VeloHuman

Category: Race Previews

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

    OPQS TTT

    Day 0: Starting with a Bang

    No easing into this one. The Vuelta opens with a team time trial and back-to-back steep uphill finishes. That means the contenders will have to be on their game from the moment they clip in on the first stage. I’ve already covered most of “where we stand” in my comprehensive race preview, so let’s get to it.

    Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

    VS1

    It isn’t a long team time trial, and it’s not hilly either. Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be hoping to defend their world TTT title at the upcoming championships in Italy, and after just missing out in the Tour de France, they will be gunning for this one. Tony Martin leads the squad, but they are missing some of their big pieces, like Sylvain Chavanel and Niki Terpstra. Still, they’ve got some talent here. Astana’s strong squad looks poised to challenge them. Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff both have a boatload of talented riders, but this parcours might be a bit flat for them. Sky’s roster isn’t packed with as many TT stars as it was in the Giro and the Tour, but they’ll probably be alright. Speaking of the Tour, Orica-GreenEdge fielded a very different squad there, and I don’t expect them to provide back to back Grand Tour TTT wins. RadioShack – Leopard will be led by Fabian Cancellara. Don’t overlook them, despite their aging roster behind him. Traditional favorites BMC and Garmin aren’t packing many heavy hitters. Katusha will be gunning to keep Purito from losing too much time.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Astana | 2. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 3. Movistar | 4. Radioshack-Leopard

    Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    VS2

    We had to wait until the eight day of the Tour de France to get a summit finish. The Vuelta will be cutting to the chase much more quickly. The run to the top of Monte da Groba includes a Category 3 climb well before the halfway point and is otherwise pretty flat. However, 11km before the finish, the road turns up and stays steep until the summit finish. The average grade is 5.6%, with a 10% section early, a litte break in the middle, and then an 8% section near the top. It’s an early test, and gaps will surely form, but they aren’t likely to be devastating. Carlos Betancur has had plenty of time to rest since the Giro, and while it’s possible he might not be able to sustain a high level all Vuelta, he’s sure to be gunning for every uphill finish out there. For all his success, he has yet to claim his first WorldTour win. I’ll take a few stars of the Giro here, who have had plenty of time to recharge since they last Grand Toured. It’s also possible that a non-GC threat could be allowed to go up the road.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Sergio Henao | 3. Vincenzo Nibali

    Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

    VS3

    Stage 2’s finish isn’t backbreaking, but it should tell us at least a little bit about what’s what in this Vuelta. That means that anything I have to say about a Stage 3 could be completely out-of-date by the time the riders take to the road on Monday, but I’ll go ahead and make some predictions anyway. Until the last 4 kilometers, Stage 3 presents the riders with nary a hill. Then comes the finish, a climb of roughly 6%. With such a flat profile leading into the day’s only real climb, which is a short one, competition will be hot and heavy as the peloton hits the Cat. 3 at a very high pace. It’s steep, but not that steep, and the slope eases a bit in the last few hundred meters; a group of hard-chargers could come across the line together. The last image I saw of Philippe Gilbert was a bloodied and bruised leg post-crash in the Eneco Tour, but he is back on the bike and will love this opportunity to nab his first win of the year, especially after coming so close in Benelux (where he was 2nd on an uphill sprint to Arnaud Demare before crashing on the stage that perhaps best suited his skills). Other familiar hard-finishing, uphill-capable names could be in the mix as well. Alejandro Valverde and Purito Rodriguez should jump at the opportunity to pick up bonus seconds with a short uphill sprint. Roman Kreuziger, Simon Gerrans, Dan Martin, and Bauke Mollema might be in the hunt, too.

    VeloHuman Stage Favorites

    1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Simon Gerrans | 4. Joaquim Rodriguez

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Sean Rowe, Profiles from www.lavuelta.com.

  • Vuelta a España 2013 Preview

    Angliru

    Race Overview

    The final Grand Tour of 2013 is here at last! It promises to be grueling, extremely hilly and hot, which means plenty of entertainment for us. In return, VeloHuman promises to be full of content: after this outlook on the overall race, every few days will bring recaps and previews of the stages to come, so check back often. If you just came here for the picks, well, they’re at the bottom, but if you scroll past all the analysis, you’ll miss some names you might not have otherwise considered!

    The 2013 Vuelta will put twenty-stages and four jerseys (General Classification, Points, Mountains, and Combination) up for grabs. Time bonuses of 10, 6, and 4 seconds are awarded to the top three finishers on each stage, and bonuses of 6, 4, and 2 seconds are awarded to the first three riders across the lines of intermediate sprints. Mountains are classified (from easiest to hardest) as Categories 3, 2, 1, and (for the marquee summits) Especial.

    The first stage is a team time trial, not terribly long or hilly, and stage 11 is an individual time trial, with a small climb in the middle. We’ll call five stages (stages 4, 6, 7, 12, and 21) flat, and an additional three stages (stages 5, 13, and 17) are classified here as “medium mountain” stages, but will likely end in sprints, albeit with possibly reduced bunches. The remaining eleven stages are mountainous and finish uphill: stages 3, 9, and 19 are also classified as medium mountain stages but end with ascents, and stages 2, 8, 10, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 20 all fall into the high mountain class.

    With so many uphill finishes scattered throughout the twenty-one days of racing, the Vuelta organizers have guaranteed an intense battle for the overall victory that will rage constantly, rather than slowly building up to a few grueling stages in the last week–though with L’Angliru awaiting the GC contenders as the final summit of the 2013 Vuelta a España, the last week will be more than grueling. Not many pure sprinters are bothering to make the trip. This is truly a tour for the star climbers, and many of the sport’s most recognizable climbing talents (minus recent Tour de France racers Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, and Alberto Contador) are making the journey to the province of Pontevedra to start the race, regardless of their fatigue level this late in the year.

    Nibali

    All-rounder Roundup

    As so many major contenders are taking on the Vuelta after already grinding through either the Giro or the Tour this year, and with so many difficult stages offering opportunities for even the best riders to lose huge chunks of time at once, the quest for the GC victory at the Vuelta a España will be very hard to call. On perfect form and targeting this race, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali would be a strong favorite. He dominated the Giro d’Italia with his combination of elite climbing and relatively newfound elite time trialing, winning the pink jersey with nearly five minutes of cushion over the 2nd place rider, Sky’s Rigoberto Uran. He has already won the Vuelta once, in 2010, and he knows that an opportunity to win two Grand Tours in a year, an opportunity that he has in 2013, is a rare thing. However, after a midseason break from racing, it is hard to tell whether Nibali has the form to take on another three-week Grand Tour as the favorite, especially when his next main target this season is the World Championship race, an event with far more climbing than usual that is being held in his home country. That leaves this competition open for a sizable lot of other contenders, though the question of focus (Vuelta vs. World Champs) exists for nearly every one of them.

    Still, the discussion should start with Vincenzo Nibali. Not only is he probably the strongest all-round rider in this Vuelta at his best, he’s also riding at the head of a stacked team. His Astana supporting squad includes Tour top 10 man Jakob Fuglsang (don’t write him off for a top 10 here if he targets it), and capable all-rounders Tanel Kangert, Maxim Iglinsky, Janez Brajkovic, and Andriy Grivko. Even without Kessiakof, they are well-built for the opening team time trial, and the climbing support will be strong (as it needs to be for all the summit finishes). Nibali’s performance at the Tour de Pologne showed a lot of post-Giro rust, but he got back on track at the Vuelta a Burgos, putting in a podium performance with solid climbing legs, rolling in 48 seconds behind Quintana on the decisive final stage.

    Given his resume and a recent showing of form, Nibali is my prohibitive favorite, but even with the necessary form, his powerful engine isn’t built to nab bonus seconds in short, steep, close finishes against punchy opponents, and this Vuelta offers many opportunities for those explosive riders, meaning competition will be fierce.

    KatushaAs such, there will be a bevy of explosive climbers in attendance to challenge the Shark of Messina. Chief among them are Spanish stars Joaquim Rodriguez of Katusha and Alejandro Valverde of Movistar. Rodriguez is coming off a strong Tour de France in which he finished on the podium. The stage profiles at the Vuelta a España probably have him salivating, but he dug incredibly deep in the last week of the Tour to come up with his third place in GC. He hasn’t raced since, leaving some question marks about his form. He isn’t a stranger to performing at a high level in two Grand Tours per year (he stood on two GT podiums last year), but he did have a bit more recovery time in 2012 between the Giro and the Vuelta. Still, despite a bit of uncertainty, Purito has the talent and, at age 34 riding in his home Grand Tour, motivation will be through the roof. He has performed at an extremely high level in Grand Tours in the past two years, but his could be his best chance to finally win one. He has the finishing kick to pick up seconds on any given stage, and he has improved his time trialing enough that it shouldn’t keep him out of contention, especially not when this edition’s ITT has a categorized climb in the middle of it. If he still has the form, I think his overall package will be enough to carry him onto the podium and possibly even to the overall victory.

    Alejandro Valverde’s combination of climbing and finishing power make him another prime candidate for the podium, especially after a heartbreaking Tour de France that saw him lose an insurmountable chunk of time after a mechanical problem on a windy flat stage. Bonus seconds play to Valverde’s strengths, as he is the best sprinter among the elite climbers on the start list, but like Rodriguez, he’s coming off a Tour de France in which he went very deep in the final week (fighting to get back into the top 10 in GC, which he did), and as strong as he is, Rodriguez and Nibali may have a slight advantage in terms of pure climbing. He already has a Vuelta victory on his Palmares and knows what it takes, but this might cut both ways: with the World Championship race parcours almost perfectly tuned to his strengths, Valverde does already have one Vuelta to his name, but no rainbow jersey.

    As good as Nibali, Rodriguez, and Valverde are, none of them could be considered even close to being the favorite. This race is just too open, and there are so many questions raised by fatigue and rider motivation. The other contenders include a pack of up-and-comers, and a stable of old veterans. Perhaps chief among the 25 and under crowd are Sky’s Sergio Henao and AG2R’s Carlos Betancur. Betancur won the young rider classification at this year’s Giro, finishing in 5th place. He’s a pure climbing talent, though what he makes up for in climbing, he really lacks in time trialing (he lost five minutes to Vincenzo Nibali in the stage 8 time trial of the Giro). Fortunately, this year’s Vuelta looks perfect for that skillset. However, he has not raced at all since the Giro and at just 23, his resume lacks much evidence for his ability to perform at a high level across two GTs. As explosive as he is, it may be a bit much to ask of him to cruise through three more weeks in peak form.

    Sergio Henao, on the other hand, was able to take the Giro at a less grueling pace, riding in support of first Wiggins, and then Rigoberto Uran. He looked great climbing in the Tour de Pologne, finishing 5th, and as he has shown in single day climber’s races, he does have some explosiveness under the hood. He rides at the head of a powerful Team Sky, and Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran is, apparently, here to support him. Henao’s best Grand Tour performance so far is his 9th place in the 2012 Giro d’Italia, but I think he will improve on that here, possibly challenging for a podium place as one of the top contenders with some of the freshest legs. The aforementioned Uran should not be written off, either; had he not ridden the Giro so hard, he’d be an obvious favorite here, but even with that mileage, he’s still a threat, though he may be more interested in the World Championship race in Italy (after his 2nd place at the Olympics and twice on the podium in Lombardy, Uran must feel the time is right for a marquee single-day win).

    Ivan Basso, Samuel Sanchez, Michele Scarponi, and Chris Horner headline the list of cagey veterans looking for statement victories at this point in their careers. Cannondale’s Basso missed the Giro this year and, therefore, has very little mileage in the legs. Only a year ago, he was 5th in that race, and he’s looked okay in recent contests (8th in the Tour de Pologne, 10th in the Vuelta a Burgos). Especially at this age, he might lack the explosiveness for a top finish in GC, but that freshness has to count for something, and his team is 100% committed to him. Samuel Sanchez will love the lumpy profile, but his stage race successes have been dwindling lately, and he put a lot of energy (with unfortunately little return) into the Giro d’Italia. Still, a top 10 performance, especially with his endurance and team support, is not out of the question. Michele Scarponi really isn’t all that old (33), but he has never performed at a high level across two Grand Tours in the same year. 4th place in the Giro is nothing to sneeze at, and suggests he still has plenty of power in the legs, but it is hard to see him nabbing a podium position in the Vuelta. Horner gets a mention for his long list of career successes, a top 10 at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, and no other Grand Tour in his legs in 2013, but I don’t know that I see a top 10 in the cards for him. His teammate Haimar Zubeldia, 36, has so many Grand Tour top 10s under his belt that even without much to talk about in terms of results this year, he gets a sentence here, too.

    Joaquim Rodriguez’s Katusha teammate Daniel Moreno took 5th in last year’s Vuelta and, while he did already ride in the Tour de France, he, like Sergio Henao, probably still has some left in the tank, in that his prior Grand Tour appearance seems to have been fully in support of a teammate. Last year, Moreno supported Rodriguez in the Giro and then was given opportunities to make his own mark in the Vuelta. If the script is the same this year, his elite climbing abilities, with no little amount of explosiveness to nab bonus seconds, could put him in the top 10.

    MajkaTeam Saxo-Tinkoff sends a whopping three possible podium finishers to the Vuelta, though all of them have already ridden in a Grand Tour this year and it is yet totally unclear who will be their top rider. On the one hand, the team has declared Roman Kreuziger leader. He is a true all-rounder and after putting in such an impressive Tour performance, he’s a legitimate threat. However, that effort and the upcoming World Championship race, which will play strongly to his Amstel Gold-winning skillset, raise a lot of questions about his motivations; he has even said straight out that he isn’t going for GC, despite being given the leadership nod. That may leave the task up to one of his strong teammates. Rafal Majka, 7th in the Giro d’Italia, is a very capable up-and-comer who just showed with a 4th place finish (and the Points Classification) at the Tour de Pologne that he still has some form. However, expecting two top-tier GT performances out of a 23-year-old rider might be a bit much. And then, of course, there is Nicolas Roche, who, in his 29th year, is surely striving for some kind of big win to add to his palmares. He certainly has the talent for a top 10, though people have been saying that for a long time. By saving his legs on a number of Tour de France stages, he has probably got some energy left for another push. He was a faithful domestique in the Tour de France and then in San Sebastian, and he may feel he has earned some team support, but we won’t know the team’s tactics until the race begins. Roche and Majka will at least be protected if they are not initially team leaders, and whomever this team ultimately decides to rally behind will have some impressive support. Chris Anker Sorensen at least deserves a mention as a potential decent finisher, and Oliver Zaugg, winner of Il Lombardia in 2011 (and so close to a top 10 at the Vuelta in 2008, where he finished 11th), will lend his support as well.

    To a lesser extent, Vacansoleil-DCM is in a similar position, with Thomas de Gendt (totally disappointing in the Tour de France), Wout Poels, and Tomasz Marcynski in attendance and all potentially capable of a GC top 10. Only a year ago, De Gendt was on the podium at the Giro d’Italia, and after falling off the pace early in the Tour de France, he showed a flare of ability in the first ITT and then disappeared again. It’s hard to say where he’ll end up in the Vuelta.

    For all his climbing talent Daniel Martin can’t be left out of a preview; he has had a stellar 2013 with a Monument victory (Liege-Bastogne-Liege), a stage in the Tour de France, and the overall and a stage in the Volta a Catalunya. In terms of chasing the GC at the Vuelta, however, there are many, many questions about his candidacy as a contender. He looked great at the Tour de France until he caught ill and finished at the back of the peloton for the final week, but strong starts and fading finishes are not new for him on the Grand Tour scene. It doesn’t help that he takes every opportunity to tell the media that he targets stage wins and doesn’t worry much about his position in GC. Additionally, the World Championship race is a target of his this year. Finally, Garmin hasn’t really sent him much help, with most of their star climbers in North America for the USA Pro Cycling Challenge and the upcoming Canadian circuit races. In his favor, the route will be to his liking, full of climbs and low on time trial mileage. He also didn’t push his legs as hard as some of the other top climbers late in the Tour de France, as he was busy battling a cough. Is a top 5 possible for someone like Martin? Sure. Is it possible that he will finish nowhere near the top 30 on GC? Sure.

    Belkin’s dynamic Tour de France duo of Laurens ten Dam and Bauke Mollema are both in attendance. Mollema has done very well here in the past, taking 4th and the points classification in 2011, and he’s become a more well-rounded rider since, but he gave his all in the Tour de France and likely won’t have too much left in his tank. Ten Dam was 8th in last year’s Vuelta after riding a Tour de France, so he can’t be written out for a top 10 either, but it’s hard to see him overtaking the fierce competition. It should be noted that Belkin’s Luis Leon Sanchez nabbed 10th place finishes in the 2010 Tour de France and Vuelta a España, but the summit-happy edition of this year’s race might be a bit out of his league in terms of GC.

    Movistar’s Eros Capecchi and Benat Intxausti and Euskaltel’s Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve are among the many super-domestiques with the chops to land in the top 10 overall. 24-year old Diego Ulissi of team Lampre has had a decent 2013, placing 7th in Paris-Nice and taking a stage in the Tour de Pologne. He doesn’t have the mileage of a prior Grand Tour in his legs, and if given opportunities, he could make a mark on GC.

    Domenico Pozzovivo of AG2R had a fine Giro d’Italia, finishing in 10th place behind his teammate Betancur, and showed good climbing form with a 7th place at the recent Tour de Pologne. As Betancur is a question mark in terms of both form and motivation, AG2R could turn its (admittedly not strong) support to Pozzovivo, who has a number of Grand Tour top 10s on his resume and could add another here.

    From the Pro Continental ranks, David Arroyo is fresh off a 2nd overall in the Vuelta a Burgos (behind Quintana and ahead of Nibali). 2010 may seem like a long time ago, but this is a rider who has been 2nd overall in Grand Tour, and, perhaps most importantly, he has not ridden one yet this year. Fresh legs and the support of a Spanish team that will be highly motivated to show their prowess in their home Grand Tour, Arroyo could put in a challenge against a field filled with exhausted contenders lacking motivation.

    Lastly, Thibaut Pinot will be at the Vuelta and, for all the jokes that have been made about his troubles with descending and his poor form in the Tour this year, he is coming off a 6th place in the Tour de l’Ain against some big talents and probably has fresher legs than most of the riders at the Vuelta with Grand Tour top 10s on their resumes. Maybe he’ll get back on track? Probably not, but it’s worth a mention.

    Even with all those names listed (far more than I outlined for the Tour preview), I’m still not confident that I’ve brought up every potential top 10 rider for GC. This Vuelta is just that open.

    Stagehunters

    The number of stages that won’t have GC implications is pretty low compared to the Tour de France we just witnessed, meaning that the collection of star stagehunters at the Vuelta is smaller than you might expect. In fact, with eleven uphill finishes, you might see the majority of the Vuelta’s stages won by GC riders, or all-rounders who have fallen off the pace and who will trade the occasional day of recovery in the saddle for shots at stage victories in the mountains. Riders likely to fit into this latter category deserve the first mention in the stagehunter section.

    It is quite possible that one or more of even the big three of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Vincenzo Nibali will turn to targeting stage victories in preparation for the World Championship race. Given the number of uphill finishes and the bonus seconds on offer at each finish line, I’d imagine Rodriguez, Valverde, and Nibali, in that order, are the three most likely winners of the Points Classification’s green jersey. I’d also say there is a very high likelihood that one or more of Roman Kreuziger, Daniel Martin, and Daniel Moreno, the three winners of this year’s Ardennes week, will turn to focusing on nabbing multiple stage wins as well–I’d also bet that one of them is successful in this regard. Rigoberto Uran and Carlos Betancur will probably lead the Colombian charge at the World Championship race, meaning that both could drop their GC aspirations entirely and gun for multiple stage wins in preparation here at the Vuelta.

    Farrar

    And for the rest of the stages? There are very few pure sprinters in attendance. Tyler Farrar looks to be the headliner in that department, and he’s looked good this year, with a number of stage top 10s and a win in the Tour of California. There aren’t a ton of flat stages for him to make his mark on, but there is a four day period (stages 4-7) that could put him at the forefront on multiple days in a row. He’ll be challenged by a number of other sprinters and more balanced riders with fast finishes, and in that respect, he’s going up against stiff competition, as some of the sport’s top sprinters-who-can-climb/all-rounders-who-can-sprint are making the trip to this hilly edition of the Vuelta. Gianni Meersman of Omega Pharma-Quick Step won the points classification at the Criterium du Dauphine after already having nabbed two stages each at the Tour de Romandie and the Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. The 27-year old is in his prime with a powerful team backing him, and it is a team that does not really have any GC riders and will therefore be fully committed to winning stages. As hot as he has been this year, and given his skill set, Meersman could be in line for a bucketful of high placings. He can sprint with the best sprinters, he’s more than capable of getting over late climbs, and he’s even capable of longer attacks. If he weren’t contending with so many climbing superstars in a Vuelta with so many summit finishes for the points classification, he might be my pick for that jersey, and regardless, he’s definitely my pick of the non GC-contenders who will finish highest in terms of points.

    Edvald Boasson Hagen brings a similar skillset to the competition, though he is a bit of an unknown quantity after a nasty shoulder injury in the Tour de France. If he’s back on form (and he has apparently been training for some time now, having recovered quite quickly), he is, like Meersman, capable of winning on a variety of terrains in a number of different ways. Against a somewhat less challenging field, EBH has a great opportunity to add a few wins to a resume that has lacked a bit of its usual pop this year.

    As usual, Orica-GreenEdge is stacked with stagehunters. Young riders Leigh Howard and Michael Matthews are poised to make a splash, especially Matthews, who just won two stages and the points classification of the Tour of Utah to go with his other good results this year. Tour stage winner (and 2012 Milano-San Remo winner) Simon Gerrans will be in attendance for the more difficult stages, and he’s a great bet to nab a stage win, though it’s always very difficult trying to predict just which stage he’ll win, as OGE likes to mix it up. Simon Clarke took a stage win en route to last year’s KoM jersey, and is likely to try for a few long ones again here, as his list of successes is short so far in 2013.

    Without Andre Greipel to support, Lotto Belisol will try to place Jelle Vanendert for GC, and look for opportunities elsewhere as they come. Since I don’t see the relatively-unsuccessful-in-2013 Vanendert making much of a dent in the overall, perhaps he and Bert de Clercq will try to pick up a win on one of the many uphill stages, while Greg Henderson will finally be able to sprint for his own ambitions instead of leading out a Gorilla–though at his age (36), expectations are low. Perhaps the Belgian squad will surprise.

    Luis Leon Sanchez is back and looks strong again with recent good showings in the Tour de l’Ain and his National Champs races. Belkin has a strong team here, and LL Sanchez is a great bet to deliver a long attack or a victory out of a reduced bunch on one of the medium mountain stages.

    Meersman’s teammate Zdenek Stybar just wowed the cycling world with a dominant Eneco Tour, nabbing a pair of stages and the overall victory, showing some true all around talent while everyone else was focused on containing his teammate Sylvain Chavanel. Don’t be surprised to see him rack up a few more results with his aggressive riding; he has definitely arrived as a rider, and in style.

    Belkin has Theo Bos, but the former track superstar has been underwhelming this year. He did zilch at the Eneco Tour (he seemed to have trouble making it to the finishing sprints), and despite starting the year with a string of Continental Tour victories, he hasn’t had much success at the top level in 2013. The competition from pure sprinters will be light, giving him a decent opportunity to nab a win, but the result results just aren’t there to back up his bid, leaving me a bit less confident. Vacansoleil’s Barry Markus has just signed on to Belkin for 2014, and after a third place in Scheldeprijs earlier this year (ahead of Bos, and Alexander Kristoff, and Tyler Farrar), he’s primed to show his future team that he’s got the chops to be a supported sprinter.

    If you are looking for a few under the radar sprinters, I’ll name a pair of young up-and-comers riding for an Argos-Shimano squad that doesn’t have Marcel Kittel or John Degenkolb to take away stage victories: Reinardt Janse van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt. The former has put together a string of high finishes in WorldTour events in the past few months, and the latter was stellar at the recent Arctic Race of Norway.

    For the uphill sprints, Philippe Gilbert will be going all-in to nab something out of his 2013. BMC does not have a GC-oriented squad, meaning Gilbert’s goals will be the team’s goals. As ugly as his knee looked after his unfortunate crash on the Eneco Tour stage that seemed to suit him most, if he’s healthy, there are multiple stages that look great for his uphill bursts, and he looked on good form at the Eneco Tour before it all went wrong.

    Fabian Cancellara is also in attendance. He’s looking ahead to the World Championships, and might be hoping for a stage win or two. Surely he’ll be targetting the stage 11 time trial, but he’ll be up against Tony Martin, who seems content to pick off the ITTs in basically every World Tour race he can think of. The Vuelta’s does have a hill, but it’s not a massive one, and that favors these two riders over the GC men. Other contenders for that stage include, obviously, said GC types like Vincenzo Nibali, and also time trialing heavyweights Tanel Kangert, Stef Clement, and Lieuwe Westra (who, unfortunately, crashed out of an Eneco Tour that was going very well for him, after abandoning the Tour de France in its final stage).

    The three Pro Continental squads (NetApp, Cofidis, and especially Spanish team Caja Rural) will surely be sending lots of riders up the road as often as possible for maximum visibility. Maybe this is the race in which Amets Txurruka finally stays out front all day for a stage win. Leopold Konig is a name to keep in mind. Euskaltel’s stable of climbers and Vacansoleil’s breakaway artists will likely be out in force for wins on the intermediate stages as well.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    General Classification Winner

    Vincenzo Nibali

    GC Podium

    Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao

    GC Top 10

    Ivan Basso, Alejandro Valverde, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Moreno, Carlos Betancur, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche

    Points Classification Winner

    Joaquim Rodriguez

    Stages

    Stage 1: Vilanova de Arousa > Sanxenxo | 27km | Team Time Trial

    Stage 2: Pontevedra > Monte da Groba | 176.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 3: Vigo > Mirador de Lobeira | 172.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Lalín > Finisterra | 186.4km | Flat

    Stage 5: Sober > Lago de Sanabria | 168.4km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 6: Guijuelo > Caceres | 177.3km | Flat

    Stage 7: Almendralejo > Mairena del Aljarafe | 195.5km | Flat

    Stage 8: Jerez de la Frontera > Alto de Peñas Blancas | 170km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 9: Antequera > Valdepeñas de Jaén | 174.3km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 10: Torredelcampo > Alto Hazallanas | 175.5km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 11: Tarazona | 38km | Individual Time Trial

    Stage 12: Maella > Tarragona | 157km | Flat

    Stage 13: Valls > Castelldefels | 165km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 14: Bagà > Andorra | 164km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 15: Andorra > Peyragudes | 232.5km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 16: Graus > Formigal | 147.7km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 17: Calahorra > Burgos | 184.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 18: Burgos > Peña Cabarga | 186km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 19: San Vicente de la Barquera > Alto del Naranco | 177.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 20: Aviles > Alto de L’Angliru | 144.1km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)

    Stage 21: Leganes > Madrid | 99.1km | Flat

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Román P. G., Laurent Brun (photo 2 and 4), Flowizm, and Louise Hyldegaard and Ditte Thieme.

  • Eneco Tour 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Eneco

    All-rounder Roundup

    The weeklong drought of WorldTour racing since Weening took the Tour de Pologne in grand style with a strong final stage performance is finally over. The Eneco Tour is here, and WT cycling is finally returning to the territory of the spring classics, with the occasional crosswinds, cobbles, and short but steep climbs to keep things interesting.

    In years past, this has been a race whose outcome has been almost wholly determined by time trialing prowess, with one or two stages against the clock providing the brunt of the time gaps, and a number of flat stages in between. Organizers have gradually provided more and more bumps in the road to liven up the GC, with last year seeing an ascent of the Muur van Geraardsbergen (formerly of the Tour of Flanders) in the queen stage, a climb that shook up the leaderboard and gave Lars Boom the victory and Niki Terpstra a podium position.

    This year’s Eneco Tour is the hilliest yet. Stages 1-4 will be for the sprinters (though hills on Stage 2 might reduce the pack a bit), but then the GC battle will heat up on some difficult roads. The Stage 5 time trial is short — 13.2 km — but technical and lumpy, too. Stage 6 combines the roads of Amstel Gold and Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and Stage 7 returns to Geraardsbergen. Last year’s GC was dominated by time trialists who were capable of staying with the pack on the tougher classics-style climbs. This year’s hills should be even more selective in terms of the overall leaderboard. The winner will be a true all-rounder, who can possibly nab bonus seconds at the finish lines, produce a top-tier time against the clock, and climb at a high level.

    Last year’s winner, Lars Boom, is a capable climber, a top-notch time trialist, and a good enough handler to take on the technical course. He’s likely to repeat a high level performance; however, his results this year have not been as impressive as he might have liked; he didn’t make the podium in the Dutch time trial championships, his classics campaign was disappointing, and he did not produce any remarkable results in the Tour de France. Moreover, the hilly route may be a bit too much to ask from Boom to expect an outright victory. A podium may be doable, especially with the support of a strong team Belkin. The Dutch squad may have another rider better suited to this year’s edition, coming off a strong win in the Tour of Denmark: Wilco Kelderman. Kelderman is already sporting top 10s in this year’s Tour Down Under and Tour de Romandie, and he is targeting this race. He is a good climber who should be able to hang on when the road goes up: the 22-year old could be primed for a high finish.

    Serious competition could come from another Benelux squad, Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Sylvain Chavanel was second last year and also in 2009. His 11th in the San Sebastián might not have been as great as he’d hoped for, but he managed to hang with a group of strong-climbing chasers to show good form after a disappointing Tour de France. He won the French time trial championship in June and, despite lacking a signature World Tour win this year, he’s managed a number of top 10s in stage races and classics in 2013. With help from a team well-suited to succeed low country crosswinds, Chavanel should be able to hang on the hilly stages, even if he loses a few seconds to climbing specialists atop summit finishes, and he’s sure to place highly in the time trial. Teammate Niki Terpstra, 3rd last year, may find the parcours a bit trying, but he’s another strong bet for a good finish.

    Bradley Wiggins leads Team Sky at the Eneco Tour. At his best, he’s certainly able to hang on on these types of climbs, and he’s one of the strongest time trialists in the world (and one who thrives with a hill or two in a race against the clock). He showed last week in the Tour de Pologne that he’s still capable of dominating the discipline, winning by nearly a minute over Fabian Cancellara. The big question is, of course, whether or not the 2012 Tour de France winner is targeting the General Classification here. His big target for the year is the World Championship time trial, and he will surely look to outshine the competition on the Eneco Tour’s fifth stage. Only time will tell whether he plans on fighting for GC. If so, it’s hard to look past his combination of skills.

    Orica GreenEdge is primed to get plenty of sponsorship time on camera with a strong team of all-rounders on the start list. Svein Tuft has done well in past Eneco Tours and figures to at least place highly in the Stage 5 TT. However, last year’s hills proved his undoing, and this year’s parcours will not do him any favors. Teammates Pieter Weening (fresh of a Tour de Pologne win) and Sebastian Langeveld (top 10s this year in Paris-Roubaix, the Tour of Flanders, and E3 Harelbeke, and 9th in last year’s Eneco Tour) are maybe stronger candidates for GC this year.

    lieuwe

    Lieuwe Westra won the Dutch TT championship and he’s got the package of all-rounder skills necessary to finish highly. Unfortunately, Westra was forced to pull out of the Tour de France due to some health problems. He seems to be recovered, but the question marks remain, enough to keep him out of my podium predictions. If he’s healthy, I can see him winning the whole thing, and Dutch squad Vacansoleil would sure love to have something to be proud of this year, currently sitting at dead last in the UCI team rankings.

    RadioShack-Leopard sends Belgians Jan Bakelants and Stijn Devolder to the Eneco Tour. Devolder’s past few years have been frustrating in terms of results, but he did just win the Belgian national championship race. Bakelants was third in that championship race, and just took a stage in the Tour de France in impressive style. He was 10th in last year’s edition of the Eneco Tour, and a capable all-rounder. A repeat top 10 might be doable, as Bakelants is the type of rider who should not be too troubled by some added inclines. Maxime Monfort of RadioShack is a bit of a dark horse to keep in mind: it’s unclear whether he’s targeting the Eneco Tour, but he’s a Belgian with strong all-rounder capabilities who had a good under the radar Tour de France (14th overall).

    Philippe Gilbert has had an immensely disappointing season in the rainbow jersey, but top 10s in Amstel Gold and Liege-Bastogne-Liege and a 2nd place at Brabantse Pijl suggest that he’s not totally off-form in 2013. He’s also not a bad time trialist when he puts his mind to it, nabbing second at the Belgian champs this year. The final two stages fit the skill set of the Boar of the Ardennes, and he’s was champing at the bit all Tour while riding in support of disappointing teammates. A stage win would be completely within reasonable expectations of the Gilbert of 2011 (when he was 2nd overall and took a stage), but it is unclear whether he’s got much of that old self left. Still, he deserves a mention not just as a stage win contender, but as a possible GC threat, with the support of a strong team BMC.

    Argos-Shimano’s stable of sprinter talent shouldn’t make you forget young Tom Dumoulin, who scored podium positions in the Dutch road and TT champs. He is targeting the Eneco Tour and should be up to the variety of challenges the weeklong race poses. I tend to use a “Watch Out For” tag to tip young up-and-comers or dark horses who could be boom or bust type picks, but I really think Dumoulin will be in the top 10 overall, so he merits mention as more than just a sleeper pick.

    Moreno Moser leads the Cannondale attack after a top 10 in San Sebastián and a great showing on the double d’Huez ascent in the Tour. He’s only 22 so the word “inconsistent” probably isn’t appropriate, but his results have been a bit hard to predict. He lacks much in the way of time trialing results in his young career, but this one is a short one, with a pair of lumps. Moser could do well in the GC if he can deliver on the hard uphill finishes.

    Simon Spilak leads Katusha, and he certainly has the climbing and TTing chops to compete. Weeklong stage races have been his forte. However, after a strong start to the season, Spilak’s form is in question this August.

    Stagehunters

    The sprinting and pure time trailing talent in attendance at the Eneco Tour should make for some exciting individual stage finishes. Headlining the fast men are Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. Theo Bos and Mark Renshaw of Belkin, Tyler Farrar, Yauheni Hutarovich, Danny van Poppel, Ben Swift, Gert Steegmans, Daniele Bennati, Arnaud Demare, Elia Viviani, Francisco Ventoso, JJ Rojas, and Daryl Impey could also feature in the bunch sprints.

    Contenders for the win in the time trial will also be numerous, with a number of pure TT stars in attendance beyond those riders who can TT and climb well enough for GC. Svein Tuft and Taylor Phinney headline the list of guys who might find the week as a whole too hilly, but who could perform highly in the time trial. Both have done well time trailing here before (and in GC, as well, though this year will likely prove too lumpy). Alex Dowsett, who won the first ITT at the Giro and took the national title in Britain, is also in attendance. Wiggins, mentioned above, might be interested in GC, but he is certainly interested in coming away with a win in Stage 5, and if I had to pick one name for the stage win, it would be his.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    General Classification Winner

    Sylvain Chavanel

    GC Podium

    Wilco Kelderman, Lars Boom

    Other Strong GC Contenders

    Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin, Philippe Gilbert, Lieuwe Westra, Moreno Moser

    Stages

    Stage 1: Koksijde > Ardooie | 175.3km | Flat

    Stage 2: Ardooie > Brussel | 176.9km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 3: Oosterhout › Schouwen-Duiveland | 187.3km | Flat

    Stage 4: Essen › Vlijmen | 169.6km | Flat

    Stage 5: Sittard-Geleen › Sittard-Geleen | 13.2 | ITT

    Stage 6: Riemst › Aywaille | 150km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 7: Tienen › Geraardsbergen | 208km | Medium Mountains

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Wouter de Bruijn and Georges Ménager.

  • Tour de Pologne 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    PologneAll-rounder Roundup

    Vincenzo Nibali and a tri of Sky stars (Sergio Henao, Rigoberto Uran, and Bradley Wiggins) are all returning to action at this week’s Tour de Pologne. They’ll be facing stiff competition for a rules-overhauled race: teams are made up of only six riders this time around, and there are time bonuses, not only for finish lines, but also at intermediate points in each stage. The rules will favor aggressive riding. However, any surprise contenders who manage to take advantage of the time bonuses will have to prove they belong with a strong performance in the final day’s not-too-hilly 37 kilometer time trial. With so much incentive for attacking, a likelihood of major leaderboard changes on the last day, and not a single flat day in the race, the 2013 Tour de Pologne promises excitement.

    If he’s targetting the race and has remained on form, Nibali is a major favorite here; however, these are non neglibigle ifs. Nibali has been on fire all year and he will be prepping for the upcoming Vuelta a España. On the one hand, he won’t have many other chances to get back into gear; on the other hand, he took last year’s Dauphine easy before the subsequent Tour de France, and he took the previous year’s Tour de Pologne easy before the ensuing Vuelta a España. With a summit finish on day 1, we’ll know soon whether he is targetting this race, but until then, it’s hard to say. The way his year is going, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gunning for it here, and if he isn’t at his sharpest on day 1, I dont’ think it will take long. His teammate Tanel Kangert is probably less of a question mark. The Estonian all-rounder was a key ally in the Giro, where he showed excellent form as Nibali’s top lieutenant. Then, he managed a 6th place at the Tour de Suisse among the impressive company of Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, and Roman Kreuziger. With a time trial on the last day, Kangert has a great shot at this Tour de Pologne, and I think the team would be glad to support him if he does well in the first few days.

    Team Sky brings three potential winners to the starting line (which is actually in Italy), but I don’t see all of them pushing for the victory. Sergio Henao looks to have the team’s support. He was third in last year’s edition, and this year has been third in Pais Vasco and second in La Fleche Wallonne. He seemed to fade a bit in the Giro, but he has had plenty of time to recover and as an aggressive rider with a strong time trial, he is well-suited to this year’s Tour de Pologne. Because I don’t doubt that he will be targetting the win, he’d be the rider I’d be most comfortable putting money on to make the podium. Bradley Wiggins has been in the news mostly as a footnote to Froome’s story this year. If he has given this race his full attention, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decent early showing, steady improvement, and a strong time trial to finish the race, though I doubt he’ll mount a serious challenge for the overall victory. Rigoberto Uran is here, and likely will want to get back into form for the upcoming Vuelta, where he will again take on Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t know that I see Uran putting too much thought into this as anything other than a cometitive training exercise. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the guy who took 2nd at the Giro when so many of the other big contenders have also taken plenty of time off. Sky isn’t a team to rest on its laurels, and if any of their options falters, another will be there to pick up the slack (see: d’Italia, Giro).

    Rafal Majka, of home nation Poland, notched a 7th place at this year’s Giro, and he’ll have the podium in mind. Luis Leon Sanchez, an aggressive rider and a strong time trialist, is on a strong Belkin squad that also includes Stef Clement and Steven Kruijswijk. Sanchez doesn’t have many results to prove his form this year, but he podiumed in both the time trial and the road race in Spain’s national championships this year, which should put to bed any concerns. Simon Spilak was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse in June, but he’s had a good stage-racing 2013, placing 2nd to go with a stage win in Romandie, 4th in Pais Vasco, and 6th in Catalunya. Mathias Frank looks like BMC’s biggest threat, and he’s coming off back-to-back stage wins in the Tour of Austria. It’s hard to see him beating out the really marquee names here, especially with that final time trial, but a top 10 is certainly within reach.

    Stagehunters

    The 2013 Tour de Pologne was not designed with stagehunters in mind, and therefore, this section will be more of a stub. Perhaps hilly stages 3 and 4 will go to a sprinter, but otherwise, the rest of Pologne’s seven stages will likely be contested by the overall favorites, especially with the immense time bonuses on the line, which could limit the opportunities of the pure breakaway specialists to get free of the all-rounders looking for chances to pick up bonus seconds. As such, the race is nearly bereft of pure sprinters. Watch out for Thor Hushovd, Ben Swift, Francisco Ventoso, Mark Renshaw, and Luka Mezgec in the stages that end in bunch sprints, though they will be contending with the heavy hitters looking for bonuses. The individual time trial on stage 7 has drawn a few TT specialists as well. Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney will face off with the GC men (some very good TTists there) on the final stage, and they could conceivaly make a run at the aforementioned medium mountain stage finishes, too.

    Predictions

    Winner

    Sergio Henao

    Podium

    Vincenzo Nibali, Tanel Kangert

    Other Strong Contenders

    Bradley Wiggins, Luis Leon Sanchez, Simon Spilak, Rafal Majka, Rigoberto Uran

    Stages

    Stage 1: Rovereto > Madonna di Capiglio | 184.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 2: Val di Sole > Val di Fassa | 206.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 3: Krakow > Rzeszow | 226km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Tarnow > Katowice | 231.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 5: Nowy Targ > Zakopane | 160.5 | High Mountains

    Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa > Bukowina Tatrzanska | 192km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 7: Wieliczka > Krakow | 37km | ITT

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by mc czoper.

  • Clásica de San Sebastián 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Sebastian

    Back into the Saddle

    The Clásica de San Sebastián showcases a number of serious climbing specialists and puncheurs, many of whom are getting right back into the saddle after a grueling Tour de France and still looking for chances to shine. The profile is dotted with classic Basque Country climbs. Scaling the Category 1 Jaizkibel twice, the second time about 40 kilometers from the finish line, should force some selection. A Cat 2 with less than 20km to go could provide a springboard for attacks, but it is the unclassified bump in the road just a few kilometers from the end of the race that has played launchpad for many of the races recent winners, including Philippe Gilbert and Luis Leon Sanchez.

    Luis Leon Sanchez will be absent from the startlist in 2013. Gilbert is here again this year, but picking him to win anything seems to be a losing game recently. Instead, it looks like this edition will be be a battle royale between some of the biggest names of the recent Tour de France. Of those big names, few riders probably want to make a statement win more than Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, and the San Sebastian parcours suits his combination of sprinting and climbing. He’ll need to be aggressive (recent winners of this race have been) but he should be capable of both keeping up with last-ditch strikes and outsprinting a select group to the line, and after his terrible luck in the Tour, I don’t think he’ll want for aggression. Omega Pharma-Quick Step sends two potential contenders from Paris to the startling line in Sylvain Chavanel and Michal Kwiatkowski. Chavanel was constantly at the head of the pack in the Tour, but never made much of a mark; doubtless he’ll try something here, but I don’t see him having success against this field on this succession of ascents. The very young Kwiatkowski might be my favorite to win were he not coming off his first Tour effort. Still, he climbed well even into the Alps, and he has had a few days to recover: if Kwiatkowski can hang with the lead group, he can sprint with the best of them, and he can sustain a long distance strike, too. Simon Gerrans is another rider with a strong post-climb sprint, but with Orica GreenEdge’s stable of rouleurs and sprinters-who-can-climb, it is difficult to pick any one to shine ahead of the others. If the team helps him make it to the line, he’s very dangerous in the closing kilometer. Moreno Moser, winner of last year’s Tour de Pologne, showed strong form on the Alpe d’Huez a few days ago. He battled Kwiatkowski fiercely in Poland last year, and I can see both young riders jockeying for position here if a select group finishes together. Roman Kreuziger, in the middle of a career year that includes a win at Amstel Gold, a podium in the Tour de Suisse and a top 10 finish in the Tour, leads a Saxo-Tinkoff team not dissimilar from the Tour squad: Roche and Rogers will be in attendance, too. If he can solo over the Cauberg, Kreuziger can hang on here, as well. Bauke Mollema apparently caught ill in the Tour’s mountain time trial in which he lost so much time. Recovered, he could certainly show up at San Sebastian. He was 5th here last year, his climbing has form has never been better, and lest anyone forget, he had the finishing kick to secure the points classification at the 2011 Vuelta. With no Joaquim Rodriguez, Alexandr Kolobnev looks like Katusha’s best chance here. He was second all the way back in 2008, and this year he’s coming off a strong Tour of Wallonie and will be fresher than many of his Tour-wearied opponents. Lastly, Gilbert’s teammate Greg Van Avermaet is coming off an extremely successful Tour de Wallonie, in which he won two stages, the points classification, and the overall race. He was third here in 2011: whether or not he finishes highly will depend on the pace up the final climbs (and, of course, whether he is targetting a victory Saturday in the first place). He won’t be able to hang with any of the pure climbers if they make any aggressive attacks late, but if things come back together, he could contend with the likes of Simon Gerrans for a sprint finish with a select group.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    Winner

    Alejandro Valverde

    Podium

    Roman Kreuziger, Michal Kwiatkowski

    Other Strong Contenders

    Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Greg van Avermaet, Alexandr Kolobnev, Moreno Moser

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by malomen.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 19: Where We Stand After Seventeen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 18-21

    Top10ChasersDay 19: The Finale Is Here

    Stages 15, 16, and 17 showcased some awesome cycling. After a Sagan-led breakaway took the intermediate sprint early in the day, the heavy hitters caught up with them as the road started going up, and Sky’s dynamic duo laid waste to the best climbers in the world on the way up. By the time Porte pulled off, few were left to contest the day, and soon it was a battle royale between Froome and the young challenger Nairo Quintana. Quintana made a brave effort, but Froome matched every attack and then dropped him. The yellow jersey winner finished first, and in the process, he gained back much of what time he had lost to the other favorites in the crosswinds a few days before. Purito Rodriguez zoomed past Contador on the slopes to take fourth, crossing the line with an impressive Mikel Nieve (who is now the only guy focusing solely on the KoM competition that actually has a shot) to show that his form has arrived. Most of the other contenders for the top 10 of General Classification rolled in close together, though this was the stage that finally ended any hopes past winners Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck had of finishing among those ten. Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq deserves a mention for finishing 11th, ahead of some big names like Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin.

    Stage 16 was predictably unpredictable, a day for the breakaway, and as usual, many of the big breakaway types jumped and many didn’t do anything at all (I’m looking at you, Gerrans, Clarke, and Chavanel). Rui Costa, whose GC hopes were smashed when Movistar sent him back to (fruitlessly) help Valverde back when said team leader was getting gapped by the peloton in the crosswinds, got into the break and, once there, realized that he was easily the best man in the best form in the bunch. He attacked on the final climb and stayed away for the win, well-earned. But there was also some real action going on further back in the race, where Katusha attacked on the same climb when they reached it several minutes later. They were matched by a group with most of the big contenders, but they left behind the likes of Laurens Ten Dam, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and Michael Rogers for a final gap of about a minute.

    Stage 17 threatened to be extremely dangerous, what with a technical descent and a nasty, rainy forecast, but for the most part, the big names emerged unscathed, except for Jean-Christophe Peraud, who fractured his collar bone in a recon ride crash, raced anyway, and then crashed and fell onto the same side during the time trial, forcing him to abandon. Froome won the day rather predictably, but Contador wasn’t off by much, and (of the potential podium contenders) neither were Quintana, Kreuziger, or Joaquim Rodriguez. Unfortunately for him and Dutch fans everywhere, Bauke Mollema, typically a very good time trialist, finished a full two minutes down on Alberto Contador, with whom he had been vying for second place. The Dutch rider slides into fourth following the bad day.

    Heading into the Tour’s big three Alpine stages, Froome has a gap of over four and a half minutes on Contador and Kreuziger, who themselves have roughly two minutes on Mollema and Quintana, with Rodriguez half a minute back from that. It is hard to see any other riders than these making it onto the General Classification podium in Paris.

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    The long-awaited double climb of Alpe-d’Huez is finally here. The peloton will take on an early Cat 2, and then a Cat 3 before the feed station, and then the Category 2 Col d’Ornon and a descent to the intermediate sprint, before they finally begin the steep slopes of Alpe-d’Huez. After reaching the summit, the riders must climb the short but steep Col de Sarenne, a Cat 2, before strapping in for a steep, dangerous descent. After almost 30km of mostly downhill roads, the riders must climb Alpe-d’Huez one more time. A brutal day, for sure, and one that will offer many opportunities for attacks to stick and gaps to form. Team Sky will face relentless attacks from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, and down a few men, they may struggle to control the race. Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez have both had a very strong three days in the saddle, and after disappointing Dauphiné’s from both, it seems the form is finally there. Contador’s second-in-command Roman Kreuziger has yet to falter by his leader’s side as well. Meanwhile, Bauke Mollema seems to be fading at the worst possible time. After a valiant first two weeks, I do not know how much Belkin has left in the tank.

    Alpe

    Froome has had fun winning three stages this Tour while he ups his lead overall, but I think he knows he shouldn’t take his eyes off the real prize, which may mean finally riding a bit more conservatively on this dangerous stage. At nearly seven minutes down, Quintana would need to pick up serious ground to pass Froome for the yellow jersey. Ergo, Froome will be more concerned about Contador and Kreuziger than the young Movistar rider, and that favors Quintana attacking for the stage. Don’t be surprised to see another climbing specialist let out ahead as well, Mikel Nieve. Nieve crested Ax 3 Domaines sixth and Mont Ventoux third: he is quite capable of handling the long slogs toward the sky, and far more so than Quintana, he doesn’t pose a threat to Froome. If Nieve can stay on the right wheels and make it through the first 160 km of the race with the pack, he has a fine shot of getting up to the summit finish first or second. Or maybe Froome doesn’t give anyone any breathing room, as has been his M.O. throughout the Tour so far. In any case, I don’t know that I see Rodriguez or Valverde liking the long ascents as best fitting their abilities. Kreuziger might be well positioned to attack on the Sarenne and then fly down the mountainside with his best-of-the-bunch descending skills, but he has stuck close by Contador’s side so far this year, so such an attack would only be called for as a strategic move to put pressure on Froome rather than as a way for Kreuziger himself to advance, and it seems likely that such a move would get swallowed up on the final ascent.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador | 4. Roman Kreuziger

    Watch Out For

    Mikel Nieve

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    With two Hors Categorie climbs in the first half of the day and then three more categorized climbs before the finish (a Cat 2 and then a pair of Cat 1s), stage 19 could completely ruin the top 10 hopes of any rider whose legs are starting to falter at this stage of the Tour. Those feeling fresh will surely put the hammer down early to weaken the field quickly. Laurens Ten Dam has been a real surprise so far this Tour, but this is the sort of day that could crack his admirable resolve. Roman Kreuziger and Daniel Martin are both climbers who have had great career successes on single day races and short stage races (each taking an Ardennes Classic this spring), but days like this after nearly three weeks of racing are the sort of thing that separate the classics guys from the winners of the Grand Tours. Given his unassailable dominance so far, I think Froome will pass the long test. With a strong team around him, Contador should be right there with the captain of Team Sky at the end of the day, and I do think Kreuziger will be there with him. In fact, the race’s finish, over 10 km of steep descent, favors the aggressive Czech rider. If he makes it to the final climb and is able to perform his duties as Contador’s lieutenant most of the way up, Kreuziger could use his Ardennes-proven talent for sharp attacks and then descend at full speed for the win. With that descent, there is also potential for a very select group to finish together, and a sprint among climbers is exactly what Alejandro Valverde will aim for to at least salvage something from his unfortunate Tour de France experience. Joaquim Rodriguez, too, would surely love to take a shot at it, either near the summit of the final climb, or in the final sprint. If Kwiatkowski is still here, it’s a great last few hundred meters for him, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to hang on all day without much of a team for help. Gaps are likely to be small or nonexistent, so if a group of heavy hitters reaches the final climb together, I imagine Froome will be content to roll over the line with them rather than attempting to push his luck descending or sprinting, which are not his forte.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Roman Kreuziger | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Chris Froome

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    At only 125 kilometers, the penultimate stage of the Tour will be ridden lightning fast. Climbers who have yet to make their marks with a stage win will be attacking and counter-attacking like mad here, and the GC types will be focused on making it through without losing ground in the chaos of six categorized climbs, including an HC summit finish. I would imagine we will again see Mikel Nieve trying to get ahead for mountain points, but there will likely be a number of chasers for every attack. Anyone close to the podium, especially Alberto Contador, who doesn’t like to settle for second place, will have until the final summit to attack the man in yellow. Lots of action, but I see Froome cresting the summit before anyone. It’s the last climber’s stage of the Tour, and Froome won’t need to worry about storing energy for any more Alpine climbs. I imagine any long-range attacks from lesser riders will be reeled in by those higher up the ladder who don’t want to lose their places, and I imagine the legitimate volleys from those challenging for the podium will ultimately be answered by Froome, who has just been so much better than his competitors so far. And if the other contenders have managed to close the gap by this stage? Well what better place than a summit finish for the Tour’s best diesel climber to make his final statement? He reached the top of Ax 3-Domaines first, he reached the top of Ventoux first, and with almost thirty kilometers of downhill racing leading into the final climb to catch any breakaways, I imagine Froome will reach the top of the Semnoz first as well, though I expect everything Contador and Quintana have to give on the way up.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Alberto Contador

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    An evening finish in Paris will be a lovely sight. The route showcases many of France’s biggest tourist attractions (Versailles and the Champs-Elysses cap off a Tour that has already visited Mont Saint-Michel and the Alps). After so many days struggling over mountains, Mark Cavendish will look to pick up his fifth win on the Champs-Elysses, but challengers are nipping at his heels. Marcel Kittel beat him in a pure sprint earlier this Tour, and Greipel will have his say as well. Sagan is not quite as fast in a drag race, but surely he, too, will direct his determination toward this finish. Despite his loss to Kittel in an earlier sprint this Tour, it’s hard to see past Cavendish yet, here where he has never been beaten, though either one of the German pair would not surprise me if they made it to the line first. Forced to choose, I’ll take Cavendish, but I’m far less confident that he will win the day than I am that Britain’s Chris Froome will be not far behind him, wearing yellow.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Andre Greipel

    -Dane Cash

     Photos by Marianne Casamance and stintje.