Category: Race Previews

La Flèche Wallonne 2016 Preview

“Ardennes Week” is in full swing. The peloton took on the Cauberg this past weekend, which can only mean it’s time for the Mur de Huy this Wednesday…

The Route

La Flèche Wallonne is surprisingly short, particularly this year, at just 196 kilometers.

There are officially 12 climbs on the menu, starting at kilometer 67 and running all the way to the finish. The first 11 will serve to wear away at the legs of the peloton, particularly the 1.3km, 8.1% Côte de Cherave, but this race is almost always decided on the final climb, the Mur de Huy.

A winding 1.3km at 9.3%, the Mur is a brutal challenge that punishes those who don’t time their jump perfectly. Experience matters on the steep slopes of the climb, which maxes out at over 25% for one small section. Things do flatten out near the finish line, meaning that the pure climbers will want to go a little earlier than those with a bit of a sprint.

The Contenders

Alejandro Valverde makes the start in pursuit of a record fourth career win at La Flèche Wallonne, and he looks like a strong candidate to pull it off. For one, the race and the final climb in particular suit him perfectly. These sorts of climbs have been Valverde’s bread and butter for years. He looks strong this season too. Meanwhile, some of the other names that come to mind for this race have yet to really show off any stellar form, making Valverde that much stronger a race favorite. Movistar also has Daniel Moreno, a former winner himself, as another card to play, and Carlos Betancur could be up there as well.

Joaquím Rodríguez probably should have won this race more than just the once, but he’s always a dangerous contender on this sort of finishing climb. It’s hard to say what kind of shape he’s in, but he’ll almost certainly be in the mix.

Form is a question mark after he pulled out of País Vasco, but rarely is Dan Martin not in shape to contest this event, one of his favorites. He has always done well here. Etixx-QuickStep also has Julian Alaphilippe, runner-up just last year. If anyone can challenge Movistar’s top-to-bottom strength, it’s the Irish-French duo leading the Belgian supersquad.

Speaking of former runners-up, don’t overlook Sergio Henao. He has been flying all season and should be able to fight with the very best on the Mur. Sky has a nice support squad to put him into position, and he has an underrated kick on this sort of finish.

Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge is always one to watch at La Flèche Wallonne—he’s never won, but he’s almost always in the mix. Lotto-Soudal has several options with Tim Wellens, Tony Gallopin, and Jelle Vanendert. Look to one of the three (probably Wellens) to try something long-range. Philippe Gilbert looked out of shape at Amstel and is probably beyond the point of being considered a favorite here, but he did win the race once upon a time and so can’t be counted out. BMC teammate Samuel Sánchez may be more of a threat.

Amstel Gold Race winner Enrico Gasparotto, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Michael Woods, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Warren Barguil, Wilco Kelderman, and Roman Kreuziger are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Sergio Henao, Joaquím Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Albasini, Daniel Moreno, Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Tim Wellens

Photo by Stacy Clinton (CC).

April 20, 2016
Amstel Gold Race 2016 Preview

“Ardennes Week” gets underway this Sunday in the Netherlands (not actually in the Belgian Ardennes) at the Amstel Gold Race. The peloton’s punchier stars will have a shot at classics glory on a profile chock-full of short but steep climbs.

The Route

258 kilometers in total, the Amstel Gold Race parcours involves 34 small climbs, but more often than not everything comes down to the final uphill challenge of the day: the Cauberg. The riders will actually climb it four times, but the last one comes just 1.8 kilometers from the finish line, and it’s likely to be the key moment in the race.

A little over a kilometer at a little under 6%, the Cauberg isn’t actually all that hard compared to other famous cycling climbs, but at the end of a long day it does take its toll. Attacks are guaranteed—the question is whether an aggressor can hang on all the way to the line. If not, we’ll likely see a reduced sprint.

The Contenders

Michal Kwiatkowski is the defending champion, and having shown terrific form in winning E3 Harelbeke, he looks like a strong contender again in 2016. It’s hard to say whether the Amstel Gold Race will go to a lone attacker or to a speedster in a small group, but Kwiatkowski is a threat in either scenario. Sergio Henao, Wout Poels, and Ben Swift are other strong options for Sky.

Orica-GreenEdge has a powerful one-two punch in Michael Matthews and Simon Gerrans. Gerrans might be the one trying to mix it up on the climb, leaving Matthews to battle it out in a sprint if the Cauberg is not as selective.

BMC’s Philippe Gilbert is a three-time Amstel Gold Race winner, and an obvious potential protagonist. His form is a question mark, especially given his recent finger injury, but Gilbert can never be counted out in this event. Samuel Sánchez and Ben Hermans are other strong options for the team.

Rui Costa nabbed fourth here last year and he could contend again this year. He’s deceptively speedy and has a great eye for opportunities to get away, so watch out for him late in the race. Diego Ulissi gives Lampre another card to play—he’s great in a reduced sprint after a tough day.

Julian Alaphilippe and Brabantse Pijl winner Petr Vakoc make for a strong Etixx duo. Daniel Moreno could get involved for Movistar, with Alejandro Valverde sitting this race out. Lotto-Soudal looks strong with Tony Gallopin, Jelle Vanendert, and Tim Wellens. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard could struggle to hold on over the climbs but he’s a threat in a sprint.

Fabio Felline, Bauke Mollema, Wilco Kelderman, Enrico Gasparotto, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Alexis Vuillermoz, Joaquím Rodríguez, and Tom Dumoulin are others with a shot.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski
Podium: Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Simon Gerrans, Rui Costa, Julian Alaphilippe, Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Petr Vakoc, Fabio Felline

Photo: Jakub Cerveny (CC).

April 17, 2016
Paris-Roubaix 2016 Preview

Paris-Roubaix kicks off Sunday in Compiègne (which is actually about an hour from Paris by car), and this year’s edition of the race should be as interesting as ever.

The Route

257.5 kilometers from start to finish, the Paris-Roubaix parcours is pancake-flat, with 27 officially rated cobbled sectors. Even the less difficult sections are perilous, but things really heat up after 160km at the Arenberg Trench, the first “five-star” sector in terms of difficulty, the tenth official section on the day. It’s a narrow, 2.4km stretch of “road” that runs through a dense forest. The surface is brutal, and even a specialist can have it all go wrong bouncing around on the cobbles. Unfortunately, things don’t get a whole lot easier after that.

After eight more difficult stretches of cobbles comes Mons-en-Pévele, 3km long, another particularly nastry stretch. The riders will have less than 50km to go when they arrive, so you can expect attacks to fly from the more aggressive types.

If the race isn’t broken up by then, it almost certainly will be by the time the riders are through with the Carrefour de l’Arbre, the last major obstacle on the profile before an easier final three cobbled sectors. The Carrefour is a make or break 2.1km section that is tough enough to blow any group to pieces.

15 kilometers later those who have survived the trek over some of the most uncomfortable roads in cycling will arrive at the Roubaix velodrome to finish the race. It’s often the sight of a small sprint, though solo wins and larger sprint are possibilities as well.

The Contenders

2015 champ John Degenkolb won’t be defending his title due to injuries suffered in a training crash, but the startlist is still full of classics firepower.

Fabian Cancellara is in the hunt for his fourth career Paris-Roubaix victory Sunday in his last ever appearance at the race. The form he showed last weekend at the Tour of Flanders makes that seem like a real possibility. Roubaix suits his huge engine perfectly. With a solid team around him, Cancellara can mark early attacks right up to the point where he launches his own. His biggest challenge will be shedding the many contenders who might be potentially speedier in a sprint finish.

Peter Sagan fits the bill. He’s got the “when will you win a Monument?” monkey off his back now, and he’s on blazing form. However, Paris-Roubaix doesn’t suit him nearly as well as De Ronde. One of the things that sets him apart as a rider is his ability to leave other one-day specialists behind on short climbs and then seal the deal with his masterful descending abilities. He won’t be able to put those skills on display here. It won’t be as easy for the punchy world champ to leave his rivals behind on this profile.

Sep Vanmarcke, on the other hand, will appreciate the flatter parcours, at least when it comes to facing off against Sagan. He has looked very strong the past few races and has improved dramatically as a sprinter since he took runner-up honors in Roubaix in 2013. That makes him dangerous.

Alexander Kristoff can go toe to toe against anyone on this startlist in a sprint. He looked sharp in Flanders, and although he’s never had as much success in Paris-Roubaix, he can’t be counted out. He’ll need everything to go his way in a race notorious for doling out punctures, mechanicals, and even fan collisions at the worst possible moments, but if he can hang with the lead group he’s a big threat in the velodrome.

Etixx-QuickStep’s Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Tom Boonen form a powerful lead trio that can boast several Roubaix wins and podium performances. Four-time winner Boonen has looked decent so far this year but Stybar and Terpstra are probably better bets. I particularly like Terpstra’s chances — I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small group enter the last 10km together and he has already shown that he has the power to make his rivals pay if they hesitate even for a moment when he launches a late solo move.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Jens Keukeleire, and Daniel Oss are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Alexander Kristoff, Tom Boonen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Luke Rowe

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 10, 2016
Vuelta al País Vasco 2016 Preview

The dust has hardly settled on the cobblestones of Flanders, but the WorldTour rolls on to Spain this week. The eyes of many cycling fans may be fixed on the Northern Classics, but the Tour of the Basque Country has drawn an impressive startlist of climbing specialists who are hoping to nab results on an always hilly parcours.

The Route

The 2016 edition of País Vasco covers familiar ground: every stage has climbs, and the event closes out with a time trial. It’s a formula that has made for exciting racing in the past.

The Tour of the Basque Country is lacking in terms of high-grade, long mountain climbs, but there is no shortage of tough rollers on pretty much every stage of the race. That includes the time trial, which involves a challenging climb of its own.

The Contenders

There are several top names on the startlist, but Alberto Contador earns himself the first mention. He’s won in País Vasco multiple times and it’s hard to best against him given the form he’s shown so far this year. He may be renowned for his climbing prowess but the course suits him better than most of his top rivals, as he’s among the best GC riders out there when it comes to racing against the clock.

Nairo Quintana would probably prefer more climbing and no time trial. He can’t be counted out on any course with a few climbs, but he’ll have tough time putting his Catalunya-winning uphill ability on these smaller ascents, and the TT could hurt his chances too. Ion Izagirre is a great alternative for Movistar.

Joaquím Rodríguez is the defending champ. The veteran surprised pretty much everyone with a brilliant time trial performance last year. If he can replicate it, watch out for a repeat win from Purito—but that may be a tall order for a rider who has been pretty quiet so far this year.

Fabio Aru packs plenty of punch and will likely be on the lookout for any opportunities to get clear. He’s a dangerous rider and worth watching on the climbs even if his TTing abilities leave something to be desired.

The same is true for new Sky acquisition Mikel Landa. Verstaile Sergio Henao, runner up in 2015, could be the team leader again this year.

Thibaut Pinot looks very strong after his Critérium International win. With a TT victory in that race under his belt, the Frenchman could be very dangerous if left within striking distance on the final day.

Simon Spilak, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Dan Martin, Adam and Simon Yates, Bauke Mollema, and Tony Gallopin are among the others who could be in the mix this week in Spain.

The Stagehunters

In stagehunting terms, it’s all about the puncheurs at the Tour of the Basque Country. Beyond those already mentioned as GC contenders, Michael Albasini and Tom-Jelte sSagter will be worth keeping an eye on today.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

Winner: Alberton Contador
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Sergio Henao
Other Top Contenders: Ilnur Zakarin, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquím Rodríguez, Adam Yates, Rui Costa, Ion Izagirre, Bauke Mollema

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 4, 2016
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2016 Preview

The tuneup races are in the bag. Belgium’s biggest day of cycling is here. Sunday’s Tour of Flanders is the 100th edition of the monumental classic, and with several big names gunning for an elusive first monument win against two riders hoping to pick up a fourth career Ronde victory, it should be an entertaining show.

The Route

255 kilometers from start to finish, the Ronde van Vlaanderen is defined by its many climbs, most of which are cobbled. Officially, there are 18 climbs on the route. Many of them are crested more than once. The peloton will take on the challenging Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg double twice on the day, with the second visit to the difficult pairing marking the final two climbs on the profile. After the riders summit the Paterberg for the second time, it’s less than 20 kilometers of flat to the finish.

The Contenders

Hunting for a record-breaking fourth Flanders win in his final year as a pro, Fabian Cancellara is certainly among the favorites. There are several fast finishers among the top contenders, so Cancellara’s chances probably come down to his ability to power away on the late climbs using his incredible engine. Don’t be surprised if he pulls it off, even at age 35.

Defending champion Alexander Kristoff has his work cut out for him this year. He may have won some races in the desert at the start of his 2016 campaign, but he just hasn’t quite looked as strong yet this year as he did in 2015. He won the race last year from a surprising two-man move, but he has not shown much of that escape ability since. It’s hard to say whether he can pull off that brilliant feat again, and given the tough profile, a big sprint (which would indeed favor him) seems unlikely.

Peter Sagan, fresh off a second career Gent-Wevelgem win, looks ready to finally nab a monument win. He’ll be looking to force a selection on the climbs, but he can rely on his kick from a small group after that, as he combines soloing ability and sprinting chops like few others in the peloton, and appears to be in shape at the moment.

Greg Van Avermaet also brings a terrific combination of top-end speed and solo prowess. He didn’t race at E3, where he would have been among the top favorites, but his overall victory at Tirreno-Adriatico proved his strong form. With Daniel Oss as a great second, BMC should expect big things Sunday.

Sep Vanmarcke was having a quiet season until Gent-Wevelgem last week. Vanmarcke missed an early split but was able to work his way back into the mix, and then put in an attack that was reeled in only to make the final selection on the Kemmelberg not long after. The form looks to be there. And don’t underestimate him in a fast finish either—he’s steadily improved as a sprinter over the past few years.

Tom Boonen may be in the running for a record-breaking fourth career Flanders win of his own, but Etixx-QuickStep will likely look to Zdenek Stybar and Niki Terpstra as the featured riders this weekend. They’ve both shown ability on this terrain and the form looks good at the moment.

Sky has options too, with Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Luke Rowe, and Ian Stannard all potential protagonists. Don’t overlook the Lotto-Soudal stable either. Youngster Tiesj Benoot and veteran Jurgen Roelandts are both riders to watch. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Filippo Pozzato, Heinrich Haussler, and Matti Breschel are others worth watching in Flanders.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Tiesj Benoot, Michal Kwiatkowski, Alexander Kristoff, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Photo by Dane Cash.

April 3, 2016
Gent-Wevelgem 2016 Preview

You can check out my preview of Gent-Wevelgem (including the women’s race!) over at VeloNews… Though if you’re just looking for a men’s race Top 10, here’s how I see it playing out.

VeloHuman’s Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: André Greipel, Arnaud Démare
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Fernando Gaviria, Jens Debusschere, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Matteo Trentin, Jens Debusschere, Sep Vanmarcke

Photo: Dane Cash.

March 26, 2016