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Tour Down Under 2017 Preview

A revamped WorldTour gets started Tuesday in Australia with the 2017 Tour Down Under. VeloHuman previews the action as a familiar collection of names gets set to battle for the first stage race crown of the season over six days of racing in and around Adelaide.

The Route

The Tour Down Under has concocted a winning formula over its relatively short history, finding solid climbs and urban circuits to liven up an event with no small need of proving itself worthy of attention during an unorthodox time for most pros to race bikes. This year’s route stays the course with several well-known TDU locations, while providing a few new challenges that certainly fit the mold.

The race kicks off with a sprinter’s day from Unley to Lyndoch before the GC battle heats up with a more climber-friendly second stage. A tricky one-two punch at the end of the stage will likely create gaps in Paracombe.

The lumpy circuit that closes out stage 3 in Victor Harbor may also spring attackers, though tougher sprinters might be able to hold on. The speedsters will have another chance in stage 4.

The iconic Willunga Hill once again serves as the Tour Down Under’s queen stage on the fifth day. A pair of ascents to the finish line could decide the race, if it’s not already decided. A sprinters’ stage 6 closes things out in Adelaide.

The General Classification Favorites

The Tour Down Under’s unusual calendar location make it a somewhat unique target that seems to attract the same few contenders every year. Many are Australian, but not all.

Simon Gerrans is the defending champion, an Australian flying the flag of an Australian team. Elite on hilly profiles and packing a strong finishing kick, the veteran has the perfect skillset for this race—but at age 36, he is harder to see as the clear favorite. Orica-Scott teammate Esteban Chaves is a pretty impressive alternative.

Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis give BMC quite a one-two punch as well. Porte seems to be the guy for a very strong squad, and he has quite a history in this race, with multiple wins atop Willunga Hill. Not as punchy as other contenders, he has never won the overall title, usually lacking just a few bonus seconds to reach the top step of the GC podium, but with Gerrans another year older, maybe this is his year. 2015 winner Dennis can’t be counted out either, despite a stated focus on learning this season.

Neither of Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Sergio Henao is Australian, but this is a race that has seen both do well. Henao in particular has plenty of punch to hunt bonus seconds. Third in 2016, he’s certainly an overall contender this year.

The best-known name on the startlist, reigning world champ Peter Sagan, certainly merits a mention in the GC discussion as well. He’s certainly capable of winning this race, but motivation is a big question. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in form to outclimb a rider like Porte or Chaves on these hills in January, but you never know with Sagan.

Cannondale-Drapac’s Michael Woods and Tom-Jelte Slagter make a fine duo with punchy legs. UAE Abu Dhabi’s Diego Ulissi has had success in this race in the past, with just the right toolset for the short steep finales that typically decide the event.
Nathan Haas, Robert Gesink, Jay McCarthy, Jesús Herrada, Wilco Kelderman, Jarlinson Pantano, Gianluca Brambilla, Rafael Valls, Luis León Sánchez, and Lachlan Morton are others to watch this week in Australia.

The Stagehunters

Caleb Ewan looks to be the class of the sprinting field along with the aforementioned Peter Sagan, whose goals remain to be seen. Sagan’s Bora-Hansgrohe teammate Sam Bennett may also feature in the fast finishes, along with Danny Van Poppel, Niccolo Bonifazio, Edward Theuns, Mark Renshaw, Ben Swift, and Nikias Arndt.

VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites

Winner: Richie Porte
Podium: Simon Gerrans, Sergio Henao
Other Top Contenders: Geraint Thomas, Esteban Chaves, Rohan Dennis, Diego Ulissi, Michael Woods, Robert Gesink, Peter Sagan

January 16, 2017
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour Down Under 2017

Episode 61: Tour Down Under 2017 Pre-race Show

Many of the pro peloton’s top names kick off their seasons this week at the Tour Down Under. The Recon Ride previews the WorldTour opener.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm get the 2017 season underway with a Tour Down Under pre-race show. The podcast talks storylines, route, and favorites ahead of the Australian one-weeker.

Photo by robdownunder (CC).

January 15, 2017
The Recon Ride Podcast: 2016 Offseason

Episode 60: 2016 Offseason Show

With the 2016 WorldTour in the books, the Recon Ride preps for a few months without top-level racing, and looks ahead to the coming season as well.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm close out the 2016 podcasting campaign with a show focused on the offseason and also the year of racing to come.

Photo by ian_woodhead1 (CC).

November 14, 2016
World Championships 2016: Road Race Preview

After several worlds road races made for the puncheurs, climbers, and classics specialists, the 2016 world championship should come down to a bunch sprint. The Doha parcours does not much in the way of challenging topography, but if you’re a fan of mass gallops, this is a rainbow jersey battle you won’t want to miss.

The Route

Barring a race shortening for extreme heat, the men’s peloton will ride 257.5 kilometers Sunday in Qatar. The first 150 kilometers of the race will take the riders through the desert before they enter a twisting circuit on the manmade Pearl island in Doha. Though there are no climbs to speak of along the route, seven laps of 15.2km with plenty of hairpins and corners could certainly see some hectic racing.

The final 2km of the circuit are not without handling challenges, meaning that the expected sprint will require finesse in addition to speed—there is a right hairpin leading into the final kilometer, which then swings gently to the right on the run-in to the line. Positioning will be key in the waning moments of the race.

The Contenders

I see four riders as being the most worthy of favorite status in Doha: the top three fastest sprinters of the last few years – Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, and Marcel Kittel – and the reigning world champ, Peter Sagan.

To me, Cavendish seems best-positioned for the rainbow jersey given the excellent season he’s had and a course that puts handling and acceleration at a premium. The way he dominated the Tour’s sprints, it’s hard not to like his chances in Qatar.

German teammates Greipel and Kittel are worth watching too, of course, though each comes with question marks. Greipel can disappear in tricky finishes and hasn’t had quite the season in 2016 that he had in 2015, while Kittel, despite his incredible speed in peak form, just hasn’t looked at his best this year. Both are dangerous regardless, as is German John Degenkolb.

Sagan is the wildcard. He’s not quite as speedy in a pure sprint after a shorter Grand Tour stage, but anything goes after 250km and in a hectic finale. I expect Sagan to perform very well given his knack for placing highly in this sort of race, even if the win seems like a lot to ask.

Beyond those big names are several second-tier speedsters hoping to steal the show. Fernando Gaviria of Colombia and France’s Nacer Bouhanni are the two biggest names for me. Both showed by reaching the final kilometer of Milano-Sanremo this year that they can handle distance (though Gaviria crashed out of that race) and both have terrific acceleration. At the end of a long season, things could get unpredictable, and they seem most likely to take advantage if the likes of Cav and Greipel miss a beat. Arnaud Démare and Bryan Coquard are great alternatives for France should Bouhanni find himself lacking on the day.

Alexander Kristoff has not had a perfect year but few riders have his power in a fast finish after a long day. Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani give Italy a nice combination. Caleb Ewan and Michael Matthews are a terrific dynamic duo for Australia. Dylan Groenewegen and Danny van Poppel look strong for the Netherlands, while Belgium has Tom Boonen and Jens Debuscherre for a sprint.

Meanwhile, Greg Van Avermaet will be looking to surprise the sprinters with a late attack. Also watch out for the likes of Niki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar, Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Magnus Cort Nielsen if an opportunity for an escape arises late in the afternoon.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Mark Cavendish
Podium: André Greipel, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fernando Gaviria, Marcel Kittel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Arnaud Démare

October 16, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: World Championship Road Race 2016

Episode 59: World Championship Road Race 2016 Pre-race Show

Has it really been a year (more, even) since Peter Sagan won his rainbow jersey in Richmond? The world title is up for grabs again in Doha, Qatar, and the Recon Ride is here to preview the course and the favorites.

[powerpress]

The sprinters get their shot at the rainbow jersey Sunday in Qatar. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at the route, the startlist, and the storylines, with some help from veteran cycling journo Andy Hood…

Photo by Sean Rowe (CC).

October 14, 2016
Il Lombardia 2016 Preview

Saturday’s long race from Como to Bergamo is the last chance for the climbers to nab a big result this season. Always a scenic event and typically quite entertaining, Il Lombardia should be especially interesting this year as the race looks wide open for the taking.

The Route

The 2016 edition of Il Lombardia looks harder than ever, with climbs aplenty dotting the 241-kilometer route. After 100 rolling kilometers comes the Valcava climb, hard enough to force a selection in a grand tour, and then four short but steep ascents in rapid succession. Then comes a long descent to the final kick, the Bergamo Alta, just over a kilometer at nearly 8%. From the top, it’s less then 4km to the finish, most of that downhill.

Serious climbing ability and descending skills alike will be critical for anyone hoping to win this race. Bad-weather bike handling ability could come in handy as well, with a potential for rain in the forecast, and a fast finish may be necessary should things end in a reduced sprint on the short stretch of flat road that closes out the day. In other words, this is a race for a true all-rounder.

The Contenders

2015 champ Vicenzo Nibali isn’t racing this year, opening things up a bit. Alejandro Valverde, normally a good place to start the favorites conversation, is apparently coming into the race after having been sick. His form is questionable. Daniel Moreno, second last year, may be a better option for Movistar—though his form is a bit of an unknown as well.

Two-time former champion Joaquím Rodríguez is another name with plenty of career success in this race—but he too comes into Il Lombardia with question marks. Returning to racing from months of “retirement,” Purito can hardly be expected to be in top shape. He’s worth watching, but others seem to be stronger contenders.

For me, 2014 winner Dan Martin is as worthy a top favorite as any. He has looked to be in great shape this year, but at the same time, he has yet to take any really big victories all season, so the motivation should be high. The course may be a bit too climber-friendly, but he has plenty of punch for the finale. Julian Alaphilippe is a terrific option for EQS as well. His performance at the European Championships would suggest the form is there, while Gianluca Brambilla is yet another card to play.

Astana may be without Nibali, but Fabio Aru gives them a top favorite in his stead. Aru isn’t the most explosive rider and his one-day résumé is not particularly inspiring, but it’s hard to count him out for a mountainous race in Italy, especially with talented teammates Diego Rosa and Miguel Ángel López at his side.

Rigoberto Urán has gotten away from his early career successes in the one-days, but he’s had a nice year and appears to be enthusiastic about seeking results in the Classics now. This is a great race for him.

Esteban Chaves is another top pick for a number of prognosticators, though I’m not sure I am as sold on his chances. He’s obviously a great climber but he has never focused on one-day racing and this is not just any one-day event, either. Simon Yates is another option for Orica.

Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi give Lampre a nice one-two punch. Ditto for Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin at Lotto-Soudal. Sky is loaded with options in Wout Poels, Mikel Landa, and Michal Kwiatkowski. Robert Gesink, Wilco Kelderman, Tom Dumoulin, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Fabio Felline, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, and Greg Van Avermaet are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Dan Martin
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Fabio Aru
Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Julian Alaphilippe, Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Esteban Chaves, Wout Poels

Photo by corto.maltese (CC).

September 30, 2016