Category: Race Previews

Stage 18: Requena › Gandía – 200.6km

Stage 18 is reminiscent of Stage 16, with a profile that involves a lot of descending and a flat finish. The parcours should be forgiving enough to allow the sprinters a shot at the stage win, which would make the outcome reminiscent of Stage 16 as well.

Jempy Drucker was quiet in the first few stages of the Vuelta, but it’s hard to overlook him now that he’s proven his form. He took advantage of Etixx’s poorly timed leadout to win Stage 16, but it wasn’t all that close, leading me to believe that he should be capable of another victory even without help from his opponents.

That said, Gianni Meersman has generally looked strong in this race and his squad should be capable of executing a leadout better than they did Monday. A well-shepherded Meersman is capable of beating anyone here.

Jonas van Genechten hasn’t put his strength on display again in this Vuelta since taking his stage win, but he’s certainly a threat. Nikias Arndt is too, though he’s been far less impressive than I expected at the start of the race. Kristian Sbaragli, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Fabio Felline are others to keep an eye on for a potential sprint.

Given the length of the stage and its position on the overall Vuelta itinerary (with just three stages left), it is entirely possible that the sprinters’ teams drop the ball here. Should that happen, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Jan Bakelants, and Niki Terpstra are names to remember.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Jempy Drucker | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Nikias Arndt

Stage 17: Castellón › Llucena – 177.5km

The Vuelta peloton gets a rude welcome in its return from a rest day. Wednesday’s stage is one for the climbers, with two early Cat. 2s, a Cat. 3 whose official length of 11.2km ignores an uphill lead-in of several kilometers, and a very steep Cat. 1 finale.

The ramp to the finish line, though only 3.8km, has a vicious average grade of 12.5%. Expect some GC action—if anyone near the top of the leaderboard senses weakness from his rivals, a climb like this presents a great opportunity to nab time, as teammates are not particularly useful at these gradients.

As for the stage battle, I like the breakaway’s chances. The parcours will make this stage tough to control, and I expect the GC favorites to be more concerned with each other than anyone up the road. As such, anyone who can go from afar has to be considered a big threat here.

Robert Gesink has proven to be quite strong in this race, and if he gets into a breakaway here he’ll be tough to beat. Of the riders likely to be getting into the breaks in this Vuelta, he’s shown the best combination of ability and current form, and his grand tour skillset makes him deadly on a brutal finishing climb like this.

Gianluca Brambilla could also challenge for a stage win. He rode masterfully in Stage 15 to show off the excellent shape he’s in, and this finish suits him well.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active getting into moves so far, and he should like the finishing climb. He’s always been adept at putting the hammer down for a late solo move and that should suit him well on a short final climb.

Ben Hermans, Thomas De Gendt, Mathias Frank, Kenny Elissonde, Dries Devenyns, Egor Silin, Louis Meintjes, Pierre Latour, and the now-no-longer-in-GC-contention Leopold König are others to keep an eye on here.

If it’s the GC contenders battling for the stage, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious candidates for success (and I like Froome just a bit better), but I see some of the riders a bit further down the leaderboard as the likeliest stage winners. As Froome and Quintana may be busy watching each other on the final climb, either Esteban Chaves or Simon Yates could sneak away. Alberto Contador and Samuel Sánchez can’t be overlooked either.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Robert Gesink | 2. Gianluca Brambilla | 3. Esteban Chaves

Stage 16: Alcañiz › Peñíscola – 156.4km

After a zany mountain stage Sunday, the GC contenders should get a chance to take it easy in Stage 16. After 90km mostly uphill kilometers punctuated by a single Cat. 3, the road descends toward the Mediterranean coast and a flat final 15km. The topography will have the sprinters excited to finally be in the spotlight again after several straight days of hills and mountains.

Barring a serious dropping of the ball (though that is entirely possible), the stage battle will come down to a bunch kick. Gianni Meersman has been the most successful sprinter so far in the Vuelta, and he’ll absolutely be worth watching in the finale given the form he’s shown so far in Spain. But there are a few other riders I like to challenge him given the easy parcours.

Nikias Arndt doesn’t have Meersman’s strong climbing legs, but he probably won’t need them here. This should be a day for the pure speedsters, and Arndt has a good track record in bona fide sprints against some notable riders—in peak form, he’s probably the fastest rider here. He’s had a pretty disappointing run in the Vuelta so far but this is a good opportunity to get on track.

Kristian Sbaragli should be in the mix as well. It’s been a quieter year than was expected for Sbaragli, but in this field he’s got to be among the top favorites regardless.

Jonas Van Genecthen is a bit of a late bloomer as quick men go, claiming a maiden grand tour sprint win less than a month before turning 30, but he deserves to be in the conversation after his Stage 7 win. Magnus Cort Nielsen, Daniele Bennati, Jens Keukeleire, Fabio Felline, Jempy Drucker, and Michael Schwarzmann are others to watch.

Should the sprint teams let this one get away from them, look out for the likes of Luis León Sánchez, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Thomas De Gendt to try a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Nikias Arndt | 2. Gianni Meersman | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

Stage 15: Sabiñánigo › Sallent de Gállego – 118.5km

Sunday’s stage will bring a second straight day of GC action, though the parcours is markedly different. Stage 15 is quite short at only 118.5km, and the climbs aren’t as challenging as those the bunch faced Saturday.

However, the pace will be very high given the length of the stage, and that can sometimes lead to unpredictable results. Plus, the final climb is far more challenging than the metrics (14.5km at 4.6%) suggest. For one, the ascending begins long before the official start of the climb. In fact, the final 25km or so are mostly uphill, with an average grade of over 3%. That’s a long way to be going up. On top of that, the officially rated section of the climb is not completely steady all the way up, with a few steeper sections that could launch attacks.

It’s proven quite a challenge predicting whether mountain stages at the Vuelta thus far would come down to the breakaway or the GC men, and Stage 15 is another tough one to call. Though the race will be hard to control on this profile, and though the peloton has allowed serious breakaways ride to two straight stage victories, the short distance will see a high tempo that could make a successful break hard to pull off. As such, I think the top GC men deserve favorite status, if only slightly.

As usual, I see Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana as the likeliest red jersey contenders. Given what we’ve seen all week, I’ll give Froome the slight edge on this parcours, though it’s very close.

Don’t count out the Orica duo of Esteban Chaves and Simon Yates for the win, however. The team showed off its knack for racing strategy in Stage 14, which leads me to believe in the potential for Orica to get creative having two rider so close on GC. Either one could attack to set up a later move by his teammate, making them a dangerous pair.

Samuel Sánchez and Alberto Contador are worth watching too, as both have ridden aggressively (if not entirely successfully) on the mountain stages of this Vuelta. Leopold König may have a better shot than either home favorite—he may not have quite the press in the first week, but he’s proven capable of holding his own with the heavyweights in this race.

As for potential breakaway candidates, a number of riders have established themselves as the go-to potential protagonists in a stage like this: Pello Bilbao, Mathias Frank, Ben Hermans, Gianluca Brambilla, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Latour, Luis León Sánchez, Robert Gesink, and Kenny Elissonde are all worthy of attention as long-distance threats.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Esteban Chaves

Stage 14: Urdax-Dantxarinea › Aubisque – 196.1km

Saturday’s stage offers plenty of opportunities for the GC heavyweights and stagehunters alike to make moves. After a flat first 50km, it’s a brutal run to the line, with three hard Cat. 1s en route to an hors categorie finish.

The final ascent, to Aubisque, is relatively steady, 16.5km at 7.1%, with a few steeper stretches. With that challenge to close out a day with three other tough climbs, stage 14 is all about uphill endurance.

The lumpy profile had me thinking breakaway at the start of this week, but now I’m not so sure. After the peloton gave the early break a half hour advantage in Stage 13, I can see a strong case for the well-rested GC contenders battling it out for Stage 14 honors. I’d say it’s 50/50 now.

Since there are only a few potential stage winners that really stand out among the red jersey hopefuls, I’ll start there. This climb suits the Grand Tour stars quite well, so I’m expecting a big showdown between Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome. They’re neck and neck right now, but if I had to pick one over the other for this stage going in, I suppose I’d pick Froome. If he can win on Peña Cabarga, which I think suits him less, he can win here. Of course, so can Quintana.

Speaking of Sky and Movistar, Leopold König and Alejandro Valverde, though they may be lieutenants on their respective teams, could steal the show here given how well they’ve been riding.

Esteban Chaves tried his luck in Stage 11 and it didn’t pan out, but I think he’s got another nice chance here. Alberto Contador seems likely to attack, as he’s been pretty active so far, so he’s worth watching too, though I don’t know that he’s capable of holding off a motivated Froome or Quintana.

The list of potential breakaway winners is long as usual, but I especially like Rubén Fernandez, Robert Gesink, Tejay van Garderen, Joe Dombrowski, Pierre Rolland, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Darwin Atapuma, Pierre Latour, and Thomas De Gendt.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rubén Fernandez