World Championship Road Race 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride podcast is teaming up with VeloNews to preview the men’s elite road race at the 2015 world championships. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano cover the route and the favorites, with insight from Caley Fretz, Sep Vanmarcke, and Taylor Phinney.
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Photo: Tim De Waele | TDWsport.com
With the World Championships well underway, the elite men’s individual time trial title is up for grabs in Richmond. Bradley Wiggins is not around to defend his rainbow jersey, but there are plenty of chrono specialists looking to succeed him as the world champ.
The lion’s share of the 53km men’s ITT course sits outside the city of Richmond. Only in the final few 10km or so do the roads start to get particularly urban. Before that, it’s mostly rolling countryside.
The riders will set out from the King’s Dominion amusement park and work their way south into town, where the route gets slightly (but not a lot) more technical in the final run-in to the finish.
While the profile highlights every single small riser and short downhill stretch, this is not a particularly hilly time trial, and we can expect the TT heavyweights to get up to pretty high speeds.
Tony Martin, in the hunt for his fourth world title, is the top favorite to take the victory. The long, mostly flat course suits him very well, and without Bradley Wiggins around, no one can match Martin in terms of peak ability. It’s been an odd year for Martin, who hasn’t built up as dominant a record in the TTs as he did in 2013 or 2014, but he’s the most accomplished rider on the startlist and in his prime, so it’s hard to bet against him.
Tom Dumoulin ran 3rd in 2014 and has consistently been among cycling’s best against the clock, but it’s hard to know just how strong he’ll be after an exhausting Vuelta. Dumoulin fought hard for a GC position all the way to the final mountain stage, and that takes its toll. Still, he’s had a bit of time to recover and could be in the mix.
Rohan Dennis may be the best-positioned to challenge Martin for the win. It won’t be easy, but Dennis has had an excellent season and proved his form leading BMC Racing to a TTT title on Sunday.
It would be a huge surprise if the world title went to any rider outside that trio. Adriano Malori is among the best of the rest—he’s had a comparatively quiet season at the highest level of racing but has won several Continental Tour TTs, including one very recently over Tony Martin at the Tour de Poitou Charentes.
Pre-injury Taylor Phinney probably expected to be challenging for the world title by 2015, but things haven’t quite gone as planned over the past two seasons. Still, Phinney looks very strong right now and is riding in from of home fans. Given what he proved to be capable of in time trials early on in his career, he can’t be counted out.
Vasil Kiryienka was very impressive in the Giro’s long time trial and always does well at Worlds. Alex Dowsett can run hot and cold but (along with Malori) he had enough form to help Movistar to a podium spot in the TTT Sunday. Matthias Brändle, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta, Luke Durbridge, Rasmus Quaade, Wilco Kelderman, Jonathan Castroviejo, Rigoberto Urán, and Stefan Küng are others to watch.
Winner: Tony Martin
Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis
Other Top Favorites: Adriano Malori, Taylor Phinney, Vasil Kiryienka, Matthias Brändle, Rasmus Quaade, Maciej Bodnar, Jan Bárta
VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of Worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.
The 2015 World Championships get underway with the team time trial, and the showdown for the men’s world title this year should be a good one. The TTT is often a predictable discipline, but there is not one team that can claim to be the sole heavy favorite in Richmond.
The 38.8km course starts in Richmond’s rural suburbs in Henrico County, heading south into town along gently rolling roads. The teams will pass through Richmond but then continue south and reenter Henrico County, before making an about face on open country roads and heading back downtown for the finish.
Things will get a bit technical as the riders make their way along more urban roads towards the line, but all told it’s a pretty straightforward TTT without any serious challenges.
It’s rare for there to be multiple candidates with a decent chance of winning a team time trial, but three teams stand out as potential contenders for the TTT title this year.
BMC Racing comes in as the defending champion. Tejay van Garderen and Peter Velits are missing from that 2014 squad, but the riders taking their places are no slouch. Specialists Taylor Phinney and Stefan Küng should do just fine. BMC has done an excellent job of defending the title throughout the season and should be in the mix again at worlds.
Etixx-QuickStep is the squad most likely to challenge BMC. Always strong in the discipline, EQS could only manage 3rd place in 2014. Replicating that performance shouldn’t be too hard given all the firepower they have (especially with Rigoberto Urán looking very sharp right now), but they want to reclaim the world title. I think the Belgian team has a very good chance, but I might give BMC a very slight edge: QuickStep’s TTT performances have not been quite up to the team’s typically elite standard all year long.
The team time trial is a huge target for Orica-GreenEdge, a squad with several decent chrono riders who always manage to work together to churn out an impressive group effort. Svein Tuft doesn’t have quite the same power that he used to have, however, and while I see GreenEdge as the third contender here, it’s a clear third behind a neck-and-neck BMC and EQS.
Of the rest of the teams vying for the championship title in Richmond, Movistar looks to be the most likely to surprise the three top favorites. The TTT is about a lot more than just putting as many elite ITT specialists into one time, which is why an always well-oiled OGE machine can punch above the weight its collective parts, but there is something to be said for having several very powerful engines all working towards the same goal. Led by Adriano Malori, Alex Dowsett, and Jonathan Castroviejo, Movistar has just that. A podium performance could be within the reach of the Spanish squad.
I see Tinkoff-Saxo, Astana, LottoNL-Jumbo, and Sky as the other potential outsiders, though it would be a huge surprise if any of them could come away with the overall win.
Usually, VH names a full Top 10 of contenders in previews for stage races and one-day events, but since naming 10 teams would cover more than a third of the Worlds TTT field, naming a Top 5 seems like a more fitting approach.
Winner: BMC Racing
Podium: Etixx-QuickStep, Orica-GreenEdge
Other Top Contenders: Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo
VH will be in Richmond to provide plenty of worlds analysis, so stay tuned for coverage throughout the week, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more.
Photo by Bill Dickinson (CC).
After Rigoberto Urán delivered a surprise win in Québec, the racing moves on the Montréal. A slightly hillier course could favor the attackers even more, which will make predicting an already unpredictable race quite a challenge!
The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal takes on 17 laps of a 12.1km circuit for a total distance of 205.7 kilometers. The race starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started.
There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most difficult climb comes almost immediately: the Côte Camillien-Houde, 1.8 kilometers at an 8% average gradient. From the top, there is a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average. There is a particularly steep 200m section of about 11% along the way. After another descent, things even out for a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head right back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the finish. That final run-in is a 560m, 4% climb.
While the startlists are the same and many of the top contenders are the same, the Montréal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Québec. “The two are different,” Rui Costa told VeloHuman from Québec. “Montreal is a race that I think is harder, and more open.”
The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely see a smaller group coming into the final few laps than the peloton in Montréal. An attack on the 8% gradients has a decent chance of holding out over the final few up and down kilometers. The finish in Montreal, however, is a fair bit easier, which means that a select group of escapees could find themselves battling it out in a sprint. Orica-GreenEdge kept the race on lockdown last year, allowing a sizable bunch to finish together, but that was rather unusual for this race, and I’d expect a more select group to battle for the win this time around. Whatever the scenario, explosiveness and excellent climbing legs are important.
It was not a real shocker to see an Etix-QuickStep rider take the win in Québec, given all the firepower they have, though Rigoberto Urán seemed like maybe the fourth best option on his team! In any case, EQS will have another excellent opportunity to nab the win in Montréal. Julian Alaphilippe looked strong in an escape attempt that was ultimately reeled in in Québec, and Michal Kwiatkowski looked particularly impressive chasing down Greg Van Avermaet. Despite Urán’s victory, I still see Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski as the top EQS riders for Montréal, as Urán won’t be taking anyone by surprise this time; in fact, I’d be just as surprised if he won Montréal now that he’s no longer under the radar. Still, watch out for the Colombian: he’s got all the right skills for these races, and although he’s basically taken a two-year hiatus from contending in the Classics, there was a time when he was a top rider for the Ardennes and in Lombardy—and apparently still has those skills hiding under the hood.
Rui Costa has won in Montréal in the past and was runner-up in 2014. Without Simon Gerrans around, I like his chances this year. He looks to be in good form. The biggest question is team leadership. Costa made it into the select group that appeared to have their shot at fighting for the Québec win before hesitation allowed the larger pack to catch back up, but then Lampre-Merida backed Diego Ulissi in the final sprint. The Italian could be a strong contender in Montréal as well. Both riders are great climbers with explosive side, and my first instinct is to see Costa as the man for Montréal given his past performances, but Lampre might not see it that way, which makes it harder to view Costa as an out-and-out favorite.
For most of the day in Québec, BMC looked to be the strongest team in the race, contributing to the chase of the early break and then involving themselves in one attack after another. It didn’t work out in the end, but it showed the team’s strength and that bodes well for Greg Van Avermaet and Philippe Gilbert in Montréal. The selective profile will weed out some of the purer sprinters, but the less difficult finish will provide an excellent opportunity for both riders, who can rely on their impressive uphill speed, with a shot in a reduced sprint. I’m not sure either one is at full strength just yet with Worlds as such a major goal, but they’ll be close to their best. I like Van Avermaet a bit more than Gilbert, as he’s been coming to the GP Montréal for so many years running now, but both are contenders.
Tony Gallopin, 3rd last year, showed good form with an 8th place in Québec. The way I see it, Montréal suits him better. He’s a excellent tactician who knows how to make an attack, and he has the fast finish to win out of a small group. He appears to be in terrific form as well. He was in the small group that made it up the Côte de la Montagne at the head of the race in Québec, and still managed to come in 8th in the final sprint after that group was swept up (Van Avermaet, also in that small group initially, could only manage 10th despite being near the front in the finale). In a wide-open race, I like Gallopin’s chances to turn last year’s third-place result into a win. If he doesn’t, Tim Wellens, Jurgen Roelandts, and Tiesj Benoot are other options for a loaded Lotto-Soudal.
Michael Matthews was the runner-up in Québec and he’ll have a shot in Montréal, but I see the parcours as being just a bit too difficult to view him near the top of the favorites (oddsmakers disagree with me on this one). In any case, if Matthews is not able to handle the climbs, it shouldn’t be too much of a problem for OGE, who have Adam Yates (on blazing form at the moment), Simon Yates, and Michael Albasini too.
Tom-Jelte Slagter is in the best form he’s been in all season. He was 4th in Québec, and although he’s had better results there in the past, I think Montréal suits him well too. He can handle tough climbs without too much trouble. Slagter isn’t going to Worlds, having suddenly found his form after the Dutch team selection, and I therefore expect he’ll be giving it everything he has to pull something off in Montréal. Ramunas Navardauskas and Ryder Hesjedal are other options for Cannondale-Garmin.
Lars Petter Nordhaug won here in 2012 and count be counted out. Trek’s Bauke Mollema and Fabio Felline make for a great 1-2 punch. The same is true for Giant-Alpecin’s Simon Geschke and Warren Barguil. Europcar has Tommy Voeckler, while FDJ can rely on Arthur Vichot. AG2R is the French squad with the widest array of options: Romain Bardet, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Jan Bakelants are all potential contenders. I was very impressed with LottoNL-Jumbo in Québec, and see Robert Gesink and Wilco Kelderman liking this parcours even more—Sep Vanmarcke is another option for the men in yellow.
Alexander Kristoff was surprisingly in the mix in Québec but it’s hard to see him holding on over the more challenging GP Montréal parcours. Hesitation at the head of the race late on in Québec helped his chances but I doubt he’ll get that kind of gift again, though obviously he’ll be a favorite if he’s there for a sprint.
Winner: Tony Gallopin
Podium: Rui Costa, Tom-Jelte Slagter
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Michael Matthews, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema
VeloHuman will be at the race so be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis!
On the heels of a thrilling Stage 20 that turned the Vuelta upside-down comes the final stage, very likely to end in a straightforward sprint.
Less than a hundred kilometers long and without any real climbs, the final stage of the Vuelta won’t be particularly hard. The main challenge will be the urban roads—after about 40km riding through the suburbs, the peloton will ride into a city circuit for 10 5.8km laps, and there are plenty of twists and turns in store.
Given the profile, a sprint is the likeliest scenario. A few of the quick men have stayed on in the race through the mountains for this opportunity, and they’re likely to put their teams on the front to keep things under control.
John Degenkolb has endured a long and challenging Vuelta without a stage win, but he should be the clear top dog among the sprinters left in the race. In terms of top speed, he’s the proven name here. However, Degenkolb has not been nearly as dominant as expected against a diminished field here, and while I still see him as the favorite, others will have their shot.
Danny Van Poppel is probably the strongest potential challenger to Degenkolb. Trek has had a great Vuelta and the team is highly motivated in the battle for stage wins. While Degenkolb has the edge over most riders here on pure speed, Van Poppel actually comes pretty close, and if he can win the battle for position he’s got a shot at a second Vuelta stage win.
Kristian Sbaragli won a messy Stage 10 to show off his sprinting chops and should be in the mix again on Stage 21. It’s likely to be a pretty hectic finale with all the cornering to be done, and that could help Sbaragli take another win over riders who might be faster in a test of pure speed.
José Joaquín Rojas, Max Richeze, Daniele Bennati, Tosh Van Der Sande, Tom Van Asbroeck, and Jean-Pierre Drucker are the outsiders with a shot in the likely sprint finish.
Of course, a late attack by the likes of Adam Hansen or Sylvain Chavanel can’t be ruled out: it’s been a long Vuelta and it’s possible someone could catch the sprinters’ teams off guard on a circuit that is technical enough to make things interesting.
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Danny Van Poppel | 3. Kristian Sbaragli
The final stage of the Vuelta marks the 63rd and final Grand Tour stage preview from VeloHuman this season. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed all the action! Be sure to keep an eye out for the next few episodes of the Recon Ride podcast and for pre-race thoughts on the last few events of the season, and follow @VeloHuman for more analysis.
Stage 20 will almost certainly be the final stage of the Vuelta with GC implications, and fortunately for anyone hoping for a close fight, the profile should set up a thriller.
The road from start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial to the finish in Cercedilla won’t be easy, with four Cat. 1s along the way. The road goes upward right from the start, gradually rising into the foot of the Puerto de Navacerrada, 9.4km at 6.6%. Then comes a flat section and then descent to the foot of the Puero de la Morcuera, 11.5km at 5.4%. It’s a grand chance to get acclimated to the climb: from the top, the riders will descend down to a flat stretch before circling back around and going right back up again, albeit on a partially different route for 10.4 total kilometers of climbing at 6.6%. One more downhill leads into the last official climb of the 2015 Vuelta.
11km at 5.3%, the Puerto de Cotos is challenging by itself but it’s really the incessant nature of the climbing on Stage 20 that will do the most damage. The gradients on the final climb aren’t that steep.
After the KOM summit, there’s a 7km flat section before a descent to the finish, where the road kicks up again in the final moment for 200 meters at almost 10%.
As the last mountain stage in the Vuelta, Stage 20 will be a critical opportunity for the GC riders to change their fortunes before Madrid. Even without a summit finish, the motivation should be there for the top riders in the race to make this a challenging day. The up-and-down profile does make for an appealing route for the breakaway, though, and the riders up the road early will at least have some chance at success if the GC favorites hold off on any serious hostilities until late in the day.
If the GC men are the ones vying for the stage, Alejandro Valverde is the prime pick for the stage victory. His skillset is perfect for Stage 20, where the climbs might not be hard enough to blow up the group of overall favorites before the finish. Valverde is also highly motivated to nab a result now that he’s feeling good again after a few off days.
Joaquím Rodríguez is an obvious candidate as well with this finish, though Daniel Moreno is also looking strong. Moreno may be an even stronger candidate for victory right now, and Katusha does not appear to be afraid to let Purito’s loyal lieutenant strike out on his own every once in a while.
Fabio Aru will certainly try to distance Tom Dumoulin on this stage, and while I was under the belief a few days ago that he’d be successful, I’m not so sure after Aru’s crash on Stage 19. He looks to be a bit worse for the wear. What’s more, Tom Dumoulin has a lot of pop and could shine in this finish if he can make it over all the climbs with the leaders. He can’t be counted out for the stage victory.
Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, and Nairo Quintana are all showing strong enough form, and are all far enough behind Dumoulin, that it wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them launched a stage-winning attack on the final categorized climb.
For riders who will be candidates for breakaway success, look to the strongest of the riders who have been consistently involved in the battle to make it into the early move. Romain Sicard, Nicolas Roche, Rodolfo Torres, Alessandro De Marchi, Darwin Atapuma, Rubén Plaza, and Giovanni Visconti are all on the long list of potential winners from afar.
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez
Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s third and final Vuelta podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20.