Category: Race Previews

Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Nijmegen › Arnhem – 190km

After Marcel Kittel’s Stage 2 victory, Giro fans may be in for a bit of déjà vu on Stage 3. The 190km stage starts in Nijmegen and finishes in Arnhem (the reverse of Saturday’s start/finish location) and only real climb on profile is a single Cat. 4 ,, into likely to have much of an attempt.

With all that said it’s hard not to pick against the rider who won Stage 2, Marcel Kittel.

The German rider should be able to take advantage of the flat parcours and put his impressive kick to the the test. At his best, Kittel is the best sprinter in the world, and at least recently, Kittel has looked very much like the rider who has eight Tour de France stage wins to his name.

André Greipel was not much of a factor on Stage 2, but he’s capable of having a big impact even in this strong field, if he can position himself well for the finale.

Caleb Ewan was also a bit of a disappointment, but it wouldn’t be wise to count the Aussie out on Stage 3.

Sacha Modolo, Arndaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, and Elia Viviani are others with a shot.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2 . André Greipel | 3. Caleb Ewan

May 8, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Arnhem › Nijmegen – 190km

After Tom Dumoulin’s home victory in Stage 1, the Giro continues with a sprinter-friendly Stage 2 in the Netherlands. There isn’t a whole lot to say about the route, as the only climb of the day, a Cat. 4, shouldn’t present much of a challenge for anyone. There are a few corners in the finale, including a left hook inside the final kilometer, but this should be a day for the fast finishers.

At his best, Marcel Kittel is the fastest rider in this field, and his 5th place finish in the TT would suggest that he’s feeling very strong right now. The Etixx rider is the man to beat in Stage 2. André Greipel looks to be his likeliest challenger, though don’t count out Caleb Ewan. He hasn’t had too much opportunities to face off against competition like this in a race this big, but that doesn’t mean he won’t factor.

Sacha Modolo and an always-effective Lampre Giro leadout could be in the mix as well, along with the speedy Elia Viviani and the ever-present Giacomo Nizzolo. Jakub Mareczko, Arnaud Démare, and Matteo Pelucchi are others to keep an eye on out of a very impressive list of sprinters at this Giro.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Caleb Ewan

Be sure to check out my overall race preview over at VeloNews, and don’t miss the Recon Ride’s pre-race show! Giacomo Nizzolo and Jakob Fuglsang both make an appearance in the podcast.

May 7, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016: Stage 1 Preview

Stage 1: Apeldoorn › Apeldoorn – 9.8km (ITT)

The 2016 Giro d’Italia opens in the Netherlands with a short, flat time trial. Without any climbs to speak of and good weather in the forecast, the corners will be the only real challenge on the day. Expect the specialists to shine here in the first battle for the pink jersey. In particular, those with top-end speed will like their chances.

Fabian Cancellara and Tom Dumoulin are the two big favorites here, though Cancellara apparently has the flu, which could make this Dumoulin’s to lose. He won’t have many opportunities like this to take a Giro stage win in his home country, and this TT suits him well.

Jos Van Emden is another home rider with a chance. He’s been a bit quiet since his second-place ride in the Tour of Qatar’s stage 2 TT, but he showed at last year’s Eneco Tour TT just how good he can be when things go his way. Bob Jungels, Anton Vorobyev, Mathias Brandle, Jack Bobridge, and Ramunas Narvadauskas are others who could be in the mix.

Keep an eye on Mikel Landa and Esteban Chaves on the day. The time trial mileage in this Giro could be the biggest challenge for both riders, and Stage 1 will be a good opportunity to get an idea of where they are in terms of form against the clock right now before the more critical Stage 9 ITT.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Fabian Cancellara | 3. Jos Van Emden.

Be sure to check out my overall race preview over at VeloNews, and don’t miss the Recon Ride’s pre-race show! Giacomo Nizzolo and Jakob Fuglsang both make an appearance in the podcast.

May 6, 2016
Giro d’Italia 2016 Preview

I had the privilege of previewing this year’s Giro d’Italia for VeloNews. Route, contenders, outsiders, it’s all there…

Check it out here.

And just in case you’re the type who only reads these previews for the Top 10 GC faves, here’s how I see it playing out:

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Mikel Landa, Alejandro Valverde
Other Top Contenders: Rafal Majka, Rigoberto Urán, Esteban Chaves, Domenico Pozzovivo, Jakob Fuglsang, Ilnur Zakarin, Tom Dumoulin

Of course, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, chock full of analysis and interviews to boot!

Photo by ENGIE Italia (CC).

May 5, 2016
Tour de Romandie 2016 Preview

The Spring Classics are in the books, which means it’s time for the Tour de Romandie to kick of several months of big-time stage races. The cycling world has been focused on flatter Northern Europe for the last few weeks, but the Swiss Alps should provide the stage racing GC riders with plenty of opportunities to strut their stuff.

The Route

The race opens with a very short prologue Tuesday before a mostly flat Stage 1. Stage 2 is likely to have some GC impact with two late climbs, though riders may keep their powder dry for the two all-important stages to come.

Stage 3 is a 15km time trial that does have a bit of a climb in it, while Stage 4 will pit the peloton against three Cat. 1 climbs (and two Cat. 3s). The 70th Tour de Romandie concludes with a likely sprinters’ stage in Geneva.

The Overall Contenders

Several former champions are making the start in Romandie this week. Team Sky brings a powerhouse squad led by two-time race winner Chris Froome, whose all-around talent makes him an obvious favorite. Geraint Thomas and Michal Kwiatkowski are also versatile riders whose ability to time trial and climb could put them into contention.

Katusha boasts two former winners in Simon Spilak and last year’s victor Ilnur Zakarin. Both riders thrive in one-weekers, and Spilak in particular has a long history of being very successful racing in Switzerland.

BMC’s one-two punch of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte seems almost certain to be in the mix. Porte landed a few Top 10s in the race in the past even when riding in a support role at Sky—given more room to roam, his one-week prowess and excellent TT abilities make him a very dangerous rider.

Nairo Quintana will love the mountainous Stage 4 and can’t be counted out as an overall contender. The time trial mileage is a bit of a question mark for the Colombian however, who may not be 100% motivated at this point in the season anyway. If he is, he’s a threat. If he’s not, Ion Izagirre may be the guy for Movistar.

Thibaut Pinot has turned into a strong time trialist, which will come in handy here. He had a good race in 2015, winning a stage. Cannondale’s three-pronged attack of Rigoberto Urán, Andrew Talansky, and Pierre Rolland could make things interesting. Rui Costa, like Spilak, always races well in Switzerland and has a knack for one-week affairs. He’s coming off a decent run at the Ardennes, which would suggest that the form is there.

Tom Dumoulin, Rafal Majka, Wilco Kelderman, Ryder Hesjedal, Mathias Frank, Miguel Ángel López, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, and Simon Yates are other potential GC protagonists to keep an eye on.

The Stagehunters

Five-time Romandie stage-winner Michael Albasini is an obvious candidate to pick up more victories this year, especially coming off a great week in the Ardennes. Marcel Kittel will be the heavy favorite for any bunch sprints, with Ben Swift and Moreno Hofland as potential outsiders.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Richie Porte
Podium: Chris Froome, Simon Spilak
Other Top Contenders: Nairo Quintana, Thibaut Pinot, Ilnur Zakarin, Rigoberto Urán, Rui Costa, Tejay van Garderen, Geraint Thomas

Photo by Georges Ménager (CC).

April 26, 2016
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2016 Preview

Sunday’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège caps off the 2016 Spring Classics season with a chance for the climbers to nab a big one-day victory. Plenty of big names will make start hoping to come away with a Monumental addition to their palmares in the 102nd edition of “La Doyenne.”

The Route

Liège-Bastogne-Liège takes the peloton 253km from Liège to Bastogne and then back to the general vicinity of Liège, with the finish line actually in the town of Ans. The parcours includes 10 climbs officially, though the race ends on a climb that will almost certainly be critical to the overall victory. The last two official climbs are likely to play a big role as well. Expect attacks to fly on the 1.2km Côte de Saint-Nicolas (8.6% average grade) and the new Côte de la Rue Naniot, a short climb at just 600 meters but steep enough to break things up at 10.5%.

The Contenders

Defending champion Alejandro Valverde is hunting down a fourth career win, and he certainly looks strong enough to pull it off after winning La Flèche Wallonne on Wednesday. His strong team should help keep the race under control so that he can dominate the finale with his strong finishing kick.

Etixx-QuickStep brings two of the top favorites to challenge Valverde. Dan Martin is a past winner, and he’s looking good after another Flèche Wallonne podium performance. Liège is a race that suits him very well, and the added climb will give him another chance to attack his rivals. And if Martin isn’t up for this, his teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a terrific second option, with a nice turn of speed.

Simon Gerrans‘s form is a bit of a question mark right now, but if he’s feeling strong he has a great chance to pick up a second career win here. He’s probably the fastest finisher among the top contenders for the victory.

Vincenzo Nibali finally took his first Monument win last year in Lombardy, and he could use the same combination of climbing and descending skills to make a run for the Liège win. A late attack seems practically guaranteed.

You could probably say the same about Tim Wellens. He almost always swings for the fences, and his attacking style has already earned him two Eneco Tour overall wins and the GP Montréal. He hasn’t been able to hit a home run in the Ardennes just yet, but he’s certainly got a shot. Lotto-Soudal also has Tony Gallopin and Jelle Vanendert.

Joaquím Rodríguez didn’t look to be at his best at La Flèche Wallonne but he’s almost always in the mix in this race and can’t be counted out. Neither can Rui Costa, who is made for this sort of profile. Enrico Gasparotto, Michal Kwiatkowski, Romain Bardet, Wout Poels, and Samuel Sánchez are others to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Dan Martin, Vincenzo Nibali
Other Top Contenders: Julian Alaphilippe, Joaquím Rodríguez, Simon Gerrans, Tim Wellens, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski, Enrico Gasparotto

Photo by Jean Housen (CC).

April 24, 2016