2015 Offseason Show
With Il Lombardia, Paris-Tours, and the Abu Dhabi Tour in the books, most of the riders in the pro peloton are now enjoying some well-deserved time off, so the Recon Ride p/b VeloNews is getting into offseason mode too. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano team up for one last podcast episode of 2015, with VeloNews.com editor Spencer Powlison providing some added insight.
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Photo: Tim De Waele | TDWsport.com
Il Lombardia, the final race of the 2015 WorldTour, kicks of Sunday in Bergamo, Italy. 245 kilometers of up and down in Italy’s Lombardy region, Il Lombardia (formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia) is the last of the five Monument Classics on the cycling calendar. The organizers have tinkered with the profile over the course of the last few years, but a unique Northern Italian character, incredible lakeside scenery, and thrilling finishes are constant features in Il Lombardia, making it a great event to close out the season in style.
Be sure to check out the latest Recon Ride powered by VeloNews, with special insight from cycling expert and Lombardy local Gregor Brown, for more on what makes Il Lombardia stand out as a legendary bike race.
Il Lombardia gets progressively harder as the day goes on. After leaving Bergamo, the peloton will enjoy nearly 50km of flat before the road angles upward for the Colle Gallo, 7.4km at 6%. After a descent it’s another mostly flat stretch for nearly 50km once again before the long, low-gradient Colle Brianza. Another downhill leads to another flat stretch before things get a bit lumpier in the run-up to a very difficult pairing of climbs: the Madonna del Ghisallo and the Colma di Sormano.
Ghisallo is an irregular climb whose average gradient doesn’t really tell the whole story. All told it’s 8.6km at an average grade of 6.2%, but it’s really a three-part climb, starting out with about 3.5km at around 9%, flattening out (even running downhill for a bit) for 4km or so, and then kicking up again at nearly 10% for the rest of the way to the top. Unfortunately for the riders, there won’t be much of a chance to rest after the climb is crested—a fast descent leads into the foot of the brutal Colma di Sormano (with a particularly challenging stretch known as the Muro di Sormano).
The climb opens with a little over 5km at 6.6%. Then things suddenly get extremely difficult. The final 1.9km have an average gradient of 15.8%, with one stretch at over 25%, which will undoubtedly see many riders dropped off the back. At least the view is nice.
As hard as the Ghisallo-Sormano combo is, the race is far from over after the pack crests the latter, as there are still about 50 kilometers left to race. From the top of the Sormano it’s a tricky descent into a flat section of about 15km, where we can expect things to get very cagey as riders jockey for position for the finale.
With a little over 21km to go the riders will hit the foot of the Civiglio, 4.2km at a vicious 9.7%. It’s consistently steep the whole way up. Then comes a very steep descent that runs into the foot of the final climb of the race, the San Fermo della Battaglia, 2.7km at 7.2%. Expect plenty of action here if the race isn’t blown to pieces already. Once the riders go over the summit, it’s a little over 3km downhill and then just 1.5km of flat to the finish line in Como.
This year’s route strongly favors the explosive climbing stars. A fast finish will be useful in case a small group comes to the line together, but the finale will make it very hard for riders to sit in and hold out for a big sprint. The pack will be thinned out after so much climbing, and a pair of steep launching pads in the last 20km will provide the aggressive riders with plenty of space to go on the move. Some technical descents will further favor the attackers. Those descents could get even more technical with a chance of some rain on Sunday—rain is as much a classic feature of Il Lombardia as the scenery along Lake Como, and it figures to at least play a part this year.
Alejandro Valverde’s combination of elite climbing legs, strong descending skills, Classics grit, and an excellent sprint make him an obvious entrant in the favorites conversation. Although he’s never won the race, he has been the runner-up for two years in a row now. 5th in the World Championship Road Race, he’s still in-shape even at the end of a very long season, and this is a race he’s been trying to win for a little while now. Giovanni Visconti makes for an strong second. For me, the big question mark next to Valverde’s name is whether he will be aggressive enough to take the victory—I don’t think he can take his usual approach (staying in the wheels for a reduced sprint) into this race and expect to win, with a finale so well-tailored to a do-or-die attack.
One rider who probably won’t hesitate to launch an all-or-nothing strike is Vincenzo Nibali. It’s been a down year for Nibali, and he’s never managed to take the big one-day victory he has long sought (other than Plouay back in 2006), but he’s in great form right now and this course suits him perfectly. Nibali is not a good sprinter, meaning that he’ll need to drop everyone and win this thing solo, but the gradients on the final climbs and the tricky descents that follow should give him plenty of chances to do that. Fabio Aru, Diego Rosa, and Mikel Landa are other strong options for a stacked Astana squad.
Dan Martin won Il Lombardia in 2014, but he’s only just returned to racing after a shoulder injury knocked him out of the Vuelta, which could hurt his chances of repeating. Still, this course suits him as well as ever (of his six career participations, he’s finished in the Top 10 four times in this race) and an encouraging showing in Milano-Torino (he was 14th) suggests that he’s already back in shape to contend. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a great alternative for Cannondale-Garmin if Dan Martin isn’t at 100%.
Speaking of past winners, Joaquím Rodríguez won Il Lombardia in 2012 and 2013, but he’s a late scratch this year after hurting his knee in training. Daniel Moreno will attempt to take up the flag for Katusha, and he’s not a rider to be underestimated.
Philippe Gilbert is certainly not the rider he was back when he took the win here in 2010, but he’s looked pretty strong this year and appears to be in decent late-season form. The finale suits him well, if he can make it all the way over the tough climbs. Samuel Sánchez will be a fine second. Greg Van Avermaet was originally going to ride this race as well, but he withdrew from the startlist upon returning from Richmond a bit jet-lagged.
Rui Costa was 3rd in 2014 and I expect him to contend for the win this year. He tends to attract less attention than he maybe should given his excellent array of abilities, and I think that could come in particularly handy on this profile. I wouldn’t be surprised if the peloton let him jump clear on one of the final two climbs only to see him hold out all the way to the line. Diego Ulissi is a nice backup option for Lampre-Merida.
Tim Wellens has had his sights set on improving last season’s 4th place all year long. This profile will really put him to the test, but like Costa and Nibali, he’s not afraid to go all-in on an attack, and he often gets a bit more breathing room than maybe he should (as was the case when his two-man move in the GP Montréal managed to go the distance). Tony Gallopin will also be on the limit on this course but will be a huge threat if he holds out to the finish.
AG2R sends a powerhouse team to Il Lombardia, with Domenico Pozzovivo, Romain Bardet, and Alexis Vuillermoz all capable of being in the mix. The French outfit isn’t well-known for its one-day prowess but Pozzovivo and Bardet in particular have had a few nice showings in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and this route should be even better for them. On the other side of the French team coin is FDJ, a squad sending only one strong contender this race in Thibaut Pinot, a rider who doesn’t have anything to speak of in the realm one-day results—but who is in good shape right now.
Rafal Majka was 3rd here back in 2013 and looks to be strong right now. Michal Kwiatkowski is also showing great end-of-year form for Etixx-QuickStep, and he hasn’t done much historically in this race, the profile should suit him. Orica-GreenEdge sends a team full of options: Adam and Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, Simon Gerrans, and Michael Albasini will all have a chance here. Expect OGE to try to stick a rider in every legitimate move. Trek has Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fränk Schleck. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman are worth watching. Former three-time winner Damiano Cunego, Sergio Henao, Wout Poels, Davide Rebellin, Rodolfo Torres, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are other riders who could be in the mix.
Winner: Vincenzo Nibali
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Tim Wellens, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibaut Pinot, Daniel Moreno
As the last WorldTour race of the season, Il Lombardia is also the last event that VeloHuman will preview in 2015. I hope you’ve enjoyed the year as much as I have! Follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay up-to-date with the cycling world through the cold, dark offseason. The Tour Down Under will be here before you know it!
The Recon Ride joins forces with VeloNews once again, this time to preview the route and the favorites of Il Lombardia — also known as the Giro di Lombardia, the Tour of Lombardy, or even The Race of the Falling Leaves — the final WorldTour event of 2015.
Il Lombardia 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride p/b VeloNews previews the final WorldTour race of the year, Il Lombardia. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route and favorites with a bit of help from veteran journalist and Lombardy resident Gregor Brown.
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Photo: Tim De Waele | TDWsport.com
The Richmond World Championships week concludes with the elite men’s road race, which will decide who earns the right to rainbow stripes for the next 12 months. It’s been a long stretch of post-Tour of tune-up races, but it’s time for the international peloton to put it on the line in the fight for cycling’s biggest one-day prize.
The men’s elite road race runs 261.4 kilometers in total. Starting just outside town at the University of Richmond, the peloton will roll into a road circuit of 16.2km, completing a slightly reduced lap on the way to the first passing of the line then, and then riding 15 more to the race finish.
The circuit starts out fast, with mostly flat or downhill roads, but things get both lumpy and technical in the final few kilometers. There are three climbs to speak of that will likely spur plenty of action late in the race, with plenty of twists and turns thrown in along the way to give the attackers a hand in escape attempts. First up is the cobbled Libby Hill climb, 200 meters at about 8%. Then comes a short flat stretch and a fast descent into the foot of the very steep 23rd street climb, also on cobblestones, 100 meters at over 10%. After one last downhill run comes the Governor’s Street climb, 300 meters at about 7%. The climb evens out about 700 meters from the finish, though the rest of the way angles just slightly upward.
There is a wide variety of opinions on how this race will play out (a topic covered at length in the Recon Ride podcast p/b VeloNews, which is absolutely worth checking out). A glance at the cumulative vertical meters wouldn’t suggest that this profile is particularly difficult, but the climbs come in fast succession, the first two are cobbled, and things are technical enough that riders will be on edge all day. Throw in a high chance of a rain and what appears to be a less challenging course could get very messy.
It’s hard to say whether the race will come down to a sprint or to a late escape. The severity of the weather could make the difference. In any case, the flatter finish will make sprinting legs a major asset for the rainbow jersey hopefuls. There are several riders in Richmond who combine impressive top-end speed with respectable climbing legs and classics-style grit, and it is those riders who stand out as the top favorites for what has to be described as a wide open worlds road race.
Alexander Kristoff is certainly among the top names in the race. If Kristoff can bring the form he showed in the Tour of Flanders into this race, he’ll be deadly: he didn’t wait around for large group sprint in that race, instead attacking late on with Niki Terpstra and holding out for the win. If he can win on the more challenging parcours of De Ronde, he should be able to handle Richmond if the form is there, latching onto a small group if need be. Recent showings in the Arctic Race of Norway, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France, and the GP Québec suggest that he’s in great shape. His Norwegian squad brings only six riders, but there are enough sprinters in the race to probably keep things under control, so I don’t really see the six-man squad at much of a disadvantage. Speaking of Norwegian teammates, Edvald Boasson Hagen will be an excellent second card to play for the squad, on blazing form right now and on a course that suits hits talents.
John Degenkolb beat Kristoff in Milano-Sanremo this year, and worked his own late-escape-magic to take the victory in Paris-Roubaix. Again, if the form is there, Degenkolb should thrive, though he hasn’t had quite a successful Worlds buildup as Kristoff. He also hasn’t had quite as much success on cobbled climbs over the years, so it’s hard to say how he’ll feel about Libby Hill. In any case, he’s a huge threat to win if he’s in shape, and a powerhouse German squad is ready to set him up for the victory. André Greipel is on the squad as well, and will be an obvious favorite if he can survive the tough day.
Peter Sagan has just the perfect skillset for this course: he’s an excellent bike handler, he loves the short climbs, and he can be in the mix with the best in a sprint. I will be very surprised if he’s not on the podium at the end of the day. A moto crash at the Vuelta interrupted his buildup campaign but he should still be in good shape to fight for the win. The biggest challenge will be the distance, as his Grand Tour stage-winning sprinting legs have often lost a bit of luster at the end of long Classics.
Michael Matthews is the other sprinting talent who stands out as a top favorite. On the one hand, I like his climbing legs and love his form right now after an impressive showing in Québec. I also think Australia will ride well in support of him. On the other hand, Matthews’s talents have not yet translated into all that much one-day success compared to his top rivals here, and a long and potentially hectic Worlds course will be a tough place for him to make the leap to the next level. Still, he’s a big threat, and his top-end speed may be underrated by some. Teammate Simon Gerrans is an unknown for Australia: the course suits him, but form is a total question mark after several crashes this season. Obviously keep an eye on the two-time Monument winner.
The Belgian squad starts the two riders I see as most likely to win the race with a late solo move, as well as a few other contenders. Greg Van Avermaet is my top pick on the team. This is a good route for him, with steep cobbled sections to escape the pack and twists and turns to stay clear. If he comes to the line in a small group, Van Avermaet packs a strong sprint. I expect to see him near the top of the leaderboard after 261.4km. Philippe Gilbert could also get involved. The climbs might not be as long as he’d prefer but he’s looked good this year and his strong team should be able to set him up nicely for an attack. Sep Vanmarcke and Tom Boonen are other good options.
Speaking of Classics riders, Zdenek Stybar should thrive here—he’s in shape, he loves cobbled climbs, and he’s not being talked about as much as the fast finishers. The former cyclocross world champion will shine if the rain makes things messy.
France has Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni for a potential sprint, but I like the chances of both Julian Alaphilippe and Tony Gallopin even better. Gallopin thrives in selective finishes, and Alaphilippe was active in the Canadian GPs.
Defending world champion Michal Kwiatkowski will have his work cut out for him trying to hold onto the rainbow jersey, but he’s an excellent bike handler and descender who will love the technical finale. He also showed good form in the Canadian GPs even if the results didn’t show much. It would be a mistake to underestimate him. Also likely to be overlooked a bit given the course, 2013 world champ Rui Costa could be involved as well after a strong showing in Montréal.
Niki Terpstra is my top outsider pick for the Worlds Road Race. He looked very strong in the Vuelta, he’s made great strides climbing on the cobbles, and he’s even got speed for a sprint. The Dutch team is strong and it’s been flying under the radar. Tom Dumoulin and Lars Boom are other riders to watch.
Spain may be nominally riding for Alejandro Valverde, and he certainly has a chance with the late climbs, but I’m eying Juan José Lobato as well. His season quieted down after a great start but he looked good in the Tour of Britain and is very fast when in form.
Matti Breschel always seems to show up for Worlds and this course suits him. Italy does not have a team that is particularly suited to the course, but with a huge collection of talents on the squad maybe something will work out. I especially like Matteo Trentin, but there is plenty of firepower on the Italian team. Taylor Phinney will fly the flag for the home nation. This course suits him very well, but it’s impossible to say how his form will hold up over the course of 261.4km in his first big one-day race back from injury. Still, his time trial performance hinted that he’s in good shape. Tyler Farrar is the sprint option for Team U.S.A. Ben Swift, Ramunas Navardauskas, Michael Albasini, and Sam Bennett are on the very long list of outsiders who could surprise the big favorites in Richmond.
Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Juan José Lobato, Julian Alaphilippe.
VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.
The Recon Ride found a new home for Worlds! The podcast teamed up with VeloNews to present a world championship road race preview featuring Taylor Phinney and Sep Vanmarcke!