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Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Foligno > Montecopiolo – 179 km

Most of the major GC action in the Giro so far has come as a result of crashes on constantly wet roads, but Stage 8 will finally offer the sort of uphill tests to set up the first major mountain battle of the race. The pink jersey contenders were able to enjoy some time in the backseat on Stage 7 while the sprint teams took up the task of pulling back the day’s breakaway (Nacer Bouhanni was the stage winner just ahead of Giacomo Nizzolo and Luka Mezgec). Hopefully the overall contenders got as much rest as possible, because Stage 8 closes out with a Cat. 1 ascent, a very tricky descent, and then a two-part climb, officially classified as a Cat. 2, followed by a quick descent, and then a Cat. 1 finish.

Coming in such quick succession, the already difficult climbs will inject serious pain into the legs of anyone who isn’t at full strength. The ascent up the Cippo di Carpegna, which averages nearly 10%, will wear on even the best climbers, but following it up with an irregular climb up to the finish at Montecopiolo practically guarantees that gaps will start to form. Even if a small group manages to hold it together at the front most of the way up, the final few hundred meters of racing kick up to 13%, which should force some separation as the very lightest climbers jump for the finish.

Naturally, with some serious mountains on the docket, it will probably be the serious climbers who challenge for stage supremacy. We haven’t had that much of an opportunity to see which of them are on the best form right now, but this stage should help sort that out. On reputation and ability, Nairo Quintana is the somewhat obvious choice for stage favorite. Having lost some valuable seconds to his biggest rivals across the TTT and crash-filled sixth stage, Quintana needs to get moving on pulling back time. He’ll benefit from the help of a strong Movistar squad, with the likes of Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton as great lieutenants. This is an important opportunity to for Movistar to set the tone as the Giro enters its more difficult second and third weeks.

Rigoberto Uran is another rider who will look to make a statement here. He’s sitting nicely in the GC standings thanks to his Omega Pharma’s strong Stage 1 performance, but this is a real test of form. He’s had a mostly forgettable season on the climbs so far, but at his best he can mix it up with the elite mountain goats in the peloton. Furthermore, he’s got an explosive uphill kick, and if he reaches the final few hundred meters in a group, he’ll love the opportunity to launch a move for bonus seconds.

BMC’s Cadel Evans is also looking great for GC at the moment, bolstered by an excellent early TTT and the chunk of time he picked up on Stage 6. Winning this stage will be a lot to ask, as it’s a real question whether he can hang with the best climbers in this race at this point in his career, but with his stellar Giro del Trentino, he looks to have timed his peak nicely this season.

AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo looked very impressive catching back onto the peloton after being held up in the crash on Stage 6. He’s an elite climber who will be looking to gain time at every uphill opportunity, and I think this one suits him nicely. As I mentioned in my overall race preview, I really do expect him to mix it up with the big favorites in this Giro, and this will be his first test.

With Nicolas Roche out of the maglia rosa picture, Rafal Majka is now the guy for Tinkoff-Saxo’s GC ambitions. He was never far from the front on the toughest tests of last year’s Giro d’Italia, and he has another year of experience in 2014. I like his chances, especially with a very strong team backing him. Then again, I also wouldn’t put it past Roche to be on the hunt for stage wins now that he’s a non-factor for the pink jersey.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo and Lampre’s Diego Ulissi are explosive young climbers who will hope to hang on through a very difficult day and then launch late attacks on the irregular final slope. As yet another rider losing time in Stage 6, Arredondo has the added benefit of no longer being a GC threat, and may therefore be given some leeway to strike out for stage glory.

Astana has a number of weapons to animate the climb, and I think they’ll be very aggressive with attacks. Fabio Aru is very well placed for GC, and he’s a great climber. Michele Scarponi needs to win back some time. Mikel Landa is always looking for opportunities to put his uphill ability on display. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal, Katusha’s Daniel Moreno, Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, and Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec are other riders to watch.

It wouldn’t be out of the question for the GC heavyweights to let a real outsider go off the front, but so many of them are already in a position where every bonus second counts, so I expect to see the bigger names contesting the stage win here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Rigoberto Uran | 3. Domenico Pozzovivo

Stage 8 should provide some great insights into which riders are on top form right now. Check back a few hours after the finish for the preview of Stage 9, which will throw another uphill challenge at the peloton. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 16, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Frosinone > Foligno – 211 km

Despite a few early hills on the profile, the GC men should have an opportunity to let the stagehuners take the driver’s seat on the Giro’s seventh stage. It will be a very welcome opportunity coming on the heels of the wildest day in this race so far. Late carnage on rainslicked roads on Stage 6 saw a number of riders hit the deck and slowed many more, allowing a small group that included BMC’s Cadel Evans and Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge to gap the bunch at the start of the final climb. Those behind eventually organized a chase, but the small group held their lead all the way up the slope, with VH stage favorite Michael Matthews sprinting to his first win of the Giro when they reached the top. With a few bonus seconds for his 3rd place on the stage thrown in, Evans picked up 53 seconds on the chasing group that included Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran, and a few other contenders, but it took some time for the full consequences of the day’s carnage to be known. Those consequences turned out to be dire for several very big GC names, including one of the biggest in the race: Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a broken finger and bruised ribs in the crash, and although he did finish the stage, he has abandoned the Giro d’Italia. It’s another heartbreaking turn of events for Purito, who was so hopeful of finally getting that first Grand Tour win in this event. Several other GC contenders lost varying amounts of time. To name just a few, Lampre’s Damiano Cunego and Astana’s Michele Scarponi lost about a minute and a half to Evans, and Cunego’s teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec lost closer to two minutes, but they were relatively lucky compared to Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche, who came across the line fifteen minutes down.

Purito wasn’t the only rider who abandoned in the wake of the crash-marred sixth stage (the list of abandons includes Purito’s teammates Angel Vicioso and Giampaolo Caruso, who are both out after suffering nasty injuries as well), so it will be a somewhat smaller peloton that sets out from Frosinone in Stage 7. There are a number of bumps along the road to Foligno, but none of them are particularly challenging, and the last one is crested with 40 km still to go on the day. Breakers will surely take their chances, but with a long, flat run to finish line, the sprinters’ teams should make a strong effort to pull back anyone who gets too far up the road. A breakaway victory is certainly possible, but I think a bunch sprint is the more likely outcome. Whatever the size of the lead group entering town, a nasty hairpin with about 1.5 km remaining will make for a fierce fight to get into position early, but the final kilometer that follows is not as technical as some we’ve seen so far; there is a gentle right turn with around 500 meters to go, but it shouldn’t slow down the riders too much. I don’t think the profile will be too much for any of the major sprinter names to handle, so after two days of finishes open to a considerably more versatile cast of contenders, I think we’ll see the familiar top-flight fastmen battling it out in the finale.

Cannondale has looked strong on every sprint stage of this race so far, but they haven’t been able to nail down their timing just yet. If they can perfect things here, Elia Viviani will be tough to beat, with an elite turn of top speed. He’s the first of my (probably unsurprising) trio of stage favorites. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni is the second. I think his leadout is something of a disadvantage, but he’s very good at fighting for his own position when he has to, and he already has a stage victory to prove that he is one of the fastest riders in this Giro. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo is the other rider I see as a top favorite. He has some excellent squadmates to deliver him to the finish at a very high speed, but he always finds himself just slightly out of position. I think he’s likely to get it right eventually, and I bet he’ll be flying over the final kilometer of Stage 7.

Luka Mezgec, now that Marcel Kittel is gone, will benefit from one of the best leadouts in the Giro d’Italia. He took the the final stage of WorldTour racing in 2013 in the Tour of Beijing, winning a sprint finish over both Bouhanni and Viviani, so I think he’s a real contender now that he’s Giant’s featured rider.

Sky seems to be behind Ben Swift on the flatter sprints in this race, with Edvald Boasson Hagen playing a fantastic second. The pair are quite formidable. I think they’d prefer a more challenging final half-hour of racing, but Swift was 2nd behind only Marcel Kittel on Stage 3 and will probably continue to place highly on even the flat days. As a note, Sky showed on Stage 5 that they aren’t afraid of sending one of their quick men into a break, and on this profile that has at least some potential for breakaway success, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they try again; Boasson Hagen is a particularly talented breakaway artist.

Pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews would absolutely prefer more challenges on the profile, but he’s likely to at least be in contention late again. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a pretty constant fixture in the Top 10s of this Giro’s sprint finishes. He lacks the team support to be considered a big favorite but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him nab one of these sprint stages with some luck. Tyler Farrar hit the deck hard in Stage 6, so his overall health is something of an unknown. Manuel Belletti, Davide Appollonio, Francesco Chicchi, Jetse Bol, Tony Hurel, Alessandro Petacchi (should he finally decide to contend a sprint), and Nicola Ruffoni headline the other names who could challenge in a bunch gallop.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Elia Viviani | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Check back after Stage 7 for the preview of Stage 8; Saturday’s racing is likely to provide some GC fireworks! If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 15, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Sassano > Montecassino – 257 km

The sixth stage of the Giro d’Italia ends with another hilltop finish. It should bring out many of the same names that featured in today’s fifth stage. In the early goings of Stage 5, a number of sprinters, including Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, jumped into a breakaway and stayed out front long enough to pick up intermediate sprint points. Eventually, the breakers were reeled in by an OGE-led peloton. Prior to the final climb, a crash on a rain-soaked descent caused some confusion and a split, but most of the major contenders made it back on to the pack as they started to push uphill. A few riders fired off attacks, but a high-tempo Katusha squad marshaled any long-range moves, and in the end, things were decided in an uphill drag race as expected. VeloHuman Favorites Diego Ulissi and Cadel Evans were 1st and 2nd to the line. Julian Arredondo just barely missed out on runner-up honors and settled for 3rd. Rigoberto Uran was 4th. Michael Matthews managed to make it to the final meters with the bunch and delivered a valiant 6th on the day, but it was the real climbers who shone brightest in the end.

Stage 6 is a long one, totaling 257 kilometers (10 km were added in a landslide-forced route change), but with only a few early bumps and then a very long stretch of flat, it’s unlikely that there will be much action until the road starts to wind upward toward the hilltop finish at the Abbey of Montecassino. A little over 9 kilometers long, it’s a steady 5% climb almost all the way up, but it flattens out in the final km. It won’t be steep enough to favor long-range attackers, but it will certainly drop the big sprinters again and is likely to set up a scenario similar to the one we saw in Stage 5. Those riders with a fast finish who are light enough to hang on during the climb will probably contest a sprint finale atop the Category 2 hill.

I think we’ll see many of the same names who fought for Stage 5 fighting for Stage 6. In fact, my three stage favorites are the same three from yesterday’s preview, albeit in a different order. Stage 5 winner Diego Ulissi is again well-suited to the finish, but he may not like the 250 kilometers that come before it, as he does tend to struggle on longer days. Also, the final meters are less of a challenge than he likes. Still, he showed top-shelf form by winning handily in Viggiano, and I think he’ll be another top favorite for a post-climb sprint on Stage 6.

He may be forced to contend with some real sprinting talent on a flatter finish. There are only a handful of fast men capable of contending in a traditional bunch sprint who have the chops to survive this climb, but they could find themselves fighting for victory here. The journey to the Abbey of Montecassino will be more difficult than the last climb of Stage 5, but the closing meters of Stage 6 are significantly less steep, meaning that if Michael Matthews survives, he will be more at home in the final moments. The pink jersey wearer will be the favorite from a reduced bunch if he can manage to hang on, and the way he stayed with the GC men on Stage 5 gives me confidence in his ability even on the longer climb tomorrow. With Ben Swift jumping into the break on Stage 5, I think Sky has determined that Edvald Boasson Hagen is the better rider to back in a bunch finish on these uphill stages, so if forced to go with one or the other I’d pick the Norwegian here, but both might make it and they’ll be the top names with Matthews if they are there towards the end of the day. Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin showed off his ability to outsprint Grand Tour competition after a tough climb when he won a stage in last year’s Giro. This finish will suit his talents nicely, though he has yet to deliver much this year.

The journey to Viggiano ultimately favored the climbers and GC riders over the sprinters, and I think this stage will again see a number of major pink jersey contenders fighting for bonus seconds. Most of them would prefer a steeper final kilometer but BMC’s Cadel Evans, who was so strong in Stage 5, is an exception. Compared to his rivals, I like him even more on a flatter gradient; when other climbers lose a lot of explosiveness, he still packs a nice punch. If the long day and final climb whittle the group down, Evans is a great bet. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego is another contender among the General Classification riders as the road evens out, especially if teammate Ulissi goes missing. Daniel Moreno, who might be favored here, continues to show that it’s all for Joaquim Rodriguez in this race. Purito will likely be at the front of the bunch in the Stage 6 finish, but I don’t think it’s steep enough for him to be a favorite; Stage 5 ended on a tougher gradient and he was only 7th on the day. Rigoberto Uran looked very sharp on Stage 5, but like Purito, I think he only has an outside chance on this flatter run-in. The same is true for Trek’s Julian Arredondo, who has been so great so far in 2014; I love his explosiveness and was very impressed by his Stage 5 performance, but this climb just isn’t particularly steep, especially not towards the top. Saxo-Tinkoff’s Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka and, AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo can also turn on the jets if they see an opportunity. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them trying to attack somewhere on this climb, along with the likes of Pierre Rolland, Samuel Sanchez, Mikel Landa or Fabio Aru, but I think they’ll have a hard time getting much distance at this gradient.

A number of punchy specialists will hope to feature after giving way to a group mostly made up of star climbers on Stage 5, though if you read the preview for that stage you probably won’t be surprised by the names I’ve got on my mind for this one, as it’s a very similar list. Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto was caught up in a crash on the fifth stage; the winner of the 2012 Amstel Gold Race likely sees this profile as another great opportunity. Trek’s Fabio Felline was another crash-slowed would-be Stage 5 contender who will try his chances again on Stage 6. Cannondale has a wealth of options for these profiles, including Oscar Gatto, Moreno Moser, and Daniele Ratto. Neri-Sottoli has a nice pair of options in Simone Ponzi and Matteo Rabottini. Pieter Serry of OPQS could give it a go, or teammate Gianluca Brambilla could try for another long one. Giant’s Simon Geschke could fare a bit better with the road flattening out late. As a final note, Garmin’s Nathan Haas spent Stage 5 clearly suffering from his spate of crashes in this race; it’s a shame, because I think he would be a great outsider here if only he were in better health.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Michael Matthews | 2. Diego Ulissi | 3. Cadel Evans

The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 7 will be up not long after the Stage 6 finish. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well!

-Dane Cash

May 14, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Taranto > Viggiano – 203 km

Stage 4 of the Giro d’Italia was a strange one. The abandonment of Marcel Kittel was the first big news event of the day. A fever laid the German fast man low, opening the Giro’s sprint stages up to a number of other contenders who had been relegated to also-rans by his presence early in this race. The loss of Kittel wouldn’t be the only big story of Stage 4: nasty weather hit Southern Italy as the contest kicked off, and the peloton decided that the roads were just too dangerous. The riders themselves decided to neutralize the early racing, and eventually the commissaires made the official ruling: times for GC would be settled at the penultimate lap of the finishing circuit, and then the sprinters would get their opportunity to fight for a win, albeit without any bonus seconds on offer. All of the major contenders made it safely to the new finish line, and then it was a mad final lap around Bari for the fast men. Nacer Bouhanni suffered a late mechanical but made his way (albeit with some moto-pacing) back to the bunch. Cannondale looked well-placed as the finish line neared, but most of their leadout went down in a sudden crash on the wet roads. From the carnage, Giant-Shimano seemed to emerge in the best shape, but Luka Mezgec dropped a chain in the final moments. Tom Veelers made a strong effort to pick up the slack on his own, but he was passed in the last few meters. Nacer Bouhanni took his first Grand Tour stage win, with Nizzolo just behind.

After three straight flat sprint finishes, Stage 5 will finally offer a venue for a new show. There are three categorized climbs on the course: the first, a Cat. 3, comes at the end of a very long stretch of uphill road, and is crested 138.4 kilometers into the race. It’s not a steep journey but it will inject a bit of tiredness into heavier legs. A little over 40 kilometers from the top of that ascent, the peloton will start the climb toward Viggiano. It’s a Category 4 affair into town and the first passage of the finish line, and then a circuit around Viggiano that involves a technical descent and a Cat. 4 climb to the line for the second and final time. The uphill finish is not an overly demanding one, but it’s likely to bring a mostly different cast of players to contest the victory than we’ve seen so far. From the bottom of the aforementioned descent it’s about 6.5 uphill kilometers to the finish line. The majority of the way up is taken at around 3%, but the final kilometer rises to 7%, which practically guarantees the Vivianis and Nizzolos will be outgunned by lighter types.

Not many of the sprinters who have been active on the opening stages have any real shot here. OGE’s Michael Matthews is an exception. He has had this stage on his mind from the outset. He is at his strongest in a sprint with a bit of a gradient when his heavier rivals are unable to match his pace. The big question for Stage 5 is whether the late 7% might be too steep. Past results would suggest that Bling excels in the realm of 4% and even 5%, but it’s hard to say whether he’s built for this steep a finish. The Sky duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are the other possible exceptions. Sky has backed Swift so far in this race and he, too, will love the chance to charge for the line without the likes of Viviani and Bouhanni alongside. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team behind EBH on this gradient.

While even the most versatile sprinters will be hard-pressed on the slope, it will be a welcoming challenge for a number of riders who specialize in finishing fast uphill. Lampre-Merida’s Diego Ulissi is the name that stands out the most. He will love the profile. He outmatched Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner Simon Gerrans in an uphill drag at the Tour Down Under earlier this year, and after a disappointing running in the Ardennes, I think he’s hungry for another win in his home country. The form is definitely a question mark, as he hasn’t picked up any big results in a while, but the skillset is almost perfectly matched for the finish here. Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas is a real outsider with the bookmakers, but he is another rider I like for this stage. He also made quite a splash at the Tour Down Under, showing on a number of occasions a faster finish than most expected, especially when hills were involved. Unfortunately, he went down in Garmin’s nasty Stage 1 crash and seemed a bit banged up, making his health the biggest unknown; however, he’s been finishing with the pack in the stages since, and he’s also had a rest day and then mostly neutralized stage to recover. If he is indeed close to 100%, I think he’ll be very dangerous against some better known names for Stage 5. Other specialists who will be targeting this opportunity for an uphill sprint include Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, Bardiani’s Enrico Battaglin, Trek’s Fabio Felline, Giant’s Simon Geschke, Cannondale’s Oscar Gatto and Moreno Moser, and Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi (who has looked great this year and will love a chance to show Astana that they made a mistake by letting him go in the offseason).

A number of General Classification contenders could be on the hunt for stage glory and bonus seconds, and I expect to see some of them at the front in the final moments. Daniel Moreno is perfectly suited for this finish, but Katusha has already had a number of struggles early in the Giro, so it could be all hands on deck for Joaquim Rodriguez. He prefers steeper, but he’s got a nice uphill sprint no matter the gradient. The same is true for Rigoberto Uran of OPQS. BMC’s Cadel Evans is surprisingly quick to the line even at lower grades, and he loves to fight for bonus seconds. Teammate Samuel Sanchez is a dangerous uphill charger as well. Haas’s teammate Ryder Hesjedal and Ulissi’s teammate Damiano Cunego could feature. Trek’s Julian Arredondo is another climber who shows a nice burst of speed when necessary.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Cadel Evans | 3. Michael Matthews
Outsider to Watch: Nathan Haas

The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 6 will be up not long after the Stage 5 finish. If you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis of the Giro, and of the Tour of California as well. Rohan Dennis won an important Stage 3 in that race today and took back some time against Bradley Wiggins on GC. I’m not previewing California but I will be tweeting plenty of pre-race thoughts and picks for the stages to come.

-Dane Cash

May 13, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Giovinazzo > Bari – 112 km

As expected, Stage 3 ended in a bunch sprint. Sky’s Edvald Boasson Hagen delivered an excellent leadout to teammate Ben Swift, and Cannondale’s Elia Viviani did his best to match Swift’s acceleration in the final straight, but Marcel Kittel came up along the side of the road and blew past everyone at the last moment. With a hundred kilometers to go he was several bike lengths behind Swift, EBH, and Viviani, but no head start could keep him from powering to victory. If it wasn’t clear enough already, Kittel showed on Stage 3 that he is miles ahead of the other sprinters in this race.

The Giro d’Italia moves into Italy for Stage 4. The peloton sets out from coastal Giovinazzo and takes a circuitous route that eventually winds southeast towards the town of Bari. After around 45 kilometers on the road, they’ll reach their destination, where they will kick off eight laps of 8.3 kilometers around the town. That makes for a grand total of just 112 kilometers. The very short day on the bike will be an extremely pacey affair. A technical circuit with some wicked twists and turns in the last two kilometers will make it crucial to be in good position before the final moments of the race. However, there isn’t anything even resembling a categorized climb on the menu; the country may have changed, but it looks almost guaranteed that the riders fighting for those final corners will again be the same sprinters we’ve seen at the fore for the last few days.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll point out that Marcel Kittel is again the huge favorite to take a sprint finish. He proved Sunday that he’s just too fast right now even when caught well out of position in the bunch gallop. I don’t think it’s likely that his rivals will get that kind of opportunity again. This finish is not completely suited to his skillset, as late turns will not allow power guys like Kittel to make full use of their top speed, but I’m not sure that will matter for the points jersey wearer. Luka Mezgec remains the strong second option for Giant-Shimano.
UPDATE: Marcel Kittel has abandoned the race due to a fever. His absence will give some of the other riders we’ve seen at the front the opportunity to contend for the win instead of runner-up honors. Luka Mezgec becomes the go-to rider for GSH, and a strong option at that.

Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani are again my two favorites to take on Kittel. This technical circuit suits Bouhanni very well: he’s very aggressive in a fight for position and isn’t afraid to take risks on the corners. That will be of paramount importance in the Stage 4 finale. If he can force his way into position for the last bends in the road, he has a shot at making the quick acceleration to the line in the final straight. Cannondale’s Viviani might be a bit more favored on a course ending with a longer drag, but he’s fast enough right now that he is still a top contender here. Cannondale continues to get to the front early; such a decision will make a little more sense on Stage 4, and if they can improve their timing just a bit they’ll be able to set him up nicely.

Sky’s Ben Swift was so close to victory in Stage 3, and his performance their suggests that he really can duke it out with the fastest guys here. Having such an elite leadout man in Edvald Boasson Hagen helps. With EBH to guide him on Stage 4, Swift is again a contender, especially with a very slightly uphill finish. I’m also not going to rule Sky flipping the script and backing Boasson Hagen one of these days. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo also has a very fast leadout (Danilo Hondo and Boy van Poppel), and he won’t mind a tiny incline either. His biggest challenge lately (and not just in this race) has been positioning. I’m interested to see what he can do when he actually gets himself into the perfect spot to launch his move, because in recent contests he has so often been just a little out of place in the final moments.

Maglia Rosa wearer Michael Matthews hasn’t been able to land in the Top 5 of a sprint just yet but a shorter finishing straight could suit him better. Alessandro Petacchi looked a bit more interested in Stage 3 than he was in Stage 2; he’s actually sitting 2nd in the GC right now, so maybe he’ll try for the victory and the bonus seconds in attempt to wear pink on Stage 5. AG2R’s Davide Appollonio outclassed some bigger names on Stage 3 and will look to do so again, though he’s somewhat disadvantaged by a lesser leadout. Same goes for Roberto Ferrari. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar, Neri Sottoli’s Francesco Chicchi, Androni Giacattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Europcar’s Tony Hurel, and Belkin’s Jetse Bol are other likely protagonists.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Elia Viviani
UPDATE: With Kittel out, Bouhanni slides into the driver’s seat of VH favorite with Viviani very close behind. I’ll name Giacomo Nizzolo as 3rd favorite.

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! You’ll also see plenty of tweets about the Tour of California, which kicked off with an exciting opening stage on Sunday and continues today with an important individual time trial. I am not doing previews for California, but if you’re looking for picks you’ll find them on Twitter.

The preview of Giro d’Italia Stage 5 will be up not long after the Stage 4 finish. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

May 12, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Armagh > Dublin – 187 km

The rain continued on Stage 2 but the sprinters were not deterred. A small cast of breakers including Maarten Tjallingii did a great job to stay out front till the very end, but the peloton reeled them in in the last few minutes. Cannondale and Trek took the front, and then Giant-Shimano took over, looking perfectly positioned for a Kittel leadout in the last kilometer. Orica-GreenEdge came around them late, but Marcel Kittel was unfazed. After the final turn, he sprinted up the left side of the road and no one could match his engine. He nabbed his first Giro stage win rather handily, with Bouhanni, Nizzolo, and Viviani behind. In 8th place on the day, Michael Matthews moved ahead of teammate Svein Tuft just slightly in the GC and will wear the pink jersey tomorrow. Ultimately, Stage 2 was a wet, nervous day, but the final results were unsurprising, with most of the expected names featuring in the sprint.

Stage 3 takes the Giro d’Italia into the Republic of Ireland, kicking off in Armagh but finishing in Dublin. It’s got a few early bumps (two Cat. 4 climbs) but once the race leaves Northern Ireland the road flattens out a fair bit. Without any major tests on the profile, the weather, potentially very windy and rainy, will offer the biggest challenge to the riders.

Conditions could make things unpredictable, but the bunch was generally able to avoid trouble on Stage 2 and will hopefully manage to stay clear of danger on the final day of racing outside of Italy. A bunch sprint is again likely, and with even fewer lumps and fewer overall kilometers, Marcel Kittel may be an even bigger favorite. The way he was able to dominate today’s finish inspires confidence in his chances of repeating. There is a sharp bend at about the kilometer-to-go point, but after that it’s a pretty clear run to the finish line, and it’s hard to see many challengers taking on the big German in the final drag. As usual, should he falter early in the day, Luka Mezgec becomes Giant’s go-to guy.

Unsurprisingly, and probably unexcitingly, the riders placing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on the first sprint stage will be my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th favorites for Stage 3. Nacer Bouhanni showed that he’s in great shape on his way to runner-up honors. He’s a powerful sprinter who will like the look of Stage 3. Giacomo Nizzolo appears strong and fully recovered from his early season injury, and his leadout is also very quick. As a note, his Stage 2 result bodes well for later in the Giro: I think he and Viviani are more likely to hang on through tough mountain stages than Kittel and Bouhanni, which could set up a few showdowns between the Italian fast men if/when their rivals abandon the race. Speaking of Elia Viviani, his Cannondale squad probably did a little too much work a little too early for today’s finish, and he still managed to come through for 4th, so look for him again tomorrow.

Michael Matthews will wear pink on the road to Dublin but I found his 8th place a bit underwhelming given his ability and his leadout’s excellent position. I don’t think he loves racing in the rain. We’ll see if he can improve his position tomorrow. Roberto Ferrari‘s performance was the opposite—impressive given recent results (or lack thereof) and Lampre’s unimpressive leadout. Another flat day of sprinting, shorter than today’s, will be appetizing for the 31-year-old. Sky’s Ben Swift continues to show just how strong he is right now, mixing it up with the very best in the race. Like Matthews, he’ll look to place as highly as possible on these days to prepare for later stages in which the small number of faster riders might be out of contention. He seems to be Sky’s go-to guy for the sprints ahead of the also fast Edvald Boasson Hagen. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar is another rider who will be in the mix tomorrow. Alessandro Petacchi, meanwhile, seemed content riding purely in a support role for Stage 2. With another windy day on tap, the OPQS rider might make a nice outside challenger, but he didn’t even contend today and might not for Stage 3 either.

Two of the three real outsiders I named in the Stage 2 preview finished in the top 10 (Manuel Belletti, 6th, and Davide Appollonio 9th). The third, Francesco Chicchi, came back from a very late mechanical to finish 12th, which is pretty impressive, though he did have a bit of team car assistance. They’ll be outsiders again for Stage 3, along with the likes of Bardiani’s Nicola Ruffoni, Belkin’s Jetse Bol and Movistar’s Fran Ventoso.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Giacomo Nizzolo

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race! The peloton gets a rest day after the Dublin finish. Keep an eye out for the preview of Stage 4, which kicks off in Giovinazzo on Tuesday. If you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

May 10, 2014