Heavy favorites Orica-GreenEdge probably didn’t need much help on Day 1, but they got it anyway, starting early enough to avoid some pouring rain. Their time withstood spirited efforts from Team BMC and Omega Pharma-Quick Step, putting Svein Tuft into the pink jersey for Stage 2. Movistar turned in a disappointing performance in the wet weather that left Nairo Quintana almost a minute back on rivals Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans. Uran and Evans have even bigger gap (about a minute and a half) on Joaquim Rodriguez, whose Katusha squad had a rough day. But by far the biggest story of Stage 1 was the nasty crash that took down Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin and three other riders. Martin lost control on what appeared to be a rainslicked manhole cover, and went down very hard, breaking his collarbone and ultimately abandoning the race. After a heartbreaking crash ended his hope of winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Martin’s fortunes in 2014 have turned even worse. The would-be GC contender (and member of the VH pre-race Top 10) saw the biggest goal of his season slip away in the blink of an eye. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal was not one of those who crashed, but the squad had already dropped one of their members earlier in the course, and as team time trials are judged according to the performance of the fifth best rider, Hesjedal and the others who survived the incident were forced to stop and wait for Fabian Wegmann to catch back up and bring their number to five before they could continue. Rolling across the line in last place and almost three and a half minutes down, Hesjedal’s GC hopes are already dashed as well.
After an eventful opening chrono, road racing begins in earnest Saturday morning. Stage 2 also begins and ends in Belfast. It’s a 219 kilometer loop with only a pair of Category 4 climbs to challenge the peloton. The profile won’t provide many opportunities for riders to get away, and this early in the race, GC teams will look to marshal breakaways quickly. However, the first sprint stage of a Grand Tour is always a hectic affair, and the jockeying for position will be aggressive. Furthermore, it could rain, and winds will be high on the coastal roads. Today’s conditions proved perilous, and not just for Garmin; no one else got into any serious incidents but a number of other teams had riders slipping and sliding around the corners. With a high intensity sprint stage on tap for tomorrow, things could get hairy. It will no doubt be a nervous journey from start to finish.
Should everyone manage to stay upright, this stage is very likely to end in a bunch sprint. Without many obstacles to slow him down, Marcel Kittel is the heavy favorite. Kittel was the best sprinter at last year’s Tour de France; in this Giro, without either of the sport’s other two top fast men, the gap to the next best sprinter is significant. He also benefits from a team completely committed to his cause—and GSH knows how to set their sprinters up for victory. In the event that Kittel does somehow get dropped before the final kilometers, Luka Mezgec is an attractive second option, on nice form this year.
The two men with the best chance to take on the GSH juggernaut will be Cannondale’s Elia Viviani and FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni. Viviani is coming off a Tour of Turkey in which he beat Mark Cavendish in two stages, so it will be interesting to see him matched up against another of the top finishers in the game. Bouhanni has already collected several wins this season, but most of them have come against lower level fields. We’ll see how he does against Grand Tour competition.
Michael Matthews will hope to be the next pink jersey wearer for Orica-GreenEdge. Prognosticators often focus on his versatility, but don’t forget that he really does have the top end speed to be in the mix on a sprint stage. The also versatile Ben Swift of Team Sky looks very sharp this year. On the other hand, it’s always a possibility that Sky will go with Edvald Boasson Hagen, also speedy. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo seems to be back on form after his collarbone injury, and he has a nice team around him as well. Alessandro Petacchi rides for an OPQS outfit that knows how to handle the crosswinds. Should the conditions shake up the state of affairs on the stage, Petacchi could be a dangerous contender, and coming off a strong TTT, there is a slight chance that he could find himself in the pink jersey if he is among those benefitting from bonus seconds on the day. Garmin-Sharp will be shifting their focus to stage wins now that Martin and Hesjedal are out of contention for the pink: Tyler Farrar looks much improved this season.
Unless the rough conditions cause some sort of major shakeup, it’s hard to see anyone beating Kittel on the day, and really hard to see anyone other than the above names pulling off that surprise, but for further outsiders, look to AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, Neri Sottoli’s Francesco Chicchi, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Manuel Belletti.
Welcome to the first of 21 stage previews for the 2014 Giro! In case you missed the overall race preview, you can find it here. As a quick note: I’ll be previewing every day of racing, all the way to Trieste, so you can check back every day for stage profiles and picks. There will also be plenty of live analysis on Twitter, so be sure to follow the new @VeloHuman for more.
The Giro d’Italia gets underway with Friday’s 21.7 kilometer team time trial. The stage begins and ends in Belfast. The profile is not particularly challenging, with a minor bump at the first time check as essentially the only topographic feature. There are a few twists and turns, but it should be a relatively straightforward affair. I don’t think the time gaps will be huge but some of the smaller, more climbing-oriented teams will have to fight to limit their losses.
As is becoming more and more frequent in these types of races, Orica-GreenEdge looks to be the strongest squad for the day. The Aussie squad takes a pretty focused approach to these contests, and it tends to pay off (it did at last year’s Tour de France). The likes of Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, Cameron Meyer, and Svein Tuft won’t let this one get away easily. The goal may be to put Italian rider Ivan Santaromita into the pink jersey on day one, and it’s hard to see anyone keeping OGE from achieving that goal.
Also bringing a squad of chrono specialists, BMC may have the best shot at surprising GreenEdge, though I think it’s an outside shot. Movistar, led by Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori, would be the third pick. I’d be very surprised to see any other team winning the day. Cadel Evans and Nairo Quintana stand to gain an early advantage over their rivals on GC.
Time trials rarely allow for victors to come from left field, so I am going to eschew picking an unexpected to squad to pull away with the surprise win because I just don’t think it’s going to happen. I do, however, think that Belkin will outperform expectations; Wilco Kelderman is a strong TTist and his support staff is mostly made up of riders who are also good against the clock. Sky, despite being in the rare position of not having a major GC candidate for this Grand Tour, should turn in a strong performance as well. Meanwhile, I suspect that OPQS will perform at a level significantly lower than we normally see from the team in this discipline, as they are missing most of their big engines: sans Tony Martin, Niki Terpstra, and Michal Kwiatkowski, the Belgian squad won’t be as strong against the clock as they usually are.
Early season tuneup races have done their part to offer insight into riders’ form in 2014, but the main event of spring stage racing is now here. The 97th Giro d’Italia begins in Belfast Friday with a team time trial. After two more days on the island, the Giro heads to Italy. Continuing recent trends, a difficult, climber-centric parcours has drawn a climber-heavy field to the race.
Vincenzo Nibali won last year’s edition with a dominant display of ability, finishing with nearly five minutes between himself and the next best placed rider, Rigoberto Uran. Cadel Evans took the final podium place of 2013. To earn their results, all of the riders braved extreme weather that forced a stage cancellation. Ryder Hesjedal (winner in 2012) and Bradley Wiggins both dropped out of the race before it reached its final destination. Difficult conditions are commonplace here, a feature of the race that, like the Italian Alps, must be overcome on the way to victory. Nibali will not be on the startlist this year, but many of the other protagonists of the 96th edition will be returning, as will the Martelltal-climbing stage that was unfortunately cancelled last year. Before I dive further into to the route, a note: VeloHuman will be previewing every stage of the 2014 Giro, so be sure to check back often for daily profiles and picks. The Stage 1 Preview is already up! Also, follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!
The Route
The Giro d’Italia includes an introductory team time trial, two individual time trials (one essentially a hill climb), eight flat or flattish stages, five medium mountains stages (almost all ending uphill), and five high mountain stages, each with summit finishes. The parcours favors the more climbing-oriented GC contenders over those who sacrifice uphill ability for chrono-power. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the finish and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints will benefit the explosive riders and fast finishers.
Stage 8 and the Montecopiolo will be an early test for the GC favorites.
Taking the race one stage at a time: the first week kicks off with a medium distance TTT that will create a few small gaps in GC before a trio of stages for the sprinters (riders will get a day off to travel to Italy for Stage 4). Uphill finishes on Stages 5 and 6 could create some light GC action. A hilly Stage 7 closes out the first week in advance of difficult mountain stages (8 and 9) in the beginning of the second week.
With so many days for the pure climbers, an individual time trial on Stage 12 will weed out a number of would-be GC contenders.
After a rest day, Stages 10 and 11 shouldn’t have many GC implications. The rolling 41.9 kilometer time trial that follows on the 12th stage will; it could be one of the most pivotal tests of the Giro. Stage 13 will likely be another day off the pink jersey hunters, but Stages 14-16 will throw three consecutive summit finishes at the peloton (albeit with a rest day before Stage 16).
The fearsome Monte Zoncolan on Stage 20 guarantees suspense right up to the end.
Riders will save what energy they can on a bumpy but likely uneventful (at least for GC) Stage 17. The Rifugio Panarotta climb that closes out Stage 18 is roughly 16 kilometers at an approximately 8% average grade. Stage 19’s mountain time trial will be 26.8 kilometers of Category 1 climbing. And, of course, Stage 20 will throw down the gauntlet known as Monte Zoncolan, one of the most brutal climbs on the entire pro cycling calendar. 10 kilometers at around 12%, the summit finish will be a final test for the top riders in the race before the sprinters get their last hurrah in Stage 21, a 172 kilometer ride to Trieste and the podium presentation.
There are certainly a few early tests, but the action will really pick up in the second week, and all but two of the final eight stages are rife with extreme slopes and, as such, GC implications. The winner of this race will have to string together quite a few consistently strong performances in a row to come away victorious. With so many uphill finishes, a strong team of supporters will be crucial, as will an ability to avoid misfortune. There really aren’t many stages on which it’s okay for a rider to have a bad day.
The General Classification Contenders
The 2014 Giro d’Italia will kick off with two out-and-out favorites who stand, at least at the moment, head and shoulders above the competition. First and foremost is last year’s Tour de France runner-up, 24-year-old Nairo Quintana. A climbing superstar in a climber’s Grand Tour, Quintana looks just as strong in 2014 as he did in 2013. Quintana has shown that his elite ability to deliver on the mountains day after day after day is going strong in 2014, with nice performances in the Tour de San Luis, Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Volta a Catalunya. With this parcours, he enters the race with the title of favorite. He has had some time off racing, but that didn’t seem to be a problem before last year’s Tour, so I imagine he’ll be ready to roll. What’s more, he’ll have the full support of an elite Movistar team from the opening stage of the race, which was not the case in last year’s Tour de France, where Movistar set out to support Alejandro Valverde before altering their plan midway through the event. Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori will help set up Quintana nicely in the team time trial, and then riders like Eros Capecchi and Igor Anton will be strong workhorses when the road goes skyward.
Quintana’s main challenger looks to be Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spanish climber has earned quite a collection of Grand Tour podiums in his past few years, but he is still seeking an elusive Grand Tour victory. He came close in this very race in 2012, losing out on the victory and settling for 2nd after losing too many seconds in the final time trial. The 2014 Giro d’Italia is about as well-suited to Purito’s skillset as he could hope for; one of the time trials is basically a king of the hill competition, the other involves rolling ascents that will still favor his characteristics. Purito looked brilliant in the Volta a Catalunya in March, but had a rash of misfortune to follow, suffering injury in a crash at Amstel Gold. The crash derailed his Ardennes campaign and left him with some question marks coming into the Giro, his biggest target of the year. He will have had a few weeks to recover by the time the race kicks off, and the flattish first few days will give him further time to ride back into form, but the concerns are there. Still, Purito is a fighter and I imagine he’ll be among the top riders in the race, especially with bonus seconds on offer. Against a strong Movistar team and a number of other contenders, he’ll need to be gunning for every finish line. Fortunately, he’ll have top lieutenant Daniel Moreno at his side, another danger man for bonus seconds. The pair make a fearsome team and give Katusha a strong 1-2 punch. I think they’ll make the fight for the maglia rosa a close one.
Former Tour de France winner Cadel Evans looked excellent in the Tour Down Under, then rusty at Tirreno-Adriatico, and then back on to form at Pais Vasco. He was the best rider at the Giro del Trentino, facing many of the same names he’ll take on at the Giro d’Italia. He took 3rd in this race last year, and he’s out to prove he has at least another year in the tank. Given his recent performances, I think he’ll put in a strong race, but on this unforgiving profile, he may have a hard time keeping up with elite climbers. He will at least have a strong second in Grand Tour podium finisher Samuel Sanchez, who looks good, if not great yet, this season.
He doesn’t have the name recognition of a former yellow jersey holder or Olympic champion, but Domenico Pozzovivo is my pick for the rider most likely to challenge favorites Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. The Italian climber put in a Top 10 performance at last year’s Giro, but the real show came at the Vuelta a España, where he notched a 6th overall and displayed a newfound ability to deliver a top-shelf time trial. Always strong uphill, Pozzovivo’s recent discovery of chrono talent, along with a fair bit of general all-around improvement, make him a dangerous contender. He has been hot so far this season, delivering top 10s in every race he has undertaken, including landing 2nd in the Giro del Trentino and then flying to Liege to notch a 5th overall just two days later. The biggest hurdle to overcome will be questionable team support: he will be leading an AG2R squad without many of that outfit’s big names. Still, I think he will challenge the very best in this race.
Rigoberto Uran was the surprise runner-up in the 2013 edition, a result that built on a 7th overall and a young rider jersey from the previous year. No one was able to match Nibali in 2013, but Uran came closest, even beating him to the summit of the Altopiano de Montasio en route to a stage win. He lost big chunks of time on the chrono stages, but performed remarkably well for a rider who started the race as a lieutenant to Bradley Wiggins. He rides for a different team this year; OPQS signed him in the offseason to be their main GC rider. Uran has had a rocky start to 2014, landing 3rd overall against some big names in the Tour of Oman but otherwise delivering forgettable results in Tirreno-Adriatico, Catalunya, and Romandie. Still, the Giro is his main objective and it’s a race he knows, and it is important to remember that he’d done basically nothing last year leading into this race either. He also put in a stellar performance at the final ITT stage in the TdR this weekend, hinting that he may be stronger than his recent GC results would suggest. With a great team of supporters that includes Wout Poels and Thomas de Gendt, I think Uran will find himself at the pointy end of affairs in Italy.
Garmin sends a former Giro winner (as recently as 2012) in Ryder Hesjedal, but climbing specialist Dan Martin is probably the more dangerous rider for the squad. He’s won some serious climbers’ races, but GC success in a Grand Tour has eluded him so far. With the opening few stages taking place in Ireland, this year’s Giro is his main target. Martin’s form was a question mark right up until La Fleche Wallonne late last month, where he dispelled all concerns with a 2nd place performance atop the Mur; he continued to display stellar form in a title defense at Liege, where a late crash ruined an almost certain Top 5 placing, and possibly even an overall victory. However, one-day races are not Grand Tours, and Martin has had a penchant for running into problems in the longer races. Allergies and crashes have derailed his attempts in the past. Still, Martin knows that people question his ability to handle the Grand Tours, and I think he’s ready to silence his critics. The form is there, and unlike many of the other contenders, he doesn’t have too many miles on the tires yet this season. I think a Top 10 is within his reach, especially without many long, flat time trial miles. Teammate Hesjedal will be hoping for a resurgence; he has done very little since his overall victory here in 2012. Flashes of form at a few races last year suggest that he may still have top-level ability somewhere hidden away, but a lack of results so far this year make me skeptical of his chances.
Like cousin Dan Martin, Nicolas Roche is another GC rider looking forward to the start in his home country of Ireland. The 29-year-old really reached another level in last year’s Vuelta, landing in the Top 5 and nabbing a stage victory. He’s been rather quiet so far in 2014, but the Giro is easily the biggest objective of his year. Tinkoff-Saxo has another weapon in Rafal Majka, who finished 7th in 2013. He looks to be rounding into form this year, and he’ll love the mountainous route. With the Roche-Majka 1-2, Tinkoff-Saxo will be very active when the road goes up, and even without many results to go on in 2014, I think the pair will put at least one rider into the Top 10.
Astana won this race last year, and they send 2011 winner (after Contador was stripped of that title) Michele Scarponi this year. He has had a number of good, though not great performances so far in 2014, and was a fine 4th overall in last year’s race. Decent, if not world-beating, showings seem to be the name of the game for the aging Italian climber, and I think it’s likely we’ll get another here. His team does send a very strong team of lieutenants/alternatives to liven up the ascents: Mikel Landa has looked strong this year and young Fabio Aru was great again in the Giro del Trentino. A climber-centric route favors their skillsets.
Former Giro winner Damiano Cunego finally looks to have re-found some form here in 2014, climbing very well in Pais Vasco. Though it has now been a decade since his Grand Tour victory, Cunego is still only 32 years old. The route, and potential bonus seconds, suit the veteran. Lampre teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec may actually be a stronger option. Long an also-ran for the Italian squad, Niemiec has quietly put together some great recent results using his well-rounded skillset; his 6th overall at the 2013 Giro was one of a number of strong showings that year, and he looked great in Trentino this year. Diego Ulissi will likely be hunting stage wins in this race, as he has yet to show the sort of endurance to contend for a Grand Tour GC, but with the Cunego, Niemiec, and Ulissi trio, Lampre has one of the best uphill squads in the race.
The list of fellow Italian cycling stars of days past making renewed attempts at glory has even more names: for one, Ivan Basso, winner of the 2010 Giro d’Italia, is also in attendance. Unlike Scarponi or even Cunego, he has not had many recent showings of form, and he looked off the pace in Trentino and Romandie. I also question his team support. He may struggle to hang with the likes of Purito and Quintana as the uphill miles wear on. Androni Giacottoli’s Franco Pellizotti is yet another aging Italian star looking for another shot at success. 3rd here in 2009, Pellizotti has delivered a handful of decent showings in big races in the last year, including a respectable 9th in Trentino in April. Another respectable showing seems within his reach at the Giro d’Italia, though I don’t expect much of a serious GC challenge.
Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman looked sharp in Paris-Nice this year before a mechanical derailed his overall hopes. He’s a strong time trialist who might prefer a less climber-happy route, but Belkin, with star Robert Gesink sidelined indefinitely for health reasons and Bauke Mollema en route to the Giro, has a lot of faith in their young rider. Climber Steven Kruijswijk is along as well. Trek Factory Racing is also placing their faith in new blood. Robert Kiserlovski is coming into his own, with Top 10s in Tirreno-Adriatico and Catalunya. He was actually 10th in the Giro in 2010. As a rider who struggles against the clock, he’ll appreciate the overall parcours, though even with its rolling profile, Stage 12 will likely put a dent in his chances for General Classification. Kiserlovski is one of a number of strong up-and-comers for Trek; star youth Julian Arredondo is taking on his first Grand Tour and will look to animate the race when the road goes up, though stagehunting is a much more realistic goal for the GT rookie. Riccardo Zoidl is another Grand Tour newcomer, a well-rounded rider who looks sharp this season. Trek may not have a big name in this race, but I think we’re likely to see their kit mixing on a few mountain stages and maybe even on the fringes of the GC Top 10.
Sky’s bid for GC rests even further on the periphery. Kanstantin Siutsou has a Giro Top 10 to his name (in 2009) and Dario Cataldo has come close in the past, with a pair of 12th places on his palmares. Unfortunately for the pair, this is not a parcours that favors TT specialists. Pete Kennaugh is a late scratch due to illness.
Other outsiders include Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, who has not shown much of his uphill ability yet this year, but who will like all the mountains if he can find the form. OGE’s Ivan Santaromita is a talented climber who has not had many opportunities to ride for his own ambitions in his career, but the Australian squad will support him in his home Grand Tour. Finally, Team Colombia’s young Fabio Duarte is coming off a very impressive Giro del Trentino and will hope to make an impression for the Pro Continental squad at the top level.
The Stagehunters
As climber-centric as the parcours appears, there are still a number of stages that look like they will end in sprint finishes, due to the fact that most of the days that do not end in uphill charges look to have profiles that the sprinters can handle. Coastal winds and nerves could play their part, but Stages 2-4, all undertaken before any real climbing challenges, look like contests for the fast men, and this opportunity for bunch gallop finishes so early in the race has drawn a fine list of sprinters. At the same time, the scoring system behind the red points jersey was changed this year to offer more points on flat stages, meaning that the points classification is even more likely to go to a sprinter than in the past, further incentivizing participation by the fast men.
The biggest name among them is Giant-Shimano’s Marcel Kittel, who won four stages at last year’s Tour de France. Giant sends a squad to this race that is 100% devoted to picking up stage wins, with Kittel as their leader and the very talented (and hot in 2014) Luka Mezgec for the stages where Kittel doesn’t make the finish line. This is a surprisingly common occurrence for the young German fast man, who sacrifices a bit of versatility for all that top speed. With the combined Kittel-Mezgec front, it will be very hard to beat GSH in the sprints stages. Kittel might be the favorite for the points classification if that competition did not require you to finish the race, but it does, and he could struggle to hold on in the grueling final week, especially with the Tour as his main objective.
Giacomo Nizzolo, Tyler Farrar, and Fran Ventoso will hope to challenge for sprint victories.
Cannondale’s Elia Viviani is my pick for top non-Giant sprinter, and as an Italian rider with a strong focus on this race, he may be more inclined to stick it out all the way to Trieste. Viviani had a good 2013, but he has been lights out in 2014, beating Mark Cavendish twice in Turkey. It looks like he’s peaking at the perfect time, making him the most likely rider to challenge the GSH sprinting juggernaut. FDJ’s Nacer Bouhanni has been on fire this year, winning stages all over the map, and he has the top-end speed to challenge Kittel and Viviani. Giacomo Nizzolo looks strong for Trek after a collarbone injury derailed his early spring campaign. Nizzolo can handle tough days in the saddle and will also look to hang on when his fellow fast men start to abandon. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews will lament the lack of more difficult hilly-but-not-too-mountainous stages that might drop his opponents and give him a chance to sprint from a smaller group, but as he showed in the final stage of last year’s Vuelta, he’s quite capable in a traditional sprintfest. Sky’s dynamic duo of Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are in a similar boat. Of the two, EBH is very fast but Swift looks like the hotter hand right now. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar has had a resurgent 2014, posting nice results in the classics, and he’ll look to find some tangible success here. OPQS sends Alessandro Petacchi, who still looks remarkably fast in the twilight of his career. Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari is a constant also-ran these days, but he’ll hope to do better this year. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli, Androni Giocattoli’s Manuel Belletti, Trek’s Boy van Poppel, Movistar’s Fran Ventoso, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio can hold their own in the sprints as well.
A number of punchy, aggressive climber types are on the startlist looking for stages where they can go long. Bardiani’s Stefano Pirazzi, winner of last year’s KOM competition, will almost certainly go off the front as often as possible seeking another mountain jersey and breakaway wins. Androni Giocattoli’s Emanuele Sella will also be looking to repeat an aggressive Giro campaign.
Riders like Diego Ulissi and Julian Arredondo have the climbing chops to hang with the GC riders on at least a few stages but may not actually contend for the overall classification, and as such, they’re likely to have opportunities to hunt stage wins; other strong climbers who fall off the pace for GC will surely be doing the same. Also look for Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Daniele Ratto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Omega Pharma’s Wouter Poels, Europcar’s Yukiya Arashiro, and Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, either on stages where punchy riders can match the GC men at a hilly finish or jump off the front of the pack.
Lastly, Adriano Malori of Movistar leads a small contingent of time trial specialists looking for success alongside the GC riders in both the team time trial and in Stage 12’s 41.9 kilometer chrono; squad mate Jonathan Castroviejo will be looking for the same. OGE sends a typically elite bunch to challenge in that discipline, with Luke Durbridge, Svein Tuft, Michael Hepburn, Brett Lancaster, and Cam Mayer all strong against the clock. Thomas de Gendt (3rd in the first time trial at last year’s Tour de France) may be focusing on the ITT as his main goal as well.
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General Classification
Winner: Nairo Quintana Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo Other Top Contenders: Cadel Evans, Michele Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran, Daniel Martin, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Rafal Majka, Nicolas Roche
Points Classification
Winner: Elia Viviani
I will be previewing every stage of the race here at VeloHuman.com, so if you’re looking for picks, make sure to bookmark the page; VeloHuman will bring you the stage profiles, favorites and outsiders for every day of racing. Now that you’ve read the overall race preview, check out the preview and favorites for the TTT on Stage 1! Also, there will be plenty more commentary and analysis on Twitter @VeloHuman. If you’re the type who can’t get enough cycling talk, you will be happy you followed. Hope to see you soon!
Welcome to the new look VeloHuman.com! After nearly a year, I’ve decided to freshen up the design on the site, with an eye for more efficient use of space and improved readability (try VeloHuman on your mobile device!). I couldn’t think of a more perfect time to initiate the redesign than in this brief moment of WorldTour downtime between the Tour de Romandie and the Giro d’Italia, which means that VeloHuman will have its brand new look just in time for the first Grand Tour of the year. Come back soon for the race preview, and previews of every stage. Enjoy!
A great classics season has come to a close. It seems like every race had a thrilling finish, and, amazingly, each top level contest was won by a different rider. As the final stragglers crossed the Liege finish line (check out the VeloHuman Ardennes week recap here, by the way), the pro peloton entered a three month period of pure stage racing, starting with the Tour de Romandie. Six days of stunning scenery running through the French-speaking region of Switzerland, Romandie has seen quite an impressive past few years: every winner since 2011 has gone on to win the Tour de France that year. A good mix of time trials and climbing makes this an attractive option for Grand Tour riders. Chris Froome won last year’s edition in commanding fashion, with top lieutenant Richie Porte placing among the Top 10 as well, one of the pair’s many impressive performances in 2013.
Stages 3 and 5 will bring the GC men to the fore at the 2014 Tour de Romandie.
A short prologue, a final time trial of only 18.5 kilometers, and no summit finishes practically guarantee a close fought race that will come down to seconds in 2014. Stage 1 and Stage 3 may be the best opportunities for the climb-happy types to create gaps, but they’ll need to be aggressive, and they’ll also need to descend well, given the steep run-ins for home they’ll face if they decide to attack on either of those days.
The Contenders
Last year’s victor Chris Froome would enter this race as the big favorite, but this season’s injuries and a very recent chest infection that kept him out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege raise questions. Sky’s insists he’s ready to go. It will all come down to his health, because if he’s recovered, a race in which one third of the stages are time trials is pretty much the perfect setup for a guy who is head and shoulders above his fellow GC types in that discipline. Sky teammate Richie Porte is in a similar boat, recently struggling with health issues but well-suited for the parcours should he find himself in renewed form. If Sky’s all-rounder duo are sufficiently recovered from their ailments, it’s hard to see around the team that has won this race in back-to-back years.
Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali was an 11th hour addition to the startlist, and one of the prime reasons I’m publishing the preview so late in the game! The elite all-rounder will relish the opportunity to face off against Chris Froome before the Tour de France, and he has a stacked team behind him. Nibali had a disappointing classics campaign but the abundance of mountains and time trials make this stage race more his style. Jakob Fuglsang is always a great second for the Italian Grand Tour winner. Janez Brajkovic (who has had a lot of success here through the years) and Tanel Kangert are additional members of a very dangerous squad.
Coming off a podium performance (and a stage win) at the Volta a Catalunya and a decent showing (6th) at the Vuelta a Pais Vasco, Tejay van Garderen is a top contender in a race with two days of time trialing. I found him a bit underwhelming in that discipline, and in general, at a Pais Vasco race that seemed to suit him, but he’s had a bit of time to rest and he’s building towards a July peak anyway, so I see him as a strong candidate for the overall victory here. Peter Velits is an excellent time trialist who was 9th in a Paris-Nice without an ITT, showing great climbing form in 2014—he’ll be a good second for BMC.
America’s other top 25-year-old all-rounder is another top contender here: Garmin’s Andrew Talansky will also appreciate the overall parcours. He has stated that this race is one of his biggest targets of the year, and he already has a history of success in the event—in 2012, he was 2nd overall to the man who the Tour de France that year, Bradely Wiggins. He rounded into form this year with a 7th overall at Catalunya. His combination of focus, tailored skillset, and past results puts him among the favorites. Garmin also sends Tom Danielson, 4th in last year’s edition, and the excellent Rohan Dennis, who is demonstrating a knack for success in shorter stage races early in his career.
Much like the aforementioned group, AG2R’s Jean-Christophe Peraud will be a tough opponent in a race in which time trialing is likely to be a major factor. His 3rd overall at Pais Vasco came on the back of a top-shelf day against the clock. Finding yourself on a podium ahead of Tejay van Garderen and Alejandro Valverde is no mean feat. He should continue his stellar form into Romandie. Actually winning a big race is a skill he is still finetuning, but with an open field and a parcours well-suited to his abilities, Peraud could start winning soon. He was 6th at Romandie in 2013, and looks poised to better that result this year.
Katusha’s Simon Spilak was runner-up in this race in 2013 (and he won a stage to boot) and overall victor in 2010. This is favored territory for the Slovenian all-rounder, and he’s coming off an excellent Pais Vasco, in which he nabbed 4th overall. Short stage races with a good mix of mountains and time trials are his bread and butter, and I see him fighting among some of the bigger name riders this week.
Time trial mileage will play its part here, but so will bonus seconds, and Lampre’s Rui Costa combines a decent time trial with an elite stage-winning/bonus-second-earning jump. He had an extremely disappointing Ardennes campaign, crashing in two of three races and coming away without a big result. However, he will be fresher than he might have been had he raced a full Liege-Bastogne-Liege, and the lack of victories in the rainbow stripes will motivate the always aggressive rider from Portugal. He has been 3rd in back-to-back Tours de Romandie, and he has won back-to-back Tours de Suisse, suggesting he knows what it takes to succeed in Switzerland.
The OPQS squad lining up for Romandie is very impressive, and full of potential contenders. Rigoberto Uran is not much of a time trialist, but he’s hard to beat on the slopes, with an explosive kick that he’ll likely be looking to use in Stages 1 and 3. Uran started off the year nicely by taking 3rd in the Tour of Oman, but then he seemed to fade a bit at Tirreno-Adriatico and the Volta a Catalunya. He skipped the Ardennes Classics this year to train, focused heavily on preparing for his main 2014 goal, the Giro d’Italia. He may be low on recent race mileage, but he’ll be rested and motivated to prove he’s back on form. Teammate Michal Kwiatkowski was a late addition to the startlist, and a major wildcard for OPQS. On paper, Romandie is perfectly suited to the wunderkind: he excels in time trials and he’s a very fast finisher who can get serious time bonuses, both skills that give him a leg up here. The only question for Kwiatkowski is whether he will be able to contest a race like this after going full-throttle in the Ardennes. He could challenge to win the whole thing, or he could just focus on stages, or maybe he’s just here to ride for his teammates. Tony Martin may be a legitimate GC contender with so much riding on the time trials. He can climb surprisingly well (he has always performed at a top level in the Tour of Beijing, despite a lack of chrono miles there). He was runner-up in 2011 to Cadel Evans, and with such a strong team to help on the climbs, he could be a serious challenger here. Thomas de Gendt is another good time trialist who is still looking for the climbing legs he once had; should he find them, he’s another nice alternative.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot impressed me with his performance in the Basque Country, even if the result was merely a 9th place. After Contador blew the doors off the contest on the first day, the race for the rest of the Top 10 essentially came down to hanging with the pack on the mountain stages and delivering a strong time trial on the final stage. Pinot did both. I think he’s rediscovered some of the form he seemed to lack in 2014. With a team full of opportunists like Kenny Elissonde, Alexandre Geniez, and Jeremy Roy, FDJ can send riders up the road to pressure on the other contenders.
Beñat Intxausti was 5th in Romandie in 2011. He hasn’t shown much in 2014, generally riding in support of one of Movistar’s bigger names, but he has a knack for succeeding when Quintana and Valverde aren’t around (he won last year’s Tour of Beijing ahead of the likes of Dan Martin and Rui Costa, and took a stage and 8th overall at the Giro earlier in 2013). Ion Izagirre put in a strong time trial at Pais Vasco, and his recent showings in that discipline (which helped him nab 2nd overall at last year’s Tour de Pologne), combined with proven climbing legs, make him another great option for the always strong Movistar team. With Nicolas Roche and Rafal Majka, Tinkoff-Saxo sends a powerful 1-2 punch. Neither rider has shown much yet this year, so form is something of an unknown, and I’m not sure the TT-heavy parcours suits them, but they’ll be a tough team to plan against on the climbs. Cannondale’s Ivan Basso has had a slow start to the year but with the Giro around the corner I imagine he’ll pick it up here. Mathias Frank will lead home team IAM Cycling in his home country of Switzerland. 2nd overall at the Criterium International, he’s showing an improved time trial, and he’s always been a strong climber. Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam will hope to make an impression with the rare opportunity to ride for his own interests. Trek’s hopes are in the hands of young Riccardo Zoidl, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this race.
Stagehunters
With a pair of days against the clock and a few stages that could end in bunch sprints, the Tour de Romandie is attractive some fine stagehunters. Marcel Kittel headlines the sprinters. He’s easily the class of the bunch, and he looks strong as usual this year after a dominant third Scheldeprijs victory early this month. Though he may not be daunted by the other sprinters on the startlist, he will have to work hard to make it over some bumps in the road, as every massed-start stage in this race has a few hills along the way to the finish line. Fortunately for them, Giant-Shimano has the fast-rising Luka Mezgec for the harder days if Marcel Kittel should struggle. He waited until the final day of WorldTour racing in 2013 to take his first victor at that level, but this year he has already racked up three WT stage wins, dominating the sprints in Catalunya. If Giant-Shimano doesn’t take a victory in Romandie, it’ll be a pretty big disappointment.
Taking on the Giant-Shimano sprinting juggernaut will be Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Katusha’s Alexey Tsatevich, AG2R’s Davide Appolonio, and Lampre’s Robert Ferrari.
Time trial specialists (beyond the GC guys) include world champ Tony Martin (who may or may not contest the overall), Movistar’s Alex Dowsett and Jonathan Castroviejo, and Orica-GreenEdge’s Svein Tuft and Michael Hepburn. The first day’s prologue is short enough that it might favor a powerful sprinter: don’t be surprised to see the likes of Marcel Kittel or Giacomo Nizzolo (2nd in the very short prologue in 2012) give it a go.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen Top 10: Andrew Talansky, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Simon Spilak, Rigoberto Uran, Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowski
I’ll be tweeting more live analysis during the race, so follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter! The next race on the calendar is a big one: the Giro d’Italia is just around the corner, and there will be previews of both the overall race and each stage, so be sure to tune in. Hope to see you then!
Three Ardennes week contests, three different winners, all of them among the biggest names in the one-day racing—Philippe Gilbert, Alejandro Valverde, and Simon Gerrans are all past Monument Classic winners, so it doesn’t get much bigger than that. Gilbert’s return to form was the big story of the beginning of the week: his win at Brabantse Pijl suggested that he had recovered some of his 2011 abilities, but he confirmed his rediscovery with a resounding victory over the Cauberg at the Amstel Gold Race. The recently revamped parcours looked like it might favor a final sprint, but Gilbert was just too hard to chase down on his beloved terrain. An aggressive Jelle Vanendert was a fine 2nd, and then Gerrans outsprinted Valverde and Kwiatkowski for 3rd in a surprising preview of the Liege-Bastogne-Liege showdown. Joaquim Rodriguez was an unfortunate casualty of Amstel, going down hard in an early crash.
Wednesday’s La Fleche Wallonne ended as it so often does in a climactic uphill sprint. Alejandro Valverde finally came good on months and months (stretching back to 2012) of elite form without a WorldTour victory. Daniel Martin roared back into relevance, nabbing 2nd place. And Michal Kwiatkowski, in 3rd, continued to display the sort of ability that suggests dominance in these sorts of races is not far away.
The grand finale in Liege came down to the final 5 km (just like Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne had); attacks from bigger favorites were quickly reeled in all day, but Giampaolo Caruso and Domenico Pozzovivo jumped ahead as the finish line approached and the chase to bring them back last until the closing moments. Dan Martin looked poised to bridge and possibly pass them just 300 meters from the finish, but he hit the dock rounding the last corner in a heartbreaking stroke of misfortune. Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, and Michal Kwiatkowski sailed past Martin and then the men up the road, and it was a sprint for victory, with Gerrans taking the win and his second career Monument after Milano-Sanremo. Valverde was 2nd. Kwiatkowski landed on another major podium in 3rd, but going wide around a crashed Dan Martin forced him to play catchup with Gerrans and Valverde at the very end, so I wonder what might have been for him as well.
Takeaways from the Ardennes Classics
There were plenty of surprise performances in the Ardennes Classics, but at the very top were names we’ve seen so often in the past, with a lot of similarity between the three races as well. All three basically came down to the last five minutes. All three were won by big-name one-day stars, over the age of thirty. The podium of the finale race, Liege, was made up of riders who had already stood on an Ardennes podium earlier in the week.
I suppose the results speak for themselves for race winners Gilbert, Valverde, and Gerrans. Valverde, especially, was on his game all week; interestingly, he won the race I would have imagined favored him the least. He has stayed in top-shelf shape for a long while this season, and now he’ll get some well-deserved time off to prep for the Tour de France. 4th, 1st, and 2nd across three Ardennes races is quite a haul for the 34-year-old.
Philippe Gilbert took a proud Amstel victory to put himself back among the favorites in these races but did fade a bit in La Fleche Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Still, winning Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold and notching Top 10s in La Fleche Wallonne and LBL are very worthy results, and they suggest that Gilbert has regained both form and confidence after a rocky period. He’s been around the sport for a while, but at age 31 he still has a lot of racing left in his career, and it’s good to see him righting a downward trend.
Simon Gerrans might have come up with a winning strategy for Liege after showing his form with 3rd place at Amstel: he skipped La Fleche Wallonne and recharged his batteries, and was the strongest in the sprint to the Monumental finish. It’s really been an amazing string of years for the Australian rider who started his career as more of a rouleur than anything. He completed the impressive achievement of nabbing stage wins in all three Grand Tours earlier in his career as a breakaway specialist, but he has developed into one of the premier punchy fast finishers in the sport. Since 2012, he has won two Monuments, two Tours Down Under, and two National Championships in Australia, in addition to a host of other victories and some time in the yellow jersey at the Tour de France. He does not appear to be slowing down even as he approaches 34.
In my opinion, Joaquim Rodriguez was the biggest loser of the Ardennes Classics, showing such excellent form at Catalunya only to fall victim to an unfortunate crash-caused injury at Amstel Gold. He had been focused so hard on Liege this year; it’s a big shame he was unable to contest that race. Hopefully, recovers quickly for his other big goal of the season, the Giro d’Italia. Teammate Daniel Moreno was unable to pick up the slack by repeating last year’s success; by most standards he had a decent Ardennes campaign as one of the few riders to be in the Top 10 of all three races, but three consecutive 9th place finishes are a disappointment for last years winner atop the Mur de Huy. Like Purito, Carlos Betancur was on fire early this season and looking set for big things in these races, for which he is so perfectly built, only to be laid low by injury. AG2R did not adjust well in Amstel Gold or La Fleche Wallonne, unable to pick up results there worthy of the year they are having, but they did make up for it somewhat by placing two riders in the Top 10 at Liege. Romain Bardet continued a strong 2014 with a 10th place, looking like a great bet for the future. Domenico Pozzovivo flew in from his 2nd overall at the Giro Del Trentino to pick up 5th on the day, quite a performance. He looks very strong for next month’s Giro d’Italia.
Daniel Martin‘s Ardennes week was quite a roller coast ride, and it ended on a cruel, sour note. He abandoned Amstel with knee issues, raising concerns about his health for the next few races, exploded up the Mur for 2nd at La Fleche Wallonne, quelling concerns about his health, and then just when it seemed he might be in for continued success at Liege, he went down hard in the last seconds of the contest. At least in terms of looking ahead, he does appaer to be very strong for the upcoming Giro d’Italia, but it’s hard to think of anything more demoralizing than what happened to Martin as the race came to a close today. Teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter was a bit of a happier note for Garmin; the 24-year old was 5th at La Fleche Wallonne and 6th at LBL, which is pretty darn impressive, especially given the starpower at the top. He’s been showing the sort of skillset that does well in these races, but until this week, he hadn’t confirmed that promise with results. In Martin (only 27) and Slagter, Garmin will likely feature pretty prominently in the Ardennes Classics for many years to come.
Michal Kwiatkowski was 5th, 3rd, and 3rd, second to only Valverde in consistent top performances across the week. On the one hand, two podiums (including one in a Monument) are pretty unbelievable for the 23 year old, and a confirmation of the amazing talent he has shown so early in his career. On the other hand, I don’t think anyone who has been following the sport closely really needs further confirmation of his talents, and he’s probably a bit frustrated to have come so close so many times (after being 2nd in Pais Vasco). He will take a break from racing before the Tour. Hopefully it will give him time to recharge and be at his best for the sport’s biggest show.
I can’t say I saw Jelle Vanendert‘s strong week coming. Tony Gallopin appeared to be the better option for Lotto leading up to the race after Vanendert’s relatively anonymous 2013, but 2nd at Amstel (ahead of Ardennes winners Valverde and Gerrans) and 6th at La Fleche Wallonne were great results for the Belgian. He’s really an Ardennes specialist, but hopefully we will see him with continued form in more 2o14 races with rolling terrain.
Belkin’s Bauke Mollema was unable to come up with a Top 10 at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he delivered his best Amstel and La Fleche Wallonne to date. The 27 year old has rallied wonderfully after a slow start to the season, and his reassuring performances come at a time of great uncertainty for a team that has lost Robert Gesink indefinitely due to a heart health issue.
I found Vincenzo Nibali‘s Ardennes campaign to be very underwhelming. He did not feature prominently in any of the three races. After a fairly anonymous first two contests, I figured he might be saving up for Liege, but he was unable to hold on when things started splitting up at the finish. I think he really wants to win that big one-day race soon, but the Tour de France is probably a bigger target for the 2013 Giro d’Italia winner at the moment. Rui Costa crashed out of LBL after missing out in Amstel and LFW. The World Champ will be very disappointed—he started the season hot at Paris-Nice but he hasn’t managed to deliver results in the past few weeks. He’ll look to the Tour de Romandie as his next target, and with Chris Froome something of a question mark with a chest infection, things could open up for the opportunist rainbow jersey wearer.
Trek’s Julian Arredondo continued to show nice form in 2014: he just barely missed the top 10, coming in 11th, at La Fleche Wallonne, and though he was ultimately unable to make anything happen. he was very active off the front at LBL. At a time when their big name climbers (the Schlecks) are really struggling, Trek must be pleased to have struck gold in young Arredondo. Another youngster who looked sharp was Cofidis’s Rudy Molard, among the top 20 in both La Fleche Wallonne and LBL. Results like that without much team support make him a name to remember in the future.
Share your own thoughts in the comments, or give me a holler on Twitter @VeloHuman! Also keep an eye out early Monday for the Tour de Romandie preview! It should be a great race. Lastly, the Giro d’Italia is right around the corner, and as usual there will be a big overall preview as well as previews of each individual stage, so make sure you tune back in to VeloHuman!
