The Road World Championships get underway with the team time trial. If recent editions are any indication, the TTT should be a thrilling way to kick off a big week of cycling: the margin of victory for the men’s TTT in 2012 was only 3 seconds, and in 2013 things were even closer: Omega Pharma – Quick-Step beat out Orica-GreenEdge by just 1 second for the title.
The Route
The 2014 parcours is a bit more demanding than the profile faced by the TTT squads in 2013. 57.1 kilometers in length, it is mostly flat, but it does have a few bumps along the way. A string of ups and downs lead into the short but steep Alto Pieros at around the halfway point, and a high-speed downhill follows. With roughly 15 kilometers to go there is another uphill drag that starts at a low gradient and then kicks up a bit towards the end of the ascent crested with roughly 3 kilometers to go, after which comes a fast descent and then a flat finish.
Both the first and the final few kilometers are beset with twists, turns, and roundabouts, but most of the long journey in between is on wider roads without too many technicalities, which will allow the bigger engines to really get going in the middle of the route.
The Contenders
Last year’s two top finishers figure to feature prominently again. OPQS comes in as a slight favorite, though the team makeup has changed considerably since they last made a run at Worlds. Tony Martin still leads the way with a very talented Michal Kwiatkowski also returning. The impressive Kristof Vandewalle (now riding for Trek) is among those who won’t make a repeat bid for OPQS, but new additions like Niki Terpstra should help pick up the slack. Martin and Kwiatkowski will handle the scattered climbs and the technical stretches better than most time trial specialists in attendance, boosting the team’s chances. Orica-GreenEdge should put up a serious fight, however. Veteran Svein Tuft has continued to lead the OGE TTT squad to successes this year (they won the opening team time trial in the Giro d’Italia) and younger talents like Michael Hepburn and fast-rising Damien Howson make for a very solid group of specialists. They may not have any individual riders who currently qualify as stars in the time trial right now, but the team discipline is about more than raw power, and Orica-GreenEdge takes the TTT very seriously. They will have one of the most cohesive units on the course.
Trek should put in a strong challenge, with Fabian Cancellara, the aforementioned Kristof Vandewalle, and a sharp Jesse Sergent making the start. Their Vuelta performance was underwhelming, but Spartacus should be in much better form with the World Championship Road Race rapidly approaching.
BMC is without Taylor Phinney, but newcomer Rohan Dennis and a very strong Silvan Diller should complement Tejay van Garderen and company nicely. I think they’re more likely to deliver a performance along the lines of their Giro TTT (where they were 3rd) than their Vuelta TTT (where they only managed 9th).
Team Sky has underperformed in just about every major TTT they’ve undertaken in 2014, but the collection of talents they bring to Ponferrada can’t be ignored. With Bradley Wiggins leading and Geraint Thomas, Dario Cataldo, and an in-form Vasil Kiryienka also on the team, Sky will have a fighting chance at victory. They were 3rd in 2013, the only team within half a minute of the two leaders.
Movistar, with Ion Izagirre, Adriano Malori, and Alex Dowsett, should be in the mix. Astana hasn’t landed many big team time trial results in 2014, but they have a strong group of chrono specialists here. Giant-Shimano could surprise, with several very talented young time trialists in their unit, among them Tom Dumoulin, Chad Haga, and Tobias Ludviggson.
VeloHuman Top 3 Favorites
Winner: Omega Pharma – Quick-Step Podium: Orica-GreenEdge, Trek Factory Racing
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live race analysis, and stay tuned for previews of the ITT and Road Race World Championships.
The Vuelta is always an important opportunity for riders who have missed out on results in the early part of the season to take one final shot at Grand Tour success, but a particularly crash-heavy 2014 made this year’s Vuelta startlist one of the strongest in years. The late-season showdown, with many of the sport’s top talents in the mix, was a nice platform for several riders to make strong statements to close out the Grand Tour calendar.
Big Names Deliver in GC Battle
Alberto Contador has now ridden in the Vuelta three times in his career, and he’s won the overall victory each time. That is a stunning achievement in and of itself; this year’s victory is an especially impressive feat given the powerhouse startlist. Contador was untouchable in the mountains, and he was very good in the time trial as well. He also rode a tactically brilliant race; he had the weakest team of any of the top GC contenders, and it didn’t seem to matter at all. He followed the attacks he needed to follow, and didn’t waste energy with others. He was robbed of a chance to prove his strength at the 2014 Tour de France, but this ride at the 2014 Vuelta will be a warning to his rivals that he’ll be very hard to beat in the 2015 Tour.
Had Chris Froome continued throughout the race in the same shape that saw him lose a chunk of time to even Alejandro Valverde in a long, mostly flat time trial, it might have been cause for concern, but he ended the race very, very strong. It’s a shame it took him some time to get back to his best (it would have made for a better, more competitive race if he were able to put in the sort of time trial we know he’s capable of) but his main goal in starting this race was to ride well in a Grand Tour before the season’s end, and he absolutely did that. He may not have been able to touch Contador after falling behind early, but he should still come out of the race with confidence for 2015.
Nairo Quintana‘s abandonment following a bad crash took some excitement out of the race. Hopefully he will recover quickly for 2015; the strength he showed early this season will make him a top favorite in the Tour next year. Teammate Alejandro Valverde wasn’t able to threaten for the Vuelta overall once Contador took control, but that can’t take away from the amazing year he’s had. Among his many huge successes so far are victories in La Fleche Wallonne and San Sebastian, a Vuelta stage win, and Top 5s in the Amstel Gold Race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta overall. His big ride in Spain came after a difficult Tour, to boot; it’s not easy to land a podium in the Vuelta on the heels of a three-week race finished less than a month before the start.
Joaquim Rodriguez, in 4th, never managed to contend, and he didn’t win a stage despite the presence of a very strong team. It was a disappointing ride given the expectations going in. His inability to match rival Valverde will be most frustrating for him. After dropping out of the Giro, Purito rode the Tour as a means of preparing for this race; it was an odd choice, and I’m not sure it was the right one.
Fabio Aru, on the other hand, should be thrilled with a 5th place result. He’s only 24, and he has now landed two Grand Tour Top 5s and three Grand Tour stage wins in the same year! It’s not easy to perform so well across two three-week races in one season, especially not as his young age. He made his “arrival” at the Giro, but I find his Vuelta a España, against so much top-tier talent and coming with plenty of race mileage in his legs already this year, just as impressive.
I’m not sure what Dan Martin‘s Grand Tour racing future holds because he clearly prefers the shorter events, but I’ve been saying for a while now that the has the talent to put in a Top 10 in a three-week event, if he could only avoid crashing or getting sick. It was good to see him finally deliver (7th overall), and against an elite startlist too. Warren Barguil, in 8th, also took a big career step. We knew he could climb, but could he perform at a high level across three weeks? It seems the answer is yes. He’s only 22.
Damiano Caruso was one of the biggest surprises of the race. He had never had a Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour stage race coming into the Vuelta a España, and he picked up his first in a Grand Tour. BMC got a good one for next year.
Belkin will wish they’d gotten a bigger GC result out of this Vuelta, but they should be pleased with the performance of Robert Gesink, who was on track to land well inside the GC Top 10 before leaving the race for personal reasons. After a very tough start to the year and a long break spent recovering from a heart problem, that’s a very encouraging sign for Gesink.
A Few Thoughts on the Stagehunters
John Degenkolb dominated the sprints of the 2012 Vuelta, and his 2014 return to the race was a triumphant one. His four stage wins were impressive, especially the victory on Stage 5 over the very speedy Nacer Bouhanni. Degenkolb’s Points Classification victory may be even more impressive: it’s not easy for a sprinter to win the points jersey in the Vuelta, especially when versatile Alejandro Valverde is on the startlist, but Degenkolb was not to be denied once it became clear that green was within his reach. He missed out on a few opportunities at this year’s Tour due to an early injury in that race, but with the sort of speed he showed in Spain, he should be on track for plenty more success in the very near future, with the upcoming World Championships as a major target and the 2015 classics season and Tour beyond.
Alessandro De Marchi was another stagehunter who found success, picking up his first Grand Tour stage win after coming close several times in the past. He is emerging as one of the top breakaway talents in the peloton, showing a lot of strength when riding uphill on his own. He was King of the Mountains at the Dauphine in June, and riding off the front like he has been this year, a Grand Tour KOM jersey could be in his future.
Jasper Stuyven, who finished with six stage Top 10s, may not have come particularly close to any victories, but his consistent presence near the front on a variety of profiles bodes well for the future: he’s only 22. Yet another rising young talent for Belgium, who just announced a Worlds squad loaded with firepower.
Speaking of Worlds, it’s right around the corner! Stay tuned for VeloHuman previews of the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.
With the conclusion of the GP Montreal, the WorldTour’s yearly visit to Canada is now complete. With the World Championships around the corner, today’s race offered plenty of takeaways. Starting with the obvious, Simon Gerrans dominated the Canadian WorldTour double. Before 2014, no rider had ever won both races in the same season. Gerrans did it this week, and he made it look easy. It helped that his team rode a perfect race. They did some pace-setting early, but they let other teams do the lion’s share of the work to bring back the breakaway. Then, in the final few kilometers, Orica-GreenEdge hit the front and took control. They had plenty of riders left in the finale to put Gerrans into perfect position for the sprint, and he was so far ahead of anyone else on the finishing straight that he had both hands in the air well before the line.
Mathew Hayman spent a lot of time early in the day at the front of the peloton, driving the pace the keep the break in check.
At age 34, Gerrans seems to have just hit his prime, taking his third one-day WorldTour win this year (he also won a stage and the overall at the Tour Down Under in January). He’ll be among the top favorites for the upcoming World Champs, where a hilly circuit with a flat finish could very likely come down to a reduced sprint; current World Champion Rui Costa voiced this very sentiment in the post-race press conference.
Speaking of Costa, he said after the race that he was happy with the result. He was unable to get clear of the pack in the last few kilometers, but still had enough energy to take 2nd place in the sprint. On the one hand, the number of 2nd place finishes Costa has racked up in the rainbow jersey has to be frustrating. On the other hand, his ability to pick up so many top results is still very impressive, and after having a quiet few weeks after his Tour de France exit, he showed in Montreal that he’s returning to his best ahead of what will be a very difficult Worlds defense.
Tony Gallopin was a decent 9th place in Quebec, and a much stronger 3rd (he was inches away from 2nd, with Costa just barely ahead of him at the line) in Montreal. With Gallopin and Tim Wellens performing so well recently, Lotto Belisol has to be pleased that they’ve gone from a team essentially built to drag Andre Greipel to the line in the pure sprints to a team that can mix it up with the very best on the hilly profiles.
I wasn’t sure how to gauge the chances of Ramunas Navardauskas coming into Montreal, where the circuit is harder than that in Quebec. He proved to be quite capable on the climbs, and sprinted to 4th place. It’s been a career year for Navardauskas. He’s proved amazingly versatile, landing big results on all sorts of profiles. I said after Quebec that he’ll be a rider to watch at Worlds in two weeks, and today in Montreal he made another loud statement.
Romain Bardet, in 5th, notched his second Top 10 in a WorldTour one-day race this year, the other coming in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He’s still just 23, and he outgunned Greg Van Avermaet, Enrico Gasparotto, and Bauke Mollema, among others, in the finishing sprint here. He may be known for his stage-racing skills, but it will be hard to overlook him in the Ardennes Classics in 2015 with results like this.
Tom Dumoulin only managed to follow up his runner-up performance in Quebec with a 6th place in Montreal, but that’s still a big ride for the Dutchman, who will continue to develop. Greg Van Avermaet probably won’t feel particularly satisfied with 7th, but he did outperform every other Belgian in Montreal, just as he did in Quebec. With Worlds team selection around the corner, that’s huge. Tom-Jelte Slagter put in another decent ride ahead of the World Championships, landing 12th, not bad with Narvardauskas getting the backing in the sprint. In 13th place and among some very impressive company, 22-year-old Petr Vakoc was the best-placed rider for OPQS. They had a strong team here in Montreal, so they probably won’t be satisfied with that, but Vakoc should take confidence from the result. He won a stage in and, very impressively, rode well enough for the remainder of the Tour de Pologne to take 10th overall, and this is another showing of ability from the up-and-coming Czech rider.
Among those who underwhelmed today was Alexander Kristoff, though I don’t find his inability to land a result here particularly surprising. Once the pace picked up in the final few laps, he struggled mightily to hold on. He was dropped with plenty of time left to go in the race, and rolled in over 8 minutes down. I don’t think it means all that much (Montreal’s climbs are tough), but it is at the very least a missed opportunity for Kristoff to prove that he can handle the tougher vertical challenges with Worlds around the corner.
Said World Championship Road Race is now just two weeks away. The ITT is only ten days away! VH will be previewing the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, so stay tuned.
Stage 21: Santiago de Compostela › Santiago de Compostela. El Final del Camino – 9.7 km
The Vuelta’s final stage is here! After Alberto Contador’s decisive mountain victory in the penultimate day of the race, the short individual time trial up next won’t have much of an impact on the General Classification, but stage honors are still on offer, and there are plenty of riders who will like their chances to close out the last Grand Tour of the year with a win.
The 9.7 kilometer route begins with a flat section and then a short downhill stretch, followed by a long section of slight ups and and downs (it averages more up than down) that evens out with about 3 kilometers to go. Then comes a quick descent and then the flattish (there is a very, very minor gradient) final 1.5 kilometers. Without much in the way of topography, and at less than 10 kilometers, it’s going to be an extremely fast stage. It may rain, and it could be a bit windy, both factors that could definitely shake things up in a chrono like this.
The Stage 21 profile suits the real specialists in the time trialing discipline, but a 9.7 kilometer ITT after three weeks of tough racing is different from a short ITT to start a Grand Tour. Everyone will be feeling the effects of the long jorney through Spain. That could make for some interesting results in the Vuelta’s last day.
One star time trialist who should still be feeling good even after all the challenging climbs of the race is Sky’s Chris Froome. Barring a bad crash by Contador, Froome won’t have any chance of taking enough time back from the race leader to move up from 2nd place, but he’ll still want to put in a big ride and maybe come away from the race with a stage win. He has looked stellar in the past few days (a significant improvement over the way he looked in the Vuelta’s first time trial), and this will be a nice chance to end the Vuelta on a high note. He won a similar short chrono back in June in the Dauphine. Starting late in the day, he’ll be able to gauge his efforts against those who have gone before, and he’ll also probably face a bit less wind.
Movistar’s Adriano Malori was underwhelming in the Vuelta’s first race against the clock, but this short, flat test suits him perfectly. He took his first WorldTour win in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March on a very similar profile, beating out Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in the process. He should contend for the win here.
Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle is another chrono specialist who should be in the mix. He’s been hard to beat against the clock recently. He took a win over Malori in the closing time trial stage of the Tour de Pologne last month. Teammate Jesse Sergeant, very strong in flat ITTs, will be another top contender on Stage 21.
Garmin-Sharp’s Rohan Dennis hasn’t had as much of an impact on this Vuelta as maybe he would have hoped coming in, but he’s an elite time trialist who will love this chance to land a result before the race is over.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador can’t be ruled out, having come in a close 2nd to Froome in the short ITT that opened the Dauphine. Despite his comfortable hold on the red jersey, he’s not one to pass up a chance at victory.
Michael Matthews could surprise some people: he’s quite effective against the clock in a shorter chorno. Maciej Bodnar, Daniele Bennati, Alexey Lutsenko, Manuel Quinziato, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Cameron Meyer, and Patrick Gretsch are others who could contend for stage honors here.
As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Vuelta a España. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading! Stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VH Facebook page, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s preview of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, the last WorldTour race before the World Championships in Spain. VH will of course be previewing the main events of Worlds as well, so stay tuned.
The first of the Canadian WorldTour events is in the books, and now it’s on to Montreal. Another urban circuit race, the GP Montreal shares a hilly profile with its sister race in Quebec and, often, many of the same riders who shine in one do well in the other, but there are differences in the parcours, and no one has ever won both races in the same season. Plenty of names stand out as favorites, but the startlist is loaded with talent and the route will make a few different race scenarios possible. In short, the 2014 Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal should be an exciting race, and it won’t be easy to predict the outcome.
The Route
The 12.1 kilometer circuit (17 laps of which will make for a total race distance of 205.7 kilometers) starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Montreal’s namesake Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started. There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most challenging climb comes almost immediately, the 1.8 kilometer, 8% average gradient Côte Camillien-Houde. Then comes a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average but with a steep 11% stretch of 200 meters along the way. After another descent, things even out for a a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the line. That final run-in is a 560 meter, 4% climb.
The Montreal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Quebec. The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely launch attacks that will be a lot harder to marshal than those that were swallowed up without ever being much of a real threat in Quebec. The finish in Montreal, however, is a lot easier, meaning that sprinting legs will be important if a small group of riders come to the finish together; alternatively, a strong enough solo artist could stay clear after an attack on the circuit’s difficult early slopes.
The Contenders
A one-day race parcours favoring strong climbers with explosive finishes would bring Simon Gerrans to mind even if he hadn’t just taken the win in Quebec. With the form he just showed, he’ll be a top favorite for more success here. His rivals will be watching him closely, but Gerrans told VeloHuman today that he doesn’t feel any pressure coming in as a favorite after his win, and that instead the pressure is on the other teams to get something of the race. He also said that he feels the Montreal parcours might suit OGE even better than Quebec did.
Simon Gerrans on the Montreal parcours and the riders his team will be keeping an eye on
Gerrans has the uphill ability to get over the climbs and the sprint to beat almost anyone in the race. The biggest challenge for OGE will be the hard-to-control profile; Gerrans is capable of getting into moves or even making them on his own, but lately he has preferrred holding out for the sprint in these sorts of races, and Orica-GreenEdge will have their hands full trying to keep this together if that’s how they decide to play this. They have a very strong team here, though, and hilly profile specialists like Michael Albasini, Jens Keukeleire, Pieter Weening, and Daryl Impey (on top-notch form right now) will be great allies or, potentially, dangerous alternatives.
Rui Costa was unable to get clear of the pack in Quebec and then had to cut his sprint short after Arthur Vichot went down right in front of him. Nevertheless, he was at the front as the race neared its climax. Montreal will give him a better opportunity to get aggressive. Few can launch an escape on a hilly profile as well as Rui Costa, and he has the burst of speed to win a sprint battle if need be. He’s never been outside the Top 10 in his Montreal-racing career, and he should continue to perform at a high level here. This will be an excellent opportunity for Costa to prove his form before his Worlds defense.
Quebec runner-up Tom Dumoulin should also love this attacker-friendly profile. He’s the best soloist in the startlist, and if he can get clear of the bunch, his rivals will have a hard time tracking him down. Teammate Simon Geschke, always handy in the sprints that come after hilly days, is a great alternative for Giant-Shimano.
BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was hoping for a better result in Quebec, but Montreal will provide him with another chance at success. Van Avermaet told VH before the GP Quebec that he felt that, of the two, it suited him better. However, with the quality of punchy, fast finishers here in Canada, Montreal’s profile, more likely to spring the sort of successful long-range attacks for which Van Avermaet is known, should be good for him as well. He was 4th here last year. Don’t rule out a big ride from teammate Tejay van Garderen either; the American GC rider put in a strong dig on the final climb in Quebec, showing that he’s interested in getting involved in these races.
Bauke Mollema was the best-placed of the GC-style riders in Quebec (landing 10th), and Montreal should suit him better if he and some of the other top climbers can make for a selective race. He also packs a great sprint, and if the ascending specialists can drop the less uphill-inclined, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Sep Vanmarcke, 7th in Quebec, may find Montreal a bit hilly, but he is climbing very well this year and with his Worlds role still undetermined, he will likely be going full gas here.
Garmin-Sharp has a lot of firepower in Canada. Ramunas Navardauskas showed off his ever-widening array of skills with a strong uphill sprint to 3rd. The Montreal profile will really put him to the test, but Garmin-Sharp won’t panic if he struggles on the final few climbs: Tom-Jelte Slagter looked good in Quebec, finishing 11th, and this is an excellent race for him. Fabian Wegmann has put in strong performances here in the past as well.
Alexander Kristoff will be in for a real battle to stick with the pack if the pace is high in the final few trips up the Côte Camillien-Houde. If this does come down to a sprint, and if he has made it to the line with the lead group, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to pick up the win, as the finish is less challenging than the one in Quebec, where he only managed 21st place. Simon Spilak will again be a good second.
OPQS’s Gianni Meersman has great climbing legs (for a sprinter) and may be a bit more likely than Kristoff to stick with the peloton on the steep stuff. Having just taken 6th in Quebec, he’s showing good form right now, and he’ll be a top favorite if he’s there for a sprint. The team has options, though, with Jan Bakelants (10th in 2013) very well-suited to this sort of parcours, and with Zdenek Stybar, Julian Alaphillipe, and Matteo Trentin here as well, OPQS will undoubtedly be involved in the action.
Astana is another team bringing a versatile fast finisher and several puncheurs and climbers to be ready for any race scenario. Francesco Gavazzi will have a chance to be in the mix in a bunch sprint. Enrico Gasparotto sometimes disappears in races that would look to suit him, but having landed 8th in Quebec he looks good enough to contend on a Montreal parcours that should be very good for him. Jakob Fuglsang and Borut Bozic are other strong riders for the team.
Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin was 10th here in 2012, and he looked good in Quebec. Lotto has several great talents for this profile, with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens here too. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel could get involved if a larger group comes to the line together, while Michael Rogers can never be counted out in a race with plenty of opportunities for long-range attacks. Movistar has speedy JJ Lobato, JJ Rojas, and Fran Ventoso, but all-rounder Jesus Herrada also looks strong at the moment. AG2R’s climber-heavy squad should appreciate the tougher uphill challenges in Montreal; Jean-Christophe Peraud, Romain Bardet, and Christophe Riblon will have their chances to try to get away on the slopes. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck may be thinking the same thing. Team Sky was unable to make anything out of Quebec, with Geraint Thomas struggling on the climbs, but this profile doesn’t look bad for Thomas (if Friday’s performance was just a bad day) and Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Chris Sutton looks to be strong right now as well. Cannondale’s trio of Davide Formolo, Marco Marcato, and Moreno Moser showed form in Quebec, with the first two finishing in the Top 20, and the third spending a lot of time in the morning breakaway. Europcar has Bryan Coquard for a possible sprint, and punchy Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro to animate the climbs. Team Canada will likely back Ryan Anderson, who has shown good form in his past few races.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Simon Gerrans Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rui Costa Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Gianni Meersman, Tony Gallopin, Alexander Kristoff, Ramunas Navardauskas
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live coverage of the GP Montreal, and check back after the finish for post-race analysis!
Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares – 185.7 km
Following an Adam Hansen victory on a day without many GC implications, Stage 20, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a Espana, is here. The parcours should make for quite a showdown. There are four categorized climbs on the profile, and a few more uncategorized challenges, and the constant barrage of ascents will be an uncomfortable experience for a peloton that has been racing for three weeks. The final 32 kilometers are particularly difficult. The Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas is 9.7 kilometers long at an average of 6.7%; just the sort of test to wear out the legs before the vicious final climb of the 2014 Vuelta. The Puerto de Ancares is a monstrous challenge, 12.7 km at 8.7%. Several stretches are significantly steeper (one such stretch, at 12%, comes in the last 2 km), and there aren’t many easy sections to offer respite. The last mountain stage of the last Grand Tour of the year would likely see aggressive riding regardless, but this final climb practically guarantees that the attacks will fly.
The up-and-down second half will make it hard for the peloton to control the race, but as this is the last opportunity for the uphill specialists to shake up the General Classification, the GC men aren’t likely to hold back when the road goes up, which will make it hard for anyone up the road to stay clear. One thing is for certain: it will take an elite pair of climbing legs to win on this stage.
Several very steep sections on the final climb will favor the ultra-lightweight climber types, and few of them are as in-shape right now as race leader Alberto Contador. He’ll be able to follow the attacks, rather than make them, and he’s already shown how dangerous that makes him. His rivals will certainly throw everything they have at him, but when it’s mattered most in this race, Contador has not shown much weakness on the climbs.
Chris Froome has gotten much stronger over the course of this Vuelta, and he’s not going to let this chance to move up the leaderboard get away without a fight. The profile may look to suit some of his rivals a bit better, but Froome has looked strong enough these past few days that it may not matter. Expect to see him attempt a big attack on Stage 20 to try to open up a sizable gap to the rest of the GC contenders.
Joaquim Rodriguez should appreciate the steep finish. He’s been just a bit less strong on the climbs than he might have hoped coming into the Vuelta, but he’ll still have an opportunity to pick up the stage win here. He’s far enough back on the General Classification now that he may get a little bit of breathing room for Contador and Froome if he tries something.
Alejandro Valverde probably won’t get any space to attempt a move, but he’s still a danger. He seems content to hold wheels and hope for sprints even on the climbs that suit him, and that aversion to major risks, while it has kept him from ever picking up any huge gaps to his GC rivals, does make him a constant danger for stage success.
Fabio Aru will have a great opportunity to add to his tally of stage wins with this steep finale; Contador and Co. have shown on multiple occasions that they won’t chase down his attacks, and that gives him even more of an edge than he already has thanks to his awesome uphill ability. Repeating what’s been said in most of the other mountain stage previews so far, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are others who look strong right now and who will probably have freedom to put in moves from the pack.
It’s always hard to predict potential breakaway protagonists, but at least this profile whittles down the list of realistic long-distance contenders to those with immense uphill talent. Ryder Hesjedal has been on excellent form in the Vuelta so far and this long day of climbing suits his one-time-Grand-Tour-winning skillset perfectly. Przemyslaw Niemiec is another rider with GC-style ability who should have a chance if he goes from afar; Damiano Cunego will be a strong card for Lampre-Merida to play as well. Alessandro De Marchi will love the constant up and down. Louis Meintjes has gotten stronger as this race has progressed, and he’ll have a nice opportunity if he can get into a move here on Stage 20. Romain Sicard, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Cadel Evans, and Mikel Nieve are others who might find success in a long-distance strike.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The final preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec post-race is already up, and the Montreal preview is coming soon!
