Blog

Milano-Sanremo 2015 Preview

Milano-Sanremo, the first one-day race on the 2015 WorldTour and also the first “Monument Classic” of the season, has almost arrived! The grueling event, which will take riders from Italy’s Lombardy region to its Ligurian coast this Sunday, combines an overlong race distance with a few topographic features along the way, and often a sizeable dose of unpleasant weather. Even in a sport that prizes toughness, Milano-Sanremo demands grit and endurance on another level, which is why a big reason why its list of winners includes some of cycling most legendary hard men (one of the many topics discussed in the Recon Ride pre-race show, which you should also check out).

The Route

Though Milano-Sanremo has undergone a number of route changes in the past few years, the 293-kilometer route of the 2015 edition is similar to that of the 2014 edition (lacking a few of the climbs often planned for this race), with some alterations in the final kilometers. The peloton will set out from Milan and enjoy mostly flat roads for over a hundred kilometers. The pavement angles upward for the long, low-gradient climb of the Passo del Turchino a bit before the midway point, and that ascent is followed by a fast descent towards the coast.

293 kilometers in total, the Milano-Sanremo parcours becomes more and more difficult near the finish line.

From there, it’s still over a hundred kilometers along the Mediterranean in the direction of San Remo. Things stay flat for a while, but around kilometer 240, the peloton will start to hit a few small bumps, leading into a pair of more difficult late climbs likely to break up the peloton before the finish. First comes the Cipressa, 5.6 kilometers at a 4.1% average gradient. The riders will reach the top with a little over 20 km to go, take on a fast descent, and then speed over flat roads until they hit the foot of the Poggio climb. 3.7 kilometers at 3.7%, the Poggio does have a few steep sections (one stretch of 8%), and its otherwise unimposing gradient is of course made much more intimidating by the fact that the riders won’t reach the climb until they’ve already ridden 280 kilometers. The top of the Poggio is 5.5 kilometers from the finish, and followed by a fast descent that doesn’t even out until there are only 2.3 kilometers to go. From there, it’s a flat run towards the finishing straight on the Via Roma, a classic conclusion to Milano-Sanremo that has returned after many years of being left out of the route. With the reintroduction of the Via Roma, the finish line in this year’s race is almost a kilometer closer to the bottom of the Poggio than it was last year.

As of the day before the race, the weather forecast calls for some rain, though at the moment it seems the peloton may escape the torrential downpours common in the area this time of year.

The Contenders

Given the parcours, the likeliest outcome for Milano-Sanremo 2015 would appear to be a sprint showdown among the more versatile quick men of the peloton. The late climbs will give the opportunists a chance to try to get up the road and stay clear for the victory, and a few riders stand out as particularly likely protagonists in that scenario, but it won’t be easy to hold of the charging pack on these relatively low gradients. On the other hand, there are a few pure sprinters who might be favorites in any other high-speed finale but who might struggle here after such a long day.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is the defending champion, the victor of the 2014 edition in a bunch sprint that saw him well ahead of several very speedy finishers. Kristoff’s ability to survive the grueling distance without losing too much of his kick was crucial to his win over the other sprinters last year, and it remains a strong reason to expect big things from him again this year. Kristoff also has the experienced Luca Paolini to help him navigate the day’s difficulties. He has been in excellent form all season, winning sprints in several stage races, and that only makes him appear a stronger candidate here. The one question mark for Kristoff is whether he’ll be close enough to the front of the race as the Via Roma approaches. The reduced distance between the bottom of the Poggio descent and the finish line will give Kristoff less time to regain ground if he loses position on the last climb. Kristoff is not a bad climber, for a sprinter, but there are other quick men who can go uphill more comfortably, and they look to be Kristoff’s biggest challengers should this come down to a sprint.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Peter Sagan has been close to success in this race before, but he has come up short at the line. Gerald Ciolek (surprisingly) denied him of a victory in a reduced sprint in 2013, and although he came to the line with the main pack in 2014, he was a nonfactor in the sprint. The altered finish may benefit Sagan, whose climbing legs set him apart from the other quick men. More so than most, he is capable of launching a late attack on the Poggio, or at least holding the wheel of someone who does. If some of top sprinters in the peloton have faded by the time the finish nears, Sagan will be in a prime position to pick up his first Monument win.

Another sprinter with capable climbing legs making the start is Giant-Alpecin’s John Degenkolb. His 2014 MSR campaign was ruined by a late puncture, but soon after, he took 2nd in Paris-Roubaix, proving that distance is not a problem for him. He has continually improved in the top speed department over the last few years, and even against the biggest-name sprinters in the world he can hold his own; when a long day and a late climb enter the equation, Degenkolb becomes even more dangerous. He hasn’t quite had the results he would have hoped for coming into the race, racking up a number of 2nd-places to go with one win early in the season in Dubai, but if he is timing his peak right around now, Degenkolb will be a great candidate for victory.

Movistar’s Juan José Lobato sports an excellent combination of climbing legs and sprinting prowess, and he has used that skillset to pick up several wins already this season (denying Degenkolb on multiple occasions). He will hope to build on his 4th-place here last year, and with the form he has shown so far in 2015, that seems like a real possibility. Should Movistar feel that Lobato’s bid is in doubt near the end of the day, the team could try to send Alejandro Valverde up the road on one of the two late climbs.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge has a similarly fine-tuned skillset combining climbing legs and a vicious finishing kick. His Paris-Nice victory suggests that the form is there as well. For Matthews, the main question mark is whether he can handle the distance. He doesn’t really have any results to speak of in overlong races. He could certainly change that at this year’s Milano-Sanremo, but it will be a foray into new territory.

Mark Cavendish headlines a collection of elite pure sprinters in attendance who will hope that their explosiveness is not too diminished by the time the peloton reaches the finish in San Remo. Cavendish has of course won this race in the past (in 2009) but it was a much younger Mark Cavendish taking the victory then. On last year’s parcours, similar to this year’s, Cavendish was with the main pack at the end of the day, but was unable to come away with more than a Top 5 after the long journey from Milan. With the Via Roma finish coming closer to the bottom of the Poggio, Cavendish will have to work even harder to maintain a strong position and his energy in the finale, making his candidacy as a top favorite questionable despite his legitimate claim to the title of fastest field sprinter on the startlist. Etixx-Quickstep does have alternatives on the roster in Michal Kwiatkowski and Zdenek Stybar, both on blazing form and capable of putting in a strong attack on a late climb in a one-day race.

Like Mark Cavendish, André Greipel is another powerful pure sprinter hoping to survive the long day with his strong kick intact. Coming off a sprint stage win at Paris-Nice, Greipel clearly has the sprinting form to contend in a bunch gallop, and in fact, he has made it a stated goal of this season to finally pick up a big one-day victory after years of near misses. If his pursuit of such a target has led him to improve his power and endurance, he will be a real contender here. Lotto-Soudal may look to Tony Gallopin as a second card to play near the finale.

The very long list of other quick men with a chance in a potential sprint, all of them with varying levels of versatility, includes Cofidis’s Nacer Bouhanni, the MTN-Qhubeka duo of Gerald Ciolek and Edvald Boasson Hagen, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, Sky’s Ben Swift (3rd last year, though entering the race with uncertain form this year), Cannondale-Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, Lampre-Merida’s duo of Niccolo Bonifazio and Davide Cimolai, Astana’s Andrea Guardini, and Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett.

Fabian Cancellara headlines the list of riders who could be looking to jump clear of the peloton in the final few kilometers. This parcours, without some of the uphill challenges of past editions, will make it very difficult for anyone to get away from the pack, but if anyone can do it, Fabian Cancellara is a prime pick. His time trial victory in Tirreno-Adriatico suggests that he is in formidable soloing shape at the moment, and he has done a great deal to work on his sprint this year should he come to the line with a small group. Cancellara was a surprising 2nd in last year’s bunch sprint, suggesting that he’s even a danger if he can’t shed the pack on the Poggio or the Cipressa. Having landed podium results each of the last four years, another strong placing seems practically guaranteed this year. Giacomo Nizzolo, fresh off a GP Nobili victory, offers Trek another option.

BMC’s duo of Philippe Gilbert and an on-form Greg Van Avermaet, Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali, Sky’s Geraint Thomas and Ian Stannard, IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Lampre-Merida’s Pippo Pozzato and Rui Costa are other riders to keep an eye on when the attacks start to fly around the Cipressa and the Poggio.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: John Degenkolb, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, JJ Lobato, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, Michael Matthews

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis of the race, and don’t forget to listen to the Recon Ride pre-race show for plenty more on the year’s first Monument. Check back soon for previews and roadside coverage of the upcoming Volta a Catalunya!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Martin Mystère.

March 21, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Volta a Catalunya 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 5: Volta a Catalunya 2015 Pre-race Show
The Volta a Catalunya kicks off right after Milano-Sanremo, which means the Recon Ride is back with another pre-race show.
[powerpress]

VeloHuman and Cyclocosm have teamed up again to present another episode of the Recon Ride, covering the Volta a Catalunya. With big GC names on almost every team making the trek to Spain, and climbs throughout the seven-day journey through Catalonia, the race should provide a healthy dose of uphill action. The Recon Ride takes a closer look.

Photo by Arnaucc.

March 20, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Milano-Sanremo 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 4: Milano-Sanremo 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the first Monument Classic of 2015.
[powerpress]

The first WorldTour one-day event on the calendar and the first “Monument” of the season, Sunday’s 293-kilometer ride from Milan to San Remo gives the Recon Ride podcast plenty to discuss. Will Alexander Kristoff defend his title? Can Peter Sagan finally get that marquee victory? Will an Italian rider show up to contend in a major Italian Classic? VeloHuman and Cyclocosm team up to cover all the major storylines.

Photo by Martin Mystère.

March 19, 2015
Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Preview

The 50th running of Tirreno-Adriatico offers the cycling world a double dose of WorldTour racing for a few days in March as it overlaps with Paris-Nice in France. The Italian stage race boasts a startlist that includes three of the top four Tour de France favorites (Chris Froome was on the startlist but has withdrawn with a chest infection), elite sprinters, and a bevy of Classics stars tuning up for the one-day races around the corner. Recent history would suggest that this race is an important test for those stars hoping to stand at cycling’s center stage. After winning here last season, Alberto Contador went on to nab quite a collection of results over the course of the rest of his year. In fact, the last six editions in a row have been won by riders who either already had or would go on to add Grand Tour victories to their palmares. No other one-week stage race can boast such a consistent correlation between its winners and the winners of the sport’s biggest events.

The Route

With chrono mileage, sprint stages, bumpier days, and a brutal summit finish all along the route, Tirreno-Adriatico has all the makings of a mini-Grand Tour. Stage 1 is a flat, 5.7-kilometer individual time trial that replaced a TTT at the last moment. Something this short isn’t likely to shake up the GC all that much but it can’t be overlooked either. Meanwhile, some of the more powerful sprinters on the startlist will appreciate the chance to get a rare chrono victory. They will have another chance to shine on the short and flat Stage 2, which will almost certainly end in a bunch gallop.

Things get a bit more interesting on Stage 3, where the peloton will overcome cobbles and some short climbs in the second half of the day likely to favor the punchier riders. Stage 4 poses several challenges, with climbs of the Poggio San Romualdo and Monte San Vicino followed by back-back ascents of the short but steep Crispiero climb, almost certain to launch late attacks.

Stage 5 of Tirreno-Adriatico will put the peloton to the test with a summit finish on the Terminillo climb. 16.1 kilometers at 7.3%, it’s a long slog to the top that will put serious pain into the legs of anyone coming into this race out of shape.

Stage 5: Esanatoglia › Terminillo (197 km) – The long Terminillo climb on the fifth stage of Tirreno Adriatico will be a difficult test of uphill power.

Bauke Mollema told the Recon Ride that this was going to be a climb for the “strong guys” where long-term wattage would be key, and it’s easy to see why.

Stage 6 brings the riders back down towards sea level and should end in a bunch sprint. The seventh and final stage is a flat, 10 kilometer ITT, one final chance for GC action on the last day of the race. From start to finish, it is a balanced route that will require a complete skillset to win. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at finishes (and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints) will benefit those with some punch.

General Classification Contenders

For weeks this was set up to be a clash of cycling’s “Big Four,” the four top favorites for the Tour de France, but Chris Froome withdrew from the startlist with a chest infection, leaving only three of those Grand Tour stars to battle it out with the rest of the contenders. It should still be quite a show.

Defending champion Alberto Contador will enter the race as the top favorite, with his combination of strong time trialing and elite climbing legs, and having shown great form in the Ruta del Sol, where only Froome could beat him. He dominated this race last year and it given his abilities it’s easy to see him head and shoulders above the competition again. Roman Kreuziger, who seems to be in excellent shape right now, will make for a strong support rider or a deadly alternative.

The alteration of Stage 1 from a TTT to an ITT helps Contador even more: his biggest rival looks to be last year’s runner-up Nairo Quintana, who rides for a Movistar team that would have likely put in an excellent performance in the group chrono; now, Quintana must go against the clock by himself, twice. That said, Quintana will have his opportunities to strike for glory on the challenging slopes that await in Tirreno-Adriatico, and he did show some form in January at the Tour de San Luis, where he was 3rd and even put in a decent ride in a mostly flat ITT. Quintana gets better every year (he just turned 25 in February), and he will relish the opportunity to climb one step higher on the podium than he did in the 2014 edition of the race.

Vincenzo Nibali has won here twice, and in top shape he would merit more consideration as the top overall favorite, but has not shown a great deal of form so far this season. He may be following a pattern similar to the one he followed last year, slowly building to his Tour de France peak; it certainly worked out for him in 2014. Furthermore, the route isn’t ideal for him, with its double helping of ITT days. Still, Nibali has gone from showing little form to riding at an elite level very quickly in the past. If that is what he has in mind for Tirreno-Adriatico, watch for him to try to take an early advantage on Stage 3, where short steep climbs will provide launching pads and late descents could help Nibali, a brilliant descender, escape from the peloton if he makes the attempt. A powerful team that includes Dario Cataldo, Michele Scarponi, and Lieuwe Westra will give Astana options.

The form of Joaquim Rodríguez, who typically merits inclusion among the top favorites in a stage race, is a major unknown after quiet starts in Dubai and Oman. The course doesn’t suit him particularly well either, though Purito can never be counted out. Daniel Moreno is here for Katusha as well. Unlike Rodríguez, Moreno has put in decent rides in San Luis and Oman already this season.

New Colombian ITT champ Rigoberto Urán flashed some form in Strade Bianche, where he was 7th, and this is an excellent parcours for him. Tirreno-Adriatico has difficult climbs, but nothing of the incredibly steep variety that might put him into difficulty against the likes of Contador. For Urán, the time trials and potential for bonus seconds (his finishing kick is impressive) on a few stages will be a golden opportunity to challenge the defending champion, as well as the only two riders who have finished the Giro ahead of him the past two season, Nibali and Quintana.

Bauke Mollema will lead the charge for Trek Factory Racing, and he says that he’s feeling good after an offseason with his new team, which a string of good results in early season races seems to confirm. Julián Arredondo gives Trek another dangerous option on the climbs.

Despite the absence of Chris Froome, Sky will still have a strong presence in Tirreno-Adriatico. Leopold König sports a strong time trial and can climb with the best on a good day and Mikel Nieve was 4th in the Ruta del Sol in February. Both riders should be motivated to take advantage of the opportunity to ride for their own results.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo would probably prefer more mountains, but he can’t be ignored here. He was 6th last year, and is coming off a nice ride in the Tour Down Under. Teammate Carlos Betancur is a bit of a wildcard, brilliant at his best but not having shown any form since this time last year. Cannondale-Garmin will have the weapons to make for an interesting race with Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Formolo, and Daniel Martin. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot would prefer less chrono mileage but he has improved in that discipline over the past few seasons and will hope to make up any time he loses in the ITTs on the climbs in the middle of the race. New teammate Steve Morabito is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Tirreno-Adriatico. After several years at BMC working as a reliable support rider, Morabito joined FDJ over the offseason. He’s a great climber and decent in the time trials, but he did not get many opportunities to ride for himself at BMC. It should be clear pretty early on in this race whether he is being given a chance to get his own results; if he is, he should surprise some people. Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Pierre Rolland, and Louis Meintjes are other outsiders with a shot.

Stagehunters

Much like Froome among the GC contenders, a sick Marcel Kittel withdrew from the race and the sprinters conversation, leaving Mark Cavendish looking like the top rider for the sprints. He will still have competition, however, especially as he and leadout man Mark Renshaw are both overcoming illness. Sky’s new acquisition Elia Viviani has beaten Cavendish more than once in the past and will hope to do so here. IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi is in great shape right now and should be in the mix. Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett won a hotly contested sprint stage in Qatar and will be dangerous in the fast finishes. Peter Sagan will likely be involved in the bunch sprints as well, and will be especially dangerous on Stage 3, which finishes in Arezzo, where he won last year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo, Giant’s Luka Mezgec, and Tyler Farrar and Matt Goss of MTN-Qhubeka are other fast men to watch out for.

With two chrono stages, the time trial talents merit a mention as well: Adriano Malori, Fabian Cancellara, Ian Stannard, and Niki Terpstra should all appreciate the pair of opportunities to pick up WorldTour stage wins against the clock at the open and close of the race.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Urán
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Bauke Mollema, Domenico Pozzovivo, Roman Kreuziger, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Leopold König

For daily stage predictions and more Tirreno-Adriatico commentary, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter. And of course, don’t miss the Recon Ride for Tirreno-Adriatico 2015, which covers all the big storylines of the race and even includes a bit of insider insight from GC contender Bauke Mollema.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Francesco Ianett.

March 9, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 3: Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride talks route, favorites, and more for the Race of the Two Seas, with a guest appearance by Trek’s Bauke Mollema.
[powerpress]

While some of the peloton’s big names are in France for Paris-Nice, Grand Tour favorites and top sprinters and classics riders alike will take on Tirreno-Adriatico this week. VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm.com delve into the roadbook, discuss the riders to watch, and even talk to GC contender Bauke Mollema of Trek Factory Racing about what to expect in Italy.

Update: this show was recorded and published before a flurry of late changes to the race narrative, among them the withdrawals of Chris Froome and Marcel Kittel, and the modification of Stage 1 from a team time trial into an individual time trial. However, the Recon Ride covers so many aspects of this race that there should still be plenty here to get you prepared for Tirreno-Adriatico.

Photo by Johan Haggi.

March 8, 2015
Paris-Nice 2015 Preview

After a February break, WorldTour racing is upon us again. The 73rd running of Paris-Nice brings time trials and high mountains back into play after a year without them. The 2014 edition of the race favored punchy opportunists with a talent for nabbing bonus seconds, but this year’s event will put the more prototypical General Classification contenders in the best position to challenge for the overall victory. While Tirreno-Adriatico may have drawn the “big four” Grand Tour contenders, there are still plenty of elite talents headed to France this weekend to contest the Race to the Sun. As the European WorldTour opener, and the season-opener for many big names, and with another shakeup of the parcours, Paris-Nice offers plenty of storylines to make for an interesting race (storylines also investigated in further detail in the Recon Ride’s Paris-Nice pre-race show, which you should check out if you haven’t already).

The Route

Paris-Nice opens with a short, flat prologue of 6.7 kilometers. It’s hardly long enough to open big gaps on GC but this should be a close race so the riders hoping to fight for the overall victory here will be on their toes. A flat Stage 1 should go to the pure sprinters, and the fast men will likely get another chance on the similarly flat Stage 2. A very slightly inclined finish on Stage 3 could at least give the lighter sprinters an advantage to mix things up, but it should again be large group that reaches the line together in Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule.

The mountains arrive quite suddenly on Stage 4. Early climbs in the profile could prove a nice launching pad, and late climbs and winding roads a nice buffer, for a strong breakaway, but whether stage honors are on the line or not, the GC battle will be fierce.

Stage 4: Varennes-sur-Allier › Croix de Chaubouret (204 km) – After several day of flat profiles, a summit finish on Stage 4 will suddenly put the GC contenders to the test.

The Cat. 1 closing climb of the Croix de Chauboret doesn’t compare to some of the more grueling climbs these riders will face in the Grand Tours later this season but at the end of a day of constant climb, and this early in the season, it will very likely catch a number of contenders out. It’s a mostly gradual ascent to the summit finish but a high tempo from one of the powerhouse teams is sure to leave big names off the back before the line.

A few bumps along the road to Rasteau and an uphill drag to the line will make Stage 5 an interesting battleground on which sprinters, aggressors, and punchier climbers will all have a chance. The more explosive GC riders could be on the lookout for bonus seconds.

Bonus seconds could also be hotly contested on Stage 6, which is up and down all day long with a total of three Category 2 climbs and three Category 1 climbs. After the last (Cat. 1) climb it’s a long downhill run to the line. If the climbs don’t give the uphill purists room to get separation, a small group could descend the Côte de Peille together, which will guarantee an exciting final few minutes.

Paris-Nice ends with a 9.6-kilometer time trial up the Col d’Éze, also the final battleground for both the 2012 and 2013 editions of the race. The 4.7% average gradient may not look like much but past editions has proven that this is a chrono for the elite climbers.

Stage 7 (ITT): Nice › Col d’Éze (9.6 km) – Past editions of the race have proven that this climb is not to be taken lightly.

Under 10 kilometers though it may be, the Col d’Éze climb is going to open up gaps in the General Classification fight, guaranteeing that Paris-Nice will come down to the very last day.

All told, there’s something for everyone in Paris-Nice. Those battling for overall supremacy will need to battle through a variety of different challenges, against gravity and against the clock, to emerge victorious. Meanwhile, those hoping to come away from Europe first WorldTour race of the year with stage wins will face stiff competition with the long list of strong sprinters.

The General Classification Contenders

More so than the 2014 edition, the 2015 Paris-Nice route is especially favorable to the big engine riders who can fend for themselves in the time trials and long vertical drags. Coming off of a strong performance in the Tour Down Under (where his inability to consolidate bonus seconds left him just off the top step of the podium) Richie Porte is clearly in terrific shape for the year, and Paris-Nice offers him a a golden opportunity to put his National Championship-winning ITT skills on display. His great climbing legs put him in the lead a few stages prior in the 2013 Paris-Nice, and he clinched the overall win on that year’s run up the Col d’Éze, where no one was faster. Two years since then, with that challenging finale returning to the route, Porte’s GC bid will be difficult to overcome in 2015, especially backed by the powerhouse Sky powerhouse lineup that includes Geraint Thomas and Nicolas Roche as dangerous support riders or potential alternatives.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is another rider capable of battling with the very best in both the climbs and the time trial. Fresh from the Tour of Oman, where he was a close runner-up, van Garderen looks lean and on-form. In fact, he has a history of performing very well early in the season. The steady gradient of the Stage 4 finishing climb suits him well, both time trials should be opportunities for him to advance on the GC leaderboard, and he even has a bit more explosiveness than many realize should he find himself in a small group with bonus seconds on the line at any point. With Cadel Evans in retirement, now is the time for van Garderen to prove that he can be the sole GC leader of this team, and his combination of skills puts him in an excellent spot to do so here. Van Garderen also has an excellent team around him, with Rohan Dennis, climbing better than ever, as a very strong second.

Rui Costa was 2nd in last year’s race (and in fact racked up a pair of 2nd-place stage finishes along the way) but he has the skill set to thrive on the updated parcours as well, combining great climbing legs with time trialing chops that can’t be overlooked (though they often are) and the explosiveness and aggressiveness to win battles for bonus seconds. With Rafael Valls, fresh off a Tour of Oman victory, here as well, Lampre should be able to hold their own.

Multi-talented Michal Kwiatkowski will look to attack the GC leaderboard early even from the first day of racing, with prologues a particularly forte of his, and he should be in the mix for bonus seconds here and there throughout the race. At times, he has flashed brilliance even on the tough mountain climbs, but he has had a tendency to suffer a bad day in the mountains here and there in his career. If he can avoid that sort of off-day in Paris-Nice and stay close to the best climbers, he will have a great shot at the overall win.

Dutch rising star Wilco Kelderman had a very impressive 2014 and he will look to continue to develop as LottoNL’s GC star this season. Interestingly, he did not quite perform to (high) expectations in the chronos last year, but a 2nd-place ITT finish in Andalucia last month has him looking sharp and ready to race against the clock this year. Ever-improving climbing skills and a fierce finishing kick for the bonus seconds make him a strong competitor.

Rafal Majka of Tinkoff-Saxo will likely do a lot of work for Alberto Contador this season, but the 25-year-old Polish climber, 4th overall in Oman last month, is in great shape at the moment and won’t pass up an opportunity to mix it up in a WorldTour race. He is an excellent uphill time trialist who should perform well on the final stage. Fabio Aru of Astana also knows about being the second of two elite GC riders on one team, and with clouds of uncertainty hanging over Astana, now would be a good time for him to make a statement as the featured GC rider while Vincenzo Nibali is leading the squad in Tirreno-Adriatico. At his best, Aru would rival Porte as a pre-race favorite but his completely unknown form makes him more of a question mark. Teammate Jakob Fuglsang will be an excellent second, 5th here last year on a parcours that did not suit him particularly well. 7th in Oman in February, Fuglsang is the in-form rider. With Lieuwe Westra and Luis Leon Sanchez (two riders with results in Paris-Nice in the past) here as well, Astana will almost certainly be on the move at every opportunity.

Andrew Talansky is a question mark for form at the moment, not having raced at all in 2015, but Paris-Nice was something of a coming out party for him in 2013, and with a similar course he has the skillset to thrive again. Jean-Christophe Péraud was on the podium that year as well, but his form is dubious right now. Teammate Romain Bardet looks like the better option for AG2R. Mathias Frank is a massive talent in the one-week events for IAM Cycling. Warren Barguil isn’t much for the time trials, but with the uphill nature of Stage 7, that may not hurt him too much. He should fight for a Top 10. Katusha’s Tiago Machado, Simon Spilak, and Sergey Chernetskiy should be in the mix on the climbs and with their combined firepower, they have the ability to attack the GC leaderboard from several angles.

Simon Yates of Orica-GreenEdge, Movistar’s trio of Rubén Fernández, Beñat Intxausti, and Ion Izaguirre, and Trek’s Bob Jungels (who has a great shot at winning the prologue) will also hope to get involved in the GC conversation. VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Paris-Nice is Eduardo Sepúlveda of Bretagne-Séché Environnement. 4th overall in San Luis in January and the winner of the recent Classic Sud Ardèche, Sepúlveda is the complete GC package and sporting great form right now. For his team, motivation to put on a show at the WorldTour level will be high, and the 23-year-old Argentinian has the skillset to take up the charge.

The Stagehunters

The list of top sprinting talents making the start in Paris-Nice seems to go on forever. Though Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel won’t set out from Maurepas, the startlist does include André Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni, Alexander Kristoff, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, and John Degenkolb as the riders likeliest to contend for the sprint finishes. Michael Matthews, Heinrich Haussler, and Ben Swift will hope to get involved on the slightly bumpier days.

Punchy Arthur Vichot, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin, Philippe Gilbert, and Tom-Jelte Slagter will look to get into the mix when the road is too hard for the sprinting powerhouses, as may be the case in the finale of the hard-to-predict Stage 5.

The startlist is also overflowing with elite time trailing specialists. In addition to those mentioned as GC contenders, Bradley Wiggins, Tony Martin, Tom Dumoulin, and Thomas De Gendt are among the many in attendance who excel against the clock.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Tejay van Garderen
Podium: Richie Porte, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Wilco Kelderman, Rafal Majka, Andrew Talansky, Fabio Aru, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Paris-Nice commentary and daily stage predictions, and check back soon for plenty of Tirreno-Adriatico pre-race analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 6, 2015