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Tour de France 2016: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Montpellier › Mont Ventoux – 178km

Thursday’s stage was supposed to be the day the GC contenders really clashed for the first time in this Tour, but windy weather in France has forced the organizers to shorten the stage—what was originally set to be a finish atop Mont Ventoux is now a finish 6km earlier at the Chalet Reynard. Given Ventoux’s odd geographic situation, far from any other serious climbs and therefore the only really hard ascent on the profile, that reduces the impact the stage will probably have.

Stage 12 will be still be a big challenge, however, as the now 14km finishing climb is still plenty steep. Plus, I think the racers will be starting to feel a need to pressure Chris Froome, who seems to pick up time every day. And by “the racers,” I mostly mean Nairo Quintana. There’s a chance this stage comes down to long-range attacker, but I think the Froome vs. Quintana showdown will be the main even Thursday.

I’m going to give Froome the slight edge. He’s beaten Quintana here before, and I’ve seen little so far this race to suggest he can’t do it again, though it certainly wouldn’t be a big surprise if Quintana were to nab the day.

I do expect attacks from the likes of Richie Porte and Romain Bardet to garner the attention of their rivals, which could make it hard to get away, but they’ll have a shot. Fabio Aru and Joaquím Rodríguez might get a bit of breathing room, making them dangerous. Personally, I’ll be watching to Dan Martin and Adam Yates to see if they can really hack it on a climb like this. Yellow is a real possibility for either of them if Froome is too focused on Quintana to chase.

There’s also a decent chance of a breakaway winner in Stage 12. Rafal Majka would be my top favorite there, with Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Steve Cummings, and Thomas De Gendt as other options.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rafal Majka

July 14, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Carcassonne › Montpellier – 162.5km

Fortunately, the Tour’s 11th stage is relatively short, because the profile doesn’t have much to offer in the way of interesting features. Unless the peloton really screws this one up, Wednesday should be a sprinter’s day.

I expect a bunch kick for the pure specialists, which means I’m going to have trouble making my prognostications all that compelling: as usual, it should be all about Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel. I’m going to stubbornly pick Marcel Kittel for this stage despite Cav’s success in the Tour so far.

I think the probably traditional mass sprint here favors Kittel, if only slightly—especially since Cav’s top leadout man Mark Renshaw is out of the Tour. And while I see Cavendish as a very close contender just as worth of favorite status, don’t count Greipel simply because he hasn’t won yet. He can run a bit hot and cold, and if he’s hot in Stage 11, he could very well win.

Beyond that big three it’s more of the same in terms of possible outsiders. Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, and Alexander Kristoff headline a list that also includes Dylan Groenewegen, Edward Theuns, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, and perhaps Sam Bennett, if he’s feeling up for it.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

July 13, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany › Revel – 197km

Tuesday’s stage is a tough one to forecast thanks to a small climb late in the day, though the rest of the stage will probably be relatively mundane. The Port d’Envalira is one heck of a climb but it comes so early in the action it’s not going to have much of an impact on the racing other than probably setting up the early break.

Then it’s a long descent and about 130km of mostly flat roads before the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, 1.8km at 6.6%, crested 7km from the finish. The road only really flattens out for the final 3km.

This stage could go any number of ways. It’s possible the break takes it, in case the sprinters’ teams aren’t all that interested in keeping the escapees under control with a testy finish on offer. It’s possible the bunch gets to the finish together, though slightly reduced from the late climb. It’s possible someone attacks out of the peloton on the climb. And it’s possible that the stage ends in a sprint. That’s a lot of options.

I like Peter Sagan to win the stage because he could triumph in any one of those four scenarios. He’s looked great even in the pure bunch sprints so far in the race, not to mention his skills as a solo artist and puncheur. He can be in the mix no matter what happens in Stage 10.

I think there’s a decent probability of a bunch sprint, too, so Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel could all be in play. Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, and in particular, Bryan Coquard are especially dangerous given the profile.

I see Tony Gallopin as a nice option to attack for the win. He’ll love the finale. Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Fabian Cancellara, and Steve Cummings could get involved with a long-range strike as well.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Bryan Coquard | 3. Tony Gallopin

July 12, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2016, Part II

Episode 48: Tour de France 2016 Show, Part II

The Recon Ride reviews the Tour’s first nine stages and looks ahead at what’s to come over the next week.

[powerpress]

The Tour de France is in full swing. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the state of affairs in the Tour so far and dig into the next few days of racing, which include some big mountains and a crucial time trial.

Photo by Chaumurky (CC).

July 11, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9: Vielha Val d’Aran › Andorre Arcalis – 184.5km

The last day of racing before the first rest day, Stage 9 should be a real GC showdown, especially since Stage 7 and 8 lacked much in the way of major time gaps. The profile certainly provides ample opportunity. There is very little flat along the road to Arcalis, with several uncategorized uphill stretches to go along with the many downhill kilometers.

The first four categorized climbs should serve to soften up the legs considerably. Then comes the final climb, an hors categorie challenge of 10.1km at 7.2%. Particularly in its position as the day’s fifth hard climb, the Arcalis will undoubtedly draw out attacks.

The up-and-down nature of this profile will have the breakers excited about their chances, but with the GC still so open I wouldn’t be surprised to the teams of the yellow jersey hopefuls keeping any long-range move on a short leash. As such, Stage 9 could come down to a battle among all the big GC stars.

Chris Froome remains my favorite for the tough mountain stages. Although he gained some time in Stage 8, it wasn’t much, and I think Froome is still hoping to deliver that early coup de grace for which he has become known. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen here. His team looked great Saturday.

Nairo Quintana remains the other obvious choice in the mountains. Sure, he sort of got caught sleeping in Stage 8, but he appeared to be climbing well and that’s what will matter on these gradients. His Movistar teammate Alejandro Valverde can’t be counted out either.

On peak form Fabio Aru is a top pick here but he’s a bit of an unknown right now. Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rui Costa, and Joaquím Rodríguez have nice potential among the GC men as well, particularly if it comes down to a small group late.

Rafal Majka and Thibaut Pinot could try to get back into the mix too after spending time in the breakaway Saturday—both are talented enough to win from the pack or the break, making them extra dangerous. The long list of other potential breakers includes Alberto Contador, Steve Cummings, Rubén Plaza, and Ilnur Zakarin.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Richie Porte

July 10, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Pau › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 184km

With four serious climbs on the menu, Stage 8 has the potential to really shake up the General Classification. Though the day won’t finish on an ascent, the challenging climbs could split up the even the big overall favorites. I expect some action from the yellow jersey hopefuls on the Col de Peyresourde (7.1km at 7.8%), though maybe not before.

If Chris Froome follows the formula that has already won him two Tours de France, he’ll play this stage aggressively. And if Chris Froome is in form, I expect him to be the strongest climber in the race, as he has so often proven to be early on in past Tours. The question is whether he’ll repeat the strategy. It’s likely enough that I see him as the favorite here.

Nairo Quintana is of course another top favorite for any crucial mountain stage. He should be in shape here. I do wonder, however, whether Alejandro Valverde might get the green light to go for the stage win if the opportunity is there. The finish suits him quite well.

Fringe contenders like Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are good candidates here, as the GC men might allow them to ride off the front. The Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Vincenzo Nibali could also make something happen, as could the BMC duo of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte—but it’ll take a lot of effort for them to escape the pack.

And should a break take the stage, watch out for the likes of Rubén Plaza, Ilnur Zakarin, and Thomas De Gendt. I like the chances of the GC types on Stage 8, but the escapees will have a very real shot as well.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Nairo Quintana

July 9, 2016