After a year in the rainbow stripes, Rui Costa donned Lampre fuschia in today’s Il Lombardia, having handed over his World Championship title to rising star Michal Kwiatkowski in Ponferrada last weekend. The Tour of Lombardy, taking place on Costa’s 28th birthday, proved an excellent opportunity for him to land a nice result: he sprinted to 3rd in a select group behind the day’s winner, Daniel Martin, yet another good performance for Costa in a season that has been full of them. The Portuguese star may not have taken a lot of outright wins in 2014, but he has been a major protagonist in several big races all year. His two victories came in the Tour de Suisse, where he won a stage and the overall, and he also notched 2nd places in Paris-Nice and in the GP Montréal, his final WorldTour race in the rainbow jersey. He’d hoped for a better result in the Tour de France (he abandoned midway through, suffering from pneumonia) but even in that race, he was riding well prior to his exit.
Reflecting on his season from Italy today, he told VeloHuman that he was pleased with his time as the World Champ: “I think I did a very good year with the rainbow. Only two victories but many podiums and points so I am happy with my results. I hope next year will be like this one.”
Costa made the Worlds defense a major priority this season, but repeating his result was a tall order: the parcours in Ponferrada was significantly less climber-friendly than the circuit in Florence that saw him ride into the rainbow stripes in 2013.
“In this Worlds I was not so good as I wished to be, but I felt okay. This profile was not so good for me as last year. In 2013 it was more difficult and I prefer hard profiles,” Costa said.
While his 23rd place in Ponferrada was disappointing, Costa, having come to terms with the fact that defending his title was always going to be extremely difficult, seems to be in good spirits even with his year in the rainbow jersey behind him. Plus, handing over that jersey comes with a few positives. For one, he is no longer the focus of quite as much attention, allowing him to concentrate more completely on racing.
“The rainbow jersey represents a high responsibility and intense scrutiny,” he said. “I think there will be less pressure on me this year. . . . I hope so.”
Without having to worry about that intense scrutiny, Costa kicked off his time in Lampre-Merida colors in style, nabbing his first ever Monument Classic podium in Il Lombardia. It’s certainly a promising start to his career as a now-former World Champ. Next, he’ll make the long flight to China to take on the year’s final WorldTour race, the Tour of Beijing, where he’s hoping for a good result; he told VeloHuman that he’s currently feeling “okay” in terms of form, which his performance in Italy would seem to confirm.
After a year full of encouraging results, Costa has high hopes for next season. “I will try to do a Top 10 in the Tour for next year. My calendar for 2015 will be similar to this year. I think that is best for me,” he said.
With plenty of nice results that he can build on, Costa has reason to feel confident for both his next race, in Beijing, and his next season. With his excellent Tour de Suisse and a collection of high finishes elsewhere, he performed at a high level even under the World Champion’s spotlight, and with a podium placing in his first post-Worlds race, Costa looks primed for continued success in the near future.
Dan Martin closed out the year’s final Monument Classic with panache, jumping clear of a select bunch inside the last kilometer to deny some fast finishers in the group a chance to sprint for the win. New changes to Il Lombardia’s route certainly played their part in deciding the eventual winner of the race, with none of the many elite uphill specialists on the startlist able to get much separation on the climbs, but that didn’t deter the 27-year-old Irish star: he hung with the lead group and launched a brilliant late strike on the final flat to take the win while many of the of favorites simply watched him fly past. Martin may not have taken as many big results this season as he would have hoped, but his second Monument victory shouldn’t really come as a surprise, as he has flashed his great ability on numerous occasions throughout the year, only to be derailed several times by untimely crashes. After a great ride in La Fleche Wallonne, Martin looked to be in a great position to nab another Monument in the ensuing Liege-Bastogne-Liege and his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Giro d’Italia. Crashes took him out of contention in both races, but he picked up his first Grand Tour Top 10 (in the Vuelta) and now he’s won that second Monument anyway. An explosive climber with a special talent for the one-day races and currently in his prime, Martin should be a major threat in the hilly classics for years to come.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has been a major threat in the hilly classics for years already, but he followed a familiar script in Il Lombardia, hoping for a reduced sprint at the end of a tough day; that plan didn’t work in Ponferrada last week (where a lack of cohesion in a strong chasing group left Valverde and Simon Gerrans sprinting for the lower steps of the podium behind Michal Kwiatkowski), and it failed again here. As strong as Valverde has been in 2014, his results have included a whole lot of near misses, but I’m not sure he plans on changing his approach any time soon.
Rui Costa landed another big result in a season also filled with near misses, but it can’t be said that he hasn’t given 100% trying to turn those close calls into wins: just as was the case in Montreal, where he finished 2nd, he made the attempt to jump clear late here but was unable to get any space, and still managed to add a nice result to his palmares. In fact, this was his first ever podium in a Monument Classic.
Tim Wellens of Lotto Belisol has been a revelation this year, and his 4th place in Il Lombardia is a nice addition to his already impressive list of achievements in 2014. He has explosiveness and has performed well on difficult profiles throughout the season. He tried to escape from the lead group over the Bergamo Alta, and though he did not succeed, his Top 5 finish in the company of an Olympic champion, a World Champion, and multiple Monument winners is something to be proud of.
The parcours of the new route was not as favorable to Joaquim Rodriguez, who could only manage 8th place after dominating this race in back-to-back years. Fellow climbing specialist Fabio Aru was confident coming into this race and earned a lot of attention as a potential contender, but the last two climbs just weren’t hard enough to launch the pure climbers to victory, and the young Italian had to settle for 9th.
Another rider who will be disappointed with his day in Italy is newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski. He spent much of the day very close to the front of the peloton, looking to be in good shape, and with the way the race played out, one might have expected a strong challenge for victory from Kwiatkowski, but he was badly affected by cramps in the last 10 kilometers of the race, suddenly cutting the power to his engine just as things started to heat up. It’s not the result he was hoping for, of course, but it’s been a long season for Kwiatkowski, and now he’ll at least have an opportunity to recharge the batteries before what’s sure to be an exciting 2015 in the rainbow jersey.
With Il Lombardia in the rearview mirror, only one race remains on the 2014 WorldTour calendar! Stay tuned for the preview of the Tour of Beijing, and plenty more analysis as the season comes to a close.
Worlds may be over, but the 2014 cycling season isn’t quite done yet. There are still two events on the WorldTour calendar, including the final Monument of the year, Il Lombardia (formerly the Giro di Lombardia, the Tour of Lombardy). It’s a race with a lot of history, and the parcours (though updated this year) always provides plenty of uphill challenges to make for an exciting day; in recent years, those challenges have proven ideal for climbing specialist Joaquim Rodriguez, who has won the previous two editions.
The Route
Still a scenic ride through the hilly Lombardy region of Italy, the “Race of the Falling Leaves” has a new route with new climbs to overcome this year. Instead of starting in Bergamo, Il Lombardia 2014 will finish there, setting out from Como and weaving alongside lakes and over several climbs before the line after a total of 254 kilometers. The first vertical challenge is the Madonna del Ghisallo, which, in previous editions, featured much later in the route. This year, it will be crested only 58 kilometers into the race, but it will still inject plenty of pain into the legs early in the day. Roughly 8.6 kilometers at around a 6.2% average grade, the climb is significantly harder than those general numbers would suggest due to its irregular nature. Things flatten out for a few kilometers in the middle of the ascent, but on both sides of this reprieve are stretches where the gradient jumps over 10%.
After the Madonna del Ghisallo, things ease off for a while as the road heads toward Bergamo, which the riders will pass through a little over 130 kilometers into the race before embarking on a long, wide loop that will take them over some challenging climbs on the way back to Bergamo for the finish. The tough stuff starts in earnest with the Colle Gallo (7.4 km at 6%) after about 157 kilometers, and from there it’s mostly up and down to the line. After a fast descent comes the hardest climb of the race, the Passo di Ganda, 9.2 kilometers at 7.3%. Crested about 65 kilometers from the finish, it’s certain to force some selection. A tricky descent follows, interrupted by a short but very steep climb to Bracca, and then another downhill stretch to the foot of the Berbenno climb, which is likely to be a major battleground. 5.5 kilometers at 5.3%, there are a few particularly steep stretches early on, maxing out at 10%. From the top, it’s less than 30 kilometers from the finish line. The peloton will take on a fast descent and then ride on relatively flat roads until the final climb of the day, the Bergamo Alta. It’s only a little over a kilometer to the top, but the average gradient is a demanding 7.9%, and once the climb is crested less than 4 km remain to the line, mostly downhill and with plenty of twists and turns along the way; the winner of the race will likely be one of the first few riders over the Bergamo Alta, as there isn’t much room to recover lost ground after the climb. The ensuing downhill gradient flattens out for the final 500 meters of the race, which could set up a reduced sprint to the line if a small group of riders are together in the lead.
As an autumn race, Il Lombardia is no stranger to difficult conditions. Purito’s two victories have both been rainy affairs, and there is again a chance of rain this year; with so many descents on the docket, wet roads would certainly shake up an already unpredictable race.
The Contenders
The Final Monument Classic of the season, Il Lombardia tends to draw most of the top specialists of the hilly one-day events looking to take one last big prize on the year; the 2014 edition of the race is no exception. Joaquim Rodriguez returns to Il Lombardia hoping to collect his third straight win. It won’t be easy. He has been on decent form in the second half of his season, but he wasn’t quite at the level he’d planned to be during the Vuelta and he did not make as much of an impact at Worlds as maybe he’d hoped. Still, he has been unstoppable in Lombardy in the past few seasons, landing three straight podium performances, and he put in a strong ride (to take 5th) in this week’s Milano-Torino. I’m not sure the new parcours suits him quite as well as past editions did, but Purito is motivated to get more out of this year than he has so far. Katusha has a lot of firepower in the race to support Rodriguez or to provide alternatives. Daniel Moreno was 6th in this race last year and is a particularly strong sprinter even on flat roads should he find himself in shootout late, and he showed good form in Milano-Torino, coming in 3rd. The winner of that race also happens to ride for Katusha: Giampaolo Caruso, always aggressive and having a strong year (he was 4th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege), will be another weapon in Il Lombardia, as will Alexandr Kolobnev. The team will need all hands on deck, given the startlist and a less Purito-friendly profile, to defend their title.
Alejandro Valverde was runner-up in 2013 and the alterations to the route should be just fine with him; he couldn’t stay with Rodriguez on the Villa Vergano climb last year, and he no longer has to worry about that this year. Valverde’s versatile skillset makes him a difficult opponent. He may have Grand Tour-winning climbing talent, but he also has an especially strong sprint, and that could be critical to victory here. Few riders likely to survive the entire day at the head of affairs are as quick at the finish as Valverde; expect to see his rivals do everything they can in an attempt to drop him before the final few kilometers (which will be a pretty tall order). They know that Valverde, coming off a podium performance at Worlds, is probably the top favorite for the race, even with Rodriguez here looking for a third straight win. Movistar also has Giovanni Visconti and several top climbers in attendance, among them, Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre.
One rider who may have the top speed to challenge even Valverde in a reduced sprint finale is new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski. His daring escape from the peloton in the Ponferrada finale may be his most famous accomplishment so far in his career, but his finishing kick is very impressive in and of itself. If he can hold on over the tough climbs, he can contest the victory in a number of ways, whether that means launching another bold move or holding on for a group finish. The rainbow jersey isn’t the only threat on a loaded OPQS team: Rigoberto Uran is a two-time podium finisher in this race, Pieter Serry was an impressive 7th last year, and Wout Poels and Gianluca Brambilla have been particularly strong in 2014.
Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin has been 8th, 4th, and even 2nd in this race already in his career; the 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner thrives in the hillier one-day races, and Il Lombardia definitely qualifies. Martin’s sprinting chops seem to have improved this year should a small group reach the line together, and he should again be one of the top contenders in the race. Ryder Hesjedal and Tom-Jelte Slagter will give Garmin-Sharp a strong, multi-facted attack plan.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador may not have the one-day resume to match his stage-racing palmares, but on a climber-friendly parcours, few are as dangerous. He will need to get clear of the faster finishers, but the abundance of ascents, especially the Berbenno climb (though not especially challenging by itself, it does have steep stretches and it comes near the end of a day full of ups and downs) will give him opportunities. Success in the Monument Classics has eluded Contador so far in his career but he’s had a brilliant year and looked to still be on strong form even in October with a 6th place in Milano-Torino. Teammate Oliver Zaugg was the surprise winner of this race in 2011, and he’s not having a bad year himself.
The back-to-back Giro di Lombardia victories of BMC’s Philippe Gilbert may seem like a lifetime ago now, but he should still be a threat on this parcours. Coming off a strong ride at Worlds, where he was really the only rider in the first chase group doing any work attempting to close down Michal Kwiatkowski and still landed 7th, Gilbert looks to be on good form. The short climb that closes out this race will be a nice potential launching pad for Gilbert; alternatively, he could rely on his strong sprint if he sticks with the lead group over the top. Samuel Sanchez, a four-time podium finisher here, can’t be overlooked either. 6th overall in this year’s hotly contested Vuelta is nothing to sneeze at, and his age probably hasn’t diminished his elite descending skills, which will come in handy here. Tejay van Garderen and Cadel Evans bring even more firepower for BMC.
Now former World Champion Rui Costa wasn’t able to make it into the Gerrans/Valverde move in Ponferrada, but he finished respectably with the group behind, and the form he showed in Montreal isn’t likely to have faded just yet. This is an excellent profile for Costa, who is particularly adept at breaking away from the pack on hillier days and capable in a reduced sprint as well, and he is highly motivated to pick up more victories this season.
AG2R may have explosive Carlos Betancur and Tour de France runner-up Jean-Christophe Peraud on the startlist, but Romain Bardet looks to be the team’s strongest option, having shown some surprising one-day racing chops this season (10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 5th in Montreal). Il Lombardia suits him about as well as any classic on the calendar, and he’ll be among the most dangerous potential escapees on the late climbs. Rinaldo Nocentini, 2nd in Milano-Torino, is obviously on terrific form and could be in contention as well, as could Domenico Pozzovivo.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema has the uphill talent to get involved at the business end of the race, and an underrated finishing kick, especially after a lumpy day (he outsprinted Joaquim Rodriguez for 2nd in the Clasica de San Sebastian in August). With Wilco Kelderman, another very complete rider, Lars Petter Nordhaug, and Laurens Ten Dam as well, Belkin has options. Lotto-Belisol is another team with several different weapons here: Tony Gallopin will hope to stick with the premium climbing favorites over the harder ascents so that he can challenge for victory with a late escape or in a reduced sprint finish, while Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert are both excellent bets to get aggressive on the hills. Orica-GreenEdge, as might be expected in a race with this many hills, also has a stacked squad, with Michael Albasini, an excellent climber with a fast finish, probably the strongest option and Daryl Impey, Esteban Chaves, Pieter Weening, and Adam and Simon Yates all dangerous, too. Astana has elite uphill talent Fabio Aru, who may not have the classics experience, but who can attack on a climb better than almost anyone in the professional peloton; meanwhile, Enrico Gasparotto is an always-underrated contender in the hilly one-day races, and he was 5th in last year’s Tour of Lombardy. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot, Cannondale’s strong and on-form Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Damiano Caruso, Giant-Shumano’s Tom Dumoulin, Warren Barguil, and Simon Geschke, Bardiani’s Edoardo Zardini, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Trek’s Frank Schleck (a decent 9th in Milano-Torino) and Julian Arredondo, and Caja Rural’s Luis Leon Sanchez are on the long list of outside contenders who will hope to be in the mix as well. Sky’s Ben Swift deserves the final mention; it seems highly unlikely that he’d survive to the finish, but he’s a more capable climber and one-day racer than most other sprinters, and this profile at least leaves the door open just a bit.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Alejandro Valverde Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Michal Kwiatkowski Other Top Contenders: Daniel Martin, Alberto Contador, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the final race of the 2014 season, the Tour of Beijing, and more interviews and analysis!
With the big favorites holding back even as the pack crested the penultimate climb, it looked like it might be a less-than-thrilling finale at this year’s World Championships, but everything changed when Michal Kwiatkowski divebombed the circuit’s second to last descent, caught up with a fading break up the road, sailed past them, and stayed clear over the final kilometers. At the end of the day, a familiar trio, the exact same three that had stood on the podium in April’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege, received the medals at Worlds, but with a crucial difference: Michal Kwiatkowski came away with the win, having made a gutsy escape from his rivals and held on for victory.
Takeaways from the Elite Men’s Road Race
Michal Kwiatkowski took plenty of victories this season, in Strade Bianchi and in the prologue of the Tour de Romandie, for instance, but the big one-day race wins eluded him, just barely. He was quite impressive in the Ardennes in particular, but despite being inside the Top 5 in all three races, he was unable to grab the top spot on the podium in any of them. Now, he’s got his marquee one-day victory. He did it with the help of a dedicated Polish team that spent a lot of time setting the pace early, doing more than a little damage to wear down the peloton. In the preview, I mentioned Kwiatkowski’s support squad as something not to be underestimated. Thanks mostly to Kwiatkowski himself and countryman Rafal Majka and the bevy of WorldTour points they racked up in their stellar seasons, the team was well-staffed in this Worlds, and it showed. They made the race hard, and they kept their man at the front and out of trouble during a hectic day. Even with that strong support, however, it still took a massive effort to win the race. The performance highlighted the amazing completeness of Kwiatkowski’s skillset: his descending skills, which allowed him to open up the initial gap to the peloton, his explosiveness, which allowed him to break free from would-be hangers-on in the group up the road, and his climbing and soloing abilities, which allowed him to maintain his gap over the final climb and all the way to the line. A true all-rounder, Kwiatkowski will have plenty of opportunities to take more wins over the next 364 days while holding the title of World Champion.
With a kilometer to go in the race, Alejandro Valverde and Simon Gerrans were both well-positioned to fight for the victory, but in the end they were left battling for the lower steps of the podium. Given the small gap between Kwiatkowski and his chasers, it’s hard not to criticize the poor cooperation in the group behind: Philippe Gilbert was really the only rider putting in any work in the final few minutes, and had he received any help from the rest of the group, it’s quite possible that we would have a different rainbow jersey wearer in 2015. Given the stellar form of Simon Gerrans, he may have even been able to put in a few pulls and still won the sprint. Podium places are nice, but this was a serious dropping of the ball.
Another World Championship without a win for Fabian Cancellara, for whom this is always such an important race. He missed the move in the final lap and never had a chance after that, landing a disappointing 11th (though, outsprinting Ben Swift, Sonny Colbrelli, Michael Matthews, and Ramunas Navardauskas is actually rather impressive, another sign of a vastly improved finishing kick late in Cancellara’s career, even if it wasn’t worth much at all). Meanwhile, Classics rival Peter Sagan didn’t feature; the form was a question mark coming in, and it turned out that he just couldn’t make a difference in the end.
One rider who did manage to just eke out a Top 10 performance was Nacer Bouhanni: it may be a minor footnote in the history of this race, which will be remembered for Kwiatkowski’s brilliant escape, but the fact that Bouhanni managed to stick with the pack over 254.8 hilly kilometers is a big deal. His ride in Ponferrada, coupled with several nice showings on some of the Vuelta’s hillier stages, will help his confidence on the more difficult days moving forward.
For the second year running, and the third time and four years, the winner of the World Championship Road Race did not ride in the Vuelta. Neither did the runner-up, for that matter. Nor the rider who won the bunch sprint behind the escapees. The Vuelta has long been considered the optimal preparation for Worlds, but clearly, times are changing.
The Italian team didn’t have anyone inside the Top 10. I didn’t find that particularly surprising given their team selection, which I questioned from the start. They just didn’t seem to really understand the parcours, leaving riders like Pippo Pozzato and Giacomo Nizzolo at home and focusing their team around Vincenzo Nibali, for whom this was not a particularly well-tailored profile.
Lastly, a word on the Danes. Matti Breschel put in his fourth Top 7 performance in a Worlds Road Race. Big results in other races on the pro calendar are pretty rare for the 30-year-old, but he always seems to be in the mix in the biggest one-day race of the year. Meanwhile, teammate Michael Valgren spent a lot of time out front in Ponferrada, doing much of the work driving the pace in a group of escapees. He still managed to land 20th overall. The 22-year-old, closing out his first season with Tinkoff-Saxo, has a bright future ahead of him.
Check back soon for the preview of Il Lombardia, the season’s final Monument Classic!
The Ponferrada World Championships will come to a close with the Men’s Elite Road Race. Cycling’s biggest stars have been training and riding in tuneup races for some time now, but the weekend of the main event has arrived. With the rainbow jersey on the line and a parcours that should make for a wide open race, it looks set to be quite a showdown.
The Route
The Road Race takes place on an 18.2 kilometer circuit in and around Ponferrada, Spain. The peloton will complete 14 laps of the circuit, making for a total race distance of 254.8 kilometers.
Each lap involves a pair of climbs and also pair of tricky descents that, especially as the day nears its conclusion, are likely to see plenty of action from the more aggressive riders in the pack. First in the circuit is the Confederación climb, 5.2 kilometers at an average of 3.3%. Despite the low gradient, the ascent starts out with a few stretches that hit 8%. After the riders crest the climb, they will take on a very sharp descent. Then comes the Mirador climb, 1.1 kilometers at 5.5% but with two stretches (at the beginning of the climb and again near the top) of around 10%. Another descent follows, and the road doesn’t flatten out until there are less than 2 kilometers remaining before the finish line. The last few kilometers involve a few twists and turns, including a sharp right hander in the final 1000 meters.
There is a chance of rain in the forecast. If the conditions are poor, the technical downhills will get a lot more hectic, and what is already going to be a long day in the saddle will get a lot more uncomfortable.
The Contenders
A moderately challenging profile will become much more difficult as 14 laps are completed, but this is still a parcours that will appeal to those riders with a powerful kick. The Ponferrada circuit, much like a number of circuit races on the WorldTour calendar that have preceded it, has challenges to guarantee action before the finish while still allowing for a sprint as a likely outcome: the inclines never reach extreme gradients and the last kilometer is quite flat. Still, a lumpy journey of over 250 kilometers will greatly whittle down the pack, and a perfectly timed and determined escape attempt will have a chance at staying clear, and even if this does come down to a sprint, it will be a select group battling it out for the victory. As such, winning the rainbow jersey in 2014 will require decent climbing legs and the toughness to stay sharp after a long day in the saddle, and either the kick to outsprint the (likely somewhat reduced) peloton at the line, the power to get clear of the pack before the finish, or a blend of both, to stay with any late attackers and then outmatch them in a high-speed finale.
No other rider in attendance combines current form, a well-tailored skillset, and a powerful team quite as well as Simon Gerrans. He proved that he is in top shape by sweeping the Canadian GPs (his second victory, in Montreal, was particularly dominant), and with Milano-Sanremo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on his career palmares, he is a proven contender in sprint finishes that follow difficult days in the saddle in even the biggest races. The climbs shouldn’t be a problem for the Australian, who also has the power to glue himself to any aggressive wheels should any late attacks look particularly dangerous. Holding out for the sprint has been his strategy in these sorts of races lately, but he is also an accomplished attacker himself. In any scenario, he is a threat, and he leads a very powerful squad. Teammate Michael Matthews is a deadly alternative, even faster in a sprint and also capable of handling a few climbs. Matthews, still just 24, does not have the same resume for the very long days (though he has thrived on the hillier profiles in his career, none of his big wins have come after this much distance) but he has shown remarkable versatility and shouldn’t be counted out given the likelihood of a sprint. With Cadel Evans, Rohan Dennis, Adam Hansen, and Heinrich Haussler also in attendance, the Australian squad is loaded for this World Championship Road Race.
As a reduced sprint does seem to be the most probable outcome, Peter Sagan is among the top favorites as well; no rider is as fast to the line after a hilly day as the 24-year-old Slovakian. When the Ponferrada Worlds circuit was revealed, Sagan was the first name that came to mind for many observers. However, form is a major question mark for the talented young rider, who has done little to prove himself in shape since his Tour de France. He has expressed his own doubts about his form in the media recently as well. It is that uncertainty that keeps him from being the top favorite. If he manages to marshal his ability by the time this race kicks off, however, or if this is all nothing more than a clever strategy to deflect attention from himself, Sagan will be very difficult to beat. It will be hard for anyone else who sprints as well as Peter Sagan to stick with the pack all the way through the 254.8 hilly kilometers to the line. He’s also a master escape artist, should the opportunity present itself to get away from the bunch. He leads a small team of only three riders, but this profile, which is less friendly to attackers than last year’s, somewhat downplays the importance of squadmates who might help chase down late moves.
Spain’s Alejandro Valverde will need for this to be a selective race if he wants a chance at taking the rainbow jersey, but several climber-oriented teams are here to help with that ambition. Valverde has a terrific kick and he should be in the mix if this comes down to a reduced sprint. In front of a Spanish crowd and aware that this may be his last chance at the World Championship, he’ll be highly motivated to perform. Daniel Moreno is another fast finisher for the home country, while Joaquim Rodriguez and Luis Leon Sanchez present yet more options to make this an aggressive event.
Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski was among the Top 5 in all three of this year’s Ardennes Classics, showing his immense strength in the group finishes that come after long, bumpy days, but he’s also an elite solo artist and strong descender who could try to get away from the lead group in the final few kilometers if still contains a few of the purer sprinter types. An excellent Tour of Britain showed that he’s back on good form after a rough patch in the middle of the year. Strong seasons from a number of Polish riders guaranteed a large team for Poland in this race (which isn’t always the case), and that will boost Kwiatkowski’s chances.
Among the likeliest late escapees is Fabian Cancellara, who eschewed the Worlds ITT this year to focus solely on this opportunity to take the rainbow jersey. No rider on this startlist can get clear of a charging peloton quite like Spartacus, and a constantly improving finishing kick makes him all the more dangerous should he reach the line in a small group; he showed it when he won the 2014 Ronde in a high-speed four-man showdown. He was even 2nd in a bunch sprint finish in Milano-Sanremo this year, ahead of the likes of Mark Cavendish. After 250 kilometers, many riders will start to lose steam, but Cancellara is not as easily weakened by distance. That puts him among the very strongest favorites here, and while his best chance at winning seems to be an attempt at a late move, he’s a contender in any scenario. His descending abilities make him even more dangerous. Though only consisting of two other riders, his team has firepower: Michael Albasini has the climbing legs to make it over these inclines and a particularly impressive burst of speed at the end of a hilly parcours, making a very strong second.
Belgium has several cards to play for this circuit, and at least one of the squad’s many options should be in the mix for the podium. Greg Van Avermaet will almost certainly attempt to get clear alone or with a small group as the day nears its close, and with recent showings of good form, he is among the top favorites for victory at Worlds. He has had found it difficult so far in his career to turn near victories into actual wins on the biggest stages, but he has finished in the Top 7 in each his last four starts (with two victories), and should come into this race feeling confident. Former World Champions Philippe Gilbert and Tom Boonen haven’t shown quite the same strength recently as Van Avermaet, but both are specialists in selective one-day races. Sep Vanmarcke, though not as speedy at the line, is another strong rider after a tough day, and Jan Bakelants, Jelle Vanendert,and Tim Wellens are even further options.
Defending champion Rui Costa has a difficult task ahead of him. As an uphill specialist, Costa is not as well-suited to this parcours, which doesn’t have the gradients he’d prefer. Still, he’s a strong attacker with underrated punch, and he has a knack for being in the mix on a wide variety of profiles.
Rui Costa put in a strong performance against high-level competition in Montreal, his final WorldTour race in the rainbow jersey.
A repeat win won’t be easy, but Costa clearly has the form (he was runner-up in the GP Montreal) and plenty of motivation to prove that he has what it takes to continually contend for the rainbow jersey. Expect a strong performance from him.
France has a few strong options that seem to be flying a bit under the radar at the moment. Tony Gallopin has the skillset to thrive on the Ponferrada circuit: he is a quality sprinter (he charged to 3rd in the bunch finish in Montreal) and a particularly dangerous attacker on the hilly profiles. He took his two biggest career wins (San Sebastián in 2013 and a stage in the Tour de France) by soloing out of a small group and staying clear to the line. His versatility will allow him to be in the mix in several different race scenarios. Sylvain Chavanel is another rider who could feature in several different ways; he won in Plouay last month after escaping from a pack of sprinting hopefuls, and that may be exactly what’s on his mind here. Romain Bardet could also get involved, having shown some surprising ability in one-day races this year (in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and in Montreal). Nacer Bouhanni makes the start as well, hoping for a bigger bunch gallop. This circuit will greatly test his climbing legs, and he does not have much of a resume in races this long, but he showed improved uphill ability in the recent Vuelta, and it has increased his confidence in his ability to be involved in this sort of race. It would be a surprise if he held on all the way to the finish, but he’s among the fastest sprinters in this race, making him a favorite if he can hang on.
Perhaps a bit more likely to hang on for a potential sprint is Germany’s John Degenkolb, who has landed his biggest results by surviving difficult days to thrive in reduced sprints. His victories in Paris-Tours, the Vattenfall Cyclassics, and Gent-Wevelgem and most of his nine career Vuelta stage wins, as well as his runner-up performance in this year’s Paris-Roubaix, have come that way. His finishing kick has been stronger this year than it has ever been before, though he may have given up just a little bit of his uphill ability getting there; more worrisome for his chances, however, is his recent bout with illness. Degenkolb was recently hospitalized while fighting an infection that he picked up in the Vuelta, and that trip certainly wasn’t a welcome addition to his training schedule. If the form is there, he could contend for the victory, but it’s hard to say how strong he is right now. Andre Greipel makes the start as well, though he’s a long shot to make it to the finish; Simon Geschke, a specialist on the hilly days, may be a better bet to survive. Tony Martin is another elite rider who can’t be counted out when a profile offers opportunities for solo moves.
Alexander Kristoff will share John Degenkolb’s ambition of surviving the tough day for a sprint finish. He wasn’t much of a factor in Quebec or Montreal recently, but the Ponferrada circuit should be a bit less climber-oriented, and Kristoff also thrives on the very long days in the saddle, and the Worlds parcours always is a long one. He won’t have an easy time of holding out for a bunch finish, but it’s hard to imagine anyone beating him if he’s there. Edvald Boasson Hagen and Lars Petter Nordhaug are both strong alternatives on this profile.
Tom Dumoulin was a top performer in Canada, 2nd in Quebec and 6th in Montreal. He has carried top-notch form into Ponferrada, and it helped him reach the podium in the ITT championship, where he was not far behind Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins. Dumoulin would prefer a course more favorable to attackers, but he is an excellent solo artist who will have a better chance than most at pulling off a late strike, and he has an ever-improving finishing sprint to help him outgun a select group should it come to that.
Tom Dumoulin has had a very strong September, with podium performances in Quebec and in the World Championship ITT. His soloing ability makes him a threat in the Road Race.
Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter is well-suited to this parcours, and will be another strong option. Garmin was riding for Ramunas Navardauskas in Canada, but Slagter was 11th in Quebec and 12th in Montreal, suggesting that the form is there right now. With versatile Bauke Mollema, Wout Poels, Wilco Kelderman, and Pieter Weening all making the start as well, the Dutch squad may not have any one rider among the top few favorites for the race, but there is a lot of firepower here for a strong outside bid at the rainbow stripes.
The aforementioned Ramunas Navardauskas makes for a quality dark horse contender in this race, with just the right blend of climbing legs, attacking ability, and finishing kick to be dangerous on this profile. Ireland’s Dan Martin leads a small but capable squad, and the winner of last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege has both the form (which he proved with his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Vuelta) and the skillset to make a challenge here. The Italian squad seems to be rallying behind Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali, who will hope to make an escape on the late climbs and then hold out on the last descent and final flat stretch; it may seem strange to mention the Italian team this late in the preview, but it’s hard to see their climber-centric squad selection as anything other than odd on this parcours. Daniele Bennati and Sonny Colbrelli could feature in a reduced sprint, while Alessandro De Marchi and Giovanni Visconti will be alternative options for a solo move. Unsurprisingly, Colombia also has a squad that will push for a very selective race, though it’s hard to name any one rider as their best hope; when at their best, Julian Arredondo, Carlos Betancur, and Rigoberto Uran all have the skillsets for this parcours, but none of them came out of the Vuelta on a particularly positive note. Zdenek Stybar of the Czech Republic, Denmark’s Matti Breschel, South Africa’s Daryl Impey, Russia’s Alexandr Kolobnev and Great Britain’s Ben Swift and Geraint Thomas are others on the list of potential protagonists on this parcours.
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Winner: Simon Gerrans Podium: Peter Sagan, Fabian Cancellara Other Top Contenders: Alejandro Valverde, Michal Kwiatkowski, Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff, Rui Costa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of the battle for the rainbow jersey! And stay tuned for post-race analysis and, of course, the preview of the season’s final Monument Classic, Il Lombardia.
Most major time trials take place in the middle of stage races, when riders have already put a lot of mileage into their legs and may be facing more in the days that follow. The Worlds ITT, however, takes away those complicating factors and allows the chrono specialists to face a standalone challenge. The time trial is often known as the “race of truth,” and it’s hard to imagine a more honest indicator of talent against the clock than this yearly battle for the rainbow stripes.
The Route
47.1 kilometers in total, the men’s elite time trial parcours begins with a long stretch of mostly flat roads, on which the riders will be able to hit very high speeds. Then, around 15 kilometers before the finish line, the road kicks upward for the first of the day’s two main climbs. It’s an irregular ascent, but at no point is it overly challenging. The descent that follows, however, is a difficult one. At around the 40 kilometer mark the road kicks upward again for a shorter but steeper climb. Then comes a speedy descent and a flat final few kilometers.
The 2013 route was considerably longer (57.9 kilometers instead of 47.1), but this year’s edition does include a few uphill tests that, while not overly demanding, could make a difference in the day’s outcome.
The Contenders
Defending champion Tony Martin is the heavy favorite here. It would be a surprise if anyone were to take the victory ahead of the German, who is on the hunt for his fourth consecutive title. The late bumps shouldn’t trouble him too much, and he’s an expert bike handler for the downhill stretches on the route. He may be just a bit off his best form right now, but his Vuelta ITT victory was evidence enough that he is in good shape, and that may be all he needs. He was 46 seconds ahead of the runner-up in 2013, and has been dominant once again this year.
Martin’s biggest challenge is likely to come from the aforementioned 2013 runner-up, Bradley Wiggins. Wiggins has been enigmatic on the road this year; he occasionally flashed his brilliant ability (winning chronos in the Tour of California and the Tour of Britain, along with his own National Championship ITT), but on the whole he simply didn’t ride in all that many races in 2014. He appears to be riding well right now, and he should be able to handle the late climbs better than most of the time trialing specialists in Ponferrada. It is harder than ever to predict which races Bradley Wiggins is motivated to contest these days, but with a chance to make a statement in the twilight of his career on the road, I expect him to go full gas here.
Tom Dumoulin of the Netherlands racked up an amazing string of 2nd place finishes this year. He’s one of the world’s best in the time trial, but he unfortuantely had a great deal of scheduling overlap with the rainbow jersey wearer in 2014, and that led to countless runner-up rides. Still, he is in good shape right now and he will be eager for one last shot at victory over Tony Martin. This a nice enough parcours for Dumoulin, who is a capable climber. He has an excellent opportunity to get onto the podium, especially with last year’s 3rd place finisher Fabian Cancellara skipping the Worlds ITT this year.
Vasil Kiryienka has had some excellent results late this season and he can handle this profile. He may spend most of his time playing second fiddle to Sky’s GC stars, but he’ll be a dangerous outsider here. Adriano Malori of Italy is a massive time trial talent on sharp form, but the final two climbs will make it difficult for him to challenge for victory. Still, expect a strong performance. Rohan Dennis took some time to round into form during the Vuelta but he seems to be getting there now, and this is a nice parcours for him. Tobias Ludviggson is a rider whose talent exceeds his results this season; he has had trouble avoiding misfortune (rain and crashes, specifically) in many of his chronos in 2014, but if he can stay out of trouble he has a lot of power.
Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Alex Dowsett, Kristof Vandewalle, Jesse Sergent, Sylvain Chavanel, Jonathan Castroviejo, and Jan Barta are others on the list of fringe contenders who will hope to be in the mix.
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Winner: Tony Martin Podium: Bradley Wiggins, Tom Dumoulin Other Top Contenders: Vasil Kiryienka, Tobias Ludviggson, Adriano Malori, Rohan Dennis, Tejay van Garderen, Rasmus Quaade, Kristof Vandewalle
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis during the race, and stay tuned for the Worlds Road Race preview, coming very soon!
