Category: Race Previews

Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco 2015 Preview

While the Cobbled Classics stars do battle in Northern Europe, many of the peloton’s top climbers are headed to the Basque Country for the Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco. With a parcours that includes both climbs and an ITT, it attracts plenty of Grand Tour-style riders. It also happens to be a hilly race just a few days in advance of the Ardennes Classics, and therefore, it draws many of the likely protagonists of those races as well. True to form, the 2015 edition boasts an appealing, bumpy route and a strong startlist of stars with a variety of specializations.

The Route

There isn’t a lot of flat in the Vuelta al País Vasco. Potential launching pads are everywhere in this race.

Stages 1 and 2 both involve some hills and both end with downhill sections; sprint finishes (likely reduced) are possible, though only if the interested teams can work well to keep any attacks on a short leash. Stage 3 will test the riders with eight categorized climbs, which will almost certainly break things up.

Stage 4 finishes at Arrate just after a Cat. 1 summit. The race often sees a major shakeup here. Another eight-climb day on Stage 5 (closing out with a Cat. 2) will probably see plenty more action. None of these climbs are terribly long, meaning that those riders who can put some punch into a quick uphill charge will thrive.

Stage 6, the final day of racing, is an 18.3-kilometer ITT. The first half is downhill, but then the road goes up, and then down, and then up again towards the finish. Those two uphill sections are pretty tough, which will make this an interesting chrono to close out the Tour of the Basque Country

The General Classification Contenders

Although he would probably prefer the climbs to be more alpine in nature, 2013 winner Nairo Quintana looks like the top contender for the Tour of the Basque Country. Quintana knows how to win this race, he does well even in the time trials here (and this hilly ITT will suit him more than most), and he recently displayed incredible form when he won Tirreno-Adriatico ahead of a powerhouse field. It’s hard to see anyone matching him on the climbs, and he should be able to hold his own on the final stage time trial. With Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the startlist as well, Movistar has a stacked lineup for this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski of EQS is the other top favorite for this race. 2nd last year, he has looked to be in excellent form (which he showed with a 2nd place in the recent Paris-Nice. Due to his nice sprint, he would surely prefer bonus seconds, but his explosiveness will suit him plenty even without added time bonuses at the line. He also happens to be one of the best time trialists in the world. It won’t be easy, but if he can hang with Quintana on the tough uphill stuff in this race, he should manage to take a victory on the back of his impressive chrono skills. Tony Martin, who can climb better than many realize, could have a chance at the overall as well.

A powerhouse BMC squad the includes Tejay van Garderen, Rohan Dennis, Samuel Sánchez, and Darwin Atapuma can’t be overlooked. Van Garderen has had a bit of an up-and-down season but his form looked very good at the queen stage of the Volta a Catalunya. If he can manage to avoid having a bad day here (the rainy Basque Country won’t make that easy) he should contend, especially given his great ITT skills. Rohan Dennis obviously sports a strong ITT as well, and is improving as a climber with every race, while Samuel Sanchez seems to always do well in this race, given his punchy skillset, well-suited to the parcours. Atapuma is a bit of a wildcard. He doesn’t get many opportunities to ride for himself but he just put in a nice Top 10 in Catalunya and could get some freedom here.

Rui Costa will love this route (he is a specialist on this sort of terrains) and his ability to put in a nice time trial, especially on a hilly profile, is constantly underrated by cycling analysts. That makes him a strong contender.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has improved as a time trialist and, 2nd in the Critérium International, he seems to have the for necessary to be in the mix here. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has been a strong time trialist for a long time and, 1st in the Critérium International, he most certainly has the form necessary to be in the mix here.

Bauke Mollema, 2nd at Tirreno-Adriatico, could continue to shine here. His form in Italy was impressive; he seemed to ride there at a level above what he can typically muster. It’s hard to say whether that will continue here but if the same Bauke Mollema shows up, he’ll contend for the win, with teammate Julián Arredondo an option for Trek as well. Meanwhile, Joaquim Rodriguez is on unknown form after skipping the Volta a Catalunya, but obviously he’s a very dangerous rider in this ultra-hilly race, especially with the Ardennes Classics looming. Simon Spilak was impressive at Paris-Nice and Daniel Moreno is always a strong alternative as well. Andrew Talansky, Tom Dumoulin, Mikel Nieve and Sergio Henao, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, and Rafal Majka are others with a shot at the GC in this Tour of the Basque Country.

The Stagehunters

The parcours seems to be deterring the class of pure sprinters who lack versatility from making the trip, but there are plenty of in-between types with fast finishes and strong climbing legs who will hope to bag stage wins here. Michael Matthews, Ben Swift, and Gianni Meersman look to be the class of the bunch, all capable of hanging on over uphill challenges and battling it out at the finish line in a sprint.

Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Philippe Gilbert, Diego Ulissi, Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Simon Gerrans are strong bets to battle it out with the GC types for the intermediate stages that could come down to punchy late attacks or small group sprints; the versatile Lotto duo of Wellens and Gallopin could conceivably contend for the overall if they ride strategically.

And, of course, watch out for Amets Txurruka to try to go on the attack at all times. A constant fixture in KOM competitions in Spanish races, Txurruka has never actually won a WorldTour-level race, but his spirited breakaway attempts have come close in the past.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Nairo Quintana
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Rui Costa, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Thibaut Pinot, Samuel Sánchez, Andrew Talansky, Joaquim Rodríguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mikel Ortega.

April 5, 2015
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Preview

With E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the books, the Tour of Flanders is almost here. Sans Fabian Cancellara (and Tom Boonen, though he would not have enjoyed the same level of favorite status as Cancellara even if he were here) the 2015 Ronde looks especially open, which should make for quite a race.

The Route

At 264 kilometers, the Tour of Flanders is a long one, and the arduous journey gets more and more difficult as the day wears on. The peloton will set out from scenic Bruges and head south towards the cobbled climbs that this race has made so famous. The route contains seventeen officially classified climbs this year, many of them repeat trips up the same ascents, as the course starts looping into itself and covering the same ground again for multiple visits to these famous hellingen.

The final string of climbs that runs from roughly kilometer 219 to kilometer 251 are the likely battleground where this race will play out. Over the top of brutal challenges like the Koppenberg, after already having been up and over so many of these cobbles all day, the peloton is likely to break apart. And if things aren’t already shattered to pieces by the time the peloton hits the final climbs of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, the attacks are certain to fly on the long drag of the former and the vicious steepness of the latter.

After the descent from the Paterberg, it’s a mostly straight run to the line, meaning that anyone hoping to whittle down the lead group is going to look to act before the final few kilometers.

The Contenders

It’s a wide open field for the Tour of Flanders this season, with four or five riders enjoying roughly equivalent favorite status and a host of others nipping at their heels. LottoNL’s Sep Vanmarcke is certainly among the top contenders. The Belgian cobbled specialist was 3rd here in 2014 and despite never quite coming away with that big win he’s been searching for in his career, he’s displayed the grit, the bike handling, the climbing chops, and the explosive required to make a bid for glory here. The results in the run-up races of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem haven’t quite been where he would have hoped, with others appearing stronger out on the road in both events, but this is the real prize for Vanmarcke and he seems like an excellent rider to watch as the final Kwaremont-Paterberg double approaches.

Similarly versatile is Zdenek Stybar of Etixx-QuickStep, who happens to also have a true powerhouse of talent supporting him team-wise. Stybar looks to be the best of the EQS riders for this race because, among the Classics stars on this QuickStep roster, he best combines climbing legs and a powerful finishing kick. But Niki Terpstra and especially Stijn Vandenbergh, 4th here last year and extremely savvy racing these roads, give the team options. Expect to see attacks flying from all sides late in this race.

Team Sky also brings firepower with their many talented stars on the roster, with Geraint Thomas leading the way. Among the strongest climbers in this Ronde, Thomas is on terrific form right now as evidenced by his win at E3 and his follow-up 3rd place at Gent-Wevelgem. Being able to rely on Ian Stannard and Bradley Wiggins will help. With a pair of Top 10s here already on his resume and a recent win in a race that incorporated many of the same climbs, Thomas has the experience necessary to take on this race as a top favorite and it would be a big surprise not to see him try something on one of the final climbs. The question is whether he’ll be able to shed his top rivals who might give him a run for his money in a small sprint.

One rider certain to be hoping that this race ends with a small group sprinting for the win is Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan. Flying more under the radar right now than maybe he was expecting to be due to a general lack of results this year, Sagan might have a bit of an advantage that he doesn’t usually enjoy; so often, his plans are foiled immediately because all of his rivals are eying him at all times. This year, with the focus on other riders, Sagan may have a chance to make something happen the way he wants to. The form hasn’t been too bad, and this is a major objective, so he can’t be ignored even though he hasn’t been lighting it up coming into the Ronde this year.

After a crash at E3, where his skillset would have made him one of the likely top contenders at the business end of the race, Greg Van Avermaet might be flying under the radar a bit as well. But he seems to have recovered from his fall and he has been in excellent shape so far this year. 2nd here last year and a more capable sprinter than most, he may be able to look for the right wheels to follow this year rather than launching one of his trademark “almost-good-enough” attacks. Daniel Oss makes for a terrific teammate.

Speaking of terrific teammates, Alexander Kristoff will be in good hands with Luca Paolini at his side as well. In Katusha’s pre-race press conference, Paolini was very clear in his support of Kristoff, and that solidarity will be a great boon for the Norwegian. It won’t be easy to keep this together for a sprint (which is what Kristoff will need to win here) but Kristoff is tougher than most and with Paolini to help close down attacks if necessary, he has a fighting chance. So too does John Degenkolb, who may not have much of a history in this race but who has shown that he can climb well (winning plenty of hilly, intermediate-stage type races in the past) and ride cobbles well (winning Gent-Wevelgem in 2014 and taking 2nd in Paris-Roubaix that year) which are the necessary requirements to hanging on here. Given the difficult nature of this race and the wide open field likely to see constant attacks, I think the sprinters will have a very hard time here, but Kristoff and Degenkolb are the two obvious riders to watch in that potential scenario.

Jürgen Roelandts, who proved his great form with a bold solo move in Gent-Wevelgem, also packs a quick finish and that makes him dangerous here, with the surprising Jens Debusschere as an alternative. Stijn Devolder will head up Trek’s Flanders campaign in the absence of Fabian Cancellara. Cannondale-Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld was a late addition to the startlist, recovering from a recent crash; he’s a great talent in unknown shape right now. Astana’s Lars Boom, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and a stable of young Topsport Vlaanderen talents that includes Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns are among the outsiders who will hope to contend.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Geraint Thomas
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jürgen Roelandts, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more roadside analysis during the race. Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, with pre-race insight from Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, and Patrick Lefevere.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mick Knapton.

April 4, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Barcelona › Barcelona – 126.6 km

After yet another surprise stage winner on the sixth day of the race (Sergey Chernetskiy won from the breakaway), it’s fitting that the Volta a Catalunya should close out with an unpredictable Stage 7. The 126.6-kilometer route will take the peloton in and around Barcelona, the Catalonian capital, and the profile is punctuated by eight trips up the Alt de Montjuïc, a 2 kilometer ascent with a 5.7% average gradient. After each climb comes a winding descent that leads back into the foot of the next journey upward, except for the final one, which runs right down to the finish line.

The up-and-down nature of the second half of the stage makes this a terrific day for the breakaway riders; the pack will have a hard time controlling the race with so many tempo changes and twists and turns near the finish. The eight-climbs-of-the-Montjuïc finale was used in both of the past two editions of the Volta and breakaway riders took it both times. Still, things are so tight on the overall leaderboard, and that the bonus seconds on offer here will be enticing for those looking to take this race out of Richie Porte’s hands; in short, as hard as it will be to maintain a hold on this race, many strong teams in the peloton will be motivated to do so.

Should the breakaway make it three straight years of success, look for riders like Tejay van Garderen, Tom Danielson, Maciej Paterski, and Jonathan Hivert to try to get one more day of hard work out of their legs after already putting in a lot of mileage off the front already. Giampaolo Caruso, far enough behind on GC that he might be given a bit of freedom, could be a good rider to watch here as well, on a parcours that suits his strong kick. Samuel Sánchez is another rider who is great on the short climbs and outside of GC contention; BMC has been working hard to get as much out of this race as possible, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them give Sánchez the green light to make a move if van Garderen is finally feeling a little winded after another difficult day. The stage also suits Enrico Gasparotto, Julien Simon, and Martin Elmiger.

Regardless of whether they’re fighting for stage honors, the GC riders will have their hands full here, with so much climbing and descending. If they do manage to reel in the breakaway and fight for the victory, an in-form Alejandro Valverde is again a good pick to win another day. Explosive Dan Martin and fast-finishing Rigoberto Urán and Wilco Kelderman are others on the GC leaderboard who are likely to battle it out here if it comes down to the overall race contenders.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Giampaolo Caruso | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Preview

Geraint Thomas provided an exciting start to the WorldTour leg of Classics season with his bold move to win E3 Harelbeke on Friday. Now it’s on to Gent-Wevelgem.

The Route

A 240 kilometer trek through Flanders, starting in Deinze (outside of Ghent) and ending in Wevelgem, the race has a flat enough finale that things are often decided in a sprint. However, cobbled climbs along the way often make things a bit more interesting, whittling the peloton down to the tougher riders in the crowd or helping to launch the more aggressive types to victory from afar. There are nine officially recognized climbs on the profile (several of those are repeat ascents of the same uphill challenge). They are all crested after the 110 kilometer mark and before the 200 kilometer mark—the first 100 km and the final 30 are relatively flat.

The short but steep Baneberg, Kemmelberg, and Monteberg trio of climbs, a few kilometers southwest of Ieper, are done twice, and the conclusion of that second run-through also marks the end of the hellingen in Gent-Wevelgem. The difficult cobbles of the Kemmelberg, in particular, could be a battleground in this race, especially with the help of a common visitor to the event that seems scheduled to make another appearance in 2015: bad weather. As of Saturday, rain and very strong winds are both set to join the peloton for Gent-Wevelgem. Even with a less topographically challenging final 30 kilometers, the combination of tough cobbled climbs (and the often hairy descents that follow) in the middle of the day and likely difficult conditions throughout will surely do their damage.

The Contenders

The dearth of long climbs on the profile, especially close to the finish line, makes this a major target for the top sprinter’s in the peloton, but the bergs, the cobbles, the race distance, and the Flanders conditions will make the tougher quick men the top favorites for victory in this race, though a few of the more aggressive Classics specialists will certainly have a chance at taking this win for themselves.

Alexander Kristoff is at home in terrible conditions, comfortable on the cobbles, capable of a little climbing, and usually fresher than most after a very long day. He also happens to pack a powerful sprint. Though probably just a hair behind the likes of Marcel Kittel in terms of pure speed, here in the Classics, Kristoff’s makes up for the just slightly lower velocity with pure grit. There is no guarantee that this race ends in a sprint, but if it does, it’s hard to look past Kristoff’s abilities. He’s likely to hold on longer than most even if a high pace over the cobbled climbs starts dropping other sprinters, and if he’s there at the end of the day, few can match him in speed.

If he’s there as well, however, 2014 John Degenkolb will give Kristoff a run for his money. Already victorious over Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo, Degenkolb seems to get better and better every year both in the versatility department and in the top speed department. He’s a proven rider here in Gent-Wevelgem and on Flanders terrain in general. He might prefer a few more uphill challenges (his climbing legs are better than most) to maybe make things more selective but even if this race is contested in a large bunch sprint at the end of the day, Degenkolb will be a strong contender to repeat.

Mark Cavendish doesn’t have the same sort of versatility as some of the more Classics-oriented quick men here, but he is probably the fastest in a battle of pure speed. It won’t be easy making it to the line in the lead group, especially given the weather forecast, but if Cavendish can do it, he’ll have a great chance here—EQS teammate Matteo Trentin (3rd in E3) will be a strong second option in the sprints. Lotto Soudal’s André Greipel, who often rivals Cav in the pure sprints in stage races, and who has come close here in the past, is another very fast rider who will hope to hold on for a sprint at the end of a long day.

2014 runner-up Arnaud Démare has not had as much success early this season as he would have liked, but he is a big talent on this sort of parcours and motivated to prove himself as FDJ’s sole top name in the sprints this season. The rider he edged out for 2nd last year, Peter Sagan, will have an interesting choice to make this year: will he try to hold on for a sprint and test his luck against a pack of other fast finishers (as he did unsuccessfully in 2014) or will he launch a late attack and try to catch them all by surprise (as he did successfully in 2013, when he won the race)? The smart choice would seem to be to try to get away in a smaller group here, as he has not had much success in the bunch sprint lately. Either way, multi-talented Sagan is a threat in any scenario.

Giacomo Nizzolo has never finished this race, but given his skillset, he’ll be in with a chance. He’s a powerful sprinter, with a recent win at the GP Nobili, who doesn’t mind a long day. Unfortunately for Nizzolo, he crashed out of Dwars Door Vlaanderen and his current level of readiness to face the difficult Belgian roads again in a major race is unclear.

Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Heinrich Haussler, Tyler Farrar, Sam Bennett, Jens Debusschere, and JJ Lobato are other quick men who will have a chance if it all comes down to a sprint.

Several familiar names seem the most likely protagonists to shake up the race with a late attack. Sep Vanmarcke, on great form right now, 2nd here in 2010, and typically unfazed by bad weather, is a particularly dangerous rider right now. His continually improving sprinting ability makes his case even stronger. Pedal problems plagued slowed him at E3, but that should only make him hungrier for more racing these next few days.

Greg Van Avermaet may not have the sprinting chops of the top quick men here but he could still win in a reduced gallop, if he is feeling comfortable and still confident after a bad crash at E3 Harelbeke.

E3 Harelbeke winner Geraint Thomas is one of the sport’s most versatile riders, capable of soloing, climbing, and even sprinting at a high level. This parcours doesn’t suit him quite as well as E3’s did but there are still plenty of opportunities to attack here.

The powerful EQS trio of Zdenek Stybar, Stijn Vandenbergh, and Niki Terpstra, MTN-Qhubeka’s new acquisition Edvald Boasson Hagen, Filippo Pozzato, Lars Boom, and Jurgen Roelandts are others with a chance of winning solo or from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Mark Cavendish
Other Top Contenders: Peter Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke, Greg Van Avermaet, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, André Greipel, Matteo Trentin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 28, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Cervera › Port Aventura – 194.1 km

Stage 5 of the Volta a Catalunya was yet another day of GC action, with Alejandro Valverde soloing to victory ahead of a select group of riders, but the profile of Stage 6 will have the sprinters finally hoping for a chance to make their mark on the race. The long, low-gradient Alt de Prades in the middle of the stage won’t be an easy jaunt for anyone, but with about 70 kilometers after the top of the climb until the beginning of the next categorized challenge, anyone who struggles on the Cat. 1 will have plenty of opportunity to get back into the mix. That next categorized challenge is a short Cat. 3 crested over 30 kilometers from the line. From there, it’s a fast downhill followed by about 20 km of flat.

The late climb and steep descent towards the end of the day will certainly entice the punchier riders in the bunch, but several sprinters made their way to Catalunya hoping to come away with WorldTour stage victories, and one has to think that after so many days escaping their fast-finishing grasps, those quick men will be gunning for this stage, where a relative dearth of climbs will give them a chance.

Still, some uphill ability will be required to come to the line fresh. Bryan Coquard, very fast in a pure sprint but also capable of going up and over the occasional climb, is the prime pick. With Pierre Rolland out of the GC picture, Europcar should be throwing their full weight behind Coquard now.

Luka Mezgec is another strong pick, also very fast in a pure sprint. Unlike Coquard, he’s won several WorldTour-level sprints in his career, and against the young up-and-comer (who does tend to have positioning issues), that experience could come in handy.

Julian Alaphilippe gets a mention practically every day, but he hasn’t delivered just yet. Still, he’ll be more capable of surviving the pressure of late attacks by the GC riders than most of the other quick men here. The same is true for JJ Rojas, but Movistar clearly isn’t done backing Alejandro Valverde in this race just yet.

Speaking of Valverde, he’s certainly a contender again on Stage 6, where the late ramp will offer him a chance to break up the race, or at least shed some sprinter weight. As usual, Dan Martin, Rigoberto Urán, and Wilco Kelderman are others to watch if the final lead group is reduced too much to feature any sprinters.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Julian Alaphilippe

-Dane Cash

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis!

March 27, 2015
E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015