Category: Race Previews

Tour de France 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Chantilly › Paris – 113km

Somehow, the Tour’s final stage is already upon us. You know the script—although the day gets underway in a new start town (Chantilly), expect about an hour of processional riding into Paris, with champagne glasses and smiles before things heat up.

After an enterprising few get clear in the city circuit, the sprint trains will ramp up the pace and ultimately bring it all together for a high-speed bunch kick on the Champs-Élysées. Sure, a successful escape is possible, but it’s highly unlikely. Stage 21 is all about the sprinters.

With Mark Cavendish out of the race, the battle for the final stage is much more open. I see three riders as prime candidates to win, with Marcel Kittel leading the way. He’s done it before, he’s been decent enough this year, and at his very best he’s probably the fastest sprinter in the world.

André Greipel can run hot and cold, making it tough to pick him to nab consistent victories, but he’s definitely a threat here. He’s looked good, if not great, in a few sprint stages so far this Tour.

Alexander Kristoff is the other speedster that I see with a shot here. He’s come very close to winning on the Champs-Élysées in the past, and critically, he has appeared to get stronger and stronger as this race has gone on. Perhaps he’s peaking just in time for cycling’s biggest sprint showdown.

Peter Sagan will likely be in the mix as he always is. Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Daniel McLay, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

July 24, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Megève › Morzine-Avoriaz – 146.5km

The final mountain stage of the Tour is upon us! It’s an intriguing way to close out the GC battle—the profile is certainly a tough one, but the stage ends with a high-octane descent into a flat finish, so anyone hoping to pick up time will have to be aggressive well before the line.

The Col de Joux Plane, the HC-rated final climb of the Tour, is 11.6km long at 8.5%. The second half of the climb has several stretches that hit double-digit gradients, though only just, as it’s a pretty steady ascent.

The descent has some tricky corners and it’s steep, so there’s opportunity for a risk-taker to get an advantage there as well.

Stage 20 is yet another day that will give the breakers a good shot at glory, so I’ll start with the long-distance candidates. Rafal Majka, as ever, is a rider to watch, though it’s tough to say how much Friday’s efforts will have taken out of him. The same could be said for Thomas De Gendt, Jarlinson Pantano, Rui Costa, Pierre Rolland, and Dani Navarro.

I am particularly interested in Vincenzo Nibali. As Rio draws closer, I have to assume the Shark is honing his form, and this stage suits him perfectly. If he can make the break, he’ll be very hard to beat. Ilnur Zakarin also kept his powder dry Friday and could be a threat.

Chris Froome probably deserves to headline the conversation of potential stage winners out of the GC crowd, but I would imagine he’s planning to play this stage pretty safe, especially after crashing yesterday. In other words, I don’t really know what to expect in terms of his battling for the win.

Romain Bardet is an obvious threat here, given the ability he showed Friday and the downhill run-in to the line. Movistar has options with a rallying Nairo Quintana and an Alejandro Valverde who will probably be able to win a sprint if it comes to that.

Richie Porte, Joaquím Rodríguez, and Dan Martin are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

July 23, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Albertville › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc – 146km

A breakaway is never a sure thing, but Friday’s stage looks great for the early escape, coming on the heels of a tough TT, with a profile that should make the racing hard to control, and a mountain stage still on the horizon to temper the pace among the GC riders.

Though there are strangely no KOM points on offer at the summit, the uncategorized opening climb could day’s move could jump clear. From there the riders will have to deal with four categorized ascents en route to the finish line atop the final challenge. The last two climbs are the most important of the stage. The HC rated Montée de Bisanne probably comes too far from the line to spring a winning move, but at 8.2% for 12.4km, it will definitely whittle down both the break and the GC men.

The finishing climb, 9.8km at 8%, will likely see any organized groups shatter into ones and twos. It’s not that long, but I expect it to favor the real climbing specialists.

Rafal Majka is a great candidate for success in Stage 19. I’ve said before that I see him as the best climber out of the obvious breakaway types right now, and that makes him a strong contender here.

The same is true for Ilnur Zakarin, who looked brilliant in Stage 17. He’s really shown himself to be a top-notch climber of the course of the last year and a half.

I have a hard time rating Jarlinson Pantano’s chances, but he’s certainly a rider to watch. Three weeks ago I might have said this stage was a bit challenging for Pantano to be a top favorite but he’s looked so good in this Tour that the sky is really the limit right now.

Vincenzo Nibali, Pierre Rolland, Dani Navarro, Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are others who stand out as clear long-range candidates, while Tejay van Garderen, now 17 minutes down on GC, might be a rider to watch from the breakaway at this point as well.

Should this come down to the GC men, Chris Froome is an obvious favorite, though if he follows the approach of past Tours de France he may be content to play things relatively conservatively now. That makes Richie Porte especially dangerous, given how strong he’s looked the past few days. Fabio Aru, Romain Bardet, and, of course, Nairo Quintana are others who could find themselves in the hunt for the stage win.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Ilnur Zakarin | 3. Chris Froome

July 22, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Sallanches › Megève – 17km (ITT)

The Tour’s 18th stage is an unusual time trial that fits somewhere between a traditional chrono and a hill climb. The day starts out flat and finishes on a downhill, but there is a challenging ascent in the middle of the route—from kilometer 4 to kilometer 14.5 is a stretch of irregular climbing with an average gradient of a little over 6%. The topography is particularly difficult just at the start.

I see three riders as standing head and shoulders above the rest in the favorites conversation. The stage favors all-rounders, which makes this a great day for Chris Froome, who balances chrono ability with climbing legs probably better than anyone on the start list. Until Stage 13, it had been a while since we’d seen Froome lighting up against the clock, but there’s little doubt he’s as strong as ever now.

Richie Porte fits the bill as well. I think a lackluster Stage 13 could partially be written off as a result of lingering injury after his Stage 12 crash. He looked great Wednesday.

Tom Dumoulin is the other rider to watch. Obviously this is a much more climber-friendly TT than Stage 13, but Dumoulin is quite a strong climber in his own right, as evidenced in last year’s Vuelta, last week’s Arcalis stage, and a number of other times in his career. For me he’s the third favorite here, but it’s a pretty slim margin.

For stage win outsiders, look to Adam Yates, Bauke Mollema, Nairo Quintana, Ilnur Zakarin, and Ion Izagirre.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Tom Dumoulin

July 21, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Berne › Finhaut-Emosson – 184.5km

Wednesday’s stage to Finhaut-Emosson has a terrific finale that should provide quite a show. After 150 kilometers without much to offer in terms of difficult topography, the day finishes with the one-two punch of a Cat. 1 ascent and then an HC-rated finishing climb. There’s not really much downtime between the climbs either, as they’re separated by a fast descent of around 7km.

By the time the riders are midway up the final climb, they’ll be pretty beat. On an average gradient of over 8%, that’s a recipe for action.

I think the profile does give the peloton a decent chance to catch the early break – the long-distance hopefuls will certainly have a chance – but I particularly like the chances of a few fringe GC contenders who might be given some freedom to attack a few kilometers from the finish. I’m expecting Chris Froome to play things a little more conservatively in the final week, and though he’s certainly a top favorite himself to win this stage, I think he might allow a rider like Romain Bardet to jump clear late in the day.

Fabio Aru, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are others far enough back on GC to maybe get some leeway. Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte, Bauke Mollema, and Adam Yates will all likely draw counter moves if they attack, though that doesn’t necessarily rule them out, especially if Quintana can get into gear the way we’ve seen in past Tours de France.

For breakaway candidates, the usual suspects will be in play: Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Thomas De Gendt, Tom Dumoulin, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are all riders to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Romain Bardet | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Nairo Quintana

July 20, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Moirans-en-Montagne › Berne – 209km

The final stage before the Tour’s second rest day has a deceptively simple profile that looks like a golden opportunity for the sprinters, but a few factors could complicate things. Sure, there’s only one categorized climb on the menu and it’s a Cat. 4 that probably shouldn’t have been categorized at all, but the distance marks this as one of the longer stages in the race, and it comes after a tough day of climbing. With a rest day on tap for Tuesday, it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility that the bunch decides to take it slow—they’ve done a fair bit of that this year. That opens the door for a break.

And then there’s the finish. There are two uphill sections inside the last 3km that could have a serious impact on the finale, particularly the second stretch of 600 meters at 6.5%. The road flattens out for the last kilometer, but the lighter guys might have already won the positioning battle by that point if this comes down to a sprint.

With those things in mind, I’d say Peter Sagan is my favorite for the stage because of his ability to win from the break, in a messy finale, or even a straight up bunch kick with all the big names. This is a good chance for Sagan to nab his third win of this year’s Tour.

Alexander Kristoff is another strong option—he probably won’t try for the break, but the distance shouldn’t bother him and he’s looked better and better as the race goes on. The same could be said for John Degenkolb.

Bryan Coquard will love the finale, and will be itching for another shot at a stage win after narrowly missing out last week. So too will Michael Matthews, who thrives on gradients like these, and Greg Van Avermaet, who could find this hard enough to get into the mix.

Then there’s the big three of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, and Mark Cavendish. I think Cavendish has proven that he has the clear edge, so I’d pick him to win if all the top names are there, but it’s close.

Don’t discount a long-range winner either. Watch out for Thomas De Gendt, Tommy Voeckler, Fabian Cancellara, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin, and Edvald Boasson Hagen as potential breakaway winners.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alexander Kristoff | 3. Mark Cavendish

July 18, 2016