Author: VeloHuman

Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Ourense › Parque Nacional Castrelo de Miño – 27.8km (TTT)

The Vuelta kicks off with a team time trial, and a surprisingly unpredictable one at that. Though there are several good TT teams in the race, none of them looks particularly dominant, leaving this battle against the clock open for the taking.

There are several corners to navigate on the parcours, but the 27.8km route is a flat one that will favor the big engines.

Team Sky is my prohibitive favorite, with the talent and the motivation to come out of this with an early advantage. Led by Chris Froome and Michal Kwiatkowski, Sky has a good – if not great – squad in Spain.

Movistar should perform well for similar reasons; they too have motivation and big engines, though a number of their strongest riders against the clock aren’t making the start. Still, they should be right up there in contention.

Etixx-QuickStep has a number of Classics riders on the roster who should be able to turn a high cadence for a half hour. That makes them dangerous. BMC is another contender, always strong against the clock, though their Vuelta lineup is not exactly the TTT world champion squad.

LottoNL-Jumbo is a great candidate to surprise. The Dutch squad doesn’t have quiet the reputation of the some of the other TTT contenders, but with Jos van Emden leading the way, the squad has a nice shot to nab the stage.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Team Sky | 2. Movistar | 3. Etixx-QuickStep

August 20, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016 Preview

The Vuelta may be seen as the third most prestigious of the three Grand Tours, but for several years running the race has delivered plenty of thrills and big names. This year should be no different. Plenty of top GC stars are making the start in Spain hungry to pick up a big victory before the season ends.

The Route

As Vuelta routes go, this year’s is relatively tame. There are mountaintop finishes, sure, but nothing quite so extreme as l’Angliru or the Andorra stage from 2015. Instead, the mountains are spread across multiple stages, with the middle of the race offering the most opportunities for GC action.

The race begins in Galicia and makes its way eastward along the northern coast of Spain until arriving in the Basque Country, taking advantage of the hilly terrain there along the way. As such, expect things to be a bit wetter than they often are in the Vuelta, at least in the first half of the race.

After a medium-distance stage 1 TTT, the GC battle should be mostly quiet (apart from a a few punchy days) until Stage 8, the first mountaintop finish. Climber-friendly stages 9 through 11 will keep things interesting (with a rest day after Stage 10).

The next two days of racing are for the stagehunters, but Stage 14 is probably the most challenging in the Vuelta, closing out with a 16.5km climb at 7.1%. Stage 15 is a tough one as well, with a Cat. 1 finale.

A sprinter-friendly Stage 16 brings the race into Catalonia and the eastern coast of Spain. A rest day follows, before a mountainous Stage 17 but then a less-than-challenging Stage 18.

Stage 19 will be a critical battleground, especially in a race without any marquee days of especially brutal climbs; it’s a 37km time trial, and a mostly flat one at that. The TT specialists with big engines will have a chance to make a big difference here before the GC finale in Stage 20. The penultimate day of racing may not have any particularly steep ascents, but four Cat. 2s leading into a 21 kilometers of climbing to the finish (with a 5.9% gradient) won’t be a walk in the park.

The race finishes in Madrid with a day that should suit the sprinters.

The General Classification Contenders

The Vuelta has been rather hard to predict in recent years, and it looks like a tough one to call this year as well. There’s plenty of talent on the startlist, and unclear form and motivation among the top names in the race.

Chris Froome is the best GC rider in the world right now, and he’s been after a Vuelta win for a long time. The form is a question mark, but given his ability, I have a hard time seeing anyone else as the favorite for this race. He’s got the all-round skillset to dominate if he’s feeling strong, and even if he’s not at 100% he’ll still be hard to beat.

Alberto Contador is also a well-rounded rider who should thrive on this parcours. He also has the advantage of being fresher than most of the other top contenders, who are coming from the Tour de France. That has proven to be a critical factor in recent Vuelta victories, and it shouldn’t be underestimated this year.

It’s hard to say which of Movistar’s dynamic duo of Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana will prove strongest in Spain. Quintana may be the young, rising GC star, but Valverde looked just as strong at the Tour, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Quintana lined up in support of Valverde at the Vuelta. That said, I think Quintana is more capable of actually winning the race, if he can find some form. He is unquestionably better at peak form than Valverde is.

Giro runner-up Esteban Chaves took a big step up this season. A second top-notch Grand Tour ride will be a tall order, especially given the flat TT in the final week, but he’s a contender for sure. So too is Steven Kruijswijk. He’s a bit of a wildcard after a surprising Giro, but if he rides like he did in Italy, he could win the Vuelta.

Louis Meintjes, Miguel Ángel López, Robert Gesink, Samuel Sánchez, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, and Pierre Rolland are others to watch in the battle for the red jersey.

The Stagehunters

There are very few top-shelf sprinters making the Vuelta start. That means it’s up to the likes of Kristian Sbaragli, Nikias Arndt, Gianni Meersman, and Tyler Farrar to battle for wins on the flat stages.

Despite the absence of sprinters, there are plenty of punchy types in Spain who will appreciate the many intermediate stages. Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans, and Fabio Felline are riders to watch on the bumpier days.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana
Other Top Contenders: Esteban Chaves, Alejandro Valverde, Steven Kruijswijk, Andrew Talansky, Miguel Ángel López, Samuel Sánchez, Tejay van Garderen

Photo by Pedro Semitiel (CC).

August 20, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Vuelta a España 2016, Part I

Episode 52: Vuelta a España 2016 Show, Part I

The Recon Ride looks ahead to the Vuelta a España, which has drawn some of the biggest names in the pro peloton to Spain for one last shot at Grand Tour glory.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano dive into the Vuelta’s route, startlist, and storylines, and Trek-Segafredo’s Kiel Reijnen weighs in on what’s it like to be gearing up for a first grand tour appearance.

Photo by Paco Rubio Ordás (CC).

August 18, 2016
Olympic Road Race 2016 Preview

Just a matter of hours after the opening ceremonies, the men’s Olympic peloton will be up bright and early Saturday for the main event. It may not carry quite the prestige of a grand tour victory, but the list of top riders with Olympic ambitions this year is pretty impressive, probably thanks to a course that favors the climbers. It should be a fun ride.

The Route

The Rio road parcours is tailored toward the climbers, with a profile to rival any one-day race on the top-level calendar.

The 241.5 kilometers of racing will take place mostly on two circuits, with four laps on the Grumari circuit and three on the Vista Chinesa circuit. The former involves a 1.2km climb at 7% and then a 2.1km climb at 4.5% (again, done four times). The latter is more challenging, with a one-two punch of the 3.7km, 9% Canoas climb and the 3.8km, 5.7% Vista Chinesa climb. After cresting the Vista Chinesa for the third and final time, the peloton will descend onto a flat finale of about 15km.

The Contenders

No matter how the race plays out, it will take strong climbing legs to bring home a gold medal. That said, there are a variety of potential race scenarios here. The climbs (and descents) are hard enough to spring a solo attacker, but the flat run-in is long enough to maybe see a reduced sprint. There’s no way a big group arrives at the line together, but it’s entirely possible that one of the stronger teams is able to reel in any long-range attempts to set up a high-speed battle at the line.

In either scenario, Alejandro Valverde is a dangerous rider. With his form and this course (tailored perfectly to his skillset), he’s a five-star favorite. Teammate Joaquím Rodríguez will have a shot as well. If the Spanish squad is smart, they’ll send Purito on the move on one of the final climbs and allow Valverde to follow any counter-moves. With the likes of Ion Izagirre also on the team, it seems like a great recipe for success—then again, Spain has a history of struggling to get behind a single objective in races like this.

The Italians may be more inclined to go all-in for their team leader Vincenzo Nibali. He’ll need to solo clear to win this one, but that’s entirely possible on the lumpy parcours. If he’d shown stronger form at the Tour he might be might top favorite; as it stands, he’s still one of them.

France has quite a one-two punch with Romain Bardet and Julian Alaphilippe, a pairing I see as capable of playing a similar strategy to the one Spain ought to be planning. Bardet can try for an attack from further out, while Alaphilippe can look to outsprint a small group. They’re a dangerous duo for sure.

Chris Froome is drawing most of the attention on the British squad but I’d be pretty surprised to see the stage racing specialist holding his own in a one-day event. It’s just not his forte, though he’s obviously got the climbing talent to survive on the parcours. Geraint Thomas might be a sneaky better choice.

The Dutch team is loaded with talents. Bauke Mollema, Tom Dumoulin, Wout Poels, and Steven Kruijswijk are all viable options, with Mollema and Poels in particular standing out as strong options. If they ride an aggressive race, they should be able to land a rider in the battle for the win.

Dan Martin will only have one teammate around to help him along, but this is a terrific parcours for the punchy Irishman. It remains to be seen, however, just how well he’s recovered from the Tour.

If Michal Kwiatkowski had shown any form whatsoever since the early spring he’d be among the very top favorites for Rio. As it stands he’s still a worthwhile mention on the list of contenders, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him. Rui Costa, who preceded Kwiatkowski as world champion, should like the profile as well, given his appreciation for the long-range attack.

A strong Colombian quartet of Esteban Chaves, Rigoberto Urán, Sergio Henao, and Jarlinson Pantano, the Belgian trio of Tim Wellens, Philippe Gilbert, and Greg Van Avermaet, and Michael Albasini, Roman Kreuizger, and Michael Woods are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Romain Bardet
Other Top Contenders: Joaquím Rodríguez, Bauke Mollema, Wout Poels, Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa

August 6, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Olympic Road Race 2016

Episode 51: Olympic Road Race 2016 Pre-race Show

A climber-friendly course in Rio should make for a compelling Olympic road race this weekend. The Recon Ride previews the action.

[powerpress]

For three out of every four years, the Tour de France may be the only bike race drawing a modest global audience, but once in a while cycling enters the greater public eye with a second event thanks to the Olympics! Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the upcoming men’s road race in Rio de Janeiro, which offers plenty of talking points…

Photo by Paul Wilkinson (CC).

August 4, 2016
Clásica de San Sebastián 2016 Preview

The cycling season may be over for casual fans, but this weekend’s Clásica de San Sebastián proves there’s plenty of good bike racing still watch this year. The one-day trek on the undulating roads of the Basque Country tends to be pretty exciting, though hopefully this year’s edition will eschew the whole motorcycle-running-into-the-potential-race-winner thing.

The Route

The race is 220.2km long with six “categorized” climbs. The first is just an appetizer to possibly spring a long-range break. Then comes a two-climb circuit that the peloton will traverse twice (for a total of four climbs). The first ascent is the Jaizkibel, basically a small mountain, and then the short but steep Arkale. After two trips up and over both comes the final climb, the Tontorra, also short and steep but harder than the Arkale. From the top, it’s just 8km to the finish, most of it downhill.

The Contenders

On such a hilly parcours, the climbers and punchy classics specialists reign supreme—though the great thing about this race is that both have a shot at winning. Last year was a good example of this: winner Adam Yates is a Grand Tour-type climber, but the rider who probably would have won without moto interference, Greg Van Avermaet, is a Flemish classics star.

To recap, climbing legs and endurance for a tough day on the bike are both key. Having a finishing kick is important too, if you can’t drop everyone before the flat run-in to the line.

Alejandro Valverde is probably the top favorite in a very open field. He’s won before, he’s in good form, and the race suits him perfectly, with a profile hard enough to whittle things down and a finish that allows him to put his descending skills and sprint on display.

BMC brings two riders with excellent prospects. Greg Van Avermaet will probably be itching for revenge. I was actually surprised that he did so well last year (up until getting knocked out of the race) on such a hilly course, but if he could do it then, he can probably do it now. Past winner Philippe Gilbert is another terrific option if the form is there—though that’s a question mark.

Etixx has Dan Martin, who loves this sort of race, but he’s never done well in San Sebastián for whatever reason. Maybe that changes this year, with Rio on the horizon.

Katusha’s Joaquím Rodríguez is definitely a rider to watch. His punchy climbing legs are still among the best in the peloton, even as he nears retirement. Ilnur Zakarin is another option for the squad.

Adam Yates could certainly feature again, though last year’s win was a bit unconventional for me to be that confident in him. His brother Simon Yates and Michael Albasini are other options for the team.

2013 winner Tony Gallopin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Mikel Landa, Alberto Contador, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Diego Ulissi, Jarlinson Pantano, and Tim Wellens are other strong candidates for success Saturday.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquím Rodríguez, Greg Van Avermaet
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Dan Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Diego Ulissi

July 30, 2016