VeloHuman

Category: Race Previews

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 15: Where We Stand After Fourteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 15-17

    Ventoux

    Day 15

    A flat stage, an ITT, two more flat stages, and a hilly stage, won respectively by: Marcel Kittel, Tony Martin, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and a breakaway. A rather predictable week… Boring no? It was anything but boring. Cavendish got tangled up with Argos-Shimano’s Tom Veelers on stage 10, bringing the leadout man down behind a faster Kittel and Greipel, who fought for the finish line; the former won the day. In stage 11, Froome took another big chunk in the time trial, placing second to the time trialing world champ. Bauke Mollema had a fine day and Laurens Ten Dam was not nearly as bad as he might have been. A crash ended Andre Greipel’s hopes of winning stage 12, making it a showdown between Kittel and Cavendish. The German outsprinted Cav for his third win of the Tour. Stage 13 looked to be another mass sprint affair, until Alejandro Valverde stopped to take care of a mechanical and took a little too long trying to get back into the mix. A Belkin and Omega Pharma-Quick Step led peloton did not apply the brakes, and suddenly Valverde was minutes behind and fighting to catch back up; Movistar sent everyone but Nairo Quintana back to assist. Then, taking advantage of a cross tail wind, Saxo-Tinkoff jumped off the front of the already high-pace peloton, followed by the likes of Mollema, Ten Dam, Fuglsang, Sagan, and a few OPQS riders, including Cavendish. Froome watched as they sped off, and what started looking like a spirited attempt to liven up the race turned into a legitimate breakaway with serious firepower. Valverde suffered the most, unable to match the pace even with help from Kittel and Argos-Shimano and a number of other riders who had been dropped off the pace. The break stayed away and gapped Froome by a minute; Cavendish beat the green jersey to the line (though Sagan did seem relatively uninterested), but the biggest story was the end of Valverde’s GC hopes. Eventually he gave up the chase, and rolled across the line over nine minutes down, ceding the team’s yellow jersey hopes to the young Nairo Quintana. OPQS took another win in stage 14 when Matteo Trentin outsprinted his breakaway companions to the line, but all the GC riders took it easy, except for a once-contender who had suffered a major time loss in stage 9, Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky. He picked up roughly seven minutes in GC by finishing 3rd on the stage, with the break, rocketing back up to 12th place, right behind his teammate Dan Martin, again giving Garmin two top 10 hopefuls on the eve of the climb up Ventoux.

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    The iconic Mont Ventoux awaits, and Chris Froome’s many challengers will hope to use this stage as their launching point towards a yellow jersey that has gotten further away from them since the Tour left Corsica. I have to doubt their chances. Froome has aced every test so far, and while his team may have been battered in the past week, losing a pair of riders and dropping their total to seven, the leader looks strong as ever. His reduced team will need to be as good as possible though, with three Cat 4s and then a Cat 3 well before the climb to the summit of Ventoux even begins. Be ready to see a lot of attacks and attempted breakaways.

    Speaking of attacks, when Valverde fell off the back of the peloton yesterday and Costa went with him, Movistar lost a lot of GC-threatening-attack-clout. Quintana alone remainsin contention. Expect to see him right there with Froome until he decides to attack, hard. I think the young Colombian, who has shown that he is on form with repeated jumps ahead in service of Valverde earlier, could pose a challenge on Ventoux’s slopes, especially now that his team is more dedicated to his own plans—though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alejandro Valverde strike out for his own stage-winning glory now that he isn’t seen as a threat for the overall. Obviously this stage looks great for Contador, but until he proves that he can keep up with the under-30 crowd that crested Ax 3 Domaines before him, I’ll withhold my stage-winning tip—though I think he’ll be up there well ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez, who didn’t inspire confidence in the Dauphine and hasn’t yet in the Tour; additionally, this sort of long steep climb favors other climbers a bit more.

    Jakob Fuglsang doesn’t have great team support, but I do think he is capable of hauling tail up this sort of climb. Similarly, I’m not sure how much support his stage 9 companion Dan Martin will have, what with Talansky spending all of today in the breakaway, though Martin has inspired confidence on his own so far this Tour. If he can hang on long enough, the brutal gradient at the top would be a great place for his Ardennes-winning skillset. And then of course, it is Bastille Day, and that will likely spur the French climbers into relentless attack mode. Pierre Rolland’s quest for the polka dots would really benefit from making it up Ventoux first, but I question his ability to stay away or to climb with the heavy hitters. I don’t think Voeckler has it in him either. John Gadret and Romain Bardet have shown good form so far and wouldn’t surprise me with an effort to attack up the mountain that the GC riders will likely ignore. A month ago, I might have tipped Thibaut Pinot, and this stage does not require him to descend down Ventoux after he climbs it, but he hasn’t done much to prove he’s capable this Tour. In short, as uninteresting as it may be, I can’t look past Froome until others step up in the mountains. Mollema and Quintana also both came into this Tour with strong 2013s backing their claims and have performed accordingly so far, but others need to act quickly if they want to prove that they have finally rounded into form.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    The road to Gap looks like a perfect day for a breakaway, with an early Cat 3 and then Cat 2 climb, and a late Cat 2 summit less than fifteen kilometers from the finish. If the GC guys are taking it easy heading into a very difficult time trial and then the double climb of Alpe D’Huez, it will be a good opportunity for enterprising types to jump into a break and stay away all day. Orica-GreenEdge has a knack for this sort of thing with a number of competitors capable of hanging with a break, namely, the Simons Gerrans or Clake. Clarke has said he is at the Tour to get into breaks, and he didn’t go with the jump on stage 14, so I have to think he might try here. Sylvain Chavanel, who took Stage 14 easy, might like this sort of stage as well. As we saw today, the transitional stages where the GC men aren’t paying much attention to the break can be very difficult to call, so suffice it to say that any strong non-GC rider with a talent for climbing and jumping quickly into a breakaway is going to see this as a good opportunity. And of course, you can never count out Peter Sagan.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Simon Clarke | 2. Sylvain Chavanel

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    A mountain time trial gives Chris Froome another excellent opportunity to pick up time on his closest rivals, though the parcours should certainly reduce the gaps between the Sky captain and his more climbing-oriented challengers. Contador may have lost a lot of time at Mont St. Michel, but he did have a strong day on a course that did not play to his skillset. I expect a good day from him here; I think he’ll lose time, but less than he did in Stage 11. I also expect a very good performance from Bauke Mollema, having taken third on a very recent mountain trial of only five fewer kilometers shorter in the Tour de Suisse, a result that nabbed him second overall in GC to the winner of both that day and that tour, Rui Costa. Movistar may hold Costa back this week, but he’s got the talent to put up a strong result on stage 17 (as usual, this team ambition vs. time trialing prowess question holds true for many riders in the role of domestique, including Costa’s teammates Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo, who may be taking it easy or may go full speed). The climbs will be much more to the liking of Movistar’s new leader than was the flat course on the coast, and I expect Quintana to do very well here. On the flip side, stage may be a bit too lumpy for Tony Martin’s liking. Michal Kwiatkowski has shown that he is not one to be doubted and while it’s a very techincal and vertically challenging time trial, I think he’ll make his mark.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Alberto Contador

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by akunamatata.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 10: Where We Stand After Nine Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 10-14

    MontStMichel

    Day 10: Yellow Jersey Battle Shaping Up

    In very broad strokes, stages 8 and 9 were what we expected: a select group of riders gained major ground in stage 8, and nobody picked up much time in stage 9, though a few riders fell out of contention.

    But as far as how all that actually happened, and to what extent, the two days in the Pyrenees were quite surprising, and quite decisive for a number of riders. On the first day, Sky kept a impressive pace throughout the day, and didn’t panic when star riders like Nairo Quintana launched attacks on the slopes. The train just chugged along, dropping guys like Tejay van Garderen out of GC contention. Eventually, all attackers were reeled in, and on the final climb, Richie Porte put the hammer down like an Australian John Henry (sorry for all the railroad-oriented language) and laid waste to some big names. In the end, it was just Porte and Froome riding together with all other challengers in the rear view mirror, and then Froome swung out ahead of Porte and went off alone for the victory, with his captain riding in behind him some fifty seconds later. Valverde and Mollema came in next, over a minute down on Froome, and then Laurens Ten Dam and a surprising Mikel Nieve. Kreuziger, Contador, and Quintana were all 1:45 down on Froome, and Rodriguez, Costa, Martin, Talansky, and Fuglsang rolled in over two minutes behind the Sky leader. But things went well for these guys compared to Cadel Evans and Dani Moreno, who lost over four minutes, and Pinot and van Garderen, who found themselves out of contention for GC, six and twelve minutes back, respectively. A truly decisive day, and one from which yellow jersey favorites not named Chris Froome will have a lot of trouble recovering. Valverde mitigated his losses, but Contador and Rodriguez will have trouble taking back seconds, especially with a flat time trial coming up this week. To those wondering if Andy Shleck is finally back, he did manage to cross the line only three and a half minutes down.

    Stage 9 was a day filled with attacks, and the madness hit Sky hard. Peter Kennaugh crashed into undergrowth beside the road and left the team down an important domestique. When Garmin and Movistar started attacking like crazy on every ascent, Sky found themselves struggling to reel in the constant barrage from the likes of Ryder Hesjedal and Nairo Quintana. Richie Porte, who clearly had little left in the tank after so much energy expended the day prior, lost touch and Sky was unable to give him as much support as they might have wanted. He tried chasing, but was ultimately called off the endeavor, proving a crucial difference between last year’s Wiggins-Froome duo and this year’s Froome-Porte duo: Porte is 100% commited to Froome’s victory, and everything else is secondary. Porte was integral to Froome’s huge time gap the day before, and he paid for it in stage 9. Still, Chris Froome was unbroken by the constant attempted breakaways, and by the final Cat 1 climb, a select group of strong climbers was riding together with no one ahead of them. Then, Garmin’s Dan Martin jumped ahead and did what he does best, gunning uphill toward the summit. Jakob Fuglsang joined him, and together, they descended skillfully for thirty kilometers, holding onto a few tens of seconds of a lead. Martin outsprinted Fuglsang for the stage win. Still, in terms of GC, they finished with only twenty seconds of a gap between themselves and the Froome group, which included all of the big favorites (among them Cadel Evans and even Andy Schleck, who sits in a somewhat surprising 15th place)… except for Richie Porte, who came in around eighteen minutes down with broken-ribbed Ryder Hesjedal. With the second-in-command’s chance at the podium done, Sky may have to alter strategy somewhat now that Porte going off the front won’t scare anyone for GC.

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo 197km Flat

    It’s a day for the sprinters, with a Cat 4 climb, but otherwise, not much to break up the pack. It looks like a perfect day for the big boys, Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel. Hard to pick from among these guys. Greipel seems a solid choice for the leadout friendly finish.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    An incredibly scenic time trial that will provide plenty of helicopter shots… It’s flat, but fortunately for Contador et al, it’s relatively short, meaning it will be difficult for Chris Froome to pick up too much time on his climbing-oriented rivals. Tony Martin seems to be recovered from his stage 1 crash, and if so, he’s the favorite to win the day, though Froome winning wouldn’t surprise anyone. If Tejay van Garderen has recovered from his curious case of being terrible, he should challenge for a top spot as well. Of the GC types, Contador and Valverde are both decent time trialists, and so are Kwiatkowsi and Fuglsang and of course Cadel Evans. Nairo Quintana has surprising ability for all his “climbing” specialist label. On the other hand, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, and Laurens Ten Dam will all be doing their best to keep their losses slight. Tipping a non-GC name in a Grand Tour time trial can be difficult, simply because some guys take it easy in order to rest for their domestique duties: Tanel Kangert seriously let the VeloHuman Procycling (fantasy) squad down in the Giro when he decided to use the stage 18 time trial as a recovery ride to best prepare to help Nibali in the mountains. I would imagine that Richie Porte would have an excellent day, but he has shown that he’s willing to put his own dreams aside for Froome. Edvald Boasson Hagen might dig this stage, too, it being a short TT, something he’s in which he is quite capable of performing. Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits, Svein Tuft, and Cameron Meyer are other guys who could place highly. My pick to surprise is Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo. He’s nowhere close in GC so who knows, but he has the ability to time trial with the best of them.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Peter Velits

    Watch Out For:

    Jonathan Castroviejo

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Another flat day, and I am running out of things to say about these sorts of stages. It’s a rather long stage, but there are only small bumps to keep things interesting. I’d imagine it’ll be the usual suspects at the finish line, and I’m hard-pressed to pick one over the other but more often than not I’d take Cavendish on a garden-variety flat stage.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    There is a Cat 4 climb early, and then an uncategorized but surprisingly steep little hill only a few kilometers from the finish. Perhaps things will get interesting if Gilbert is sick of all the “when will he win?” talk and decides to attack on the climb? Probably not. It is likely that everyone makes it to the mass sprint, but I like Cavendish, Sagan, and Kristoff most here.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Alexander Kristoff

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    With seven categorized climbs (five Cat 4s and a pair of 3s), this stage might have breakaway written all over it if it weren’t for Peter Sagan and his pack of Cannondale supporters. As effectively as they handled stage 7, it’s hard to pick against them here, though even if they do manage to reel in any early breakaways, a pair of Cat 4s less than 20 km from the finish could be a springboard for the always hungry Sylvain Chavanel or Gilbert. If the pack finishes together minus the Greipel-types, Sagan seems the easy favorite, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and true all-rounder Michal Kwiatkowski (assuming he goes for it now that he is placed so highly in GC) as other possible contenders. It could be a good day for Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans or Daryl Impey to jump ahead late, as well.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

    Watch Out For:

    Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by schlaeger.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 7: Where We Stand After Seven Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 8-9

    Ax3Crop

    Day 7: Into the Mountains

    There was a lot of talk about the grueling first week of this year’s Tour de France, and while Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel will surely tell you that today was more grueling than they would have liked, the GC riders did not have much trouble handling the hills or winds in Corsica or southern France. The only casualty so far who was a legitimate GC contender is the unfortunate Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who abandoned due to crash-related injuries. Ryder Hesjedal has a broken rib from a crash, but he hasn’t shown signs of giving up yet.

    Stage 4’s team time trial went almost as expected: Teams Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky were in the top 3, and Movistar, Garmin, and Saxo-Tinkoff had fine days. But the glory went to Orica-GreenEdge, who managed to cross the finish line with the fastest time… by less than one second. The feat put Simon Gerrans, winner of stage 3, into the yellow jersey.

    Stage 5 was a bit hilly, but the sprint teams did not have too much trouble hanging on. As expected, Kittel didn’t factor, but Cavendish and Greipel were there, and the Manxman nabbed his first win of the Tour.

    Stage 6 was a flat affair, and despite high winds, the pack finished together. Unfortunately Cavendish went down in a crash as the day was nearing its close, and while he made it back to the group and into the finishing sprint, he couldn’t match Andre Greipel, who took his first win of the Tour.

    Again, as the last VeloHuman update had anticipated, stage 7 proved too much for the flatland sprinters. A break tried to escape, but Sagan’s team Cannondale made up for their not-so-great performances in previous stages by leading the peloton for quite an amazing chunk of time, and still had the energy to catapult Sagan to his first Tour victory (albeit, with a bit of nifty handling from the Slovakian to get onto John Degenkolb’s wheel and then power past hiim) after three second place finishes. After a week, Sagan is quite comfortably in the lead for the points classification.

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Finally, a stage with some serious GC implications. After many flat kilometers, the peloton will be forced to tackle a Hors Categorie climb and then chug up a Cat 1 summit finish. At least, we have a stage that will end with time gaps between riders. It’s not the most grueling mountain stage, thanks to the basically 100 km of flatness, but it will force the yellow jersey contenders to duke it out over the last several kilometers, and by the end of the day, we’ll probably see a few of the expected contenders exposed as pretenders. It will be an opportunity for Alberto Contador to show that he’s rounded into form and capable of providing his trademark attacks, and Cadel Evans will need to inspire his team’s confidence making it up the last summit with the leaders: I doubt BMC will let Tejay tow the veteran rider up many more mountains this year. With a relatively short Cat 1 finish, it looks like a great day for Alejandro Valverde, with his stable of Movistar mountain goats (Costa, Quintana, and Amador) to provide strong support. With their strategy of attacking from every angle in mind, Garmin may fire off a shot of Dan Martin or Andrew Talansky. But the boys in black (Sky) will come to the fight with all their firepower, and the recent results to answer any questions of form. Froome has shown time and again that’s up for it, and now is a good time to start his quest for the GC lead. With a better TTT than any of the big contenders, a stage win here could put him in yellow.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Five categorized climbs (a Cat 2, and then four Cat 1s), but a long downhill finish: the 30km descent might make it tough for anyone to escape. It’s a very tough day, and moreso than last stage, scaling so many summits might weed out any pretenders for GC, but that finish makes this stage more of one not to lose. Joaquim Rodriguez had a forgettable Dauphine, and Katusha will be looking for him to show up over so many kilometers of up and down. This looks like the perfect day for the Sky train to make its best attempt at controlling the bunch, while a group of dedicated polka dot jersey seekers goes for the succession of points-offering mountains. We’ll probably see a lot of Pierre Rolland early in the day, but any attacks will be hard-pressed to stay alive for the long descent. If the train doesn’t roll over the line in succession, this stage could come down to the GC contender who most wants to pick up a stage win regardless of the time gaps he might pick up: sounds like a day for an enterprising hard-charger with climbing legs, like Ryder Hesjedal (if he’s capable), Cadel Evans (if he’s capable), or Alejandro Valverde. Until we know more about the form of the top guys, it’s hard to say who will be there at the end. Sky seems like another good bet for now.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Marceau R.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 3: Where We Stand After Three Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 4-7

    Day3PicCrop

    Day 3: A Wild Corsican Start

    Eschewing a prologue this year, the Amaury Sport Organization decided to kick of the Tour de France with a flat stage and two hilly stages, ensuring action from the get go. We knew stage 1 would be hairy, ridden at times on narrow, windy roads even if it was flat, but we never could have predicted the crash-ridden affair that was. The Orica-GreenEdge team bus arrived at the finish late and (according to them team) was waved through the finish line toward the parking area… despite the fact that the gantry (a structure built set up several meters above the finish line that serves multiple purposes for signage and timing) had already been put in place. Predictably, the bus got stuck under the apparatus when the riders were less than an hour out, and what was initially a humorous affair turned crazy when the race staff could not manage to get the bus out. Over race radio, they informed the riders of an incident, and officially moved the finish line 3km closer… Minutes later, as the riders were closing in on the new makeshift finish line, staff succeeded in moving the bus, and back over race radio came the organizers, letting the riders know that the finish was now the original finshing line. Moments later (probably largely as a result of the confusion and rapid change in tempo), a few riders touched wheels and a massive crash took down a number of big names, including Peter Sagan, Tony Martin, and Alberto Contador. Stage favorite Mark Cavendish stayed upright but was stuck behind the carnage. A severely reduced bunch escaped the mess and among them was, Marcel Kittel, who managed to gallop to the stage win, his first in the Tour de France. Typically, if a crash occurs in the last three kilometers of a race, riders are given the time of the group they were with pre-crash; therefore, while the crash did not occur within there kilometers of the original finish, what with all the confusion about the finishing line caused through no fault of the riders, it was all but expected procedure when race organizers gave all riders the same time for overall classification on the day. While Tony Martin had to take a trip to the hospital, and others suffered bruises and cuts, nobody was too seriously injured.

    Marcel Kittel wore yellow for Stage 2, and all 198 original riders managed to made the start, scabs and sore elbows be damned. Unfortunately for Kittel, the hills proved to much for the young rider, and he was dropped from the bunch, along with Cavendish and Greipel, well before the finish line. What looked like Sagan’s day to lose became much more exciting when a group of six riders struck out for glory from the pack after the day’s final descent with only a few kilometers to go, Sylvain Chavanel among them. Sagan and the rest of the peloton gave vigorous chase and rounded up all but Radioshack’s Jan Bakelants, who managed to huff and puff his way to a one second victory over the hard charging sprinters. With it came the yellow jersey and a 1 second lead over the others. Sagan took second on the day.

    Stage 3 was even hillier, and once again, the flatland sprinters found themselves distanced on the climbs, leaving familiar names like Peter Sagan, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Simon Gerrans to duke it out for the win. Gerrans enjoyed a perfect leadout round the final corners and down the straightaway, and despite Sagan’s best efforts to ride Orica-GreenEdge’s wheels (a number of Cannondale riders couldn’t hang on over the climbs) before launching toward the finish, he ran out of road and Gerrans claimed Orica’s first ever Tour de France win. Sagan nabbed another second and with it, the green jersey, while Bakelants remains in yellow with his single second lead over everyone else. Despite not yet bagging a stage win, Sagan sits in a strong position in the points competition with two near-wins to Cavendish/Greipel’s combined zero top 20s. All three have managed to keep it close in intermediate sprints.

    Now, I’ll look ahead to the next stretch of racing. We’ve moved to the mainland, and kick it off with a team time trial followed by three days before the Pyrenees.

    Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT

    Stage 4’s team time trial is too flat and too short to see large time gap’s form, so I don’t think it will have too lasting an impact on the overall general classification; however, with 70+ riders sitting a one second back on Jan Bakelants and a number of non-selective stages to come, the highest placed rider on the winning team tomorrow will likely wear the yellow jersey for several days. Stage 1’s craziness shakes up the team time trial. Had some big names, including world’s-greatest-time-trialist, Tony Martin, not taken a hard fall in that mess, I’d consider this a showdown between Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Sky, both of whom bring very strong teams to the Tour. Without Martin (OPQS) or Geraint Thomas (Sky) at full strength, it’s going to be harder to predict; but I’d still take OPQS and Sky over the others. Omega Pharma’s 23-year old Michał Kwiatkowski stands to win yellow if his team can deliver a victory, and if they do, he might even be able to hold it for several days, being a capable climber. Chris Froome, Richie Porte, and Edvald Boasson Hagen will lead a powerful Sky team against them with the possibility of EBH taking yellow if they win. I don’t think I have any surprise names for this one teamwise, as the team time trial is a discipline that favors the strong teams. Other contenders include BMC, Garmin-Sharp, Belkin, Orica-GreenEdge, and Movistar — people seem to underrate Rui Costa and Nairo Quintana as time trialists.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Omega Pharma-Quick Step | 2. Sky

    Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat

    With an early Category 3 climb and then three Cat 4s, it’s no gimme that Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel will make it to Marseille with the bunch. But the Missile and Gorilla know they have to make up a lot of ground for the green after missing out completely on the sprints at three straight finishes. If they don’t make it, obviously we can expect Sagan, EBH, Goss/Impey/Gerrans, and possibly John Degenkolb (though he failed to make it with the pack in both the second and third stages). However, I think most of the bunch gallopers are going to make it, and this could be Cavendish’s first stage win of the Tour. Hopefully, all three of Cav (probably), Greipel (probably), and Kittel (maybe) make it, so we can get a better idea of how each is doing form-wise in comparison to one another.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Andre Greipel

    Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat

    A single Cat 4 climb stands out on an otherwise pancake-esque route. Barring a crash, it should be a day for the heavy hitter sprinters. GC contenders will try to stay clear of any messes. Peter Sagan will have a good opportunity to see whether his team, built almost completely around providing him with a strong leadout on the flats, can get him in contention here, especially after lackluster team showings on stage 2 and 3.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Andre Greipel | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains

    The day’s four climbs in order: Cat 3, Cat 2, Cat 3, Cat 4. Unfortunately for the breakaway artists, there are roughly thirty downhill kilometers leading into the finish line, meaning that while a breakaway might survive for a while, it seems likely that the Sagan types in the peloton will charge hard on the descending roads to sweep them up after the flatland sprinters are dropped. On the other hand, with the Pyrenees looming, the GC types might want to hold off, which works in favor of the break. It’s a perfect day for Orica-GreenEdge, a team with a number of riders who are capable of winning in a breakaway AND winning in a reduced sprint, making either scenario favorable for the Australian squad. If I had to make a pick, I’d bet the group comes back together on the descent, pitting Sagan against whomever Orica-GreenEdge is riding behind and other versatile riders with fast finishes, like Francesco Gavazzi (Astana), or Edvald Boasson Hagen or Michał Kwiatkowski if they don’t mind going all out the day before they take to the high mountains. Given the likelihood of strong performances in Stage 4’s TTT from a number of teams who have good sprinter-with-climbing-ability types, one of the riders gunning for this stage win could be sporting the yellow jersey in the blur of the bunch sprint… if they manage to catch the breakaway.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Francesco Gavazzi

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Jean François Bonachera.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 0: Where We Stand, and Looking Ahead to Stages 1-3

    Bay

    Day 0: Tour de France Eve

    The board is set. In just one day, the pieces will be in motion. My long pre-race outlook basically covers a lot of “Where We Stand.” The big storyline of the opening of the Tour is the absence of a prologue stage. The organizers have done away with the super-short time trial in favor of a real road race to kick off the Tour’s first visit to Corsica. Tomorrow, the best lineup of sprinters in recent Tour memory will set out with hopes of not only winning the day, but also of earning the yellow jersey (if only for a little while), an incredibly rare opportunity for the Mark Cavendishes and the Andre Greipels of the world. The first stage was obviously already going to be hotly contested, but with this added prestige up for grabs, OPQS, Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano and the other big sprint squads will be laying it all on the line. Meanwhile, Sky, Saxo-Tinkoff, BMC, Garmin and the rest of the of GC-focused teams will try to balance easing into the Tour with staying on their toes while the fast men fly around them. Here’s a quick look ahead at how I think things will pan out in Corsica.

    Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio > Bastia 213km Flat

    It’s a true flat stage, and that heavily favors the guys I see as this race’s best three true sprinters: Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, and Marcel Kittel. Cavendish and his squad seem to have their act together after some early hiccups this year, but Greipel and Kittel have succeeded in outsprinting him before. I think Kittel will surprise some people; this Tour could be his coming out party on the grand stage. Still, the first and last stage of this Tour have probably been on Cavendish’s mind since the race profile was announced, and I think he’s the man to beat. However, the road has many twists and turns and narrow sections on the way to the finish line, and with so much prestige up for grabs, it could get pretty hairy out there. No real way to predict crashes and who will survive them, but don’t be surprised if a lot of guys go down scrambling for the win Saturday.

    Stage Winner Prediction:

    Mark Cavendish

    Stage 2: Bastia > Ajaccio 156km Medium Mountains

    The road goes up rather quickly, as the riders face a hilly stage on just the second day of the Tour. With four categorized climbs, including a Cat 3 less than 20m from the finish line, Stage 2 could be too much to ask for the pancake sprinters. I think this one will come down to the fast men who can hang on over the hills, and I see a quintet of Peter Sagan (Cannondale), Alexander Kristoff (Katusha), John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano, Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge), and Edvald Boasson Hagen (Sky). The profile looks perfect for Degenkolb, but he has been lackluster so far this year. Eddy Boss may not have the necessary team support. Goss needs to show the world that he’s capable of reaching his potential, and I think he’ll have this stage in his sights. Unfortunately, Sagan won’t be taking any days off on his quest for green, and given what we’ve seen from him, I’m calling this stage for him. If Degenkolb and Goss are still at the front of the peloton by the time the final summit is crested, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a long range attack from Sagan after climbing that final lump. Kristoff’s sample size of results is too small at this point in his career to make a decent prediction on his results, but he’s been hot on the tougher sprints and could play spoiler here.

    Stage Winner Prediction:

    Peter Sagan

    Stage 3: Ajaccio > Calvi 145.5km Medium Mountains

    The Col de Marsolino, a Cat 2 climb less than 15km from the finish (after three other categorized climbs on the day), will likely prove too much for most of the traditional sprinters. This stage might even see a spirited breakaway attempt. It looks like it would be a great opportunity for Philippe Gilbert to nab his first win with an attack over the Marsolino, but I can’t tip him as my pick for the winner with his utter lack of results so far this year. Some of the punchier GC guys might take a whack at it as well, so watch out for Rodriguez, Valverde, Dan Martin, or Roman Kreuziger. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a move from any of them (or the always aggressive Contador) over the last climb, but I would be a little surprised if such a move were allowed to make it across the line, instead leaving this stage to the fastest man still hanging on in the bunch. Tough as the day may be, I think Sagan has it in him to be there till the end. On the third stage of the recent Tour de Suisse, the Slovakian wunderkind managed to win a stage after making it up and over a Cat 1 climb near the finish line with Rui Costa, Roman Kreuziger, and Mathias Frank, distancing even Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, and Tejay van Garderen. You can almost never count him out. I’d expect to see Alejandro Rodriguez in typical all-out form at the line if Sagan doesn’t make it with the group, but if I had to say one way or the other, I think he might be able to hang on for the ride.

    Stage Winner Prediction:

    Peter Sagan

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by Lori Branham.

     

  • Tour de France 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Froome

    All-Rounder Roundup

    Most observers seem to consider this Tour as a showdown between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador. For every news article fawning over Chris Froome’s dominance in basically every race he’s entered this year, there is a commentator shaking his head and reminding us that Contador is Contador, and on cycling’s biggest stage, he’ll make everyone forget the minor races he didn’t care to win. And that really is the storyline: Froome has podiumed in Grand Tours in the past, at 28 he’s just hitting his prime, and this year he has been unstoppable; Contador, on the other hand, hasn’t been the superstar he is expected to be just yet this year… but he is the same Contador who has won all three Grand Tours, including the Vuelta in 2012.

    His underwhelming results so far this year make Contador very difficult to judge. There is no question that Froome and the Sky locomotive are ready to party come Saturday. Contador has a very powerful team to back him up (Roman Kreuziger took Amstel Gold earlier this year and was very strong in the Tour de Suisse, finishing on the podium), and if he shows the same form he has shown in the past, it could go down to the wire, with Froome taking the lead early thanks to a pair of time trials, and Contador fighting to take back seconds in a brutal final week in the mountains.

    But as dominant as Contador was in the past, I just don’t see the evidence that he still has that same engine he once had. It’s not like he’s been bad so far this year; he’s just been okay. Sure, he could peak right on time, and could very well win the race, but from what we’ve seen so far, Froome is the rightful favorite heading into Corsica… and while I wouldn’t be surprised if Contador wins the yellow, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Contador fall to third behind Froome’s friend Richie Porte. Like Froome, Porte has been on fire this year, winning Paris-Nice and getting onto the podium in Pais Vasco and the Critérium du Dauphiné. His best Grand Tour result to date? 7th in the 2010 Giro. But this looks like it could be the year where he makes it onto a Grand Tour podium; given the team leader role in a few big stage races, he showed quite a talent against the clock, but also seemed more comfortable than ever climbing up the steepest cols with the rest of the GC contenders. As Froome’s lieutenant in the Critérium du Dauphiné, he seemed quite capable of performing double duty as a domestique and a GC man in his own right, and with questions dogging Contador’s performance heading into the Tour, it’s hard to see past Sky’s 1-2 killer punch. It seemed to work out well for them last year…

    There are quite a few other big names to cover, some of whom I think will do well, others who I think might have trouble. Alejandro Valverde is one I expect to perform. He has Nairo Quintana and Rui Costa as lieutenants… not a bad setup. With a team like that and a resume of eight Grand Tour top 10s (including a Vuelta win in 2009), he’s got the credentials. Like Contador, he sat out for two years thanks to a doping ban, and then returned with a strong Vuelta performance, where he took second to Alberto, and also took the points jersey. He showed good form all spring, too, getting on the podium at Liege and Amstel Gold. He wasn’t great at the Critérium du Dauphiné, but he was better than Contador, and much better than another big name I also think can push for a top 10 or even a top 5 at the Tour, Joaquim Rodriguez, who was a disappointing 16th at the Dolphin. Perhaps it was only a hiccup; he took second behind Daniel Martin at both Liege and Cataluyna, and looked fine at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he won a stage and took 5th. And if there has ever been a Tour to suit the climbing legend who doesn’t TT particularly well, this one is it.

    On the flip side is 2011 winner Cadel Evans, who comes to the Tour with multiple storylines. After a grueling Giro, can he continue to perform at a high level in a Grand Tour just a month later? And what about Tejay van Garderen, who made Evans look old and tired last Tour? Many observers bet against Evans at the Giro this year after his 7th place in the 2012 Tour de France, and he managed to make it onto the podium. Shouldn’t I be wary of doubting him at the Tour then? Maybe, but there are reasons aplenty. First, giving the Giro your all and then turning around and putting in a star performance at the Tour de France just doens’t really happen anymore. Evans is 36, not exactly an age that inspires confidence in his endurance. Moreover, he seemed to fade a little towards the end of the Giro, and though he podiumed, both Bradley Wiggins and Ryder Hesjedal abandoned. So I just don’t see it happening for Cadel this Tour.

    CadelandTejay

    His teammate Tejay van Garderen is another story. The 25 year old American took 5th overall and the young rider classification last year. He was 4th at Paris-Nice this year, and he finally won a pro race for the first time at the Tour of California, where he looked worlds ahead of the competition. If the story ended there, I’d say van Garderen was a strong choice for the top 5. I still think he’s a strong choice, but unfortunately 1) BMC seems to be backing Evans again, and 2) van Garderen was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse, and didn’t inspire much confidence in what is considered a strong suit for him, time trialing. I think BMC will give over to van Garderen earlier this year than they did last year, and I think his form is probably fine (7th at the Suisse still isn’t anything to sneeze at), so I’m tipping him as another strong contender for the top 5 again this year.

    Team Belkin (formerly Blanco) apparently got tired of waiting for Robert Gesink to live up to his potential, and named Bauke Mollema team leader for the Tour de France. Mollema is coming off a strong Tour de Suisse (second overall and a stage win), and with a good team of GC-focused riders behind him, I think he’ll be a strong performer. His 2012 was rather disappointing, but he has had a nice year so far.

    Garmin-Sharp brings another strong team to the Tour this year, with a three-pronged attack of Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, and Andrew Talansky at the helm and some strong veterans in support roles. Hesjedal failed to defend his 2012 Giro win this year, abandoning the race, and then he crashed out of the Tour de Suisse. He’s the only member of Garmin’s big three to even podium in a Grand Tour, but it’s hard to see past his lacking Palmares so far in 2013. Instead, I think Liège–Bastogne–Liège winner Dan Martin could be the best finisher of the three (and could definitely nab a stage win or two), in the midst of the best year of his racing life. In addition to his Monument win this year, Martin has podium finish in another Monument (Lombardia), a small collection of stage race overall wins, and a Vuelta stage to his name across his young career, but this will be the first time he’s taken on a Grand Tour in this sort of position, with GC aspirations. This year’s Tour should suit his climbing capabilities, but he’ll have to limit his losses on Stage 11. Time will tell. Andrew Talansky, riding in his first Tour de France, could certainly create some fireworks as well, though I think it may be a little early to tip him as a strong challenger for the overall.

    I don’t see another top 5 overall for Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Lotto-Belisol’s lineup doesn’t strike fear in anyone’s heart in the way that Sky, Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff do, and I think there a a few more hard-changing up-and-comers who could muscle him out of the top of hte leaderboard this year. It is hard to judge his form, as he has taken the “focus solely on the Tour” approach this year, with no WorldTour podium finishes to speak of so far.

    Nairo Quintana is a hot name heading into the Tour, fresh off an impressive Pais Vasco win (he also took a stage and the Points classification), and we know he certainly has the talent. In the Basque Country, he followed several days of dominant climbing with a surprising second place in the final day’s time trial, behind only Tony Martin, greatest TTer alive, and ahead of Porte and Contador. However, Quintana hasn’t raced since April (he’s been training back home) and he’ll at least start out riding for Valverde. I don’t know that the time is right to pick Quintana as a guy to mount a serious GC challenge, though it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if he did.

    This year’s parcours certainly suits another up-and-coming star, France’s Thibaut Pinot, who managed a 10th place and a stage win at last year’s Tour. He won’t have the dark horse’s advantage this year, he needs to improve against the clock, and he doesn’t have the team support of some of the other star contenders, but I could see another performance at the fringes of the top 10. He looked pretty good in the Tour de Suisse, managing a decent 4th.

    The Froome vs. Contador battle at the top, and the battle of names like Martin, Pinot, Quintana, and van Garderen vs. Valverde, Rodriguez, and Evans as challengers fills this Tour with storylines of old guard vs. up-and-comers. We should be in for some thrills as the untested set out to prove they have what it takes against the many decorated veterans in the peloton. I think the up-and-comers will have some success: I see Froome taking the overall win and a number of younger riders getting into the top 10 at the expense of some of the more well-known veterans.

    Sagan

    Stagehunters

    This year’s battle for green may be the biggest in years. Two years ago, the rules for the points classification were adjusted to favor the pure sprinters, and Mark Cavendish summarily won his first green in. Then, in 2012, an up-and-coming Slovakian rider named Peter Sagan set out on his first Tour de France journey, and proceeded to clean up the points classification, winning three stages and placing highly in a boatload more. This year’s Tour should have enough flat stages to make things very interesting, with plenty of opportunities for Cavendish to remain in the bunch until the final few hundred meters, at which point there is no one on Earth who is faster. He could win five or even six stages, if everything goes according to plan, and OPQS finally seems to have their leadout down, which bodes well for his chances. He certainly hasn’t seen his form decline since last year’s Tour, winning the points classification in May’s Giro d’Italia. Sagan will need to be on his game to nab as many hilly stages as he can, while remaining in contention on the pancake style stages–hanging on over the climbs in Corsica could be crucial, and making up extra points in intermediate sprints will be vital as well. He’ll also need to hope breakaways don’t rob him of stage wins in the later Medium Mountain stages where he might otherwise be capable of leading a group across the line. If it comes down to Cavendish vs. Sagan for green, and I think it will, I’d have to pick Sagan by a very small margin; it will probably be much closer than last year.

    Outside of those two favorites, Andre the Gorilla Greipel looks like Cavendish’s main rival on the flat sprints, but don’t count out Marcel Kittel, who has taken wins in Schelderprijs and in stages of a number of smaller stage races this year, even beating Cavendish and Greipel on occassion. The 25 year old comes to the Tour with a team totally dedicated to winning stages, and Kittel is their man on the flats. He’s probably a bit too limited and too third-fiddle to challenge for the green jersey, but he could certainly succeed in his hunt for a stage or two.

    Argos-Shimano’s other sprinter, John Degenkolb, is tough to judge going into the race. He took an awesome stage win in the Giro, but other than that, he’s achieved essentially zilch this year, after his unbelievable success last year, highlighted by five wins in the Vuelta. Argos will be behind him on any stage that Kittel can’t make it over the mountains, but he’ll want to prove that he has form as quickly as possible, so that his team doesn’t start to wonder if they should be working harder to get Kittel over the bumps.

    Other sprinters-who-can-climb include Matt Goss, Alexander Kristoff, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, in descending order of how much their teams care about their own stage-winning aspirations. Goss has GreenEdge’s full support as often as he can hang on over the bumps, but he’s been disappointing this year. I think he’s likely to rack up a bunch of points by taking minor placings in sprints, but he probably can’t beat Cav/Greipel/Kittel in a flat finish and he’ll be contending with Peter Sagan for the hillier stages. At the beginning of his still young career, it was thought that Goss had one of the best post-climb sprints in the sport, so we know that he was at least at one time capable of giving the best of the best a run for their money, but this year’s Tour is not one with much room for error. Alexander Kristoff is an exciting young rider who could also challenge Sagan for hillier stages, coming in ahead of Cannondale’s star on two sprint finishes in the Tour de Suisse (one of which he won). Eddy Boss is obviously one of the peloton’s most talented riders, but he won’t have nearly the support of many of these other names: Cannondale, OPQS, Argos-Shimano, and Orica-GreenEdge are at the Tour 100% focused on stage wins for their fast men, but EBH will be looking for his opportunities while playing domestique for Froome and Porte. Like Goss, he probably can’t pip any of the pure sprinters to the line, so he’ll have to race smart like he did at the Dauphiné (where he laid low for two stages and then showed off his superior handling skills on a hilly third stage, turning a sharp final corner before gunning it to the line) and maybe he can nab a Medium Mountain win if all goes according to plan.

    And of course, keep an eye out for the French riders, especially those sporting the colors of Cofidis, Europcar, and Sojasun, who will look for chances to make a statement at every opportunity. Breakaways and reduced sprints could see a lot of action from guys with dreams of stage glory in their home Grand Tour. Thomas Voeckler will certainly be most prominent of those hoping for breakaway wins (he will likely shoot for the polka dots again, as well), and he will face stiff competition from fellow countrymen and Orica GreenEdge’s Michael Albasini, Simon Clarke and Simon Gerrans, all of whom are capable of going for long distance wins in the hills.

    NOTE: I will be doing several “Where We Stand” updates throughout the Tour which will include stage picks for the upcoming days, including one on Day 0, tomorrow. More analysis to come!

    Predictions

    General Classification (Yellow Jersey)

    Winner: Chris Froome

    Podium: Alberto Contador, Richie Porte

    Other Strong Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez

    Points Classification (Green Jersey)

    Winner: Peter Sagan

    Stages

    Stage 1: Porto-Vecchio > Bastia | 213km | Flat

    Stage 2: Bastia > Ajaccio | 156km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 3: Ajaccio > Calvi | 145.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Nice > Nice | 25km | TTT

    Stage 5: Cagnes-sur-Mer > Marseille | 228.5 | Flat

    Stage 6: Aix-en-Provence > Montpellier | 176.5km | Flat

    Stage 7: Montpellier > Albi | 205.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 8: Castres > Ax 3 Domaines | 195km | Summit Finish

    Stage 9: Saint-Girons > Bagnères-de-Bigorre | 168.5km | High Mountains

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo | 197km | Flat

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Georges Ménager and Flowizm.