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Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec 2014 Post-race Impressions: Gerrans Lives up to Expectations, Dumoulin and Navardauskas Continue to Prove Themselves

The first half of the Canadian Grand Prix weekend is in the books, and with another race just two days away in Montreal and Worlds looming, today’s race in Quebec offers some important takeaways.

Pre-race favorite Simon Gerrans made the loudest statement, as if his 3rd place finish in the Vattenfall Cyclassics ahead of sprinting heavyweights like Mark Cavendish wasn’t already statement enough. He’s clearly on blazing form right now. In the post-race press conference, he stated that he’s not as strong as he was back in the Spring when he won Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he certainly seems to be strong enough. His sprint has only gotten better and better over the past few years, and that will help him Sunday in Montreal, and at the end of the month in Ponferrada. The fact that he had to overcome a late mechanical makes his win even more impressive. On the whole, Orica-GreenEdge rode a brilliant race, doing the work required to keep the early break on a tight leash, letting others take over when possible, and then positioning Gerrans perfectly for the finale. Landing a 4th place result as well (with a surging Daryl Impey) was an added bonus.

Orica-GreenEdge put in the work when necessary, but they didn’t tire themselves out too much. In the end, Simon Gerrans was positioned perfectly for the final climb.

Runner-up Tom Dumoulin and 3rd-place finisher Ramunas Navardauskas also made statements in this race, outgunning several top contenders on their way to podium finishes. Dumoulin was frustrated with yet another 2nd place, but he’s put on quite a show in 2014, with a lot of help from a very much improved finishing kick. Navardauskas has taken his sprint to the next level this year as well. He was in the mix in several bunch finishes in the Tour de France (he won a stage with a late move as well), he won the Points Classification in the Tour of Alberta, and here in Quebec he charged uphill to the line ahead with a lot of power, despite having spent time in a late breakaway attempt just a few minutes prior. His reputation as a feisty underdog is rapidly giving way to a reputation as a real contender (still feisty though) on the hilly profiles. He was actually 8th in the 2012 World Championship Road Race, and though Lithuania won’t have the team strength of Spain or Belgium, Rui Costa showed last year that a nine rider squad isn’t necessarily required to win a rainbow jersey.

Speaking of Rui Costa, we did not really get a chance to see just how strong he is right now with his Worlds defense around the corner: he was immediately behind Arthur Vichot when the FDJ rider crashed in the final moments of the Grand Prix, and he had to brake hard to stay upright. Still, Costa was lurking at the front of the race as the peloton neared the finish line, suggesting that he’s feeling strong. The GP Montreal, which he won in 2011, should be another opportunity for him to land a result.

Greg Van Avermaet will be disappointed with a 5th place finish, but it’s still a strong result and it certainly shouldn’t hurt his hopes of playing a big role in the Belgian Worlds squad. Likely Belgian Worlds squad teammate Sep Vanmarcke should be very happy with his 7th place result in his debut run here in Quebec. At 199.1 kilometers, the race is a bit shorter than the grueling spring classics that suit Vanmarcke so well, but he was in the mix at the finish anyway. His sprint and his climbing legs are getting better and better: he put them on display today with an uphill charge to the line. Gianni Meersman was the other Belgian in the Top 10, landing 6th. He was really the only rider who would generally be considered a “sprinter” to have success on the day. The gradient at the finish suited the punchier riders a bit better; Meersman should be pleased with the result.

The incline leading up at the start/finish line proved too much for Alexander Kristoff, who could only manage a 21st place. That shouldn’t be all that surprising; Kristoff can survive a tough day in the saddle, but sprinting up a long sustained gradient isn’t really his forte. It is a strength for Tom-Jelte Slagter, however, whose form was a question mark coming into the race, but an 11th place performance suggests that he’s getting back into shape for the last few races of the season. Montreal will be another good opportunity for him.

Stay tuned for more coverage of Canada’s big weekend of cycling. The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is now less than two days away!

-Dane Cash

September 12, 2014
Sep Vanmarcke Quietly Confident for GPs Québec and Montréal, Hopeful for Worlds Selection

Fresh off a stage win in the Tour of Alberta, Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke will line up for this weekend’s Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal hoping to continue his successful run in North America. He has never ridden the GP Québec or GP Montréal, but he does have an impressive résumé in plenty of other hilly one-day events that reward aggressive racing. VH sat down with Vanmarcke ahead of the GP Québec.

The Québec parcours makes for a hard-to-predict race, but Vanmarcke feels that he and his team are well-suited to the event. “I like it, it’s different from last year’s, which will make it easier to control the race. I don’t know if that’s good for me or bad,” he told VH. “But we’ll see; it’s a really hard last three or four kilometers. I think I can get really far but we have to see. It’s really important to be in position the last time on the climbs.”

Belkin will most likely look to Vanmarcke and Bauke Mollema (who packs an underrated sprint) as team leaders in Québec. Vanmarcke’s current form should be an asset; he feels good about his level of fitness right now, noting that this time of year tends to be a good one for him.

“I’ve always been good in March and April, in the past, especially in the end of March and the beginning of April. End of June I’m always good. Beginning of July is also good. And then halfway through September I’m back,” Vanmarcke said.

With Worlds participation still up in the air and a strong team history in these races to uphold, Vanmarcke has plenty of motivation to make his first WorldTour events in Canada worth the journey. The upcoming World Championships are definitely in the back of Vanmarkce’s mind, giving him even more inspiration to do well here–especially with so many other big-name Belgians on the startlist also hoping to prove themselves before the team selection is made.

“Both [races] are important and of course I want to do well. I think it’s important, not for me . . . but for other people to see a result and that I’m ready,” he explained.

Vanmarcke feels like the strong season he has had already, with big results in the Classics and a very recent victory in the Tour of Alberta, should make enough of a statement about his readiness for Worlds as it is. Still, the Belgian roster for Ponferrada’s World Championship week isn’t completely decided yet, and more success in Québec or Montréal wouldn’t hurt.

“Last week I was good everywhere . . . and I won. That’s something to show my condition I think. You don’t win if the condition is not good. But yeah, it will be better if I get a good result here,” he said.

The World Championship Road Race isn’t the only thing on Vanmarcke’s mind, however. He is riding with Igor Decraene, one of Belgium’s most promising young cyclists who died suddenly at the beginning of the month, in his thoughts.

“All week I was with him in my mind. I made that goal that I really wanted to win for him, because I was really frustrated that I couldn’t be there at the funeral. Especially when his brother asked me if I was going to go there, I felt really bad. I really wanted to try something. I’m happy I won,” Vanmarcke said.

Mentally, to get a better sense of his form, and emotionally, as a chance to dedicate a major success to Decraene, winning in Alberta was an important result for Vanmarcke. It also gave him an opportunity to enjoy more aggressive riding, which isn’t something he always has a chance to do.

“It’s always important to win. I don’t win a lot. Classics are really hard to win, but I’m always getting closer. Stage races are sometimes so controlled and everything is going for a sprint, and then it’s a really hard final where I’m not capable of showing myself. . . . If you do something that might be stupid in other races though, there [in Alberta] it can be really good. In Alberta I was attacking all the time, every day,” he explained. “It’s impossible for me in, say, the Eneco Tour to try to be in an early breakaway. In Alberta . . . it’s different. It’s different racing, just full gas racing and there I’m better.”

Vanmarcke is approaching this weekend’s races in Québec and Montréal with a quiet confidence; he is reluctant to make any predictions about where he’ll end up but he does expect to perform.

“It’s the first time I’m here so I”m a little bit afraid to put numbers on it, but I think the race suits me and my condition is good, so I want to be there in the final and then it’s hard to say. I want to fight for the best places,” he said.

One major challenge facing Vanmarcke, and everyone else lining up here, is the strength of the startlist and the unpredictable nature of the profiles of both races.

“In these races it’s really difficult [to name a favorite]. There are really a lot. It suits riders of Flanders Classics. It suits riders of Ardennes Classics. And also stage race guys are here. I think I’ll have a chance for winning if I’m good, but Rui Costa, a whole different rider, is also thinking the same. It’s a big group of riders that can win, I think. Maybe thirty,” he said.

Fellow Belgian Greg Van Avermaet, also likely to play a role in the nation’s World Championships squad, is certainly among those favorites, as are a few other top-notch Belgian talents. Many of them have raced here several times before. With recent signs of form giving him a positive outlook, though, Vanmarcke is as ready as he can hope to be to make his debut in the GPs Québec and Montréal. He’ll know very soon just how well these races suit him, and if he does manage to land a good result, with the strong season he’s already had, he’ll have to feel good about his chances for a featured role in Ponferrada.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Marc.

September 12, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Salvaterra do Miño › Cangas do Morrazo – 180.5 km

Following a Stage 18 with a pair of Cat. 2s as the only categorized climbs on the menu (Fabio Aru landed the victory) comes Stage 19, where two Cat. 2s are, again, the only categorized climbs on the profile. Their placement will make for a different sort of race, however. One comes right in the middle of the stage, and the other is crested with 15 kilometers still to go before the finish line. It could be a launching pad for attacks, but only a very strong move will have a chance of surviving all the way to the line. Following that final categorized ascent comes a fast descent, a few kilometers of flat, a slightly bumpy stretch, and then a flat final kilometer.

The parcours will be too much for the pure sprinters to handle, but probably not difficult enough to offer much of an opportunity for a GC shakeup. That makes Stage 19 an excellent opportunity for the morning breakaway to get the victory, which of course means that the list of potential protagonists for stage success is quite long and varied.

Orica-GreenEdge is likely to be the biggest challenge that anyone who gets up the road early will have to face. An impending mountain stage and the final time trial will temper any motivation the GC teams might have had to put in a lot of work, and that will give the early aggressors a big advantage. OGE, however, will want to control the race, in an effort to bring about a sprint and one final chance for Michael Matthews to pick up another win in this Vuelta a España. If the morning move is reeled in, the Australian squad will have probably played a major role in making the catch. The final climb is hard, but Matthews has amazing climbing legs right now, and if it is indeed the main bunch that is contesting this stage victory, he’ll be the top favorite for what will likely be a reduced sprint finish. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might have a chance of holding on in that scenario but it will be a lot to ask. Fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde and Wilco Kelderman may be more likely challengers for stage honors if the breakaway is swallowed up before the end of the day. Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, and Fabio Aru are others likely to be riding in (what’s left of) the main peloton who have the strength to survive the final climb and then get involved in a reduced sprint.

Philippe Gilbert is one of several versatile, punchy riders who could be looking to get into a long-distance move on Stage 19. If Gilbert sees an opportunity to break free from the pack early, he’ll be very dangerous in this sort of finale. Then again, he’ll be dangerous if he decides to stay with the pack as well. The ability to win in either scenario makes him a strong contender here.

Luis Leon Sanchez, who, unless he abandons the race for some reason, will win the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains classification, is another rider who could find success from afar here. He’s ridden well in the hunt for the KOM jersey so far, and he’d love to add a stage win to go with that achievement. Strong in a solo move or in a sprint, he’s well-suited to this profile.

So is Ryder Hesjedal, who already has a breakaway stage win in this Vuelta. Should he get into the day’s move, he’ll be a top contender with this very steep late challenge and with the great form he has shown in the past few days.

Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev has been out front in this race before, and, riding for a team that really should have won something in this race already, he’ll be motivated to put it on the line as opportunities for victories are running out. He’s very dangerous in a reduced sprint.

Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Lampre-Merida’s Filippo Pozzato and Damiano Cunego, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko and Mikel Landa, OGE’s Adam Yates, Trek’s Fabio Felline and Jasper Stuyven, OPQS’s Wout Poels, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, and Europcar’s Romain Sicard are others who could be in the mix should the morning breakaway go the distance on Stage 19.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Luis Leon Sanchez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 19, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec preview and an interview with one of the top favorites for that race are already up!

-Dane Cash

September 12, 2014
BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet on Racing the GPs Québec and Montréal with Worlds Looming: “It’s Really Important to be Good Here.”

Greg Van Avermaet is one of the top contenders for this weekend’s Canadian classics, having landed on the podium in Québec in back-to-back years and notching a 4th place in Montréal in the 2013 edition. He sat down with VeloHuman before the GP Québec to talk about his form, his expectations for both races, and his preparation for the upcoming World Championships.

After a strong showing in the Spring Classics, Van Avermaet took on the Tour de France and came close to victory on several occasions, landing two Top 3 performances and several other strong placings on the three-week journey through England and France. Following the Tour, he didn’t have a lot of time to recover from a tough first half of the season, but that didn’t seem to matter much. Van Avermaet’s post-Tour stretch got off to a great start: he landed a Top 10 in a very hilly Clásica de San Sebastián and then took his first win of the year in a stage in the Eneco Tour. That victory was a major morale boost with some big goals coming up.

“I was chasing victories for a pretty long time, and I was close a few times in the classics and the Tour,” he said. “That [Eneco Tour victory] was a big win for me and for the team. It gives me a lot of confidence for the next races.”

Van Avermaet acknowledges that it isn’t easy to stay in top racing shape throughout a long season that starts as early as February, but he is feeling confident about his form right now for the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal, and also for the upcoming World Championships.

“It’s a pretty long season so it’s pretty hard to focus and find a good balance between races and form,” he explained. “My main focus is always on classics, and this year I added the Tour, and my last goal is Worlds. It’s hard to find the form but I still feel pretty good . . . on a good level, performing pretty good.”

An in-form Greg Van Avermaet, along with talented all-rounders like Tejay van Garderen, make for a dangerous Team BMC in Canada this weekend. Van Avermaet is glad to have the support, and he’s hoping that the strong team will be able to force some selection on the hilly profile in Québec.

“Last year we had a pretty good race, we tried to make the race hard, to attack pretty early to make it difficult,” he noted. “For me it’s always better if it’s a hard race. It’s nice to see Tejay is interested in this kind of stuff. It’s nice to be the leader of this team but to also have him next to me to take a little bit of pressure off. Riding together, it’s fun because I helped him a little bit at the Tour and it’s nice that he’s coming to the races I like also.”

Having come so close to victory two years running, Van Avermaet doesn’t see that next step on the podium as being too far off.

“I’m pretty close to it [winning]. Last year I focused a little bit too much on Sagan for the sprint, and he didn’t sprint, it was a bit strange! Normally he wins the sprints,” Van Avermaet said. “The year before, I was out with Gerrans and he was just a bit stronger and faster. . . . Like last year, I feel like I have the chance to win; just a little bit of luck and the same legs as last year would be really good.”

Sagan isn’t in attendance in this year’s GP Québec, but there are plenty of dangerous contenders on the startlist. Van Avermaet has identified a few riders as top rivals, and the spectrum of skillsets on that list of potential protagonists is pretty wide, as one might expect from this typically unpredictable race.

“Simon [Gerrans] will be good. Vichot was good last year. Gallopin, Rui Costa. A few good guys that were here last year. Kristoff, if he can make it over the climb. Plenty of good riders,” Van Avermaet said. “For me, I kind of like it if the field is strong. It makes it easier to win the race when you’re not the only guy who has to make it [the race].”

Van Avermaet enjoys not only the competition here in Canada, but also the chance to fine tune his form ahead of the World Championships.

“I really like it here and it’s good for my characteristics. And good preparation also for Worlds. If you don’t do the Vuelta there’s only one way and it’s this one,” he said. “I like to be here. . . . It’s kind of like a small World Championships here, with the local laps, some climbing. It’s good to be here.”

The World Championships course in Ponferrada looks like it should suit Van Avermaet’s skillset, but he is one of a number of top riders from Belgium who could feature in the quest for the rainbow jersey. At the moment, Van Avermaet sees the composition of the team as still being very much an undecided matter.

“We have a good team, strong guys, but no one guy coming out who can say, ‘I’m the leader for this year.’ Normally it’s Boonen or Gilbert or a little bit of both, but this year they are not in the best shape,” Van Avermaet explained. “It’s hard to say right now who is going to be the leader, who is going to be protected. It’s a decision for the coach and it’s a hard decision. We will have a strong team like always, we have a lot of strength. . . . With Vanmarcke, Boonen, Gilbert, me, that’s already four and we only can take nine! So that’s lot of leaders. It will be hard to find a good combination to make a good team.”

The aforementioned Vanmarcke is here in Canada this weekend as well, along with other top Belgian riders like Jelle Vanendert, Tim Wellens, Jan Bakelants, Gianni Meersman, and Jurgen Roelandts. With so many potential Worlds teammates also making the start, Van Avermaet sees the GPs Québec and Montréal as an important opportunity to make a statement about his readiness to take on a featured role at Worlds.

“It’s pretty important for yourself and for your confidence so that you know that you’re in a good way and on a good level, but also you have to show the world that you’re ready to take a leadership spot in the national team, so it’s really important to be good here,” he said.

The startlists for both races are loaded with talent, but Van Avermaet certainly seems likely to put in those strong rides he’s hoping for this weekend. In his four Canadian Classics appearances so far, he’s never been outside the Top 15, and he isn’t lacking for motivation to pick up more results this year.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Brendan Ryan.

September 11, 2014
Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec 2014 Preview

While the Vuelta nears its conclusion in Spain, the WorldTour is also making its yearly visit to North America, where a pair of one-day races await. First up is the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec! 199.1 kilometers in total, the GP Quebec is a circuit race consisting of 11 laps that weave through the center of the city. As a top-level race and an important part of the Worlds buildup for many riders, it usually draws a very impressive group of participants (with those who focus on the hilly classics making up much of the roster) even with a Grand Tour taking place at the same time. This year is no exception!

VH will be at the event in-person, so stay tuned here and on Twitter (@VeloHuman) for plenty of exciting coverage (previews, interviews, and post-race analysis) of the GP Quebec and the GP Montreal.

The Route

The profile of the GP Quebec always makes for a very interesting race. None of the uphill challenges on the menu seem particularly difficult at first glance, but their location on the route guarantees that they will play a major role in determining the day’s winner, either providing a launching pad for late attacks or at least whittling down the pack on the way to a reduced uphill sprint.

The race starts (and finishes) in Old Quebec. The first 6.5 kilometers of the circuit are mostly flat as the road heads away from the city center, but then things change direction and there is a very fast descent down towards the water. As the road evens out, the pack will start heading back towards Old Quebec on the relatively flat Boulevard Champlain. Just after kilometer 14 of the circuit, things suddenly become difficult. The Côte de la Montaigne is only 375 meters in length, but at a 10% average grade, with almost half the climb at a whopping 13%, it will put plenty of pressure on the less uphill-oriented riders in the peloton. A fast descent follows, and then, as the route snakes through Quebec’s urban center, ultimately winding back towards the finish, the road kicks up in a series of climbs. The Côte de la Potasse is only 420 meters long, but the average gradient comes in at 9%. It is followed by a brief dip in the road and then another short, steep test, the Montée de la Fabrique, less than 200 meters in length but at 7%. Almost immediately after comes the long uphill drag to the line, the Montée du Fort climb, 1 kilometer at an average of 4%.

By themselves, the late climbs may not look like much, but in rapid succession and coming at the end of the race, they will bring the uphill chargers to the fore. A technical urban circuit, with a few steep downhills to boot, will provide even more inspiration for the aggressive riders to attempt to escape from the pack as the day nears its conclusion.

The Contenders

The parcours makes for a very open race, where a wide spectrum of riders, including climbing powerhouses and even sprinters, will have an opportunity to pick up a WorldTour-level victory at the end of a hilly (but not too hilly) day. The 2013 edition was a perfect illustration of this: Robert Gesink, not partcularly known for his one-day race performances, outgunned would-be World Champion Rui Costa and even Peter Sagan in an uphill sprint.

Gesink himself isn’t here, but the 2014 startlist, packed with hilly classics specialists, GC-style climbers, and a few of the peloton’s more versatile quick men, should set up another unpredictable race, as everyone will fight to survive the repeated uphill tests and then either launch a late move or hold out for a group finish on the Grande-Allée. A fair bit of punch and capable climbing legs will be necessities for anyone hoping to succeed in this race.

Orica-GreenEdge, loaded with talented riders for the hilly profiles, probably couldn’t draw up a race much more suited to them than the GP Quebec or its sister race in Montreal. They bring a powerful squad to Canada to contest both. Simon Gerrans won this race in 2012, and with his skillset, he’ll be among the most dangerous riders on this parcours. The two-time Monument winner is strong enough to escape from the pack on a tough profile if he sees an opportunity, and he is deadly in an uphill sprint. With a World Championship course that suits him just around the corner, he showed excellent form in the recent Vattenfall Cyclassics, sprinting to 3rd ahead of some very impressive names, and this race fits him even more perfectly. OGE will also have Michael Albasini, Daryl Impey (fresh off a Tour of Alberta win), Pieter Weening, and Jens Keukeleire as powerful cards to play. At least one member of this impressive team should feature prominently in the finale.

BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was 2nd in the 2012 edition of the GP Quebec, and 3rd in last year’s race. The Canadian GPs are a major target of his, and an urban circuit with the ups and downs and twists and turns to inspire late attacks is perfect for the aggressive Belgian. He showed great form in an uphill burst to a stage victory in the recent Eneco Tour, and no matter how this race plays out, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t be involved at the finish once again. Tejay van Garderen may not have much of a resume in the one-day races, but the climbing specialist (who has looked more explosive than ever this year) will make for a powerful teammate.

FDJ’s Arthur Vichot was runner-up to Robert Gesink in 2013, and just put in a top-notch display of form when he took 3rd overall in the GP Ouest France in Plouay. Vichot was very impressive in the hilly Paris-Nice in March, and he looks to be returning to a high level as the season nears its conclusion. He’s an explosive uphill charger who isn’t afraid to go solo, and he should be among the top contenders in the GP Quebec.

World Champion Rui Costa has landed back-to-back top 5s in Quebec, and with his World Champs defense approaching, he’s highly motivated to put his mark on this race again. He’ll need a challenging race to put some of the faster finishers under pressure, but there are a number of true climbing talents on this startlist (including teammate Chris Horner) that could help. Costa has a knack for success here and the ability to strike out for glory alone or outgun a small group at the line.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff is in attendance and probably has claim to the title of best sprinter on the startlist. Surviving the late uphill tests will not be easy for Kristoff, and the final drag doesn’t suit him that well, but he has continually delivered on very difficult profiles in 2014 and so he can’t be counted out with his elite finishing kick. Simon Spilak is a strong alternative.

Gianni Meersman is one of the most versatile sprinters here, and he’s on strong form at the moment. He might have a chance at staying with the pack all the way to the line. If not, OPQS is loaded with other options. Zdenek Stybar has the power to make a late break for victory or to hold the wheel of anyone who does and the finishing kick to outmatch a group at the finish. Julian Alaphilippe is very strong right now and just delivered a very impressive ride in the GP Ouest France, and Jan Bakelants (who loves the hilly days) and Matteo Trentin (deadly in a reduced sprint) are even more potential protagonists for the team.

Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter has finished in the Top 10 here on back-to-back occassions, and he’s had a career year. Form is a bit of a question mark, but he has the skills to thrive here if he’s in shape. Ramunas Navardauskas, Fabian Wegmann (an impressive 4th here in 2013), and sprinter Steele Von Hoff are other great options for the team. Europcar also has riders for multiple scenarios, with Bryan Coquard a potential contender in a sprint and Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro as options if the race is too selective for Coquard. Sky has their dangerous one-two punch of Geraint Thomas and Edvald Boasson Hagen, both of them capable of striking out for solo success or holding on for an uphill sprint. Giant-Shimano has an in-form Tom Dumoulin (who packs some underrated punch) and hilly classics specialist Simon Geschke (9th last year), and between them, a good result for the Dutch team seems likely. Lotto Belisol is stacked with talented riders for the parcours, with top-notch solo artist and very fast finisher Tony Gallopin in attendance and motivated, along with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens, who could make things very interesting on the late climb, and strong one-day racer Jurgen Roelandts. Belkin’s Bauke Mollema is obviously an elite climber, but his great finishing kick might surprise some people; don’t rule him out even in a reduced sprint (he has a great chance to follow up Gesink’s unexpected victory with one of his own). Teammate Sep Vanmarcke may be known more for his cobbled classic prowess, but his punchy style and his ability to get over the small hills should translate well here.

It’s hard to pick out one Astana rider as the most likely to land a good result in Quebec, but the team bring a serious array of talent to the race in Jakob Fuglsang, Enrico Gasparotto, Borut Bozic, Francesco Gavazzi, and Liewue Westra, and that impressive cast has among them the variety of skillsets to cover any scenario. Tinkoff-Saxo, with Michael Rogers and Matti Breschel, also has options for multiple outcomes. AG2R’s climber trio of Jean-Christophe Peraud, Christophe Riblon, and Romain Bardet should make this interesting, and don’t count out Hugo Houle either in his home country. Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti, JJ Rojas, and JJ Lobato, Cannondale’s Moreno Moreso, Marco Marcato, and Davide Formolo, and Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck are other talented riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Simon Gerrans
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Arthur Vichot
Other Top Contenders: Rui Costa, Alexander Kristoff, Gianni Meersman, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Simon Geschke, Michael Albasini, Tony Gallopin

Stay tuned for plenty more coverage of the GP Quebec and the GP Montreal, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of both races.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Cephas.

September 11, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: A Estrada › Monte Castrove. Meis – 157 km

Following John Degenkolb’s strong win on the Vuelta’s final real sprinters’ day, Stage 18 will bring to the fore those who prefer charging up a gradient. Very short at only 157 kilometers, Stage 18 nevertheless packs a punch in the finale. After they’ve spent most of the day riding on relatively flat roads, the peloton will have to climb the Alto Monte Castrove twice to close out the day. It’s short, but its 7% average grade will do plenty of damage, and with the finish line coming just over a half a kilometer after the riders crest the climb for the second time, only those with punchy climbing legs will have a chance at being positioned to contest the stage victory.

Since this finish is too difficult for the pure sprinters’ teams to drive the pace, the breakaway will have a chance at staying away on Stage 18, but if Movistar or Katusha decide to keep things on a short leash so that their GC men might have a shot at the bonus seconds on offer, it will be hard for anyone to succeed for afar here. Katusha and Movistar should be keen on controlling this one, because Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde have to be among the top favorites for stage honors. The narrow uphill road of the final climb suits Purito quite well, and it’s hard to imagine him not delivering an all-out attack in the waning moments of the race. Daniel Moreno has just the right skillset for the Alto Monte Castrove as well. Meanwhile, Alejandro Valverde packs quite the uphill kick himself, and he also has the strongest sprint among the riders in the GC Top 5. If he can hold the wheels of the attackers in the last ascent, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to nab a victory and valuable bonus seconds on Stage 18.

Dan Martin has already come close to a stage victory in this race using his top-notch punchy climbing legs, and he has maintained a high level of form even into the third week. He has a great chance here to finally pick up the stage win he’s been hunting. Fabio Aru may not have the Ardennes resume that Purito, Valverde, Moreno, and Martin have, but he is an elite climber who has a knack for exploding out of the pack on the very steep stuff.

Chris Froome is getting stronger every day in this race, and if he can drop his rivals with an attack from far enough out, he’ll have a shot at victory on Stage 18 even on a short climb like this. Race leader Alberto Contador, on the other hand, doesn’t need to attack, and therefore will have the luxury of being able to follow the wheels he wants to follow. That puts him into a good position to pick up another win in much the same way he won Stage 16, when he allowed Chris Froome to drive the pace until an opportunity to fly past presented itself.

Wilco Kelderman hasn’t had quite the level of form in this Vuelta a España that he displayed in the Giro, but he has a very fast finish and is a dangerous rider in a post-climb sprint. Samuel Sanchez, Warren Barguil, and Daniel Navarro are others on the fringes of the GC leaderboard who could hope to get involved in this sort of finish, while Philippe Gilbert and Michael Matthews will hope that they can hang with the GC-oriented climbers on the incline and outgun them in the final few moments for stage honors.

Should a long-distance move take the day, Ryder Hesjedal, Alessandro De Marchi, Luis Leon Sanchez, Adam Yates, Wout Poels, Alexey Lutsenko, Louis Meintjes, and Alexandr Kolobnov are among those who should be considered good candidates for success on a profile that turns hilly quite suddenly in the last 30 kilometers.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Joaquim Rodriguez | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 18, and there is plenty of GP Quebec and GP Montreal coverage coming very soon as well, so stay tuned!

-Dane Cash

September 11, 2014