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Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Preview

What better way to close out the Classics season than with the legendary Liège-Bastogne-Liège? The oldest Classic, Liège lives up to its status as a historic (said history covered in more detail in the most recent Recon Ride Podcast) springtime cycling icon with a challenging route that caters to aggressive types with strong climbing legs, and recent editions have offered no shortage of thrills. With most of the familiar veteran contenders and a host of young guns making start, the 2015 edition should not disappoint.

The Route

Liège-Bastogne-Liège is a long one at 253 kilometers, and the road from Liége to the finishing town of Ans is lined with difficult climbs (officially, there are ten). This is especially true in the final 90 kilometers of the race, where eight of the ten ascents big enough to warrant an icon on the official race profile await the peloton.

The last three in particular really put the hurt on, typically whittling down the peloton and launching attacks as well: the Côte de La Redoute (2 km at an average grade of 8.9%), the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at an average grade of 9.4%), and the Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%). Saint-Nicolas, crested just 5 kilometers from the line, is a popular place to strike out for glory. The race finishes on a gradient as well, with a climb into Ans of more than a kilometer.

With the abundance of challenging climbs and a lot of kilometers between the start and the finish, Liège wears down the peloton, but also offers opportunities for those strong enough to get clear. Sometimes the race ends in a small sprint, but there are always attacks to be marshaled, and endurance and great climbing legs are critical here.

The Contenders

Last year’s winner Simon Gerrans looks to still be recovering from a crash, meaning that Orica-GreenEdge is probably riding for the likes of Michael Albasini. That might open up the contenders conversation a bit, but fresh off his third career Flèche Wallonne victory, two-time Liège winner Alejandro Valverde comes into the race as the hot favorite. His elite climbing legs and deadly finishing kick make him an obvious choice for this race, and the form he has shown recently confirm has status as the rider to beat this year.

Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd last year and comes into this year’s edition with Amstel Gold Race-winning confidence. His already impressive sprint has clearly improved this year, and he’s a great solo artist. It won’t be easy to match the climbing legs of some of the star uphill chargers in this race, but if Kwiatkowski can survive some of the steeper sections of the road, he’ll be able to outsprint most of the contenders in the race or outpower them in a late break to the finish.

After his incredible Basque Country performance, Joaquim Rodríguez was a bit of a disappointment only coming in 4th at La Flèche Wallonne, but this is the grand prize and the one he’s been hunting for so long. The rare soloing form he showed in the País Vasco time trial could come in handy here, matched with his elite climbing ability. This is also a race where a strong team can make a big difference, and Katusha is among the strongest. Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso, both Top 10 finishers last year, are excellent cards to play for the Russian outfit.

Dan Martin won this race in 2013 and came close to winning in 2014 before a late crash ruined his shot at victory. He’s obviously a rider to watch, but he’ll be in unknown shape following a crash at La Fléche Wallonne. If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the mix to win. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a nice backup option in case he isn’t.

Philippe Gilbert is another former winner of the race in unknown health following a crash, though unlike Dan Martin, he’s not been as successful in recent years. He looked okay at the Amstel Gold Race but he was unable to stay clear at the top of the Cauberg. Health, form, and top-level ability at this point in his career are all question marks now.

Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang make a great 1-2 punch for Astana. Neither can win in a sprint, but both have great uphill ability and an aggressive streak. Watch for attacks from the light blue jerseys on a late climb like the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons. Also watch out for action from Lotto Soudal. Tim Wellens is hunting for glory in the Ardennes and his best shot at a top result is a long-range move. He’s not the best climber or the most powerful soloist on the startlist, but he seems to find an extra gear when he gets up the road on a Belgian climb. Jelle Vanendert and Tony Gallopin are excellent alternatives for the team. AG2R is another squad with multiple excellent options, among them, Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo, both Top 10 finishers last year.

Rui Costa, Sergio Henao, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Tom Dumoulin also have a chance at being in the mix in this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tim Wellens, Dan Martin, Rui Costa, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Les Meloures (CC).

April 25, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 10: Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride talks Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the spring’s final big one-day race.

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The last of the Ardennes Classics has arrived! Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm cover the history, the parcours, and the potential scenarios for this weekend’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

Photo by Sjaak Kempe (CC).

April 24, 2015
La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Preview

After the opening act of the Amstel Gold Race, the hilly Classics specialists head to Belgium for La Flèche Wallonne. A rare midweek WorldTour one-day event, it’s more than just a warmup for Liège-Bastogne-Liège: the “Walloon Arrow” is a major prize for the explosive climbers, and they’re here in droves for the 2015 edition.

The Route

The shortest of the Ardennes week trio, La Flèche Wallonne is only 205.5 km in total. Its 11 classified climbs range from 1 kilometer to 2.9 kilometers in length and 4.8% to 9.6% in average gradients—these are all short climbs, but most are at least somewhat steep, and some are downright brutal. The final two climbs in particular are quite demanding from a vertical standpoint.

The organizers added the Côte de Cherave to the route this year as the penultimate uphill challenge. 1.3 kilometers at 8.1%, it could be a nice launching pad with only about 5 km to go. But the real test will be the final climb, the Mur de Huy. The peloton will actually crest the iconic Wall of Huy three times in this race, but the last will be the most important, because the finish line is at the top of the climb. 1.3 km at 9.6%, it’s a vicious ascent that has no mercy for those without pure climbing ability. The winding slopes of the Mur deaden any momentum the riders bring with them into the ascent, forcing would-be winners to rely on raw uphill strength for almost the entirety of the way up (though things flatten out a bit at the very top). Coming at the end of a day full of climbs, it’s even more of a challenge.

Knowing that the Mur is coming, riders tend to try to keep a lot of energy in reserve in this race. That being the case, even with a new and difficult climb added so close to the line, it seems likely that many of the favorites will still plan to wait until the slopes of the Mur de Huy to launch their bids for glory. It’s possible that someone slips away before the pack reaches the the final climb, but it seems more probable that, as in years past, the Mur will remain the battleground on which La Flèche Wallonne is decided.

The Contenders

Neither Amstel nor Liège end on an uphill, and they are therefore open to victory bids from those with strong sprints or powerful soloing engines. But a race that ends on the Mur de Huy is almost guaranteed to go a rider with an elite uphill kick. Alejandro Valverde certainly fits the bill, which is probably why he’s won the race twice, including last year. He’s among the two or three most explosive uphill chargers in cycling, and his three-win Catalunya performance and runner-up ride at Amstel prove his great form right now. He’s got a great chance of doubling up here this year. He may be able to rely on Nairo Quintana to try something late in the day to put the pressure on Movistar’s rivals as well.

Right up there in the discussion of most explosive climber in cycling is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez, also a past winner here. Purito isn’t quite as strong as Valverde in a flat finish, but I rate his upward kick (when he’s at his best) ever so slightly above Valverde’s—and I think he’s currently quite close to his best. Rodríguez did not factor much in Amstel, but that parcours isn’t really his style; La Flèche Wallonne, on the other hand, suits him perfectly. Purito showed incredible form in the Basque Country and one would imagine he’s carried it into the Ardennes. Katusha must be excited to make the start here, having what is clearly the best team in the race. Daniel Moreno won here in 2013, and Giampaolo Caruo, who seems to get better every year despite being well over 30, has consistently been a factor in the hilly one-day events these past few seasons. Tiago Machado is no slouch either. With so many options, Katusha is likely to launch one uphill assault after another, and that will make them very difficult to counter.

Dan Martin has come close to victory here in the past, and seems destined to win at some point in his career given his excellent skillset for the Mur de Huy. Runner-up in 2014, he’s got a great uphill kick and an aggressive streak to match. He has improved tactically since his 4th place in 2013 that might have been a win if he hadn’t started the Mur so out of position. It seems likely that he’ll again be among those fighting for the win this year. Cannondale can send Tom-Jelte Slagter on the offensive as well.

Chris Froome will likely get plenty of media attention coming into this race, but it’s his teammate Sergio Henao that Sky’s rivals will really be watching. He sat out the 2014 edition but was 2nd to Daniel Moreno in 2013, and a recent 2nd-place in Pais Vasco shows his excellent form. With Froome and Nicolas Roche and Wout Poels as alternatives or support options, Sky can be aggressive in this race.

Amstel Gold Race winner Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd here in 2014. He launched his attack relatively early in that edition and looked good into the final few hundred meters before being passed by Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde. This pure climber’s finale doesn’t suit him as well as Amstel or Liège, simply because he just doesn’t quite have the uphill ability that Purito and some of the other top contenders here have, but he’s a better soloist and a better sprinter than practically anyone else with a chance in this race. That means that he could try something a bit long distance, or alternatively, try to hold the right wheel all the way to top of the Mur where things flatten out, and in either scenario, he’ll have a chance.

Rui Costa looked good at Amstel and is constantly underrated as a climber (and as a time trialist, and as a sprinter for that matter). With Diego Ulissi as a fine second, Lampre can probably make something happen here. Trek has the excellent 1-2 punch of Bauke Mollema and Julián Arredondo—Arredondo has the perfect skillset for La Flèche Wallonne but hasn’t shown much lately. If he’s got some form hidden away he’ll be in the mix. AG2R’s Carlos Betancur also has an excellent skillset for La Flèche Wallonne; at his best, few would be able to match him in this race. He has done almost nothing from a results standpoint in over a year, but he didn’t look too bad at Amstel and will be worth watching here. Lotto Soudals’s Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens could get involved. Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang, both clearly hungry for one-day success, will almost certainly try to be aggressive as the day nears its conclusion. Philippe Gilbert has won here in the past and will probably be up there again, but a podium performance at this stage in his career seems highly unlikely—he is not climbing like he used to. Samuel Sanchez could be a nice alternative option for BMC. OGE’s Simon Yates and Michael Albasini, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger are others who could get involved.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Joaquim Rodriguez
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Daniel Martin
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Sergio Henao, Rui Costa, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Yates, Vincenzo Nibali

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more live analysis during the race.

Photo by umelog (CC).

April 21, 2015
Amstel Gold Race 2015 Preview

The Classics calendar leaves the rough cobblestones of Flanders and northern France behind for the short, steep bergs of the Netherlands Sunday at the Amstel Gold Race. The uphill chargers will face off on a bumpy parcours in the Limburg province, the first of three puncheur-friendly WorldTour races often called the “Ardennes Classics” (though the Amstel Gold Race doesn’t actually go through the Ardennes forest.

The Route

Even at a long 251 kilometers in full, with 34 classified climbs from start to finish, the Amstel Gold Race is a roller-coaster ride throughout. The trip from Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt is one of constant ups and downs, with plenty of road furniture along the way to boot.

On paper, the route and profile look perfect for aggressive racing, and recent editions have seen successful long-range attackers. But historically, this race has quite often been all about the very last uphill test, the Cauberg. It’s a little over a kilometer long at just under a 5% average gradient, but with some seriously steep stuff in the middle. From the top of the final ascent (the peloton will visit the iconic climb multiple times on the day) of the Cauberg, it’s still almost two kilometers to the line, a relatively recent route alteration that requires those who get away on the last slope to maintain their gap over a flat stretch before the finish.

The Contenders

Whether this race is won with a long-range attack, a charge up the Cauberg, or a finishing sprint in the final drag, explosiveness is the critical trait for any would-be contender in the Amstel Gold Race: explosiveness to get clear in a breakaway attempt, to launch up the last climb, or to win a bunch kick in the finishing straight. The Amstel Gold Race is a puncheur’s playground.

Philippe Gilbert is the peloton’s most successful active Amstel Gold Racer, and generally, the sport’s dominant figure on the Cauberg climb. He’s won this race three times, and won his rainbow jersey atop the Cauberg in 2012. This race suits him down to the ground, and his 3rd place in the recent Brabantse Pijl suggests he’s in good shape. Still, he’s not the Philippe Gilbert he once was, and all eyes will be on him in the last few kilometers. He won’t be able to slip away. As strong as he is here, this startlist is packed with hungry uphill specialists, it won’t be easy for him to get clear even on his favored terrain, and a few of the other likely contenders could probably beat him in a sprint if he can’t drop them. He’s the oddsmakers’ favorite for obvious reasons, but winning a force Amstel will be a real challenge. Regardless, having Samuel Sanchez, Greg Van Avermaet, and Ben Hermans around to launch attacks does give BMC plenty of cards to play.

Alejandro Valverde has never won here, but his uphill burst is one of the best in cycling, and his ability to win a sprint even in a flat finish makes him particularly dangerous. In blazing form after a three-stage-win Catalunya, Valverde has a terrific chance of winning this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski, 5th last year, also has a strong uphill burst and an excellent finishing kick. One advantage he may have even over the versatile Alejandro Valverde in this finale is a talent for late solo moves. He earned his Worlds title with a brilliant late attack in Ponferrada, and with the finish line still over a kilometer from the top of the Cauberg, his time trialing skills will come in very handy.

Simon Gerrans is perfectly suited to this parcours, but he is probably still a bit lacking in the form department after an early season injury. Orica-GreenEdge will likely put their faith in Michael Matthews instead, who just landed his second straight 2nd-place result in Brabantse Pijl. If the punchier riders can’t get separation, Matthews has a great chance of winning this race in a sprint.

Joaquim Rodríguez has the punch to thrive on the Cauberg, and showed incredible form in Pais Vasco. The flat stretch that follows from the top of the final climb is not great for his skillset but he may be strong enough to open up a winning gap on the uphill drag. Teammate Daniel Moreno also has plenty of punch, and a decent sprint as well.

Sergio Henao is another talented climber with a fair bit of punch, and he showed strong form in the Basque Country. Daniel Martin would probably fare better with a purely uphill finish too, but he does have a nice finishing kick if he manages to get into a small group in the finale—Tom-Jelte Slagter is another option for Cannondale.

With an impressive trio of Jelle Vandendert (twice 2nd here), Tony Gallopin, and Tim Wellens, Lotto Soudal will almost certainly be in the mix for the win. Wellens is a great candidate to go from afar. Giant-Alpecin’s Tom Dumoulin is another great long-range candidate. His elite soloing ability combined with an ever-improving finishing kick make him a terrific outsider for victory.

Lampre’s Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi, Wanty-Groupe Gobert’s Enrico Gasparotto, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Roman Kreuziger, Trek’s dangerous trio of Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Fabio Felline, CCC’s Davide Rebellin, and AG2R’s Carlos Betancur and Jan Bakelants are others hoping to get into the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Michal Kwiatkowski
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert
Other Top Contenders: Michael Matthews, Joaquim Rodriguez, Jelle Vanendert, Tim Wellens, Daniel Moreno, Sergio Henao, Tom Dumoulin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by By Jakub Cerveny (CC).

April 18, 2015
Orica-GreenEdge “Really Happy” with Progression of Keukeleire after Top 10s in Harelbeke and Roubaix

Ever since 2010, when he won the Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen, Nokere-Koerse, and Memorial Samyn races all in one brilliant March, Jens Keukeleire has (deservedly) received mentions as an outsider and potential Top 10 candidate in many prognosticators’ Classics previews. The cobbled, one-day races have never been the strongest area for Orica-GreenEdge, but in Keukeleire, they have been developing a rider with a potential to contend in those races, though at least through 2014, his performances at the very biggest cobblestone-oriented events had not yielded top results.

That changed this spring. Keukeleire nabbed his first Top 10 in a WorldTour one-day race at E3 Harelbeke in March, signaling strong form and a potential for more success in the races to come, and then he delivered on that promise in last Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix, making it into the velodrome with the winning group to ultimately finish the Hell of the North in 6th place. It wasn’t a victory, and it wasn’t a podium, but it was Keukeleire’s strongest performance at the WorldTour level yet, and it was the team’s best ever placing in either of the Monument-level cobbled races. For the Australian outfit, that was plenty reason to celebrate. When Keukeleire found his way to the team bus after the finish in Roubaix, it was hugs all around from the team staff.

“If you look at the race I did, I had a lot of bad luck, and to be honest, a couple of times I thought, ‘This is over, my race is over here.’ But I know from previous editions that you can never give up here, always keep fighting, and you never know where you end up, and look I’m still Top 10 so I’m really happy,” Keukeleire said after the race.

Getting to this point was a matter of constant development, from a starting point with a fair bit of youth and inexperience.

“I’ve just been noticing that every year we’re getting stronger and stronger in these Classics,” Keukeleire said. “Four years ago, with the start of the team, we were really young. A team which lacked a little bit in experience, but every year we’re getting more and more experience, and stronger as well, and you can notice it in the races, not only here but in the other races as well, we know better how to ride, which moments we have to be in the front, and I think that’s only positive for the future.”

Keukeleire’s positive outlook is shared by the team management. Orica-GreenEdge general manager Shayne Bannan had plenty of good things to say about the Top 10 performance by his team’s rising Classics contender.

“We’re really happy with Jens’s progression,” Bannan told VeloHuman. “To finish 6th in Paris-Roubaix, at his age, we know he’s developing into a potential Roubaix winner. Maybe two or three years away, but what he showed today was something pretty special, for him as an individual and for us as a team. Our best result prior to today was Langeveld in 7th two or three years ago. So to come here and finish 6th, but a 6th that was only a few lengths away from getting a podium, it’s something really special, so we’re proud of him.”

Keukeleire isn’t the only up-and-coming talent on the Australian team’s roster. The team has a stable of riders aged twenty-six and younger that are already capable of contending on a variety of terrains, whether that’s the cobbles, the short, steep climbs of the Ardennes, or the Alpine ascents of the Grand Tours.

“It’s critical to have a mixture of young talent and a mixture of very good experience. The combination is a quite lethal combination if done correctly. We’re excited by the young talent we’ve got coming through, including the Yateses [Simon and Adam], Esteban [Chaves], Magnus Cort, [Michael] Matthews, and so on and so on. So we’re really looking to the next couple of years. Looking forward first of all to the Ardennes, and the Giro and the Tour, but we’re excited about the next couple of years,” Bannan said.

The “very good experience” element comes into play thanks to a number of veteran riders on the squad whose presence is critical to the development of the young stars. Proven Paris-Roubaix Top 10 talent Mathew Hayman, for instance, can offer the sort of guidance that only comes with years of riding on the cobblestones. Sunday’s Paris-Roubaix left Hayman with a mixture of emotions after a crash took him out of contention — “Just a bit gutted for myself, it was a pretty silly crash,” he told VeloHuman — but the 36-year-old Australian acknowledged that Keukeleire’s Top 10 was a big result that might lead to more and more big results to come.

“He had a couple of punctures, thought his race was over at different points, and to have him there at the finish and to know that it’s possible, I’m sure that’s going to give him a big boost of confidence for next year. I’ve been in the same situation, once you’ve been in the top 10, you realize that these things can happen,” Hayman said.

April 18, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 9: Amstel Gold Race + La Flèche Wallonne 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride presents a double helping of pre-race analysis for the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne.

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The peloton heads for the hills to take on the Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne, the first two races in a trio of springtime one-day WorldTour events for the punchier types, and the Recon Ride is covering the talking points with a double pre-race show.

Photo by Johan Wieland.

April 17, 2015