Category: Race Previews

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Radda in Chianti › Greve in Chianti – 40.5km (ITT)

The Giro’s ninth stage is a critical 40.5-kilometer individual time trial with a very intriguing profile. There is a significant net altitude loss on the day, meaning that while there is some climbing to do, the heavier TT specialists should really enjoy this one.

The course has a few technical sections along the way. The main challenge comes in the final third of the stage as the riders take on a climb of about 5km at a little under 4%. From the top, it’s downhill almost all the way to the line.

A few days ago, Tom Dumoulin would have been my heavy favorite for this stage, given the form he showed early in the Giro. I’d still name him as my top favorite, but his less-than-stellar showing on Stage 8 has me a bit concerned that maybe he’s not feeling 100% at the moment. Still, this time trial suits him well and he’s elite against the clock.

Fabian Cancellara is the other top TT specialist on the startlist, and if he weren’t recovering from illness he’d be a sure thing to contend for the stage win. As it stands, he’s definitely still a contender, but again, it’s hard to say just how well he’ll do. The descents do suit him.

Bob Jungels can run hot and cold but when he’s good, he’s good. He could be in the mix. Ilnur Zakarin should be in contention as well. He looks very strong right now. Rigoberto Urán is the other GC contender that I see having a good shot here. He’s been a bit quiet so far in this race, but he has to know that Stage 9 is his big chance to open up a gap to his pink jersey rivals.

Stefan Küng, Vincenzo Nibali, Alejandro Valverde, Primoz Roglic, Steven Kruijswijk, and Andrey Amador are others to watch in the ITT.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Ilnur Zakarin

May 15, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Foligno › Arezzo – 186km

The Giro’s 8th stage looks like one for the puncheurs. The first half of the day won’t be all that challenging, but a late Cat. 2 and an uphill finish should make things interesting. The Cat. 2 is a little over 10km at around 5%. From the top, it’s less than 20km to the finish, where the road kicks up at a gradient of around 5% again in the final kilometer, with some cobbles thrown in for good measure.

Too hard for the sprinters, Stage 8 will favor those with decent climbing legs and some pop. Whether it comes down to a long-range move or a reduced uphill sprint, the same kind of rider should do well here.

Alejandro Valverde is an obvious favorite on this kind of profile. If Movistar can push a hard pace on the Cat. 2 to whittle down the bunch a bit, he’ll be hard to beat at the finish. Diego Ulissi could be in the mix as well. If he can hold on over the Alpe di Poti climb (or if he can get into a long-distance move), he too will be a danger on the finishing straight.

Tim Wellens should like the look of this profile. He proved his form in Stage 6, and Saturday’s stage favors his skillset as well.

Vincenzo Nibali may have something up his sleeve given the high-speed descent that awaits less than 20km from the finish. It didn’t end up working out, but he showed in Stage 6 that he’s interested in be aggressive in pursuit of his GC ambitions this Giro.

Speaking of GC ambitions, this is a good parcours for pink-jersey-wearing Tom Dumoulin. Two-time Giro runner-up Rigoberto Urán may also like the look of the stage.

Sonny Colbrelli, Moreno Moser, Bob Jungels, Gianluca Brambilla, Carlos Betancur, and Damiano Cunego are others that might get involved on Stage 8 as well.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Tim Wellens

May 14, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Sulmona › Foligno – 211km

The Giro’s 7th stage looks like another day that will test the sprinters’ limits—though my first inclination is that there will be several fast men who survive the parcours to contest the finale. The profile continues just two categorized climbs, and the first comes very early in the stage.

The Cat. 4 crested 41 kilometers from the finish, however, looks harder than your normal Cat. 4. By the time the peloton reaches the top, they’ll have been climbing for about 17km at a gradient of around 3%. That’s not a particularly steep ascent, but it’s a long time to be going upward. It might be too much for some of the purer sprinters. It could also motivate a few attacks, which will, in turn, be more likely to go the distance if sprinters get dropped.

The finish is an interesting one, adding a further wrinkle to this story. There are four technical corners inside the final 1.5km: a hard right, two hard lefts, and then a right hook. It’s not a finish for the faint of heart.

I still see the most likely outcome as a field sprint, but this could be a nice chance for the quick men who haven’t quite been able to pull it off so far. Marcel Kittel and André Greipel will be the big favorites if they’re there in the last 500 meters, with the edge going to Kittel in a head to head—but that late climb might be a bit much for Kittel, and Greipel has never been the best in tricky finales, which at least makes it worth bringing up a few other names.

Giacomo Nizzolo can handle a lumpier day and he thrives in technical finishing circuits. This will definitely be a day he has on his mind. Arnaud Démare shouldn’t be troubled by the profile, and he has looked very strong so far in this race. Sacha Modolo could be in the mix as well.

Elia Viviani and Caleb Ewan are the other obvious sprint names that could factor in Stage 7.

And if the sprinters don’t make it to the line? Sonny Colbrelli, Diego Ulissi, Adam Hansen, and his teammate (and Stage 6 winner) Tim Wellens will likely be on the lookout for a chance to nab the stage.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

May 13, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Ponte › Roccaraso – 157km

The Giro may have opened with three relatively easy to predict stages, but Thursday’s Stage 6 marks the third straight tough one. Only 157 kilometers in length, the stage nevertheless involves a whole lot of climbing—while only officially including two Cat. 2 climbs.

As the profile indicates, however, both categorized ascents are each part of longer stretches of uphill roads that will wear down the peloton. The climb to the finish is officially just under 18km at a little over 4%. The long, low-gradient climb (coming after several other long uphill stretches on the stages) won’t win anyone the Giro d’Italia, but it will drop the sprinters. With fewer teams around trying to keep the stage together for a bunch kick, but nothing so steep as to force a GC showdown, this could be a great opportunity for the long-range attackers. On the other hand, if the pink jersey contenders do contest the victory as a group, this looks like a prime opportunity for Alejandro Valverde, who can outgun the rest of his rivals at the finish line. His speed is well-documented, and it makes him the man to beat among the GC hopefuls.

Diego Ulissi should be excited about this stage as well. He already has one win in the bag. Stage 6 is another great opportunity for the Italian with a fast finish.

Climbing stars Mikel Landa, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin, and Vincenzo Nibali are all candidates to get involved at the finish as well, but it might be too easy of a day for them to really shine. As such, I like Tom Dumoulin‘s chances a bit better. He has a faster finish than many realize. So does Rigoberto Urán.

If this stage does come down to a long-distance move, watch out for Valverde’s Movistar teammate Giovanni Visconti, who thrives on stages like this. Gianluca Brambilla, Stefano Pirazzi, Alessandro De Marchi, Tim Wellens, and even Damiano Cunego are other potential protagonists from afar.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Giovanni Visconti

May 12, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Praia a Mare › Benevento – 233km

The Giro’s fifth stage, much like Stage 4, won’t be easy to predict. There is only one small categorized climb on the day and it comes very early in the stage, but the road to Benevento does have some hills along the way, and this is a very long stage at 233 kilometers. More importantly, the finish is tricky: the final kilometer is a cobbled ascent at around 3.4%.

All those features will make Stage 5 a tough one to control, and even if things come down to a bunch gallop in the peloton, it’s no guarantee that the marquee sprinters will be at their best on a finishing climb like this.

Should the peloton reel in any long-range attackers before the line, Marcel Kittel would probably be the obvious pick for a sprint, but he might not be my first choice. He is looking more versatile these days than he used to, but I still think this finish might be a bit tough for the Etixx rider.

Arnaud Démare, on the other hand, should like his chances. He’s done well on slightly uphill finishes in the past, he can handle cobblestones, and he doesn’t mind a long day in the saddle (as evidenced by his Milano-Sanremo victory). He also looks very good right now.

André Greipel, who has recently shown some ability in the Spring Classics, is another rider who might be able to use the tricky finish to his advantage. The same could be said for Giacomo Nizzolo, who loves the longer days.

Sacha Modolo is another sprinter who may fare well at the finish, while Caleb Ewan and Elia Viviani are both quick enough that maybe the small cobbled climb won’t matter.

Diego Ulissi, Matteo Trentin, and Sonny Colbrelli could be in the mix if the purer sprinters are dropped from bunch. So could Ramunas Navardauskas.

And if the stage goes to a breakaway, don’t be surprised if Lotto-Soudal takes the victory: Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen should both like the look of Stage 5.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Arnaud Démare | 2. André Greipel | 3. Marcel Kittel

May 11, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Catanzaro › Praia a Mare – 200km

The first Italian stage of the Giro d’Italia gets underway Tuesday. It’s a lumpy affair of around 200 kilometers, with a pair of Cat. 3 climbs and an up-and-down (though uncategorized) finale. The parcours makes this stage a tough one to predict—it might be too difficult for the pure sprinters, but it’s not so challenging as to completely rule them out. The early breakaway will have a shot at staying clear here as well.

I see a reduced sprint as the most probable outcome, making the punchy types prime candidates for success. Diego Ulissi looked strong in the Ardennes this year and almost always performs well in his home Grand Tour. He has a very fast finish and won’t be troubled by the climbs.

Alejandro Valverde may find this stage to his liking as well, for the same reasons.

Sonny Colbrelli, a surprise 3rd in the Amstel Gold Race, should be in top shape for the Giro and is well-suited to the finale. The same could be said for Matteo Trentin, who doesn’t have that many opportunities to ride for his own results, but very often delivers when he does get the chance.

Of course, Trentin’s teammate Marcel Kittel might make it to the finish, in which case he’d be a heavy favorite for the sprint. The slightly more versatile Arnaud Démare might be a better bet. He can handle a few climbs. So can Giacomo Nizzolo—this could be his big chance to finale nab a Giro stage win.

Tim Wellens is another name to keep an eye on here. He could find the profile perfect for one of his characteristic long-range attacks.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Sonny Colbrelli

May 9, 2016