Category: Race Previews

Il Lombardia 2015 Preview

Il Lombardia, the final race of the 2015 WorldTour, kicks of Sunday in Bergamo, Italy. 245 kilometers of up and down in Italy’s Lombardy region, Il Lombardia (formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia) is the last of the five Monument Classics on the cycling calendar. The organizers have tinkered with the profile over the course of the last few years, but a unique Northern Italian character, incredible lakeside scenery, and thrilling finishes are constant features in Il Lombardia, making it a great event to close out the season in style.

Be sure to check out the latest Recon Ride powered by VeloNews, with special insight from cycling expert and Lombardy local Gregor Brown, for more on what makes Il Lombardia stand out as a legendary bike race.

The Route

Il Lombardia gets progressively harder as the day goes on. After leaving Bergamo, the peloton will enjoy nearly 50km of flat before the road angles upward for the Colle Gallo, 7.4km at 6%. After a descent it’s another mostly flat stretch for nearly 50km once again before the long, low-gradient Colle Brianza. Another downhill leads to another flat stretch before things get a bit lumpier in the run-up to a very difficult pairing of climbs: the Madonna del Ghisallo and the Colma di Sormano.

The challenging profile of Il Lombardia makes it an excellent opportunity for the climbing specialists to take a big one-day win.

Ghisallo is an irregular climb whose average gradient doesn’t really tell the whole story. All told it’s 8.6km at an average grade of 6.2%, but it’s really a three-part climb, starting out with about 3.5km at around 9%, flattening out (even running downhill for a bit) for 4km or so, and then kicking up again at nearly 10% for the rest of the way to the top. Unfortunately for the riders, there won’t be much of a chance to rest after the climb is crested—a fast descent leads into the foot of the brutal Colma di Sormano (with a particularly challenging stretch known as the Muro di Sormano).

The climb opens with a little over 5km at 6.6%. Then things suddenly get extremely difficult. The final 1.9km have an average gradient of 15.8%, with one stretch at over 25%, which will undoubtedly see many riders dropped off the back. At least the view is nice.

As hard as the Ghisallo-Sormano combo is, the race is far from over after the pack crests the latter, as there are still about 50 kilometers left to race. From the top of the Sormano it’s a tricky descent into a flat section of about 15km, where we can expect things to get very cagey as riders jockey for position for the finale.

With a little over 21km to go the riders will hit the foot of the Civiglio, 4.2km at a vicious 9.7%. It’s consistently steep the whole way up. Then comes a very steep descent that runs into the foot of the final climb of the race, the San Fermo della Battaglia, 2.7km at 7.2%. Expect plenty of action here if the race isn’t blown to pieces already. Once the riders go over the summit, it’s a little over 3km downhill and then just 1.5km of flat to the finish line in Como.

The Contenders

This year’s route strongly favors the explosive climbing stars. A fast finish will be useful in case a small group comes to the line together, but the finale will make it very hard for riders to sit in and hold out for a big sprint. The pack will be thinned out after so much climbing, and a pair of steep launching pads in the last 20km will provide the aggressive riders with plenty of space to go on the move. Some technical descents will further favor the attackers. Those descents could get even more technical with a chance of some rain on Sunday—rain is as much a classic feature of Il Lombardia as the scenery along Lake Como, and it figures to at least play a part this year.

Alejandro Valverde’s combination of elite climbing legs, strong descending skills, Classics grit, and an excellent sprint make him an obvious entrant in the favorites conversation. Although he’s never won the race, he has been the runner-up for two years in a row now. 5th in the World Championship Road Race, he’s still in-shape even at the end of a very long season, and this is a race he’s been trying to win for a little while now. Giovanni Visconti makes for an strong second. For me, the big question mark next to Valverde’s name is whether he will be aggressive enough to take the victory—I don’t think he can take his usual approach (staying in the wheels for a reduced sprint) into this race and expect to win, with a finale so well-tailored to a do-or-die attack.

One rider who probably won’t hesitate to launch an all-or-nothing strike is Vincenzo Nibali. It’s been a down year for Nibali, and he’s never managed to take the big one-day victory he has long sought (other than Plouay back in 2006), but he’s in great form right now and this course suits him perfectly. Nibali is not a good sprinter, meaning that he’ll need to drop everyone and win this thing solo, but the gradients on the final climbs and the tricky descents that follow should give him plenty of chances to do that. Fabio Aru, Diego Rosa, and Mikel Landa are other strong options for a stacked Astana squad.

Dan Martin won Il Lombardia in 2014, but he’s only just returned to racing after a shoulder injury knocked him out of the Vuelta, which could hurt his chances of repeating. Still, this course suits him as well as ever (of his six career participations, he’s finished in the Top 10 four times in this race) and an encouraging showing in Milano-Torino (he was 14th) suggests that he’s already back in shape to contend. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a great alternative for Cannondale-Garmin if Dan Martin isn’t at 100%.

Speaking of past winners, Joaquím Rodríguez won Il Lombardia in 2012 and 2013, but he’s a late scratch this year after hurting his knee in training. Daniel Moreno will attempt to take up the flag for Katusha, and he’s not a rider to be underestimated.

Philippe Gilbert is certainly not the rider he was back when he took the win here in 2010, but he’s looked pretty strong this year and appears to be in decent late-season form. The finale suits him well, if he can make it all the way over the tough climbs. Samuel Sánchez will be a fine second. Greg Van Avermaet was originally going to ride this race as well, but he withdrew from the startlist upon returning from Richmond a bit jet-lagged.

Rui Costa was 3rd in 2014 and I expect him to contend for the win this year. He tends to attract less attention than he maybe should given his excellent array of abilities, and I think that could come in particularly handy on this profile. I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton let him jump clear on one of the final two climbs only to see him hold out all the way to the line. Diego Ulissi is a nice backup option for Lampre-Merida.

Tim Wellens has had his sights set on improving last season’s 4th place all year long. This profile will really put him to the test, but like Costa and Nibali, he’s not afraid to go all-in on an attack, and he often gets a bit more breathing room than maybe he should (as was the case when his two-man move in the GP Montréal managed to go the distance). Tony Gallopin will also be on the limit on this course but will be a huge threat if he holds out to the finish.

AG2R sends a powerhouse team to Il Lombardia, with Domenico Pozzovivo, Romain Bardet, and Alexis Vuillermoz all capable of being in the mix. The French outfit isn’t well-known for its one-day prowess but Pozzovivo and Bardet in particular have had a few nice showings in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and this route should be even better for them. On the other side of the French team coin is FDJ, a squad sending only one strong contender this race in Thibaut Pinot, a rider who doesn’t have anything to speak of in the realm one-day results—but who is in good shape right now.

Rafal Majka was 3rd here back in 2013 and looks to be strong right now. Michal Kwiatkowski is also showing great end-of-year form for Etixx-QuickStep, and he hasn’t done much historically in this race, the profile should suit him. Orica-GreenEdge sends a team full of options: Adam and Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, and Michael Albasini will all have a chance here. Expect OGE to try to stick a rider in every legitimate move. Trek has Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fränk Schleck. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman are worth watching. Former three-time winner Damiano Cunego, Sergio Henao, Wout Poels, Davide Rebellin, Rodolfo Torres, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are other riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Tim Wellens, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Daniel Moreno

As the last WorldTour race of the season, Il Lombardia is also the last event that VeloHuman will preview in 2015. I hope you’ve enjoyed the year as much as I have! Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay up-to-date with the cycling world through the cold, dark offseason. The Tour Down Under will be here before you know it!

October 3, 2015
World Championships 2015: Road Race Preview

The Richmond World Championships week concludes with the elite men’s road race, which will decide who earns the right to rainbow stripes for the next 12 months. It’s been a long stretch of post-Tour of tune-up races, but it’s time for the international peloton to put it on the line in the fight for cycling’s biggest one-day prize.

The Route

The men’s elite road race runs 261.4 kilometers in total. Starting just outside town at the University of Richmond, the peloton will roll into a road circuit of 16.2km, completing a slightly reduced lap on the way to the first passing of the line then, and then riding 15 more to the race finish.

The circuit starts out fast, with mostly flat or downhill roads, but things get both lumpy and technical in the final few kilometers. There are three climbs to speak of that will likely spur plenty of action late in the race, with plenty of twists and turns thrown in along the way to give the attackers a hand in escape attempts. First up is the cobbled Libby Hill climb, 200 meters at about 8%. Then comes a short flat stretch and a fast descent into the foot of the very steep 23rd street climb, also on cobblestones, 100 meters at over 10%. After one last downhill run comes the Governor’s Street climb, 300 meters at about 7%. The climb evens out about 700 meters from the finish, though the rest of the way angles just slightly upward.

The Contenders

There is a wide variety of opinions on how this race will play out (a topic covered at length in the Recon Ride podcast p/b VeloNews, which is absolutely worth checking out). A glance at the cumulative vertical meters wouldn’t suggest that this profile is particularly difficult, but the climbs come in fast succession, the first two are cobbled, and things are technical enough that riders will be on edge all day. Throw in a high chance of a rain and what appears to be a less challenging course could get very messy.

It’s hard to say whether the race will come down to a sprint or to a late escape. The severity of the weather could make the difference. In any case, the flatter finish will make sprinting legs a major asset for the rainbow jersey hopefuls. There are several riders in Richmond who combine impressive top-end speed with respectable climbing legs and classics-style grit, and it is those riders who stand out as the top favorites for what has to be described as a wide open worlds road race.

Alexander Kristoff is certainly among the top names in the race. If Kristoff can bring the form he showed in the Tour of Flanders into this race, he’ll be deadly: he didn’t wait around for large group sprint in that race, instead attacking late on with Niki Terpstra and holding out for the win. If he can win on the more challenging parcours of De Ronde, he should be able to handle Richmond if the form is there, latching onto a small group if need be. Recent showings in the Arctic Race of Norway, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France, and the GP Québec suggest that he’s in great shape. His Norwegian squad brings only six riders, but there are enough sprinters in the race to probably keep things under control, so I don’t really see the six-man squad at much of a disadvantage. Speaking of Norwegian teammates, Edvald Boasson Hagen will be an excellent second card to play for the squad, on blazing form right now and on a course that suits hits talents.

John Degenkolb beat Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo this year, and worked his own late-escape-magic to take the victory in Paris-Roubaix. Again, if the form is there, Degenkolb should thrive, though he hasn’t had quite a successful Worlds buildup as Kristoff. He also hasn’t had quite as much success on cobbled climbs over the years, so it’s hard to say how he’ll feel about Libby Hill. In any case, he’s a huge threat to win if he’s in shape, and a powerhouse German squad is ready to set him up for the victory. André Greipel is on the squad as well, and will be an obvious favorite if he can survive the tough day.

Peter Sagan has just the perfect skillset for this course: he’s an excellent bike handler, he loves the short climbs, and he can be in the mix with the best in a sprint. I will be very surprised if he’s not on the podium at the end of the day. A moto crash at the Vuelta interrupted his buildup campaign but he should still be in good shape to fight for the win. The biggest challenge will be the distance, as his Grand Tour stage-winning sprinting legs have often lost a bit of luster at the end of long Classics.

Michael Matthews is the other sprinting talent who stands out as a top favorite. On the one hand, I like his climbing legs and love his form right now after an impressive showing in Québec. I also think Australia will ride well in support of him. On the other hand, Matthews’s talents have not yet translated into all that much one-day success compared to his top rivals here, and a long and potentially hectic Worlds course will be a tough place for him to make the leap to the next level. Still, he’s a big threat, and his top-end speed may be underrated by some. Teammate Simon Gerrans is an unknown for Australia: the course suits him, but form is a total question mark after several crashes this season. Obviously keep an eye on the two-time Monument winner.

The Belgian squad starts the two riders I see as most likely to win the race with a late solo move, as well as a few other contenders. Greg Van Avermaet is my top pick on the team. This is a good route for him, with steep cobbled sections to escape the pack and twists and turns to stay clear. If he comes to the line in a small group, Van Avermaet packs a strong sprint. I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard after 261.4km. Philippe Gilbert could also get involved. The climbs might not be as long as he’d prefer but he’s looked good this year and his strong team should be able to set him up nicely for an attack. Sep Vanmarcke and Tom Boonen are other good options.

Speaking of Classics riders, Zdenek Stybar should thrive here—he’s in shape, he loves cobbled climbs, and he’s not being talked about as much as the fast finishers. The former cyclocross world champion will shine if the rain makes things messy.

France has Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni for a potential sprint, but I like the chances of both Julian Alaphilippe and Tony Gallopin even better. Gallopin thrives in selective finishes, and Alaphilippe was active in the Canadian GPs.

Defending world champion Michal Kwiatkowski will have his work cut out for him trying to hold onto the rainbow jersey, but he’s an excellent bike handler and descender who will love the technical finale. He also showed good form in the Canadian GPs even if the results didn’t show much. It would be a mistake to underestimate him. Also likely to be overlooked a bit given the course, 2013 world champ Rui Costa could be involved as well after a strong showing in Montréal.

Niki Terpstra is my top outsider pick for the Worlds Road Race. He looked very strong in the Vuelta, he’s made great strides climbing on the cobbles, and he’s even got speed for a sprint. The Dutch team is strong and it’s been flying under the radar. Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom are other riders to watch.

Spain may be nominally riding for Alejandro Valverde, and he certainly has a chance with the late climbs, but I’m eying Juan José Lobato as well. His season quieted down after a great start but he looked good in the Tour of Britain and is very fast when in form.

Matti Breschel always seems to show up for Worlds and this course suits him. Italy does not have a team that is particularly suited to the course, but with a huge collection of talents on the squad maybe something will work out. I especially like Matteo Trentin, but there is plenty of firepower on the Italian team. Taylor Phinney will fly the flag for the home nation. This course suits him very well, but it’s impossible to say how his form will hold up over the course of 261.4km in his first big one-day race back from injury. Still, his time trial performance hinted that he’s in good shape. Tyler Farrar is the sprint option for Team U.S.A. Ben Swift, Ramunas Navardauskas, Michael Albasini, and Sam Bennett are on the very long list of outsiders who could surprise the big favorites in Richmond.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Juan José Lobato, Julian Alaphilippe.

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

September 26, 2015
World Championships 2015: Individual Time Trial Preview

With the World Championships well underway, the elite men’s individual time trial title is up for grabs in Richmond. Bradley Wiggins is not around to defend his rainbow jersey, but there are plenty of chrono specialists looking to succeed him as the world champ.

The Route

The lion’s share of the 53km men’s ITT course sits outside the city of Richmond. Only in the final few 10km or so do the roads start to get particularly urban. Before that, it’s mostly rolling countryside.

The official profile may appear to have plenty of ups and downs, but this is a pretty flat course.

The riders will set out from the King’s Dominion amusement park and work their way south into town, where the route gets slightly (but not a lot) more technical in the final run-in to the finish.

While the profile highlights every single small riser and short downhill stretch, this is not a particularly hilly time trial, and we can expect the TT heavyweights to get up to pretty high speeds.

The Favorites

Tony Martin, in the hunt for his fourth world title, is the top favorite to take the victory. The long, mostly flat course suits him very well, and without Bradley Wiggins around, no one can match Martin in terms of peak ability. It’s been an odd year for Martin, who hasn’t built up as dominant a record in the TTs as he did in 2013 or 2014, but he’s the most accomplished rider on the startlist and in his prime, so it’s hard to bet against him.

Tom Dumoulin ran 3rd in 2014 and has consistently been among cycling’s best against the clock, but it’s hard to know just how strong he’ll be after an exhausting Vuelta. Dumoulin fought hard for a GC position all the way to the final mountain stage, and that takes its toll. Still, he’s had a bit of time to recover and could be in the mix.

Rohan Dennis may be the best-positioned to challenge Martin for the win. It won’t be easy, but Dennis has had an excellent season and proved his form leading BMC Racing to a TTT title on Sunday.

It would be a huge surprise if the world title went to any rider outside that trio. Adriano Malori is among the best of the rest—he’s had a comparatively quiet season at the highest level of racing but has won several Continental Tour TTs, including one very recently over Tony Martin at the Tour de Poitou Charentes.

Pre-injury Taylor Phinney probably expected to be challenging for the world title by 2015, but things haven’t quite gone as planned over the past two seasons. Still, Phinney looks very strong right now and is riding in from of home fans. Given what he proved to be capable of in time trials early on in his career, he can’t be counted out.

Vasil Kiryienka was very impressive in the Giro’s long time trial and always does well at Worlds. Alex Dowsett can run hot and cold but (along with Malori) he had enough form to help Movistar to a podium spot in the TTT Sunday. Matthias Brändle, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta, Luke Durbridge, Rasmus Quaade, Wilco Kelderman, Jonathan Castroviejo, Rigoberto Urán, and Stefan Küng are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis
Other Top Favorites: Adriano Malori, Taylor Phinney, Vasil Kiryienka, Matthias Brändle, Rasmus Quaade, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

September 22, 2015
World Championships 2015: Team Time Trial Preview

The 2015 World Championships get underway with the team time trial, and the showdown for the men’s world title this year should be a good one. The TTT is often a predictable discipline, but there is not one team that can claim to be the sole heavy favorite in Richmond.

The Route

The 38.8km course starts in Richmond’s rural suburbs in Henrico County, heading south into town along gently rolling roads. The teams will pass through Richmond but then continue south and reenter Henrico County, before making an about face on open country roads and heading back downtown for the finish.

None of the climbs along the Richmond team time trial route are particularly long or steep.

Things will get a bit technical as the riders make their way along more urban roads towards the line, but all told it’s a pretty straightforward TTT without any serious challenges.

The Contenders

It’s rare for there to be multiple candidates with a decent chance of winning a team time trial, but three teams stand out as potential contenders for the TTT title this year.

BMC Racing comes in as the defending champion. Tejay van Garderen and Peter Velits are missing from that 2014 squad, but the riders taking their places are no slouch. Specialists Taylor Phinney and Stefan Küng should do just fine. BMC has done an excellent job of defending the title throughout the season and should be in the mix again at worlds.

Etixx-QuickStep is the squad most likely to challenge BMC. Always strong in the discipline, EQS could only manage 3rd place in 2014. Replicating that performance shouldn’t be too hard given all the firepower they have (especially with Rigoberto Urán looking very sharp right now), but they want to reclaim the world title. I think the Belgian team has a very good chance, but I might give BMC a very slight edge: QuickStep’s TTT performances have not been quite up to the team’s typically elite standard all year long.

The team time trial is a huge target for Orica-GreenEdge, a squad with several decent chrono riders who always manage to work together to churn out an impressive group effort. Svein Tuft doesn’t have quite the same power that he used to have, however, and while I see GreenEdge as the third contender here, it’s a clear third behind a neck-and-neck BMC and EQS.

Of the rest of the teams vying for the championship title in Richmond, Movistar looks to be the most likely to surprise the three top favorites. The TTT is about a lot more than just putting as many elite ITT specialists into one time, which is why an always well-oiled OGE machine can punch above the weight its collective parts, but there is something to be said for having several very powerful engines all working towards the same goal. Led by Adriano Malori, Alex Dowsett, and Jonathan Castroviejo, Movistar has just that. A podium performance could be within the reach of the Spanish squad.

I see Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana, LottoNL-Jumbo, and Sky as the other potential outsiders, though it would be a huge surprise if any of them could come away with the overall win.

Usually, VH names a full Top 10 of contenders in previews for stage races and one-day events, but since naming 10 teams would cover more than a third of the Worlds TTT field, naming a Top 5 seems like a more fitting approach.

VeloHuman Top 5 Race Favorites

Winner: BMC Racing
Podium: Etixx-QuickStep, Orica-GreenEdge
Other Top Contenders: Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo

VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.

Photo by Bill Dickinson (CC).

September 19, 2015
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal 2015 Preview

After Rigoberto Urán delivered a surprise win in Québec, the racing moves on the Montréal. A slightly hillier course could favor the attackers even more, which will make predicting an already unpredictable race quite a challenge!

The Route

The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal takes on 17 laps of a 12.1km circuit for a total distance of 205.7 kilometers. The race starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started.

There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most difficult climb comes almost immediately: the Côte Camillien-Houde, 1.8 kilometers at an 8% average gradient. From the top, there is a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average. There is a particularly steep 200m section of about 11% along the way. After another descent, things even out for a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head right back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the finish. That final run-in is a 560m, 4% climb.

The Contenders

While the startlists are the same and many of the top contenders are the same, the Montréal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Québec. “The two are different,” Rui Costa told VeloHuman from Québec. “Montreal is a race that I think is harder, and more open.”

The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely see a smaller group coming into the final few laps than the peloton in Montréal. An attack on the 8% gradients has a decent chance of holding out over the final few up and down kilometers. The finish in Montreal, however, is a fair bit easier, which means that a select group of escapees could find themselves battling it out in a sprint. Orica-GreenEdge kept the race on lockdown last year, allowing a sizable bunch to finish together, but that was rather unusual for this race, and I’d expect a more select group to battle for the win this time around. Whatever the scenario, explosiveness and excellent climbing legs are important.

It was not a real shocker to see an Etix-QuickStep rider take the win in Québec, given all the firepower they have, though Rigoberto Urán seemed like maybe the fourth best option on his team! In any case, EQS will have another excellent opportunity to nab the win in Montréal. Julian Alaphilippe looked strong in an escape attempt that was ultimately reeled in in Québec, and Michal Kwiatkowski looked particularly impressive chasing down Greg Van Avermaet. Despite Urán’s victory, I still see Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski as the top EQS riders for Montréal, as Urán won’t be taking anyone by surprise this time; in fact, I’d be just as surprised if he won Montréal now that he’s no longer under the radar. Still, watch out for the Colombian: he’s got all the right skills for these races, and although he’s basically taken a two-year hiatus from contending in the Classics, there was a time when he was a top rider for the Ardennes and in Lombardy—and apparently still has those skills hiding under the hood.

Rui Costa has won in Montréal in the past and was runner-up in 2014. Without Simon Gerrans around, I like his chances this year. He looks to be in good form. The biggest question is team leadership. Costa made it into the select group that appeared to have their shot at fighting for the Québec win before hesitation allowed the larger pack to catch back up, but then Lampre-Merida backed Diego Ulissi in the final sprint. The Italian could be a strong contender in Montréal as well. Both riders are great climbers with explosive side, and my first instinct is to see Costa as the man for Montréal given his past performances, but Lampre might not see it that way, which makes it harder to view Costa as an out-and-out favorite.

For most of the day in Québec, BMC looked to be the strongest team in the race, contributing to the chase of the early break and then involving themselves in one attack after another. It didn’t work out in the end, but it showed the team’s strength and that bodes well for Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert in Montréal. The selective profile will weed out some of the purer sprinters, but the less difficult finish will provide an excellent opportunity for both riders, who can rely on their impressive uphill speed, with a shot in a reduced sprint. I’m not sure either one is at full strength just yet with Worlds as such a major goal, but they’ll be close to their best. I like Van Avermaet a bit more than Gilbert, as he’s been coming to the GP Montréal for so many years running now, but both are contenders.

Tony Gallopin, 3rd last year, showed good form with an 8th place in Québec. The way I see it, Montréal suits him better. He’s a excellent tactician who knows how to make an attack, and he has the fast finish to win out of a small group. He appears to be in terrific form as well. He was in the small group that made it up the Côte de la Montagne at the head of the race in Québec, and still managed to come in 8th in the final sprint after that group was swept up (Van Avermaet, also in that small group initially, could only manage 10th despite being near the front in the finale). In a wide-open race, I like Gallopin’s chances to turn last year’s third-place result into a win. If he doesn’t, Tim Wellens, Jurgen Roelandts, and Tiesj Benoot are other options for a loaded Lotto-Soudal.

Michael Matthews was the runner-up in Québec and he’ll have a shot in Montréal, but I see the parcours as being just a bit too difficult to view him near the top of the favorites (oddsmakers disagree with me on this one). In any case, if Matthews is not able to handle the climbs, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for OGE, who have Adam Yates (on blazing form at the moment), Simon Yates, and Michael Albasini too.

Tom-Jelte Slagter is in the best form he’s been in all season. He was 4th in Québec, and although he’s had better results there in the past, I think Montréal suits him well too. He can handle tough climbs without too much trouble. Slagter isn’t going to Worlds, having suddenly found his form after the Dutch team selection, and I therefore expect he’ll be giving it everything he has to pull something off in Montréal. Ramunas Navardauskas and Ryder Hesjedal are other options for Cannondale-Garmin.

Lars Petter Nordhaug won here in 2012 and count be counted out. Trek’s Bauke Mollema and Fabio Felline make for a great 1-2 punch. The same is true for Giant-Alpecin’s Simon Geschke and Warren Barguil. Europcar has Tommy Voeckler, while FDJ can rely on Arthur Vichot. AG2R is the French squad with the widest array of options: Romain Bardet, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Jan Bakelants are all potential contenders. I was very impressed with LottoNL-Jumbo in Québec, and see Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman liking this parcours even more—Sep Vanmarcke is another option for the men in yellow.

Alexander Kristoff was surprisingly in the mix in Québec but it’s hard to see him holding on over the more challenging GP Montréal parcours. Hesitation at the head of the race late on in Québec helped his chances but I doubt he’ll get that kind of gift again, though obviously he’ll be a favorite if he’s there for a sprint.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Tony Gallopin
Podium: Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Matthews, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema

VeloHuman will be at the race so be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis!

September 12, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Alcalá de Henares › Madrid – 98.8km

On the heels of a thrilling Stage 20 that turned the Vuelta upside-down comes the final stage, very likely to end in a straightforward sprint.

Less than a hundred kilometers long and without any real climbs, the final stage of the Vuelta won’t be particularly hard. The main challenge will be the urban roads—after about 40km riding through the suburbs, the peloton will ride into a city circuit for 10 5.8km laps, and there are plenty of twists and turns in store.

Given the profile, a sprint is the likeliest scenario. A few of the quick men have stayed on in the race through the mountains for this opportunity, and they’re likely to put their teams on the front to keep things under control.

John Degenkolb has endured a long and challenging Vuelta without a stage win, but he should be the clear top dog among the sprinters left in the race. In terms of top speed, he’s the proven name here. However, Degenkolb has not been nearly as dominant as expected against a diminished field here, and while I still see him as the favorite, others will have their shot.

Danny Van Poppel is probably the strongest potential challenger to Degenkolb. Trek has had a great Vuelta and the team is highly motivated in the battle for stage wins. While Degenkolb has the edge over most riders here on pure speed, Van Poppel actually comes pretty close, and if he can win the battle for position he’s got a shot at a second Vuelta stage win.

Kristian Sbaragli won a messy Stage 10 to show off his sprinting chops and should be in the mix again on Stage 21. It’s likely to be a pretty hectic finale with all the cornering to be done, and that could help Sbaragli take another win over riders who might be faster in a test of pure speed.

José Joaquín Rojas, Max Richeze, Daniele Bennati, Tosh Van Der Sande, Tom Van Asbroeck, and Jean-Pierre Drucker are the outsiders with a shot in the likely sprint finish.

Of course, a late attack by the likes of Adam Hansen or Sylvain Chavanel can’t be ruled out: it’s been a long Vuelta and it’s possible someone could catch the sprinters’ teams off guard on a circuit that is technical enough to make things interesting.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Danny Van Poppel | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

The final stage of the Vuelta marks the 63rd and final Grand Tour stage preview from VeloHuman this season. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed all the action! Be sure to keep an eye out for the next few episodes of the Recon Ride podcast and for pre-race thoughts on the last few events of the season, and follow @VeloHuman for more analysis.

September 12, 2015