Mur de Huy-esque slope. Alejandro Valverde has come close to victory more than once on the early uphill finishes and will be out for the stage win and bonus seconds. After a rough start due to his knee injury, Philippe Gilbert has been looking stronger and stronger, and this finish suits him; the day’s climbs are likely to weed out the sprinting types from being much of a factor at the finish, but a tougher rider like Gilbert has a great opportunity to survive to the final gallop. It may be a bit steep for Simon Gerrans, who is riding himself into form, but he’s shown some real punch in earlier races this year. Roman Kreuziger, Daniel Martin (if he is alright healthwise, which is unclear at this point), Bauke Mollema, Sky teammates Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao, and Carlos Betancur (if he ever manages to find his legs again) have the explosiveness to take a victory here, too.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Sergio Henao

Stage 10: Torredelcampo > Alto Hazallanas | 186.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

It’s a good thing that the riders get a rest day in between Stage 10 and Stage 11, because Monday’s ride from Torredelcampo to Alto Hazallanas will be very hard on everyone. The day begins with a few small foothills. A little less than 30km away from the end of the line is the Alto de Monachil, a Cat. 1 mountain with 8.5 km of ascent at 7.7%. The riders will then take a steep descent before the road goes up again toward the finish line at the end of Special Category climb, Alto de Hazallanas, which is nearly 16 kilometers long at an average of 5%. If he didn’t already have enough of an advantage on the stage given his elite descending skills, Vincenzo Nibali’s diesel climbing style will serve him well in his bid to reach finish the long, grueling challenge ahead of his opponents. The ascent is highly irregular, however, with a flat portion 6 kilometers in, followed by a quick but very steep downhill turn a little over 7 kilometers in, and then a section of roughly 5 kilometers with gradients pushing 18% before things ease off a bit near the finish. In other words, there will be opportunities for aggressive climbers to attack, paving the way for a serious GC showdown between all the big names on Stage 10. Only the riders on elite form will be able to hang in front here. Purito will surely find a section of road to power ahead, as might his teammate Dani Moreno. Carlos Betancur would love this stage if he were feeling up for it, but he has struggled mightily so far. Roman Kreuziger is the full all-rounder package, an elite climber and time trialist with the capacity for quick bursts up upward speed as well: that skill set will set him up nicely on this climb if he decides to target the victory. It will be a true test for riders who have not looked sharp yet, ie. Samuel Sanchez and Sergio Henao (though, if he can find his form, he has a surprisingly strong combination of long-term power and quick acceleration in his engine that would suit him here), as there is very little respite after the downhill section ends and the punishing steep section begins with still roughly 7 kilometers remaining. As a side note, the descent to the start of the climb will be an interesting gauge of Thibaut Pinot’s progress in his struggle to overcome a fear of going down; if he can get over that obstacle, his fresher legs (he abandoned the Tour before it’s toughest days) and overall ability could make him a real danger not only for this climb but for the GC battle in general. Stage 10 should tell us what is what this Vuelta.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Joaquim Rodriguez | 3. Roman Kreuziger

-Dane Cash

Photo by Contando Estrelas.

August 30, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 3: Where We Stand After Three Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 4-7

Day 3: Early Fireworks

As expected, the big GC show started right away in the 2013 Vuelta. First, a hotly contested team time trial put some favorites into strong positions (Vincenzo Nibali, and Sky’s Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran) and left others down a little more than they might have liked (Ivan Basso, Michele Scarponi, and Dan Martin). Then, stage two shook up the fight for the red jersey when the lead group dropped heavy hitters like the aforementioned Sergio Henao and Samuel Sanchez, who lost a few minutes on GC, and Carlos Betancur, who put himself completely out of contention rolling in more than nine minutes down. Nicolas Roche led a late attack over the line with other GC outsiders Dani Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, and Leopold Konig, and the rest of the big names were close behind. Stage 3 saw some danger moments for a number of riders after crashes and windy conditions caused splits, but things got organized for the final climb. 41 year old American Chris Horner (RSLT) attacked late and the rest of the big names just stared at each other, allowing the veteran to nab the stage victory and the red jersey. Valverde won the sprint behind him and a few small gaps formed on the summit finish, but all of the favorites finished within a few seconds of each other. Now, after a thrilling first three days, the Vuelta turns to four straight days that could potentially be for the sprinters.

Stage 4: Lalín > Fisterra | 189km | Flat

There is only one categorized climb on the menu, but Stage 4 is rather lumpy, enough to spur a breakaway move early. The peloton will fight to reel them in, and the generally downhill/flat stretch of about thirty kilometers leading into the finish will favor the pursuit. Then, the road heads up at roughly 3.5% for the finish at a beautiful promontory (pictured above) that was once the edge of the known world for much of Western Europe. It’s enough to give an advantage to the lighter, more capable climbers of the sprinting crowd, and a bend in the road in final few hundred kilometers will favor a well-marshaled, aggressive squad. Assuming the pack finishes together, this sounds perfect for Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Gianni Meersman. He’s been on fire this year, and his legs don’t have any Grand Tour mileage in them other than what they’ve covered so far this week. BMC will potentially look to set up Philippe Gilbert again, especially after he was unable to threaten in Stage 3. It might not be steep enough for Gilbert to outshine some of the stronger kicks in the peloton, especially with his recent nasty knee injury. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen would be an obvious pick here were it not for his shoulder injury from the Tour de France; with those concerns, it is harder to say how he will fare. He was dropped from the Sky train in the opening time trial, but he looked okay climbing up the summit finish of Stage 3. Orica-GreenEdge has both Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews, and it seems like they’ll favor the latter here, though it’s never easy to tell with OGE. The finish might be a bit steep for Tyler Farrar, but he’s been very good this year. The two under-the-radar sprinters I tipped in my initial Vuelta preview, Argos Shimano’s Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg, could also factor here. If an aggressive rider manages to attack for the win, don’t be surprised if it’s Diego Ulissi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Grega Bole, or the resurgent Anthony Roux. And of course, the uphill finish could see Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, and other punchy, Ardennes-style GC types strike out for bonus seconds.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Philippe Gilbert | 4. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 174.3km | Medium Mountains

Another lumpy day, with two Cat 3 climbs and a lot of uncategorized ascending, Stage 5 will also likely see a lot of attacking early. However, the road angles downward again with plenty of distance left, and with one of the few relatively flat finishes in this Vuelta awaiting the peloton at the end of the line, those sprinters who have made it over the hills will be extra-motivated to bring back anyone up the road. The lumps may force some selection, but it seems likely that this stage will go to a sprinter. If OGE decides to support Michael Matthews over Gerrans or Leigh Howard (and, as this is a more difficult stage but not an extremely difficult one, they seem likely to), this is a great opportunity for him. Tyler Farrar isn’t guaranteed to make it, but as few sprinting opportunities as there are in this race, he’ll surely be giving every one of them 100%. Gianni Meersman and (assuming he’s healthy enough) Edvald Boasson Hagen probably won’t have much trouble with the climbing, so they’re sure to challenge. Whomever Argos-Shimano decides to back, Janse van Rensburg or Ardnt, will have a good opportunity as well. Cannondale’s young up-and-comer Daniele Ratto might be in the mix. If BMC decides to support Gilbert for the sprints at the end of every difficult stage, he could be involved here, too. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus, should he manage to finish with the bunch, is a danger if he makes it to the finish with the pack and with his strength, and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Andrew Fenn is a name to keep in mind as well. Finally, Fabian Cancellara’s goals in this Vuelta are rather unclear, but he might target this stage with its potentially selective early climbs, but flatter finish.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Edvald Boasson Hagen

Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 175km | Flat

Stage 6 is the flattest stage so far, one that the sprinters will have circled in the road book. There is a very short kick upward not far from the finish line, but it seems likely that the stage will end in a bunch sprint contested by the big names. Tyler Farrar is the first one that comes to mind. Barry Markus of Vacansoleil and Adrien Petit of Cofidis will be eager to sure what they can do, if they haven’t already in the previous two stages. We will probably know the rider that Argos is favoring by this point, so keep an eye on Stages 4 and 5 to get an idea of the direction in which they’re heading in terms of Ardnt vs. Janse van Rensburg. We’ll also probably have a better idea of how Boasson Hagen is doing by this point. As always, Meersman could be in play, or it could be a time for Andrew Fenn. Orica-GreenEdge might go with Leigh Howard here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Gianni Meersman

Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 205.9km | Flat

I hate to say it, but with so many consecutive stages that could go to sprinters, I’m running out of things to say about them. Stage 7 is almost certain to end in a bunch gallop, and by this point, if you’ve been watching the previous bunch sprints, you’ll already have a good sense of what is what in this race. It should be the usual suspects here, and it’s probably Farrar’s best shot to win a stage until the Madrid finale. Same goes for Leigh Howard, given OGE’s stated intention of giving Michael Matthews the green light on harder stages. This could be a stage for Andrew Fenn of OPQS, or they could stick with Meersman. You should be familiar with the rest of the names now: Boasson Hagen, Markus, Arndt/Janse van Rensburg, Petit. Watching from home, Theo Bos will rue the low cortisol levels that kept him out of the race.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tyler Farrar | 2. Barry Markus | 3. Leigh Howard

-Dane Cash

Photo by Oscar Anton.

August 26, 2013
Vattenfall Cyclassics 2013 Preview

To Hamburg!

While many of the world’s biggest GC threats are suffering in Spain, some of cycling’s fastest fast men are headed to Hamburg, Germany for the annual sprintfest known as the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The course, which loops a few times around the greater Hamburg area, ostensibly contains a lump or two, but the difficult ascents amount to little more than repeated trips over one very short berg and a few bridges.

Every edition in recent memory (and it hasn’t been around very long) has ended in a bunch sprint, and every recent winner has been a marquee sprinter. Last year, Arnaud Demare nabbed the victory and relegated power sprinter Andre Greipel to second place. With another Cyclassic final likely to come down to a mass gallop, the leaderboard should once again read as a who’s who of on-form hard finishers, albeit minus Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and two-time winner Tyler Farrar, who is spending a few days in Spain.

Leading the way, certainly somewhere near the top, should be Andre Greipel. He’s been 3rd and 2nd here before, he’s got a strong leadout squad, and he looks very sharp right now. He was right there with Cav and Kittel in so many Tour de France finishes, but he only notched one victory, losing out in photo finishes to his countryman Kittel twice. He won a stage in the Eneco Tour, but will surely feel robbed of better results after Mark Renshaw galloped out ahead around a sharp turn on the flat, would-be sprinter’s first stage; Greipel won the bunch sprint for second. He stayed sharp all week, winning in the fourth stage and gunning for the intermediates in an attempt to nab the points jersey, only to be pipped by a whopping one point by Lars Boom in the end. In other words, the form is definitely there, but the Gorilla will be hungry for more concrete results. This is the only WorldTour race in his home country, and a perfect opportunity for him to finally take a one-day victory at the WT level.

Last year’s winner Demare has been sharp recently as well, taking a victory of his own in the Eneco Tour to add to several other big wins this year. He’s just 21 years old, and he’s got a strong finishing kick and a healthy dose of endurance, making him a good bet on a long race like this one.

Young Radioshack sprinter Giacomo Nizzolo rounded out last year’s podium. He’s won a pair of sprint victories this year at the Skoda Tour de Luxembourg, but those were against rather weak competition. However, he looked very strong at this month’s Eneco Tour, where, like Greipel, he probably felt robbed of a victory when Zdenek Stybar won stage 3 with an attack near the finish: Nizzolo won the bunch sprint behind him. He was just behind Greipel on Stages 2 and 4. After knocking at the door all week in the Low Countries, Nizzolo would love to make a statement at Vattenfall, and I think he has a great shot at it.

Alexander Kristoff was 4th here back in 2010 when he was just 23. After back-to-back finishes just outside the top 10, I think he’s on track for another strong showing this year: he’s been on fire basically since March, winning one of the Three Days of De Panne to kick off a string of high placings in major races, including top 10s in Paris-Roubaix, Milano-San Remo, and the Tour of Flanders, three wins in the Glava Tour, and a win over Peter Sagan in a sprint at the Tour de Suisse. He was always in the mix in the Tour de France sprints despite lacking much team support. Katusha won’t be distracted here, and he’s got the all-around fastman package to add to his palmares this year.

Gerald Ciolek was second in the 2011 edition and MTN Qhubeka is here again with a big showing in mind. Toiling away on a Pro Continental squad, Ciolek has only attended two WorldTour races this year, but he won one of them, and it happened to be the monumental Milano-San Remo. Recent good results in the run-up to this event are scarce for him, but they were in 2011 as well, and Ciolek is a tough, smart racer in his home country, and he doesn’t get as many opportunities to race on the highest level as he should.

Thor Hushovd, recently back from a long slump, will clip in Sunday looking for more results. He won a pair of stages in Poland and has taken a slew of recent victories in smallar races. German sprinter John Degenkolb actually hasn’t raced here before, and he’ll be in attendance as well, but he hasn’t really lived up to his name lately. He’ll look to get back on track in front of a crowd full of countrymen. Orica GreenEdge sends both Matt Goss and Daryl Impey. Goss is a better pure sprinter, but of course he’s been invisible lately. Impey will take up the slack if Goss drops off the back early, as has been his M.O. for a while, though if he does make it to the finish, this is a good opportunity for him to get his mojo back. Elia Viviani will be days removed from a win at the Dutch Food Valley Classic. He was always in the mix at the Giro and picked up a win in the Dauphine; I don’t know if he can outkick some of the stronger names in attendance, but being in the mix isn’t out of the question. Lampre sends Filippo Pozzato, also in the mix often at the Giro.

Belkin’s Lars Boom and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Alessandro Petacchi are both coming off of Eneco Tours in which they featured prominentaly in a number of sprint stages. Boom, as has been mentioned, worked hard for the points jersey as a consolation for missing out on GC. He’ll want more results this year after a disappointing spring. Petacchi will be supported by an always strong OPQS squad that includes Michal Kwiatkowski. Movistar’s J.J. Rojas, master of the decent-but-not-great finishing sprint, was 5th here in 2011 and can probably muster another top 10. Saxo-Tinkoff’s Daniele Bennati last raced here in 2010, and he finished 5th then. He seems to be slowing down but he looked alright without much team support in the Tour. His teammate Matti Breschel was 2nd in the 2009 edition and looked very strong in the recent Tour of Denmark.

Vacansoleil is sending both van Poppels. Danny was the better rider in the Tour de France, where he managed a top three finish on the first stage. Hard to call.

My under-the-radar pick is Garmin’s 25 year old Steele von Hoff, who hung right with Hushovd on stage 3 of the Tour de Pologne and then won the bunch sprint for second place moments behind Taylor Phinney on stage 4. Those were long days in the saddle, much like this will be, and the time seems right for him to make a splash. Garmin also has the young Raymond Kreder.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Andre Greipel

Podium

Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo

Top 10

Arnaud Demare, Gerald Ciolek, Thor Hushovd, Elia Viviani, Lars Boom, J.J. Rojas, John Degenkolb

Under the Radar Challenger

Steele von Hoff

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sum_of_Marc.

August 24, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

Day 0: Starting with a Bang

No easing into this one. The Vuelta opens with a team time trial and back-to-back steep uphill finishes. That means the contenders will have to be on their game from the moment they clip in on the first stage. I’ve already covered most of “where we stand” in my comprehensive race preview, so let’s get to it.

Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

It isn’t a long team time trial, and it’s not hilly either. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be hoping to defend their world TTT title at the upcoming championships in Italy, and after just missing out in the Tour de France, they will be gunning for this one. Tony Martin leads the squad, but they are missing some of their big pieces, like Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra. Still, they’ve got some talent here. Astana’s strong squad looks poised to challenge them. Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff both have a boatload of talented riders, but this parcours might be a bit flat for them. Sky’s roster isn’t packed with as many TT stars as it was in the Giro and the Tour, but they’ll probably be alright. Speaking of the Tour, Orica-GreenEdge fielded a very different squad there, and I don’t expect them to provide back to back Grand Tour TTT wins. RadioShack – Leopard will be led by Fabian Cancellara. Don’t overlook them, despite their aging roster behind him. Traditional favorites BMC and Garmin aren’t packing many heavy hitters. Katusha will be gunning to keep Purito from losing too much time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Astana | 2. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 3. Movistar | 4. Radioshack-Leopard

Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

We had to wait until the eight day of the Tour de France to get a summit finish. The Vuelta will be cutting to the chase much more quickly. The run to the top of Monte da Groba includes a Category 3 climb well before the halfway point and is otherwise pretty flat. However, 11km before the finish, the road turns up and stays steep until the summit finish. The average grade is 5.6%, with a 10% section early, a litte break in the middle, and then an 8% section near the top. It’s an early test, and gaps will surely form, but they aren’t likely to be devastating. Carlos Betancur has had plenty of time to rest since the Giro, and while it’s possible he might not be able to sustain a high level all Vuelta, he’s sure to be gunning for every uphill finish out there. For all his success, he has yet to claim his first WorldTour win. I’ll take a few stars of the Giro here, who have had plenty of time to recharge since they last Grand Toured. It’s also possible that a non-GC threat could be allowed to go up the road.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Sergio Henao | 3. Vincenzo Nibali

Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

Stage 2’s finish isn’t backbreaking, but it should tell us at least a little bit about what’s what in this Vuelta. That means that anything I have to say about a Stage 3 could be completely out-of-date by the time the riders take to the road on Monday, but I’ll go ahead and make some predictions anyway. Until the last 4 kilometers, Stage 3 presents the riders with nary a hill. Then comes the finish, a climb of roughly 6%. With such a flat profile leading into the day’s only real climb, which is a short one, competition will be hot and heavy as the peloton hits the Cat. 3 at a very high pace. It’s steep, but not that steep, and the slope eases a bit in the last few hundred meters; a group of hard-chargers could come across the line together. The last image I saw of Philippe Gilbert was a bloodied and bruised leg post-crash in the Eneco Tour, but he is back on the bike and will love this opportunity to nab his first win of the year, especially after coming so close in Benelux (where he was 2nd on an uphill sprint to Arnaud Demare before crashing on the stage that perhaps best suited his skills). Other familiar hard-finishing, uphill-capable names could be in the mix as well. Alejandro Valverde and Purito Rodriguez should jump at the opportunity to pick up bonus seconds with a short uphill sprint. Roman Kreuziger, Simon Gerrans, Dan Martin, and Bauke Mollema might be in the hunt, too.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Simon Gerrans | 4. Joaquim Rodriguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Sean Rowe, Profiles from www.lavuelta.com.

August 23, 2013