Category: Race Previews

Stage 8: Villalpando › La Camperona – 181.5km

Finally, the Vuelta serves up a real mountain stage. Unfortunately, the first 170 kilometers are featureless, with the Cat. 1 finale the only climb on the menu.

In other words, don’t expect much action until the final half hour of the day. At least the Alto de la Camperona is an interesting climb. Overall, it’s 8.5km at 7.4%, but the difficulty really ratchets up after 3.5km. There’s a 25% section leading into the fourth kilometer of the ascent, followed by a brief flat stretch, and then it’s about 3.5km of mostly double digit gradients all the way to the top, with several sections over 20%.

Stage 8 will be a crucial GC day for sure, though whether the stage win comes down the red jersey hopefuls or the breakers is harder to say. All things considered I’d give the GC men a slight advantage on the first real GC day of the race, but it’ll be close.

If it is the overall contenders leading the way at the finish, there are four names I see as worthy of favorite status: Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde, Esteban Chaves, and Nairo Quintana—in that order.

Froome has a tendency to look for opportunities to get ahead early, and this certainly is one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall out of the GC group somewhere midway up the climb and then storm back to the lead near the top. In peak form, he’s head and shoulders above the competition, and even in Vuelta form he’s dangerous.

So is Alejandro Valverde, who has been winning the early stages of the battle among the top contenders so far in the race. This stage will be a real test of form, but he’s shown plenty up to this point, enough that I favor him over Quintana among the Movistar riders. Quintana has the talent, but he has been quiet thus far in the Vuelta. Esteban Chaves has been the more impressive Colombian through the first week.

Alberto Contador is obviously one to watch as well, but the nasty fall he took in Stage 7 makes him a bit less likely as a favorite in my eyes. Darwin Atapuma, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Leopold König, and Simon Yates are all candidates for success as well, though it’d be a surprise if they can outmuscle the likes of Froome and Valverde.

Among the potential long-range protagonists, José Goncalves, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Rubén Fernández, and Igor Anton all stand out, though it’s anyone’s guess who actually makes it up the road on a stage like this.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves

Stage 7: Maceda › Puebla de Sanabria – 158.5km

Another day at the Vuelta, another hilly-but-not-too-hilly profile. Stage 7, just like the last several days, could very easily go to the early break or a late move. It could also go to one of the several fast finishers on the start list with decent climbing legs.

The late Cat. 3 isn’t particularly intimidating, but it is followed by a long descent. That will give any attackers (either from an early break or in a late move) a nice shot to stay clear as the sprint teams take time getting organized.

Still, there are a few teams with versatile speedsters on the roster, enough to motivate the bunch to chase—as such, it’s probably worth starting with the likes of Gianni Meersman.

He’s proven to be the rider to beat in the sprints in this Vuelta, and he’s got a great skillset for this sort of stage. It’s up to team cooperation to make this a sprint, but he’s deserving of favorite status in that scenario.

Fabio Felline is another rider capable of surviving the parcours and getting into the mix in a sprint. Trek also has Niccolo Bonifazio, giving the team two great options.

Kristian Sbaragli, Tosh Van der Sande, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Nikias Arndt are other candidates for a sprint.

Philippe Gilbert is one to watch on that last climb. Punchy as he is, this a great profile for him, and he’s got the speed to win a reduced sprint.

The same could be said for Alejandro Valverde. He’s looked very strong in this race. He’s not a candidate from the early break like Gilbert might be, but he’ll be deadly if there aren’t many riders left by the time the bunch pulls into the final 25km.

José Goncalves, Luis León Sánchez, Simon Clarke, and Zdenek Stybar are others to keep an eye on in an attacking scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert

Stage 6: Monforte de Lemos › Luintra – 163.2km

Before the Vuelta began, I expected Stage 6 to be the first breakaway day in the race. Now it’s set to be the third.

The profile is perfectly suited for the long-range attackers, with no super-hard climbs but plenty of up and down. There’s only one categorized climb, a Cat. 2 that begins at kilometer 105, but it’s followed by two more uncategorized lumps likely to make it tough for the sprinters to stay involved. That, coupled with a finish that shouldn’t have much of a GC impact, should reduce the impetus of the peloton to chase.

The hardest thing about previewing this stage is trying to predict who will be in the break. Several names come to mind as likely long-range hopefuls, and a few others come to mind as strong contenders who at least have the potential of getting into the move.

Philippe Gilbert seems as good a place as any to start. He showed both form and motivation attacking the peloton at the end of Stage 5, and this stage profile suits him well. He can win a reduced sprint if he’s in the lead group at the right time.

So can Fabio Felline. This is a great profile for the Italian. It also suits his Trek teammate Kiel Reijnen.

I’m expecting Caja Rural to be very active in Stage 6. They have multiple options, with Jose Goncalves and Pello Bilbao standing out the most to me. It’s never easy to predict which Caja Rural rider will be in a break, but you can be assured they’ll try to get someone up the road.

The long list of possible candidates who might win this stage from afar (or from the peloton, for that matter) also includes: Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke, Jan Bakelants, and Enrico Battaglin.

Should this come down to the bunch after all, beware the versatile Gianni Meersman, who is on fire in this race. If he’s not there at the finish though, Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski are riders who might be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Jose Goncalves