Category: Race Previews

Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Collecchio > Savona – 249 km

Thanks to the landslide that forced race organizers to add 10 kilometers to Stage 6, what would have been the longest stage in the Giro d’Italia is now the second longest, but regardless, it’s still quite a lengthy trip from start to finish in Stage 11. It comes after a rest day and a sprinters’ day (on which VeloHuman stage favorite Nacer Bouhanni again took a victory ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo), but with a very important individual time trial on the horizon, the GC contenders might be content to let the early attackers stay out front all day. What’s more, the rolling parcours of Stage 11 is one of the most breakaway-friendly profiles in the Giro. Whoever is on the front as the kilometers tick down, the steep Naso di Gatto (Category 2, 7.2 km at an average of 8%) must be crested about 30 km from the finish, and with a long descent to the finish line to follow, there should be plenty of action towards the end of the day.

As with any likely breakaway scenario, this one will be extremely difficult to call. Predicting which riders are well-suited for a parcours is difficult enough, but predicting which will try to get into a break and succeed in their efforts is even harder! Still, some names stand out ahead of others as likely candidates (though as wide open as the stage is, the list of potential contenders here is a long one). Many of the riders I like for the stage have the sort of skillset that could excel both from a breakaway or from the pack.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo has the burst to make a strong bid for victory over the final climb. He’s out of the GC picture and hunting for stage wins and mountain points. With an ITT and then a rather flat day to come, he can afford to go deep on this long stage. Stefano Pirazzi of Bardiani – CSF is another rider with similar goals, and he’s known for his ability to put the hammer down for a quick uphill attack. This stage won’t require the legs of some of the high mountain climbs to come, but it will favor those with some punch, which will be in Pirazzi’s wheelhouse.

Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen is very well-suited to this difficult parcours. He could give the day’s breakaway and shot, a if he can make the group, he’ll be a very dangerous rider, with the all-around skillset to stay out front for a very long time and a top speed that is tough to match at the line. His teammate Ben Swift may see this as an opportunity as well. For the same reasons, Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews could look to get into the breakaway. This trio of versatile fast-finishers might be able to hold on over the final climb from the pack as well, but they could have better chances if they go out front themselves; it will be interesting to see how to play it, but in either scenario, all three are potential stage winners.

Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto has hit a lot of misfortune in this Giro, going down in the rainy opening stages on more than one occasion. This long, undulating parcours with a short but steep climb towards the end is reminiscent of the classics, where Gasparotto has had success in his career. This could be a day for him to try to make the breakaway. Neri-Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi and Mauro Finetto have similar skillsets and could also make a bid to get out front. Cannondale has Moreno Moser, Daniele Ratto, and Oscar Gatto for this sort of contest. Stefano Pirazzi’s Bardiani – CSF teammate Enrico Battaglin is another rider with good climbing legs and a nice kick, and he could be a nice bet. The same is true for Julian Arredondo’s Trek teammate Fabio Felline. Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen loves grueling stages that will put the endurance of his breakaway companions to the test, while teammate Tim Wellens is an aggressive, versatile rider with a fast finish who is targeting stages and possibly even mountain points. Katusha’s Luca Paolini has the classics background for a long day of rolling hills. Stage 9 winner Pieter Weening of Orica-GreenEdge might be able to hang tough out front on this profile. Sky’s Dario Cataldo also has the endurance and won’t be troubled by the climbs. Team Colombia has numerous options in Fabio Duarte, Robinson Chalapud, and Miguel Angel Rubiano. Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas was suffering after-effects of a crash in a pair of earlier stages that looked to suit him but he seems to be back on form now, and could target this one. Former GC hopefuls like Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Lampre’s Damiano Cunego could find the finale suits them.

The punchier types listed above could decide they have better chances from the peloton; however, even if the breakaway is reeled in, those who have decided to stay in the pack will have to contend with the GC riders for supremacy on Stage 11. Lampre’s Diego Ulissi has been known to struggle on the longer days but he’s shown improved endurance so far in this Giro and this parcours is well-suited to his talents. If he weren’t so high up on GC at the moment, he’d probably target this one from the breakaway, but he’ll have to settle for his chances from the peloton. Rigoberto Uran of OPQS has the burst for an uphill charge, or a reduced sprint. His teammate Wout Poels is close enough on GC that he might not be allowed into the breakaway, but he has shown a nice combination of endurance, climbing legs, and burst this year and could do well with a late attack from the pack. BMC’s Cadel Evans has put his nice sprint on display in this race and could succeed if things hold together over the final climb and descent. Wilco Kelderman of Belkin has also proven he can be in the mix with a late move or in a reduced sprint.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looks very strong right now and he’s not afraid to jump from the pack when the road goes up. Pierre Rolland could try to get aggressive on the final bump as well. This isn’t really the sort of ascent that makes one think of Nairo Quintana but he’s always worth a mention with a late steep climb, though he still seems to be in a bit of pain from his Stage 6 crash and might want to conserve his energy for a very important ITT on Thursday.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Diego Ulissi

After the conclusion of Stage 11, keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 12; the individual time trial will have major GC implications. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 20, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Modena > Salsomaggiore Terme – 173 km

After the rest day, it’s a very flat stage likely to go the sprinters. The all-rounders will enjoy the extended break from climbing after back-to-back days in the mountains. Pieter Weening hung on for Sunday’s Stage 9 victory after a long day in the breakaway and Domenico Pozzovivo picked up some valuable time on the rest of the GC contenders who finished mostly together atop a tough final climb.

If the sprinters let Stage 10 one get away from them, they will have really dropped the ball: the profile shouldn’t leave much room for alternate scenarios. That last bump in the road is not particularly challenging, and shouldn’t cause any problems for the fast men. It is, however, followed by a tricky high-speed descent and yet another technical final few kilometers (the Giro seems to love forcing riders to put their bike handling skills on display at every sprint finish in the race) that will make the fight for position fierce.

I am running out of new ways to name the same few riders as favorites for the flatter days, so I’ll just keep it direct. Nacer Bouhanni has shown that he’s the sprinter to beat in this Giro d’Italia now that Marcel Kittel is no longer in the race. He has the acceleration, he has the top speed, and, of special importance in these technical finishes, he has the ability to get himself into the right position for the final kick, even without a strong leadout. Until the other quick men show that they can put it all together as well as he can, Bouhanni is the favorite.

That being said, Cannondale’s Elia Viviani, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, and Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec are all very speedy and they all have dedicated leadouts working hard to get them set up perfectly for success. Having defeated Mark Cavendish twice already this season (in Turkey), Viviani may have the highest ceiling in the sprints, but his train hasn’t quite figured things out yet and Viviani himself has fallen short even when he has looked well-positioned in the last moments. Nizzolo looks in top shape but he continues to find himself just slightly out of place in the final meters, going too early or too late. Mezgec has a stellar leadout and he showed in Stage 7 that he has the ability to mix it up with the very best in the race, but he still has a bit to prove as he has only had a few opportunities to race for himself in the biggest races at this point in his young career. Really, any of these riders could get it right on Stage 10.

Roberto Ferrari of Lampre-Merida has been remarkably consistent in this Giro, finishing in the Top 7 of all four sprint stages thus far. Maybe he’ll turn that consistency into a victory here. Sky’s Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen combination have been protagonists as well; both went down in Stage 6 but hopefully at least one of the pair is back to full strength by now. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews was a strong 4th in Stage 7, and now that he’s not in the pink jersey anymore his team won’t be spending as much time on the front of the peloton, which should give them a bit more freshness for the leadout. Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, Androni Giacattoli’s Manuel Belletti and Omega Pharma’s Alessandro Petacchi lead up a list of outsiders a bit further on the periphery.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Elia Viviani | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

The preview of Stage 11 will be up Tuesday evening after the conclusion of Stage 10. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 19, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Lugo > Sestola – 172 km

Another mountain test awaits the peloton on the Giro d’Italia’s ninth stage. The big names will all be at least a bit winded after a tough day: the GC riders put in some high pace on the climbs of Stage 8 to reel in the last survivor of the early breakaway, Julian Arredondo, in the final minutes, and then Diego Ulissi put in an impressive uphill charge for the stage victory. The first 110 kilometers of Sunday’s ninth stage are quite flat, but then the road kicks up leading into a trio of Categorized climbs: a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and then a long Cat. 2 ascent to the finish at Sestola. The first two lumps will take a bit out of the riders, but it’s the final climb that will do most of the hurting. 16.5 kilometers in total, it’s an irregular ascent that starts out with 8.5 km at a little under 5%, then jumps up to almost 9% (with a section of 13%) for 4 kilometers or so, and then eases off to 4.5% over the final few kilometers. The long first section, even at a less-than-fearsome gradient, will be a challenge after the peloton has already been riding skyward for so long. Whoever is at the front, the strongest climbers among the group should be able to hang on, but the attacks could come fast and furious in the very steep section that follows. If a lead group of riders makes it through to the gentler gradients near the top, a strong sprint will be useful in taking the day.

With so many of them hoping to pick up bonus seconds at the finish line, the GC riders made the effort to keep the break in check on Stage 8. There will certainly be opportunists who try to get ahead on Stage 9, but I’m not sure the peloton is feeling very generous at this point in the race. What’s more, some of the likeliest names for a breakaway success were very active in a tough Stage 8 and they’ll have a lot of recovering to do if they want to make a successful jump off the front in Sunday’s contest.

The irregular final climb makes this one tough to call even if the day’s breakers are swallowed up: a pure climber could take advantage of the brutal midsection on the slope and try for a solo move, but the GC strongmen have been very attentive so far about marshaling even the late attacks from the peloton. That could leave the stage open to a fast finish from a reduced bunch.

I think Stage 8 winner Diego Ulissi is in an excellent position to pick up a third win here. It’s not a particularly long stage, and the final climb provides opportunities both for a jump from the pack or a sprint victory. Ulissi is strong in either scenario, making him my top favorite. I do think he is a bit vulnerable if Movistar or AG2R really decide to put the hammer down for sustained periods in the steeper sections, but he’s been very impressive on the tough climbs so far.

Rigoberto Uran is also strong contender for a number of scenarios: he’s got the elite uphill ability to match any attacks that might come or even make them on his own, and he’s also got the turn of speed for a sprint finish. New pink jersey wearer Cadel Evans is another: he hasn’t shown many signs of weakness on the climbs yet, and on lesser gradients he’s one of the fastest finishers of the GC riders. BMC’s team support in the mountains has been surprising so far, with Steve Morabito doing some amazing work for his leader on Stage 8. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has ridden himself into this conversation with some very strong finishes lately; this time last year I viewed him as a strong time trialist who could hold his own on the climbs, but suddenly he looks like a top climber who can be explosive at the line as well.

Nairo Quintana is an obvious choice for any stage that ends with 16.5 uphill kilometers, but the grade becomes much less challenging near the top, which doesn’t favor his style and will probably require a long distance move for him to stay away. The same is true for Domenico Pozzovivo. Still, either rider could launch from afar on the steeper gradient, and both have strong teams to help whittle down the group as the going gets tough. Pozzovivo’s AG2R squad, in particular, has been sterling. They were quite prominent at the head of the pack on the climbs of Stage 8.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo would be a good pick to get aggressive on this profile but after such a strong performance on Stage 8, I’m not sure he’ll have the energy to pull off another. The same is true for his breakaway companion Stefano Pirazzi and for the rider who made a dash of his own late on the road up to Montecopiolo, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland.

For some outsiders among the GC guys: Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has done a nice job to pick up the slack in the absence of Dan Martin and he can put in a nice turn of uphill speed. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has been climbing very well. Astana’s Fabio Aru has really lived up to the hype so far, which is crucial now that Michele Scarponi has fallen off the pace. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi has taken his game to the next level this season and is climbing amazingly right now.

Of the riders that might be allowed to jump ahead, Daniel Moreno has to be the biggest name for me on this profile. He has the perfect skillset for the stage, and he’s too far down on GC to be a threat in the pink jersey contest. Also on the list of strong would-be GC riders who have fallen off the pace are Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, Astana’s Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego (who excels at this sort of finish). Other riders who might find success in the right move include Lotto Belisol’s Tim Wellens and Adam Hansen, OGE’s Pieter Weening, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Miguel Rubiano, Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini and Mauro Finetto, and Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin and Edoardo Zardini.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Rigoberto Uran

After Stage 9, the peloton gets to enjoy a rest day. The preview of Tuesday’s Stage 10 will be up on Monday. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

May 17, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Foligno > Montecopiolo – 179 km

Most of the major GC action in the Giro so far has come as a result of crashes on constantly wet roads, but Stage 8 will finally offer the sort of uphill tests to set up the first major mountain battle of the race. The pink jersey contenders were able to enjoy some time in the backseat on Stage 7 while the sprint teams took up the task of pulling back the day’s breakaway (Nacer Bouhanni was the stage winner just ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec). Hopefully the overall contenders got as much rest as possible, because Stage 8 closes out with a Cat. 1 ascent, a very tricky descent, and then a two-part climb, officially classified as a Cat. 2, followed by a quick descent, and then a Cat. 1 finish.

Coming in such quick succession, the already difficult climbs will inject serious pain into the legs of anyone who isn’t at full strength. The ascent up the Cippo di Carpegna, which averages nearly 10%, will wear on even the best climbers, but following it up with an irregular climb up to the finish at Montecopiolo practically guarantees that gaps will start to form. Even if a small group manages to hold it together at the front most of the way up, the final few hundred meters of racing kick up to 13%, which should force some separation as the very lightest climbers jump for the finish.

Naturally, with some serious mountains on the docket, it will probably be the serious climbers who challenge for stage supremacy. We haven’t had that much of an opportunity to see which of them are on the best form right now, but this stage should help sort that out. On reputation and ability, Nairo Quintana is the somewhat obvious choice for stage favorite. Having lost some valuable seconds to his biggest rivals across the TTT and crash-filled sixth stage, Quintana needs to get moving on pulling back time. He’ll benefit from the help of a strong Movistar squad, with the likes of Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton as great lieutenants. This is an important opportunity to for Movistar to set the tone as the Giro enters its more difficult second and third weeks.

Rigoberto Uran is another rider who will look to make a statement here. He’s sitting nicely in the GC standings thanks to his Omega Pharma’s strong Stage 1 performance, but this is a real test of form. He’s had a mostly forgettable season on the climbs so far, but at his best he can mix it up with the elite mountain goats in the peloton. Furthermore, he’s got an explosive uphill kick, and if he reaches the final few hundred meters in a group, he’ll love the opportunity to launch a move for bonus seconds.

BMC’s Cadel Evans is also looking great for GC at the moment, bolstered by an excellent early TTT and the chunk of time he picked up on Stage 6. Winning this stage will be a lot to ask, as it’s a real question whether he can hang with the best climbers in this race at this point in his career, but with his stellar Giro del Trentino, he looks to have timed his peak nicely this season.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looked very impressive catching back onto the peloton after being held up in the crash on Stage 6. He’s an elite climber who will be looking to gain time at every uphill opportunity, and I think this one suits him nicely. As I mentioned in my overall race preview, I really do expect him to mix it up with the big favorites in this Giro, and this will be his first test.

With Nicolas Roche out of the maglia rosa picture, Rafal Majka is now the guy for Tinkoff-Saxo’s GC ambitions. He was never far from the front on the toughest tests of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he has another year of experience in 2014. I like his chances, especially with a very strong team backing him. Then again, I also wouldn’t put it past Roche to be on the hunt for stage wins now that he’s a non-factor for the pink jersey.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo and Lampre’s Diego Ulissi are explosive young climbers who will hope to hang on through a very difficult day and then launch late attacks on the irregular final slope. As yet another rider losing time in Stage 6, Arredondo has the added benefit of no longer being a GC threat, and may therefore be given some leeway to strike out for stage glory.

Astana has a number of weapons to animate the climb, and I think they’ll be very aggressive with attacks. Fabio Aru is very well placed for GC, and he’s a great climber. Michele Scarponi needs to win back some time. Mikel Landa is always looking for opportunities to put his uphill ability on display. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno, Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec are other riders to watch.

It wouldn’t be out of the question for the GC heavyweights to let a real outsider go off the front, but so many of them are already in a position where every bonus second counts, so I expect to see the bigger names contesting the stage win here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Stage 8 should provide some great insights into which riders are on top form right now. Check back a few hours after the finish for the preview of Stage 9, which will throw another uphill challenge at the peloton. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 16, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Frosinone > Foligno – 211 km

Despite a few early hills on the profile, the GC men should have an opportunity to let the stagehuners take the driver’s seat on the Giro’s seventh stage. It will be a very welcome opportunity coming on the heels of the wildest day in this race so far. Late carnage on rainslicked roads on Stage 6 saw a number of riders hit the deck and slowed many more, allowing a small group that included BMC’s Cadel Evans and Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge to gap the bunch at the start of the final climb. Those behind eventually organized a chase, but the small group held their lead all the way up the slope, with VH stage favorite Michael Matthews sprinting to his first win of the Giro when they reached the top. With a few bonus seconds for his 3rd place on the stage thrown in, Evans picked up 53 seconds on the chasing group that included Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, and a few other contenders, but it took some time for the full consequences of the day’s carnage to be known. Those consequences turned out to be dire for several very big GC names, including one of the biggest in the race: Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a broken finger and bruised ribs in the crash, and although he did finish the stage, he has abandoned the Giro d’Italia. It’s another heartbreaking turn of events for Purito, who was so hopeful of finally getting that first Grand Tour win in this event. Several other GC contenders lost varying amounts of time. To name just a few, Lampre’s Damiano Cunego and Astana’s Michele Scarponi lost about a minute and a half to Evans, and Cunego’s teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec lost closer to two minutes, but they were relatively lucky compared to Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, who came across the line fifteen minutes down.

Purito wasn’t the only rider who abandoned in the wake of the crash-marred sixth stage (the list of abandons includes Purito’s teammates Angel Vicioso and Giampaolo Caruso, who are both out after suffering nasty injuries as well), so it will be a somewhat smaller peloton that sets out from Frosinone in Stage 7. There are a number of bumps along the road to Foligno, but none of them are particularly challenging, and the last one is crested with 40 km still to go on the day. Breakers will surely take their chances, but with a long, flat run to finish line, the sprinters’ teams should make a strong effort to pull back anyone who gets too far up the road. A breakaway victory is certainly possible, but I think a bunch sprint is the more likely outcome. Whatever the size of the lead group entering town, a nasty hairpin with about 1.5 km remaining will make for a fierce fight to get into position early, but the final kilometer that follows is not as technical as some we’ve seen so far; there is a gentle right turn with around 500 meters to go, but it shouldn’t slow down the riders too much. I don’t think the profile will be too much for any of the major sprinter names to handle, so after two days of finishes open to a considerably more versatile cast of contenders, I think we’ll see the familiar top-flight fastmen battling it out in the finale.

Cannondale has looked strong on every sprint stage of this race so far, but they haven’t been able to nail down their timing just yet. If they can perfect things here, Elia Viviani will be tough to beat, with an elite turn of top speed. He’s the first of my (probably unsurprising) trio of stage favorites. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni is the second. I think his leadout is something of a disadvantage, but he’s very good at fighting for his own position when he has to, and he already has a stage victory to prove that he is one of the fastest riders in this Giro. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo is the other rider I see as a top favorite. He has some excellent squadmates to deliver him to the finish at a very high speed, but he always finds himself just slightly out of position. I think he’s likely to get it right eventually, and I bet he’ll be flying over the final kilometer of Stage 7.

Luka Mezgec, now that Marcel Kittel is gone, will benefit from one of the best leadouts in the Giro d’Italia. He took the the final stage of WorldTour racing in 2013 in the Tour of Beijing, winning a sprint finish over both Bouhanni and Viviani, so I think he’s a real contender now that he’s Giant’s featured rider.

Sky seems to be behind Ben Swift on the flatter sprints in this race, with Edvald Boasson Hagen playing a fantastic second. The pair are quite formidable. I think they’d prefer a more challenging final half-hour of racing, but Swift was 2nd behind only Marcel Kittel on Stage 3 and will probably continue to place highly on even the flat days. As a note, Sky showed on Stage 5 that they aren’t afraid of sending one of their quick men into a break, and on this profile that has at least some potential for breakaway success, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they try again; Boasson Hagen is a particularly talented breakaway artist.

Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews would absolutely prefer more challenges on the profile, but he’s likely to at least be in contention late again. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a pretty constant fixture in the Top 10s of this Giro’s sprint finishes. He lacks the team support to be considered a big favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nab one of these sprint stages with some luck. Tyler Farrar hit the deck hard in Stage 6, so his overall health is something of an unknown. Manuel Belletti, Davide Appollonio, Francesco Chicchi, Jetse Bol, Tony Hurel, Alessandro Petacchi (should he finally decide to contend a sprint), and Nicola Ruffoni headline the other names who could challenge in a bunch gallop.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Elia Viviani | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Check back after Stage 7 for the preview of Stage 8; Saturday’s racing is likely to provide some GC fireworks! If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 15, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Sassano > Montecassino – 257 km

The sixth stage of the Giro d’Italia ends with another hilltop finish. It should bring out many of the same names that featured in today’s fifth stage. In the early goings of Stage 5, a number of sprinters, including Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, jumped into a breakaway and stayed out front long enough to pick up intermediate sprint points. Eventually, the breakers were reeled in by an OGE-led peloton. Prior to the final climb, a crash on a rain-soaked descent caused some confusion and a split, but most of the major contenders made it back on to the pack as they started to push uphill. A few riders fired off attacks, but a high-tempo Katusha squad marshaled any long-range moves, and in the end, things were decided in an uphill drag race as expected. VeloHuman Favorites Diego Ulissi and Cadel Evans were 1st and 2nd to the line. Julian Arredondo just barely missed out on runner-up honors and settled for 3rd. Rigoberto Uran was 4th. Michael Matthews managed to make it to the final meters with the bunch and delivered a valiant 6th on the day, but it was the real climbers who shone brightest in the end.

Stage 6 is a long one, totaling 257 kilometers (10 km were added in a landslide-forced route change), but with only a few early bumps and then a very long stretch of flat, it’s unlikely that there will be much action until the road starts to wind upward toward the hilltop finish at the Abbey of Montecassino. A little over 9 kilometers long, it’s a steady 5% climb almost all the way up, but it flattens out in the final km. It won’t be steep enough to favor long-range attackers, but it will certainly drop the big sprinters again and is likely to set up a scenario similar to the one we saw in Stage 5. Those riders with a fast finish who are light enough to hang on during the climb will probably contest a sprint finale atop the Category 2 hill.

I think we’ll see many of the same names who fought for Stage 5 fighting for Stage 6. In fact, my three stage favorites are the same three from yesterday’s preview, albeit in a different order. Stage 5 winner Diego Ulissi is again well-suited to the finish, but he may not like the 250 kilometers that come before it, as he does tend to struggle on longer days. Also, the final meters are less of a challenge than he likes. Still, he showed top-shelf form by winning handily in Viggiano, and I think he’ll be another top favorite for a post-climb sprint on Stage 6.

He may be forced to contend with some real sprinting talent on a flatter finish. There are only a handful of fast men capable of contending in a traditional bunch sprint who have the chops to survive this climb, but they could find themselves fighting for victory here. The journey to the Abbey of Montecassino will be more difficult than the last climb of Stage 5, but the closing meters of Stage 6 are significantly less steep, meaning that if Michael Matthews survives, he will be more at home in the final moments. The pink jersey wearer will be the favorite from a reduced bunch if he can manage to hang on, and the way he stayed with the GC men on Stage 5 gives me confidence in his ability even on the longer climb tomorrow. With Ben Swift jumping into the break on Stage 5, I think Sky has determined that Edvald Boasson Hagen is the better rider to back in a bunch finish on these uphill stages, so if forced to go with one or the other I’d pick the Norwegian here, but both might make it and they’ll be the top names with Matthews if they are there towards the end of the day. Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin showed off his ability to outsprint Grand Tour competition after a tough climb when he won a stage in last year’s Giro. This finish will suit his talents nicely, though he has yet to deliver much this year.

The journey to Viggiano ultimately favored the climbers and GC riders over the sprinters, and I think this stage will again see a number of major pink jersey contenders fighting for bonus seconds. Most of them would prefer a steeper final kilometer but BMC’s Cadel Evans, who was so strong in Stage 5, is an exception. Compared to his rivals, I like him even more on a flatter gradient; when other climbers lose a lot of explosiveness, he still packs a nice punch. If the long day and final climb whittle the group down, Evans is a great bet. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego is another contender among the General Classification riders as the road evens out, especially if teammate Ulissi goes missing. Daniel Moreno, who might be favored here, continues to show that it’s all for Joaquim Rodriguez in this race. Purito will likely be at the front of the bunch in the Stage 6 finish, but I don’t think it’s steep enough for him to be a favorite; Stage 5 ended on a tougher gradient and he was only 7th on the day. Rigoberto Uran looked very sharp on Stage 5, but like Purito, I think he only has an outside chance on this flatter run-in. The same is true for Trek’s Julian Arredondo, who has been so great so far in 2014; I love his explosiveness and was very impressed by his Stage 5 performance, but this climb just isn’t particularly steep, especially not towards the top. Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka and, AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo can also turn on the jets if they see an opportunity. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them trying to attack somewhere on this climb, along with the likes of Pierre Rolland, Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Landa or Fabio Aru, but I think they’ll have a hard time getting much distance at this gradient.

A number of punchy specialists will hope to feature after giving way to a group mostly made up of star climbers on Stage 5, though if you read the preview for that stage you probably won’t be surprised by the names I’ve got on my mind for this one, as it’s a very similar list. Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto was caught up in a crash on the fifth stage; the winner of the 2012 Amstel Gold Race likely sees this profile as another great opportunity. Trek’s Fabio Felline was another crash-slowed would-be Stage 5 contender who will try his chances again on Stage 6. Cannondale has a wealth of options for these profiles, including Oscar Gatto, Moreno Moser, and Daniele Ratto. Neri-Sottoli has a nice pair of options in Simone Ponzi and Matteo Rabottini. Pieter Serry of OPQS could give it a go, or teammate Gianluca Brambilla could try for another long one. Giant’s Simon Geschke could fare a bit better with the road flattening out late. As a final note, Garmin’s Nathan Haas spent Stage 5 clearly suffering from his spate of crashes in this race; it’s a shame, because I think he would be a great outsider here if only he were in better health.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Cadel Evans

The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 7 will be up not long after the Stage 6 finish. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 14, 2014