Category: Race Previews

UCI World Championship Individual Time Trial 2013 Preview

A World-class Race of Truth

After a year on Tony Martin’s back, the rainbow jersey of the time trialing world champ is up for grabs again in Florence. But what a year it’s been for the German, who won eight time trials across the stage races he’s taken on (including a win ahead of Chris Froome in the Mont St. Michel chrono in the Tour de France). Following so much success, Tony Martin will look defend his title, but competition will be fierce from a select few rivals: I see Martin as one of four riders with the potential to take the victory in 2013. The other three are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, and Taylor Phinney.

It’s close, but if I had to pick I’d favor Martin to repeat. He’s just shown an ability on another level this year, and this course suits him well: not much to speak of in the way of hills, just 50 kilometers of road for him to dominate with his otherworldly endurance. This weekend, he led Omega Pharma – Quick Step to a repeat world title in the TTT, and he’s had a year full of success. Really, the only chronos he’s lost have been prologue length or lumpy: most notably, Stage 11 in the Vuelta a Espana, which he lost to Fabian Cancellara by 37. It was a 38.8km affair with a categorized climb in the middle, which favored the Swiss star, and there will be no such complications in Florence.

Still, Cancellara is a four time world champ in this discipline coming off a two-Monument-winning year. He was on fire in the spring, and he rounded nicely back into form for his run-up to this race, winning the ITT in the Tour of Austria and, as has already been noted, in the Vuelta, where he also came close to a few non TT stage wins. He might prefer a hill or two (to put Martin and Phinney off their games), but he’s definitely got a lot of form right now.

Cancellara was smoked, however, in the recent Tour de Pologne time trial… by a resurgent Bradley Wiggins (Phinney took third in that event). Wiggins shook up his schedule this year to take on the Giro, where he put in a very strong ITT performance on stage 8. He probably would have won that stage had he not sprung a flat tire during his run; as it stood he was only 10 seconds behind the leader, Alex Dowsett. After withdrawing from the Giro, he went dark for a while, before showing up to dominate the ITT in Poland. It wasn’t a flat course, and Florence is, but the way Wiggins blew away the competition there inspires confidence in his ability right now, and he’s shown in his career that when he puts his mind to a goal, it’s hard to deny him. He comes into the World Champs having just won the Tour of Britain on the back of his ITT stage win.

Despite barely missing out on the rainbow jersey in last year’s WC ITT (he was a mere 6 seconds behind Martin) Taylor Phinney has little data to give us in terms of his TTing form: he’s only done three ITTs this year, and one of them he attempted while not-healthy (during the Giro, for which he was ultimately a DNF). He’s something of a wildcard, but the course suits him very well: the former Individual Pursuit World Champ is a big rider (1.96 meters, 82 kg) with a massive engine, and he thrives on flat, track-like courses. He knows this one well. I don’t see his 6th place in the short, not-flat Eneco Tour ITT or his 3rd place in the lumpy ITT in Poland as clear signs of being off form: his fantastic Tour de Pologne victory displayed just how good he is at soloing on a flat right now.

It’s hard to see past any of these four names for the gold, or even for the podium, but the other contenders include Italy’s Adriano Malori (3rd last year), his compatriot Marco Pinotti, the UK’s Alex Dowsett, last year’s U23 silver medalist Rohan Dennis, fellow Australian Richie Porte, former World Champ Bert Grabsch, Belarus’s Vasil Kiryienka, France’s Sylvain Chavanel (who won an Eneco Tour ITT in which Wiggins and Phinney were somewhat disappointing), Belgian Thomas De Gendt, and Jonathan Castroviejo of Spain.

Whoever nabs the rainbow jersey tomorrow will have defeated some serious talent on the way, and will deserve the 365 days of glory that come with the victory.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Tony Martin

Podium

Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara

Top 10

Taylor Phinney, Adriano Malori, Richie Porte, Vasil Kiryienka, Sylvain Chavanel, Rohan Dennis, Marco Pinotti

-Dane Cash

Photo by Goldene-Speichen.de.

September 25, 2013
UCI World Championship Team Time Trial 2013 Preview

Team Rainbows

Ostensibly, I preview every WorldTour race here at VeloHuman, and the TTT at the UCI World Champs in Florence is technically a WT race, so I’m putting out a quick write-up, though I’m going to keep it brief. The route is pretty straightforward. The course is 50.3 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence, and it isn’t hilly: team time trials are already perhaps the discipline in pro cycling least likely to offer surprise winners, and the World Champs course isn’t going to change that.

The biggest favorite is Omega Pharma – Quick Step, who won the event last year and bring another powerhouse team this year, led by current ITT world champ Tony Martin. Backed up by Sylvain Chavanel, Michal Kwiatkowski, Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Kristoff Vandewalle, they are the squad to beat: no weak links here, and no steep ascents or nasty descents to throw them off their game. Main challengers like Sky, Orica-GreenEdge, and BMC will have their work cut out for them. Sky’s got a big team here as well, despite the absence of Bradley Wiggins. Sky and OGE both have lineups very similar to their well-performing Tour de France teams (in the Stage 4 TTT of the Tour de France, Orica-GreenEdge narrowly defeated OPQS by less than one second, and Sky was just moments behind). BMC, on the other hand, has Taylor Phinney (2nd in the ITT World Champs last year) leading the way. Just as Phinney was runner-up to Martin in the individual event in 2012, his team was runner-up to Martin’s in the team event, and by a very narrow margin (three seconds), too. They’ll be out for revenge.

Other contenders include Garmin-Sharp (a squad mixing wiley veterans and young up-and-comers like Andrew Talansky) and RadioShack Leopard (led by four time ITT champ Fabian Cancellara, and strong performers in the Vuelta team time trial). Behind this pair, the odds get much longer: Astana, Belkin, and Movistar each have solid teams here, but I don’t think they’ll be able to put up times like OPQS and Sky will. Saxo-Tinkoff and Lotto-Belisol might outperform expectations.

Overperforming and defeating Omega Pharma at their bread and butter will be a tall task. I think a few times might surprise, but the winner will come from a very select pool of challengers.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Omega Pharma – Quick Step

Podium

Sky, BMC

Top 10

Orica-GreenEdge, Belkin, Astana, Saxo-Tinkoff, Lotto-Belisol, RadioShack Leopard, Garmin-Sharp

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm.

September 22, 2013
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal 2013 Preview

WorldTouring in North America, Chapter 2

The WorldTour’s three most recent one-day winners: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, and now, Robert Gesink. One or two years ago, this set of winners might have seemed totally predictable, but in 2013? It’s as if all of these guys who have been flying under the radar decided to reenter the scene in grand style at the same time. Belkin has had a great week, with Bauke Mollema stealing a stage from the power sprinters at the Vuelta, and Robert Gesink outsprinting Peter Sagan himself in Quebec. As closely as the two are tied together, and as often as they share common riders in their leaderboards, GP Quebec is an important foreshadower for GP Montreal.

That race came down to a very reduced sprint with some marquee names, guys we expected to be right there, like Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, and Rui Costa. Things pretty much went as expected, right up to the point where Robert Gesink (with Arthut Vichot not far behind) passed all those pre-race favorites for the victory. Obviously Gesink is a major talent (he won Montreal in 2010 and was 2nd at Quebec in 2012), but 1. his Palmares have been so lacking lately, and 2. his career resume hasn’t really shown any evidence of a high caliber sprinting ability: with a kilometer to go and Tom Jelte Slagter also with the lead group, I wouldn’t have even picked Gesink to be the highest placed rider from his own team, let alone in the whole race. But while Sagan and Van Avermaet seemed just too exhausted to keep up on the ascent to the line, Gesink powered ahead and took a commanding win. With a career that primarily features results in climber’s races, Gesink seemed like a better pick (albeit an outside one) to get involved in Montreal; if this is the kind of form he’s got right now, and if he’s suddenly realized that he has a heck of a sprint within him, he goes from a worthy-of-a-mention-as-a-past-winner pick to one of the favorites for the second of the Canadian WorldTour dates.

Like its sister race, the Grand Prix Cycliste Montreal has a profile that provides great opportunities for successful attacks on the final lap. Unlike its sister race, Montreal’s big climbs come earlier in the circuit (Côte Camilien-Houde, 1.8 km at 8%, and Côte de la Polytechnque, 0.78 km at 6&), and they’re followed by several kms of gentle descent, and the finish in Montreal, while uphill, is only a few hundreds meters at a few percent grade, rather than a long upward drag: in other words, the race favors attackers who can go from much further out, and it also is friendlier than Quebec was to any sprinters who beat the odds and manage to stay up front. Last year, Lars Petter Nordhaug (then of Team Sky, now of Belkin) made a move from several kilometers out. Rui Costa in 2011 and Robert Gesink in the inaugural edition in 2011 also made moves from several kilometers out.

Gesink’s sprint is what surprised everyone on Friday; we’ve always known he could climb and put in a sustained effort. It’s those skills that won him this race in 2010, and now that we know he’s got quite a kick, he’s got a great shot again here. But Sagan will be out to improve on his placing from Quebec, as will Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa, and up-and-comer Arthur Vichot, all of whom finished with the lead group not very far behind Gesink in Quebec. Costa won this thing two years ago and he’s my favorite rider to launch a successful long attack, but he’s also got the kick to outsprint a reduced group. FDJ’s Vichot has had a fine year, runner-up yesterday and French national champion not long ago; he was also in the mix in the finale at Quebec last year and like Costa, he’s got a varied skillset and could either make an early jump or hang with a small group. I like his chances. Sagan and Van Avermaet might find it harder to come across with the lead bunch or to launch a big attack early, as the higher altitude hills in Montreal are likely to break up the race on the final laps, but if they do, the finish suits them more than it did in Quebec. I’ll throw out some familiar names of real fastmen who will also appreciate the finish if they can just make it there at the head of the race: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, Giacomo Nizzolo, Matti Breschel, Matt Goss, and Luka Mezgec are the biggest ones for me. The way Degenkolb has been going, I think it’s a real possibility he is in the final group chasing down the final break, and Breschel was, of course, in the top 10 in Quebec on Friday.

Should the truer sprinters all be dropped, I’d imagine the danger men in the pack pursuing the last breakers will include: Tom-Jelte Slagter of Belkin, Fabian Wegmann of Garmin-Sharp, Jan Bakelants and Tony Gallopin of Radioshack, Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Jurgen Roelandts of Lotto Belisol, Bjorn Leukemans of Vacansoleil, Francesco Gavazzi, Simone Ponzi, and Borut Bozic of Astana, and Francisco Ventoso of Movistar.

But since this is a race with a pretty serious incline in the circuit that will tire out everyone in the field and will surely launch some bids for glory, perhaps the most important question will be: who launches the marquee attack as the race nears its finish? If it’s not one of the riders mentioned above, last year’s winner Lars Petter Nordhaug seems like a great place to start. Recent results have been lacking, though, so the top alternative choices include Pierrick Fedrigo (2nd behind Costa in 2011), Ryder Hesjedal (3rd in 2010), Niki Terpstra (who was off the front until the end on Friday, finishing 6th), Alexander Kolobnev, Simon Geschke, Enrico Gasparotto, Sylvain Chavanel, Simon Spilak, and Christophe Riblon and Cadel Evans, who led the chasers over the line behind Sagan at GP Quebec. OGE’s stable of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Sebastian Langeveld, and Cameron Meyer and Euskaltel’s squad of climbers, like the Izagirre brothers, are also great bets to animate the race from a distance. Evans and Hesjedal seem the most motivated of the Grand Tour stars here, but any one of Froome, Contador, Porte, Schleck, Talansky and van Garderen might decide to go for a long one as well.

However it goes down, long distance attack or late catch and pass by a bunch, I think the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is going to end with many of the same names from Friday towards the front, riders who combine a strong kick with an aggressive style and a whole lot of endurance.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Jelte-Slagter, John Degenkolb, Arthur Vichot, Matti Breschel, Jurgen Roelandts, Niki Terpstra

-Dane Cash

Photo by O. Taillon.

September 15, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 21: Where We Stand After Nineteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 20-21

Day 21: Angliru Awaits

When the Vuelta organizers decided to put the Alto de L’Angliru on the penultimate stage, they were obviously hoping (against the odds) that the Tour of Spain would come down to an epic showdown on one of the sport’s most famous climbs. When Nibali’s Astana squad took a commanding early lead, it appeared that this race was all but wrapped up, but Christopher Horner has seemed to gain seconds on the favorite basically every time the road has gone up at the finish. Somehow, the 41 year old American closed the early gap, then lost time in the individual time trial, and now has closed the gap again. He and Nibali finished together with the group on Stage 17, which Bauke Mollema won with a brilliant long range sprint that caught some big fastmen by surprise. Horner crossed the line well ahead of the Italian on Stage 18, behind breakaway survivor Vasil Kiriyenka (who put in a massive solo effort that Sky will be proud of). Earlier today, Horner reclaimed the red jersey by just seconds when a small gap formed at the stage finish (behind the day’s winner, Joaquim Rodriguez, whose team was motivated enough to pull back a breakaway that everyone thoguht would succeed). In the past few days, he’s just been a better climber, plain and simple, and throughout this race he’s had the explosive flair to gain time at the line (an ability that has nabbed him two stage wins so far). Nibali, on the other hand, has appeared to lose a step in the past few days. In fact, even Rodriguez and Valverde have gained a little on the Giro winner: his once seemingly unassailable lead has totally crumbled. It all comes down to tomorrow, when the peloton takes on perhaps its most daunting challenge.

Stage 20: Aviles > Alto de L’Angliru | 142.2km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The stage is short but brutal: 142.2 kilometers, but with a succession of climbs that get progressively harder and harder. A Category 3 is followed by a Cat. 2 right around the halfway point. Then the riders will take on the very steep Alto del Cordal, a Category 1 climb, whose summit is only 8.2 kilometers from the foot of the final ascent of the Vuelta, Alto de L’Angliru. It’s one of the most famous mountains in the sport, and one of the most demanding: 12.2 kilometers at an incredible 10.2%, grading out at a maximum of 23.5% not far from the top. Apart from a tiny blip where the road dips slighly down for a hundred meters or so a few kilometers up (a section that is followed by a stretch at 21%), there is really no respite anywhere on this monster until you get to the top. The roads are windy and narrow. And the riders will be taking this beast on after a hard, high-speed day up and over some serious climbs. It’s not for the faint of heart. The long, unrelenting drag does not make it easy to attack. It’s the sort of test that requires a massive tank: this is a mountain about which former pro Patrice Halgand said that “on the Angliru the guys go too pitifully for the climb to have any sporting interest. Even the winner goes up in slow motion. There’s no attacking. From front to rear, everyone just gets up as best he can.”

Nibali’s recent fading makes predicting this stage quite difficult. On the one hand, the stage favors Nibali’s skillset more than many of the shorter, more explosive finishes that we’ve seen so far, but on the other hand, the past few days don’t instill any confidence in Vincenzo Nibali’s ability to pull this one out. Bookmakers seem to be favoring all three of Horner, Rodriguez, and Valverde over him for the stage win. If I had to make a prediction (and I do, since this is a preview!) I do think it will come down to a field of the GC contenders and a select group of star climbers who stay with them rather than an early breakaway, but I also think that Nibali’s chances are being underrated. Sustained uphill effort is Nibali’s bread and butter. It’s what won him the Giro. He also has his elite squad of lieutenants on a day where the pace will be high, while Horner has lost two of his strongest teammates, Fabian Cancellara and Haimar Zubeldia. In other words, I won’t write Nibali off so easily. But I think Horner will be right there: he’s been unflappable so far and he’s passed every test he’s faced, even if this test is in a class of its own. I expect Rodriguez to make moves and I expect Valverde to try to counter, though Purito has looked really strong. I don’t see any of the rest of the top 10 finishing ahead of them. I do think that Igor Anton, Diego Ulissi, Rigoberto Uran, or Michele Scarponi could be allowed to go ahead for the stage win: Anton’s come very close here before, and Scarponi and Ulissi have looked good lately. Uran seems to be picking his battles, and Horner has shown the value of fresh legs in this race, wearing red in his first Grand Tour of the year while the rest of the GC favorites struggle to maintain their form across multiple three-week challenges. Mikel Nieve, Jose Herrada, Chris Anker Sorensen and Rafal Majka, and, of course, Warren Barguil could also try to strike ahead for glory with a legitimate shot at the victory, either from an early breakaway (probably less likely to win) or from the pack at the start of the climb.

This is the stage that will decide the Vuelta, so it’s a must-see. I never thought I’d be considering Chris Horner the favorite to win on L’Angliru and to therefore win the whole race, but here we are. Hopefully the rest of the contenders can keep it interesting.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Chris Horner | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Alejandro Valverde

Stage 21: Leganes > Madrid | 109.6km | Flat

After they climb one of the hardest mountains out there, the riders get to end their Vuelta with a less-than-110-kilometer parade to the finish in Madrid. It is, as they say, as flat as a pancake. Hard to see this ending any other way than with a bunch sprint.It may seem a bit less climactic than the previous day’s GC showdown, but there are some very quick men who have waited three weeks for this perfectly flat day guaranteed to go to a sprinter. Denied by late attackers on multiple days that seemed guaranteed to be sprint-fests, a few of the fastest ones still have yet to win a stage this race: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Maximiliano Richeze, and Tyler Farrar. They finished in that order behind a surprising Bauke Mollema on stage 17. Boasson Hagen has been hell-bent on winning a stage recently, jumping into break after break. Richeze has consistently looked like one of the fastest guys out there. And, of course, Tyler Farrar has actually won the final stage of the Vuelta before. Meanwhile, Michael Matthews, who looked so hot at the start of the race, and who won the 5th stage, and Gianni Meersman, who came in as perhaps the sprinter most favored to win at least one stage seemhave faded a bit, but Matthews showed awesome top end speed just two weeks ago, and Meersman has been close a bunch of times (and has taken big wins against some big names this year). Maybe Michael Morkov’s earlier win was a flash in the pan, but his track racing style will appreciate the lack of selective climbs on the final stage. Guys like Adrien Petit, Robert Wagner, Anthony Roux, Luca Paolini, Paul Voss, Grega Bole and Juan Antonio Flecha, Leigh Howard if OGE actually decides to support him instead of Matthews, and either member of the Argos duo of Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt are the outsider picks, but I think it will be hard for an outsider pick to take it in the finale. Eddy Bos and Richeze are probably my favorites, and since I have to give the nod to someone, I’ll give it to the experienced, proven winner from Norway, though I think it’s a really close call here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Maximiliano Richeze | 3. Tyler Farrar | 4. Michael Matthews

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mikel Ortega.

September 14, 2013
Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec 2013 Preview

WorldTouring in North America, Chapter 1

The WorldTour follows up GP Ouest France with two more Grand Prix circuit-style races this weekend, also run on hilly courses that seem to lead to battles between late attacekrs and hard-charging pursuit groups. This weekend’s competitions are unique among WorldTour races, however, in that they take place in North America. Canada, to be exact.

Friday’s race comprises 16 laps of 12.6km (totalling 201.6km) around scenic Old Quebec. It has a number of rolling ups and downs and it finishes on an incline; obviously, there are no Alpine summits in the middle of Quebec City, but the ascents are more than enough to encourage constant aggressive moves off the front, and even if attacks are reeled in, the incline at the line favors the lighter, more versatile hard-chargers. Last year, Simon Gerrans and Greg Van Avermaet jumped ahead in the final lap, and hung on despite a spirited bridging attempt by Peter Sagan and an impressive (and sizeable) group of pursuers behind them, a group that was led across the line by Rui Costa. Going further back, we see similar outcomes. The hard pace of the 2011 edition whittled the lead group down to a group of about ten on the final lap, and Philippe Gilbert added another victory to his great list that year by launching a successful attack with Robert Gesink in the final kilometers, and then beating the Dutchman to the line. The inaugural edition in 2010 saw Tommy Voeckler make a successful bid for glory. Given the versatile talents in attendance, I think this year’s Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec will again come down to a late attack battling a small group of chasers, though a sizable bunch sprint for the line isn’t out of the question, and while I think it’s a bit less likely, neither is a long-range breakaway victory.

None of this race’s past winners will make the start tomorrow, meaning that 2013 will see a new winner in Quebec. One favorite for that title stands above the rest: Cannondale’s Peter Sagan. After a successful classics campaign in which he nabbed a win at Gent-Wevelgem and a boatload of other high placings, he stormed the Tour de France green jersey competition. But he hasn’t been resting on his laurels: he’s been a prominent feature in some big American stage races, winning stages and the points competition at the USA Pro Cycling Challenge. He has clearly kept his form sharp, and with so many opportunities to tune up at the AmericaTour level in preparation for the big doubleheader in Canada this weekend, it’s hard to see past him. As he showed in Gent-Wevelgem, he’s more than capable of winning via a late attack. He came close to bridging the gap last year, and this year he’s got that much more experience, and probably better form. He’s a smart rider and a excellent handler, which will come in handy in the constant quest to come out of the corners at high speed. He’s shown time and again this year that all but the most difficult of climbs are not a problem for him, making it very likely that he’ll be somewhere near the front towards the end of this race. Whether he attacks off the front or outsprints the field, Sagan has the tools to win this thing.

He’ll have a big target on his back, and his challengers will be many. One rider who has been just behind Sagan at a number of races this year is Greg Van Avermaet, who has looked sharp through his many appearances this summer. He attacked on the final climb of the GP Ouest France, but the break refused to organize themselves: GVA himself seemed to be the most concerned with dragging other riders to the finish and, therefore, wouldn’t work with a group. As such, he didn’t start with enough of a gap when he launched his own solo from the reduced bunch, and was caught in the final few hundred meters. He’ll hope to have a bit more success in Quebec, where he narrowly lost out to Simon Gerrans last year. Like Sagan, his skillset makes him a danger in both a late attack and a reduced sprint; he’s not as quick as the Slovakian wunderkind, but he might be a bit more likely to make a move, which showed last year.

Also in that last-ditch move on the final climb of Ouest France was Michal Kwiatkowski, who was a familiar face on most of the intermediate stages where Sagan featured so prominently in the Tour de France. Had the final break managed to work together two weeks ago, he would have been a strong contender for the win. He’s a better climber than Sagan, but still has a great sprint. His teammate Sylvain Chavanel has earned himself a ton of camera time time this year with his characteristic aggressive riding, and his time trial victory at the Eneco Tour shows that the 34 year old is still soloing well this year. He’ll probably need to strike earlier than guys like Sagan or Van Avermaet, but if he can time an attack, he’s always a good bet to feature on a profile like this.

Rui Costa has had a lot of success in Canada (he was just behind Van Avermaet last year), and he has the perfect combination of skills to win in a variety of ways. He showed off that combination of skills by winning two stages from a breakaway in the Tour de France; he can solo, he can climb better than most other riders in this race, and he has a surprising sprint. He’ll definitely be lurking around the top of the leaderboard. His teammate Francisco Ventoso is another rider with a shot, coming off a top 10 in Ouest France.

Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Roelandts, Belkin’s Lars Petter Nordhaug (who won last year’s Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal) and Tom Jelte Slagter (fifth here last year), Cannondale’s Moreno Moser, Astana’s trio of Francesco Gavazzi, Borut Bozic, and Simon Ponzi, and Radioshack’s trio of Tony Gallopin (winner of the Clasica de San Sebastian), Jan Bakelants (Tour de France stage winner) and Maxime Monfort are all also great candidates for a win from a late attack or a very reduced field sprint.

If a larger bunch reaches the finish line, it will be hard to beat Sagan in a sprint, but John Degenkolb of Argos-Shimano and Giacomo Nizzolo of Radioshack (they have a lot of options here!) are on the shortlist of riders who have a decent shot at it. Degenkolb went into the Vattenfall Cyclassics as something of an unknown in terms of form, and all he did was win the whole thing. He showed continued form at the GP Ouest France, where he, too, managed to get into the late attack of Van Avermaet and Kwiatkowski (and was probably the prime reason that the breakaway attempt refused to cooperate), quite a feat for a sprinter. He then proceeded to place tenth in the sprint after putting out a lot of effort in the failed attempt to break free. He won’t mind the uphill finish in Quebec. Neither will Giacomo Nizzolo, who looks great right now, and who came so close to a win at Ouest France, but was denied at the line by a charging Filippo Pozzato. Speaking of Pozzato, I almost didn’t mention him in my Ouest France preview, given a lack of recent results, and I’m still not really sure how to judge his chances here: was his Ouest France win a flash in the pan, or is his form back to where it once was? Matti Breschel of Saxo-Tinkoff was a top 10 finisher at the Vattenfall Cyclassics and is a capable climber. Look out for Luka Mezgec, who was just behind Sagan in a bunch of stages in Alberta and the USAPCC and who could be a second option for Argos if Degenkolb struggles. And, of course, Matt Goss will be in attendance, though he was 27th at Vattenfall’s sprintfest and a DNF in the GP Ouest France.

A number of big name Grand Tour winners are making the start, probably looking to go for a long one, launching off one of the many hills they’ll ascend in their trips around Quebec: Ryder Hesjedal, Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Cadel Evans, and even Andy Schleck are all here. Sky also has Richie Porte, Garmin also has Andrew Talansky, Tom Danielson, and Fabian Wegman (Top 10 in every edition of this race so far), and BMC’s Tejay van Garderen gives that team yet another option. Of these big three-week stars, Hesjedal and Evans are probably most likely to feature; Hesjedal doesn’t really have any one-day statement wins in his career yet, but he’s had a flair for high placings and he has a strong kick: plus, this is a home race for him, which is rare. Evans has shown decent form since arriving in Canada (he won a stage at the Tour of Alberta) and he has always had a good sprint if he makes it to the line with a small lead group. Other riders who will look for a long distance opportunity, or hope that the fast men are all dropped, include Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Simon Spilak, AG2R’s Christophe Riblon and Jean-Christophe Peraud, Pierrick Fedrigo, OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, Astana’s Enrico Gasparatto, everyone on Euskaltel, and Orica GreenEdge’s typical stable of breakaway capable talent: Michael Albasini, Sebastian Langeveld, Pieter Weening, and Cameron Meyer. Also, watch out for Europcar’s David Veilleux, riding in his home country and having just announced an imminent retirement.

However it plays out, I think the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec is going to be another very exciting race, guaranteeing plenty of attacks and counterattacks to give you a double dose of high speed racing after a morning that will likely offer the same from Spain!

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa

Top 10

Michal Kwiatkowski, John Degenkolb, Giacomo Nizzolo, Ryder Hesjedal, Sylvain Chavanel, Jurgen Roelandts, Filippo Pozzato

-Dane Cash

Photo by Arnaud Anciaux.

September 12, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Day 18: Where We Stand After Sixteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 17-19

Day 18: GC Shaping Up

The trip to the Pyrenees whittled an already thin list of true contenders down even further. With just three uphill finishes remaining, only three riders are within two and a half minutes of Vincenzo Nibali: Christopher Horner, Alejandro Valverde, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Breakaway riders took impressive victories on Stages 14 (Daniele Ratto), 15 (Alexandre Geniez), and 16 (Warren Barguil again). Attrition dropped Nicolas Roche from his spot near the top (he now sits 3:43 back on Nibali after a trying Stage 14) and it dropped Ivan Basso and many others out of the race entirely on a rainy, cold Stage 15 that saw mass abandons. On Stage 16, as the GC contenders rolled in behind Barguil and Rigoberto Uran (who lost out to Barguil in a photo finish), Nibali looked vulnerable for the first time, losing a little over twenty seconds to his rivals. After the rest day, the road from Calahorra to Burgos provides only on a pair of Cat. 3 climbs, giving Nibali a bit more time to get back any strength he might be missing before the arduous trip from Burgos to the Peña Cabarga, and then the lumpy stage that prefaces the road to l’Angliru.

Stage 17: Calahorra > Burgos | 189km | Medium Mountains

While there are only two categorized climbs, there is a good deal of upward travel in the first 140 kilometers of the stage. The last few days have been for aggressive attackers, and surely Stage 17 will see riders striking out for the long one; but it’s been a long time since the sprinters had a chance to be on camera, and those who have made it this far will fight hard to bring back anyone up the road. The last several kilometers are techinical and include a short but steep spur that will invite further aggression. Michael Matthews and Maximiliano Richeze have looked the strongest to the line so far in this race, if it comes to a bunch sprint. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman, and Fabian Cancellara are strong options as well, given their combined sprinting and soloing abilities. Boasson Hagen’s Team Sky came so close to a victory in Stage 16, and Eddy Bos himself was barely pipped to the line by Philippe Gilbert earlier in the Vuelta; he’ll be highly motivated and he’s very capable in this sort of finish. Juan Antonio Flecha has been a common sight at the Vuelta’s sprint finishes, though he hasn’t come that close to actually winning anything. This finish suits him as well as any.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Maximiliano Richeze | 4. Fabian Cancellara

Stage 18: Burgos > Peña Cabarga | 186km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

The road out of Burgos is much more demanding than the road in. It goes up and over a trio of Category 3s and a hard Cat. 2, and then finishes atop the Peña Cabarga. The summit has seen fireworks before (future Tour de France winner Chris Froome bested Juan Jose Cobo here in 2011). It’s an extremely difficult, 6 km push at an average of 9.2%, and a 20% section in the final kilometer will surely see gaps form late if they haven’t already. With so many lumps early, this stage could be another for a breakaway, as the GC strongmen haven’t seemed too concerned with the prospect of hunting down early breakers. If that happens, watch out for Rigoberto Uran, who was so close to a victory in Stage 16. Amets Txurruka will probably have another go at it, as might Chris Anker Sorensen. Diego Ulissi has been a bit quiet lately, but after some rest, he might have the strength to challenge for the stage victory. Igor Anton, currently in 15th, will probably be allowed up the road if he attacks on the final climb, and he’s managed to keep pace with the GC heavyweights over the last few days, showing great form.

Whether their battles will come behind a successful breakaway is hard to say, but the fight among the red jersey contenders will be fierce. Having smelled blood on Stage 16, Nibali’s rivals will look for a chance to test him again here. The steepness would seem to favor Joaquim Rodriguez. Alejandro Valverde looked good attempting to chase him down on the last day in the Pyrenees. Thibaut Pinot has been very impressive of late, and his fresher legs appear to be paying off. Samuel Sanchez has been coming on strong. Chris Horner looks unbelievable going uphill, and he’s had the help of a very strong Robert Kiserlovski. Nicolas Roche cracked on stage 14, but on Stages 15 and 16 he was looking sharp again. The relatively short length of the climb will not favor Nibali’s climbing style, so he’d better be rested and ready to fight.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Igor Anton | 3. Rigoberto Uran | 4. Christopher Horner

Stage 19: San Vicente de la Barquera > Alto del Naranco | 181km | Medium Mountains

A relatively flat first half gives way to a very lumpy second half: this stage will favor an aggressive, punchy rider with a lot of pop still in his legs after so many miles already traveled through Spain. The day finishes with a roughly 6 km, 4.2% average grade Cat. 2, Alto del Naranco: not tough enough to open up big time gaps in GC, but more than tough enough to put a hard hitting climber in line for the victory. Warren Barguil has to be in the conversation again. Rinaldo Nocentini has come close in a few stages (2nd to Barguil in Stage 13), and the explosive French rider will look to stand out among a field that has been reduced by the tough hills and tough weather by this late point. Bauke Mollema was right behind him on that stage and will be hoping to salvage something from this Grand Tour, and he is a hard finisher uphill. Uran and Ulissi will again be aiming to put their explosiveness to good use. Uran’s teammate Sergio Henao and Lampre’s Michele Scarponi (who has been very active in breakaways recently) could see an opportunity here, and Amets Txurruka will definitely look to be involved in any breakaway proceedings. Should the peloton reach the final climb together, the Katusha duo of Daniel Moreno and Joaquim Rodriguez will try to best Alejandro Valverde for the day’s victory, and Samuel Sanchez will be gunning for the line as well. Chris Horner has basically attacked on every summit finish, and he could do so again here. Ivan Santaromita, Mikel Landa, and Pieter Serry are other outsiders for the stage win, whether from the breakaway or the peloton.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Rigoberto Uran | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Bauke Mollema | 4. Warren Barguil

September 11, 2013