The Vuelta is in its final week, which means it’s time for a weekend of excellent one-day racing thousands of miles away. The Canadian GPs get underway Friday with the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec.
The Route
The “easier” of the two Québecois classics, the Quebec City race is a challenge nonetheless. 16 laps of 12.6km on an urban circuit, the event favor punchy riders with its collection of small climbs. The circuit starts out flat, then heads downhill, and then gets hard. There are four official climbs in the last 3.5km: first comes the one-two punch of very steep ascents in the Côte de la Montaigne (375m at 10%) and the Côte de la Potasse (420m at 9%), then it’s the Montée de la Fabrique (190m at 7%), and then comes uphill drag to the line, starting on the Montée du Fort and finishing on the Grand Allée (1km at 4%).
The GP Québec tends to be decided in those final few kilometers, as late attackers try to hold of the fast finishers in the bunch. Interestingly, every single Québec winner since the race’s founding in 2010 has been either an Ardennes contender or a Grand Tour talent. The race may have less climbing than Montréal overall, but the uphill finale puts a premium on explosive climbing ability.
The Favorites
The Québec startlist this year involves a nice array of stars with great climbing legs, great finishing ability, and great combinations of the two.
Peter Sagan, who has won the Montréal race, certainly counts as a rider capable of getting clear on the late climbs or winning a finishing sprint. At peak form I’d see him as the rider to beat, but he doesn’t seem to be in top shape right now. He downplayed his chances in the race press conference, and while it’s never smart to trust that sort of thing 100%, he hasn’t really shown much evidence of form in a few months either—he’s a strong contender in any case, just not a heavy favorite.
Greg Van Avermaet has a very similar toolkit, and he also happens to make these races a big priority every year. What’s more, he looks to be in shape, putting in a nice (if unsuccessful) attack late on at the Bretagne Classic. He should be in the mix in the finale.
Etixx may have lost last year’s race winner in the offseason, but they still have serious firepower. In fact, my top race favorite will be sporting an EQS jersey Friday. Julian Alaphilippe has developed into a force in the Ardennes Classics and I think the same skills could win him a Canadian GP. If he makes a late attack, he’s got the climbing chops to hold on through the uphill finishing straight. If it comes down to a reduced sprint, he’s fast enough to beat most of the startlist. Tom Boonen and Petr Vakoc make strong alternatives to defend the title for EQS.
Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard stand to benefit most from a bunch finale. Matthews is probably a bit stronger as a candidate given his history in hillier races, but Coquard has decent climbing legs too. Sam Bennett is another option for a potential sprint.
Lampre’s duo of Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi is impressive, as both riders have done well here in the past. If Ulissi were a more consistent, dependable rider, I could see him dominating this race given his skillset (very similar to Alaphilippe’s), but as he runs hot and cold, it’s hard to see him as a top favorite.
Trek’s Bauke Mollema is another rider who can climb, solo, and event sprint in a pinch. On the heels of his San Sebastián win, he can’t be overlooked.
Rigoberto Urán is back for more this year with a new team (Cannondale) though it’s hard to see him as a strong contender. I think his win last year was more about the surprise factor than anything else. I will say that he is a lot more explosive than people realize and probably could have a had a great career as a one-day racer if he’d actually focused on it. But his form is a question mark and he won’t be able to sneak past anyone this year, so Tom-Jelte Slagter and Ramunas Navardauskas look like just as strong options for the team as last year’s winner.
Lotto-Soudal, much like Cannondale, has a few nice options to attack the finale. Tim Wellens, who won in Montréal, can’t be allowed too much room. Neither can Tiesj Benoot or Jürgen Roelandts.
Adam Yates, Romain Bardet, Alexis Vuillermoz, Fabio Aru, Geraint Thomas, Gianni Moscon, Ilnur Zakarin, Jarlinson Pantano, and Simon Geschke are others to watch.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Julian Alaphilippe
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Michael Matthews, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Bauke Mollema, Bryan Coquard, Romain Bardet, Jarlinson Pantano
