Category: Race Previews

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Castelrotto › Alpe di Siusi – 10.85km (ITT)

Just in case Stage 14 was not decisive enough for you, Giro organizers planned a critical mountain time trial for the day after the queen stage.

10.85km from start to finish, the stage has an average gradient of a little over 7.2% all told, though the hard climbing only starts after 1.8km. From there it’s pretty steady the rest of the way up.

Sunday’s stage is all about who can generate the most watts per kilogram at this point in the race, following an extremely difficult Saturday. A few days ago I thought this would be a pretty straightforward stage to predict, but given the way things played out in Stage 14, I’m not so sure now.

Vincenzo Nibali is a cautious favorite pick. At peak form, Nibali would be the clear top contender—but he looked to be just a bit off his best Saturday. I still think he combines TT ability with climbing legs better than anyone else on the startlist, but it could be closer than expected.

Steven Kruijswijk has forced himself into the conversation here. He doesn’t get a lot of credit as a time trialist, but he was a very impressive 5th in last year’s 14th stage of the Giro. Combined with the way he’s been going uphill, he’s a real contender for the stage win here.

So is Esteban Chaves. TTs aren’t really his thing but he’s not the worst rider against the clock, and it shouldn’t matter too much with the gradient of this climb. Chaves is flying in this Giro.

Then there’s Alejandro Valverde. A few days ago I would have thought he’d be in with a shot at the win here but he really struggled in Stage 14. On the other hand, one thing that makes a guy like Valverde a perennial GC contender is his ability to deliver consistently through three weeks. I’m not counting him out after one bad day.

Ilnur Zakarin and Rafal Majka both have a chance on this stage. Majka in particular has done very well in Giro mountain time trials in the past. Rigoberto Urán, Andrey Amador, Bob Jungels, and Primoz Roglic are others who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Steven Kruijswijk | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 22, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Alpago › Corvara – 210km

It’s been one stagehunter-focused day after another at the Giro d’Italia so far, but that changes Saturday in Stage 14, a day that should provide a critical GC showdown.

The profile speaks for itself. The six categorized climbs are hard and relentless, with plenty of tricky descending thrown in for good measure.

Of particular note is the first ascent. The Cat. 1 Passo Pordoi is officially only 9.25km at 6.9%, but the peloton must climb for over 60km to even get to that point. It’s essentially a 70km climb with a gradient of a little under 3%—and that’s just to kick off the action.

After a few more tough climbs comes the Passo Giau, nearly 10km at over 9%. That’s steep enough to spur plenty of GC action. The Cat. 2 that follows is no joke either, and then comes a descent into the finale, where a short but very steep uncategorized ascent leads into a gentler uphill finish.

I expect the General Classification to blow apart on this stage. It’s going to find riders out, and the gaps to any stragglers could be huge. That said, the stage doesn’t finish atop a mountain, which could give a small group a chance to come home together.

The breakaway has a chance on this hard-to-control day, but I don’t see any one long-range specialist as a big favorite. I do see two key names among the pink jersey hopefuls, however, so I’ll start there.

To me, this stage has Vincenzo Nibali written all over it. He isn’t just the best climber in the race (when at peak form at least), he’s also among the best descenders. That will be hugely important on a stage with so many downhill sections to navigate. The race is still more open than most people would have expected but I know, so it’s time for Nibali to take control of the GC, and this is the perfect opportunity to do it.

Alejandro Valverde could give him a run for his money. The Spaniard is also a great descender, and he has Nibali beat in a sprint if they both come to the line together. Morever, Movistar has looked very impressive in this race. They can put a lot of pressure on with Andrey Amador leading the race and Valverde lurking, and they have several riders who can jump into the breakaway to provide support in the finale as well.

Esteban Chaves and Steven Kruijswijk have both been climbing very well and could be involved here as well. Ilnur Zakarin could stand to improve as a descender but he’s so good when he’s in form that he can’t be overlooked either. Rafal Majka has been quiet so far in the race but I think he could be very dangerous in this stage too.

It’s hard to say who might get involved if this is a day for the breakaway, especially since many of the top picks just spent a tough day out front in Stage 13. Giovanni Visconti and Mikel Nieve are both candidates for success here. So is Damiano Cunego. Stefano Pirazzi has looked okay so far in the Giro but his Bardiani-CSF teammate Giulio Ciccone may be a better bet.

Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Sebastian Henao are others with long-range potential in Stage 14.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves

May 21, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Palmanova › Cividale del Friuli › 170km

Stage 13 is a tough one, a day that should shake up the GC a bit even if the finale is flat. The double pairing of Cat. 1 and Cat. 2 climbs probably won’t win anyone the Giro, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see major selection going over the last two ascents.

With two critically important, challenging stages to follow Stage 13, there is a chance the GC team will keep the powder dry Friday, which would give the breakaway a real shot on this profile. I’d say it’s about 50/50, but if the stage does come down to the GC contenders, I see one rider as the clear favorite: Alejandro Valverde. The versatile Spaniard should be in the mix at the head of affairs in the finale, getting into the wheels of his rivals, and if he’s in the lead group battling for the stage win, it’s hard to see anyone beating him in a sprint.

Vincenzo Nibali, with his excellent descending skills, and Rigoberto Urán, surprisingly quick in a flat finish, are other GC names to watch.

Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, and Alessandro De Marchi headline the list of riders whose options for victory include a long-range move. We haven’t seen that much from De Marchi yet, but in peak form I like him better for this stage than even Ulissi or Wellens.

Damiano Cunego, Stefano Pirazzi, Carlos Betancur, and perhaps even Stage 10 winner Giulio Ciccone are others on the list of candidates for long-distance success.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Tim Wellens | 3. Diego Ulissi

May 20, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Noale › Bibione – 182km

The Giro’s 12th stage is one for the sprinters. The road route is pancake-flat from start to finish, and with some tough stages to come, the sprinters’ teams should be fully motivated to keep things together for a bunch kick.

The day’s most interesting feature is the finale. Stage 12 finishes with two laps of an 8-kilometer circuit, with plenty of corners to navigate. The final 3 kilometers include multiple 90-degree turns and a few other less extreme corners. Positioning will be critical in Bibione.

With Marcel Kittel out of the race, André Greipel has established himself as the man to beat in the bunch kicks, so he’s absolutely a favorite for Stage 12. However, Greipel can sometimes be timid in technical situations. This finale could see the Gorilla drop back a bit, and with the sharp corners running every few hundred meters all the way to the finish line, there won’t be anywhere to make up lost ground.

Should that happen, Giacomo Nizzolo could be the one to capitalize. He may not win that many races, but positioning in the final 300 meters is rarely the problem. This is just the sort of day for the Italian.

Caleb Ewan isn’t necessarily known for his ability to handle tricky finishes, but his top-end speed makes him an obvious candidate for success on the stage. Familiar sprinting names like Sacha Modolo and Arnaud Démare are others to watch, while Moreno Hofland and Matteo Trentin are decent outsiders.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Caleb Ewan

May 19, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Modena › Asolo – 227km

I hate to say it, but Stage 11 of the 2016 Giro d’Italia will likely be very boring for the first 200 kilometers. Fortunately, the finale looks quite interesting. After the peloton traverses pancake-flat roads for more than four hours, they’ll hit a lumpy final 30km that could spring attacks.

The short but steep Cat. 4 crested at kilometer 207, just under 3km at almost 8%, will almost certainly inspire a few aggressors. It will also put pressure on the sprinters. From the top it’s a steep descent into a few more rollers, with a key uncategorized climb of around 1.5km at 6% inside the final 5km. Said climb includes a bit of cobblestones, and it is followed by a descent. The road only flattens out for the final kilometer, which won’t really give anyone who gets dropped on the uphill time to get back into position.

The early breakaway has a shot at this stage if the sprinters teams don’t get organized—I’d expect the day’s move to get a big gap early on in the day. However, if the bunch decides to chase, it shouldn’t be too hard to close down the gap. My first inclination is that this stage will end in a reduced sprint.

Sonny Cobrelli is a great candidate for Stage 11, either from the break or the bunch, given his impressive finishing kick and his ability to handle short climbs. If he’s in the group fighting it out for the win at the end of the day, I expect a lot from the Italian.

The same is true of Diego Ulissi. He prefers uphill sprints, but he’s quite speedy even in a flat finish like this one. Tim Wellens is another rider to watch with these late climbs, whether he gets in the early move or decides to stick with the pack.

André Greipel can’t be counted out for a potential sprint finish. He’s very strong right now, and he has improved a great deal on tougher profiles in recent years. Arnaud Démare may be a better pick for the stage, however, as he seems a bit more likely to stay well-positioned over the late climbs. The same could be said for Giacomo Nizzolo.

To me, the biggest threat for a sprint outside of Colbrelli is Alejandro Valverde. It’ll be touch and go whether the purer sprinters can survive the stage, but Valverde should be right there in the mix if it comes down to the peloton. Matteo Trentin, Enrico Battaglin, Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch on Stage 11.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Sonny Colbrelli | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. André Greipel

May 18, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Campi Bisenzio › Sestola – 219km

The Giro’s 10th stage takes the peloton 219 kilometers on undulating roads from Tuscany into Emilia-Romagna. With a Cat. 1 climb 16 kilometers from the line and a Cat. 3 uphill finish, it’s definitely going to open up a few gaps on the general classification, with the punchy types having a leg in the finale.

As far as the battle for the stage win, however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long-range (and still punchy) attacker take this prize, whether it’s a member of the early breakaway or someone jumping clear towards the end of the day.

Tim Wellens, currently leading the King of the Mountains competition, fits the bill. He already has one stage victory in this Giro and this would be a great opportunity for another.

Diego Ulissi is another name that stands out as a candidate to win either from the main breakaway, with a late attack, or even in a reduced uphill sprint. Versatility comes in handy on stage like this.

Alessandro De Marchi, Damiano Cunego, Giovanni Visconti, and Stefano Pirazzi are other candidates for long-distance success in Stage 10.

If the GC contenders battle it out at the finish, Alejandro Valverde will be the clear favorite. This is just the sort of finish that he loves.

Rigoberto Urán may have lost serious ground in the Stage 9 TT, but I wouldn’t underestimate him here. He’s quick to the line and could get some breathing room if he decides to jump into a late move.

The stage probably isn’t difficult enough for Mikel Landa, Vincenzo Nibali, or Esteban Chaves to be in their element but don’t count them out either. 10 days into the Giro, no one rider has really establish himself as the man to beat in this race, so it’s about time someone gets aggressive in the battle for the pink jersey.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Tim Wellens | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Alejandro Valverde

May 17, 2016