Blog

Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco 2015 Preview

While the Cobbled Classics stars do battle in Northern Europe, many of the peloton’s top climbers are headed to the Basque Country for the Vuelta Ciclista al País Vasco. With a parcours that includes both climbs and an ITT, it attracts plenty of Grand Tour-style riders. It also happens to be a hilly race just a few days in advance of the Ardennes Classics, and therefore, it draws many of the likely protagonists of those races as well. True to form, the 2015 edition boasts an appealing, bumpy route and a strong startlist of stars with a variety of specializations.

The Route

There isn’t a lot of flat in the Vuelta al País Vasco. Potential launching pads are everywhere in this race.

Stages 1 and 2 both involve some hills and both end with downhill sections; sprint finishes (likely reduced) are possible, though only if the interested teams can work well to keep any attacks on a short leash. Stage 3 will test the riders with eight categorized climbs, which will almost certainly break things up.

Stage 4 finishes at Arrate just after a Cat. 1 summit. The race often sees a major shakeup here. Another eight-climb day on Stage 5 (closing out with a Cat. 2) will probably see plenty more action. None of these climbs are terribly long, meaning that those riders who can put some punch into a quick uphill charge will thrive.

Stage 6, the final day of racing, is an 18.3-kilometer ITT. The first half is downhill, but then the road goes up, and then down, and then up again towards the finish. Those two uphill sections are pretty tough, which will make this an interesting chrono to close out the Tour of the Basque Country

The General Classification Contenders

Although he would probably prefer the climbs to be more alpine in nature, 2013 winner Nairo Quintana looks like the top contender for the Tour of the Basque Country. Quintana knows how to win this race, he does well even in the time trials here (and this hilly ITT will suit him more than most), and he recently displayed incredible form when he won Tirreno-Adriatico ahead of a powerhouse field. It’s hard to see anyone matching him on the climbs, and he should be able to hold his own on the final stage time trial. With Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre on the startlist as well, Movistar has a stacked lineup for this race.

Michal Kwiatkowski of EQS is the other top favorite for this race. 2nd last year, he has looked to be in excellent form (which he showed with a 2nd place in the recent Paris-Nice. Due to his nice sprint, he would surely prefer bonus seconds, but his explosiveness will suit him plenty even without added time bonuses at the line. He also happens to be one of the best time trialists in the world. It won’t be easy, but if he can hang with Quintana on the tough uphill stuff in this race, he should manage to take a victory on the back of his impressive chrono skills. Tony Martin, who can climb better than many realize, could have a chance at the overall as well.

A powerhouse BMC squad the includes Tejay van Garderen, Rohan Dennis, Samuel Sánchez, and Darwin Atapuma can’t be overlooked. Van Garderen has had a bit of an up-and-down season but his form looked very good at the queen stage of the Volta a Catalunya. If he can manage to avoid having a bad day here (the rainy Basque Country won’t make that easy) he should contend, especially given his great ITT skills. Rohan Dennis obviously sports a strong ITT as well, and is improving as a climber with every race, while Samuel Sanchez seems to always do well in this race, given his punchy skillset, well-suited to the parcours. Atapuma is a bit of a wildcard. He doesn’t get many opportunities to ride for himself but he just put in a nice Top 10 in Catalunya and could get some freedom here.

Rui Costa will love this route (he is a specialist on this sort of terrains) and his ability to put in a nice time trial, especially on a hilly profile, is constantly underrated by cycling analysts. That makes him a strong contender.

FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot has improved as a time trialist and, 2nd in the Critérium International, he seems to have the for necessary to be in the mix here. AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud has been a strong time trialist for a long time and, 1st in the Critérium International, he most certainly has the form necessary to be in the mix here.

Bauke Mollema, 2nd at Tirreno-Adriatico, could continue to shine here. His form in Italy was impressive; he seemed to ride there at a level above what he can typically muster. It’s hard to say whether that will continue here but if the same Bauke Mollema shows up, he’ll contend for the win, with teammate Julián Arredondo an option for Trek as well. Meanwhile, Joaquim Rodriguez is on unknown form after skipping the Volta a Catalunya, but obviously he’s a very dangerous rider in this ultra-hilly race, especially with the Ardennes Classics looming. Simon Spilak was impressive at Paris-Nice and Daniel Moreno is always a strong alternative as well. Andrew Talansky, Tom Dumoulin, Mikel Nieve and Sergio Henao, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, and Rafal Majka are others with a shot at the GC in this Tour of the Basque Country.

The Stagehunters

The parcours seems to be deterring the class of pure sprinters who lack versatility from making the trip, but there are plenty of in-between types with fast finishes and strong climbing legs who will hope to bag stage wins here. Michael Matthews, Ben Swift, and Gianni Meersman look to be the class of the bunch, all capable of hanging on over uphill challenges and battling it out at the finish line in a sprint.

Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Philippe Gilbert, Diego Ulissi, Tom-Jelte Slagter, and Simon Gerrans are strong bets to battle it out with the GC types for the intermediate stages that could come down to punchy late attacks or small group sprints; the versatile Lotto duo of Wellens and Gallopin could conceivably contend for the overall if they ride strategically.

And, of course, watch out for Amets Txurruka to try to go on the attack at all times. A constant fixture in KOM competitions in Spanish races, Txurruka has never actually won a WorldTour-level race, but his spirited breakaway attempts have come close in the past.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Nairo Quintana
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Tejay van Garderen
Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Rui Costa, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Thibaut Pinot, Samuel Sánchez, Andrew Talansky, Joaquim Rodríguez

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mikel Ortega.

April 5, 2015
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015: Race Day Thoughts from John Degenkolb, Hugo Houle, and Tyler Farrar

VeloHuman chatted with some of the riders taking on the Tour of Flanders at the startline in Bruges to get some insider insight on the way the 2015 Ronde might play out.

John Degenkolb (Giant-Alpecin)

We finally have good weather today. Does that work in your favor?

I think it’s in my advantage and I like it when we don’t have super bad conditions. It’s good, I like it.

How does absence of Fabian Cancellara affect the way Giant-Alpecin will ride this race?

Fabian was always like an orientation point in the race, so it will not make it easier, for sure. For everybody, now we have to make our own race, and I’m actually pretty sad that he’s not here, and I hope he’s getting fine again.

Do you think you can beat Kristoff again if this comes down to a sprint?

I think so. That would be the perfect situation but we will see. It’s a hard race, it’s a long race, and it definitely won’t be a sprint like in Sanremo.

Hugo Houle (AG2R La Mondiale)

How do you see the race playing out scenario-wise?

Well for sure it’s going to be a small group, maybe one, two, four, a group of ten guys maximum at the end. I think it’s more open because Cancellara and Boonen are not there. So it’s going to be an interesting race, and it’s going to be funny to see who is going to take control, and maybe a group can go a long way from the finish and stay ahead because you don’t have one team controlling.

How’s the AG2R Morale heading into this race?

It’s pretty good team morale. I think we’re all motivated and will try to do our best. We’re not the big contender but that makes us stress-free and we’ll try to get a result that will be good for us.

Tyler Farrar (MTN-Qhubeka)

How is the team holding up with Edvald Boasson Hagen sidelined by a collarbone injury?

You never want to see one of your teammates get hurt so that’s never good. He was really our leader for the Ronde and for Paris-Roubaix next weekend. It’s definitely a blow to the team’s strategy but that’s sport and we just have to deal with it and come up with a Plan B.

What is Plan B?

Today I think Gerald [Ciolek] is going really well. The last few races he’s really been climbing strong. We hope he’ll make the final selections and be in a small group that sprints for a podium or even the victory.

What’s your role today?

We’ll see. I don’t think I’m going bad either so I’ll try to stay pretty quiet early on and hide a bit, and try to be the backup guy today. And if we don’t need a backup guy, I’ll see if I can lend him a hand in the final hour of the race.

We finally have decent weather! Thoughts?

Finally! It makes me a lot happier. It’s been a pretty rough Classics weather-wise and that really changes the dynamics of the race. When you get those horrible days like we had last week, it becomes more of an attrition thing. When you have this good weather, people tend to race a bit more aggressively in the finale, so the race tends to be a bit more explosive I think.

-Dane Cash

April 5, 2015
Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Preview

With E3 and Gent-Wevelgem in the books, the Tour of Flanders is almost here. Sans Fabian Cancellara (and Tom Boonen, though he would not have enjoyed the same level of favorite status as Cancellara even if he were here) the 2015 Ronde looks especially open, which should make for quite a race.

The Route

At 264 kilometers, the Tour of Flanders is a long one, and the arduous journey gets more and more difficult as the day wears on. The peloton will set out from scenic Bruges and head south towards the cobbled climbs that this race has made so famous. The route contains seventeen officially classified climbs this year, many of them repeat trips up the same ascents, as the course starts looping into itself and covering the same ground again for multiple visits to these famous hellingen.

The final string of climbs that runs from roughly kilometer 219 to kilometer 251 are the likely battleground where this race will play out. Over the top of brutal challenges like the Koppenberg, after already having been up and over so many of these cobbles all day, the peloton is likely to break apart. And if things aren’t already shattered to pieces by the time the peloton hits the final climbs of the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, the attacks are certain to fly on the long drag of the former and the vicious steepness of the latter.

After the descent from the Paterberg, it’s a mostly straight run to the line, meaning that anyone hoping to whittle down the lead group is going to look to act before the final few kilometers.

The Contenders

It’s a wide open field for the Tour of Flanders this season, with four or five riders enjoying roughly equivalent favorite status and a host of others nipping at their heels. LottoNL’s Sep Vanmarcke is certainly among the top contenders. The Belgian cobbled specialist was 3rd here in 2014 and despite never quite coming away with that big win he’s been searching for in his career, he’s displayed the grit, the bike handling, the climbing chops, and the explosive required to make a bid for glory here. The results in the run-up races of E3 and Gent-Wevelgem haven’t quite been where he would have hoped, with others appearing stronger out on the road in both events, but this is the real prize for Vanmarcke and he seems like an excellent rider to watch as the final Kwaremont-Paterberg double approaches.

Similarly versatile is Zdenek Stybar of Etixx-QuickStep, who happens to also have a true powerhouse of talent supporting him team-wise. Stybar looks to be the best of the EQS riders for this race because, among the Classics stars on this QuickStep roster, he best combines climbing legs and a powerful finishing kick. But Niki Terpstra and especially Stijn Vandenbergh, 4th here last year and extremely savvy racing these roads, give the team options. Expect to see attacks flying from all sides late in this race.

Team Sky also brings firepower with their many talented stars on the roster, with Geraint Thomas leading the way. Among the strongest climbers in this Ronde, Thomas is on terrific form right now as evidenced by his win at E3 and his follow-up 3rd place at Gent-Wevelgem. Being able to rely on Ian Stannard and Bradley Wiggins will help. With a pair of Top 10s here already on his resume and a recent win in a race that incorporated many of the same climbs, Thomas has the experience necessary to take on this race as a top favorite and it would be a big surprise not to see him try something on one of the final climbs. The question is whether he’ll be able to shed his top rivals who might give him a run for his money in a small sprint.

One rider certain to be hoping that this race ends with a small group sprinting for the win is Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan. Flying more under the radar right now than maybe he was expecting to be due to a general lack of results this year, Sagan might have a bit of an advantage that he doesn’t usually enjoy; so often, his plans are foiled immediately because all of his rivals are eying him at all times. This year, with the focus on other riders, Sagan may have a chance to make something happen the way he wants to. The form hasn’t been too bad, and this is a major objective, so he can’t be ignored even though he hasn’t been lighting it up coming into the Ronde this year.

After a crash at E3, where his skillset would have made him one of the likely top contenders at the business end of the race, Greg Van Avermaet might be flying under the radar a bit as well. But he seems to have recovered from his fall and he has been in excellent shape so far this year. 2nd here last year and a more capable sprinter than most, he may be able to look for the right wheels to follow this year rather than launching one of his trademark “almost-good-enough” attacks. Daniel Oss makes for a terrific teammate.

Speaking of terrific teammates, Alexander Kristoff will be in good hands with Luca Paolini at his side as well. In Katusha’s pre-race press conference, Paolini was very clear in his support of Kristoff, and that solidarity will be a great boon for the Norwegian. It won’t be easy to keep this together for a sprint (which is what Kristoff will need to win here) but Kristoff is tougher than most and with Paolini to help close down attacks if necessary, he has a fighting chance. So too does John Degenkolb, who may not have much of a history in this race but who has shown that he can climb well (winning plenty of hilly, intermediate-stage type races in the past) and ride cobbles well (winning Gent-Wevelgem in 2014 and taking 2nd in Paris-Roubaix that year) which are the necessary requirements to hanging on here. Given the difficult nature of this race and the wide open field likely to see constant attacks, I think the sprinters will have a very hard time here, but Kristoff and Degenkolb are the two obvious riders to watch in that potential scenario.

Jürgen Roelandts, who proved his great form with a bold solo move in Gent-Wevelgem, also packs a quick finish and that makes him dangerous here, with the surprising Jens Debusschere as an alternative. Stijn Devolder will head up Trek’s Flanders campaign in the absence of Fabian Cancellara. Cannondale-Garmin’s Sebastian Langeveld was a late addition to the startlist, recovering from a recent crash; he’s a great talent in unknown shape right now. Astana’s Lars Boom, OGE’s Jens Keukeleire, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and a stable of young Topsport Vlaanderen talents that includes Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns are among the outsiders who will hope to contend.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Zdenek Stybar, Geraint Thomas
Other Top Contenders: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan, Stijn Vandenbergh, Jürgen Roelandts, Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Niki Terpstra

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more roadside analysis during the race. Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride podcast, with pre-race insight from Sep Vanmarcke, Geraint Thomas, and Patrick Lefevere.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mick Knapton.

April 4, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 7: Ronde van Vlaanderen 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on Belgium’s biggest race, the Tour of Flanders, with plenty of insider insight from a few people likely to play a major role in the event.
[powerpress]

VeloHuman and Cyclocosm join forces again to present the Recon Ride Ronde van Vlaanderen Pre-race Show, with more insider knowledge than ever, thanks to interviews with race favorites Sep Vanmarcke and Geraint Thomas and EQS CEO Patrick Lefevere.

Photo by Ctankcycles.

April 3, 2015
Lefevere Maintains Mostly Positive Outlook After Another Near Miss at Gent-Wevelgem

With Stijn Vandenbergh and Niki Terpstra in a small lead group in the final 10 kilometers of Gent-Wevelgem, EQS seemed to have control of the race with a deadly 1-2 punch. But Luca Paolini launched a powerful attack with around 6 kilometers left in the stage, and not even the combined might of Vandenbergh, Terpstra, and the rest of the small lead group could reel him in. Terpstra ultimately crossed the line 2nd, Vandenbergh 4th. Just as had been the case for the Belgian super-squad in last month’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, EQS failed to turn an advantage into a victory.

Talking to VeloHuman after Gent-Wevelgem, Etixx-QuickStep CEO Patrick Lefevere did not see the form of his riders as a problem.

“I think the condition of the top riders is okay. I think maybe we’re the strongest riders in the bunch at the moment, if you look from Omloop Het Nieuwsblad until now, seeing the crash in the descent of the Poggio and Milan-San Remo, losing Stybar and Kwiatkowski, and then all the other races, we’re always on the podium,” Lefevere told VH. “Nieuwsblad 2nd, 3rd, 4th, winning Kuurne, the World Champion did a really great performance at Waregem, Harelbeke again, very strong, but every time, just somebody’s stronger.”

The team tactics were rather questionable at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, but here in Gent-Wevelgem, the insurmountable strength of Luca Paolini and a perfectly-timed attack by the Italian seemed to be the main obstacle to EQS success. The early abandonment of their Plan A, Mark Cavendish, and a steady stream of mechanicals all day did not help the situation. Lefevere seems to attribute the dearth of wins despite so many top placings to bad luck more than anything, and because of it, he is not as disappointed as he might otherwise be given the number of near misses: “I like winning of course, but seeing the bad luck we have, I think I cannot complain,” Lefevere said.

With the show of strength the team made today (and has made over the last several races), even if the victories have not come as readily as Etixx-QuickStep would have hoped, they will be the squad with the most legitimate contenders for next week’s Ronde van Vlaanderen, with Terpsta, Vandenbergh, and especially Zdenek Stybar all looking like viable options to challenge for the Monument victory.

The team showed at Gent-Wevelgem as they have shown time and again in the past that they are one of the strongest teams in the peloton in poor weather conditions, and if the rain and incredible winds of Gent-Wevelgem manage to stick around until the Tour of Flanders, it might seem a boon to the chances of the Belgian squad so proficient at riding in the crosswinds. Lefevere, however, was not too welcoming of the bad weather, despite his squad’s obvious favorable reaction to the conditions, saying that he hoped next week be “not as windy as today.”

“I don’t know if this was okay today,” he said. “I think if people get hurt because they’re blown away from the roads . . . there are limits.”

-Dane Cash

March 29, 2015
Gent-Wevelgem 2015: Race Day Thoughts from André Greipel, Sam Bennett, and Heinrich Haussler

VeloHuman caught up with a few of the potential protagonists of Gent-Wevelgem just before the start of the race to get some inside-the-peloton insight on the race and the day’s nasty conditions.

André Greipel (Lotto Soudal)

How do you prepare in the run-up to a race like this, when you’re looking to take that big Classics win?

The race is a bit different. . . . Unfortunately I got sick after Algarve so I had to have a break for a while. Now we have to make the best out of it. And of course, the conditions today, it’s the same for everyone. But it would be nice to win a race like Gent-Wevelgem.

How do the wind and the rain affect your hope that this race ends in a sprint?

It’s about the teams, and how strong the teams are. Of course there will be a lot of echelons today, and we’re going to see, and we hope we will be up there.

Who else will you have your eye on as rivals?

We have to work as a team. Until the end of the race, it’s really dangerous to get a disadvantage if others are doing an echelon, so we have to be concentrated on our team.

Sam Bennett (Bora-Argon 18)

How are you feeling in this weather?

Phew, I dunno. We’ll find out in a few more minutes. I don’t know. From the start it will be very difficult. It will be a long day. And with the weather, it makes it a lot colder, so we’ll just see how the body reacts.

What is the team plan for the day?

Just stay in good position all day, because you don’t know what’s going to happen in these races, you don’t know when they’re going to sprint, and try to be there for the end for the sprint. I think it’s going to be a select group, so hopefully we’ll be there.

You had a big win last month in Qatar. Still feeling on the same level?

I feel stronger, but I need a bit of luck to be in the right place at the right time I suppose.

Heinrich Haussler (IAM Cycling)

Thoughts on the weather?

It’s fucking shit. It’s fucking terrible, and it’s just going to get worse as we get near the coast.

How are the legs?

The legs are okay, it’s just always a matter of having good position in these types of races, having a bit of luck, no flat tires, no crashes. Hopefully that will be the case today.

-Dane Cash

March 29, 2015